| So how does this play out? 19:26 - Mar 22 with 2920 views | bluelagos |
If the DUP just refuse to turn up at stormont, what happens next? |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 19:52 - Mar 22 with 2107 views | Keno |
This could backfire spectacularly on them as they could be perceived as marginalising themselves, especially where the new deal seems to give Northern Ireland the 'best of both worlds'
Ironic that a pary with Democratic in their name are proving anything but [Post edited 22 Mar 2023 19:52]
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| So how does this play out? on 20:03 - Mar 22 with 2073 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 19:52 - Mar 22 by Keno |
This could backfire spectacularly on them as they could be perceived as marginalising themselves, especially where the new deal seems to give Northern Ireland the 'best of both worlds'
Ironic that a pary with Democratic in their name are proving anything but [Post edited 22 Mar 2023 19:52]
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So new elections and other unionists and the alliance party pick up lots of votes?
At that point the largest unionist party (TUV?) agree to take part in the NI parliament?
Do wonder if their hardline position is popular or not in the unionist community? We got any NI based posters with any insights? | |
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| So how does this play out? on 20:10 - Mar 22 with 2050 views | Keno |
| So how does this play out? on 20:03 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
So new elections and other unionists and the alliance party pick up lots of votes?
At that point the largest unionist party (TUV?) agree to take part in the NI parliament?
Do wonder if their hardline position is popular or not in the unionist community? We got any NI based posters with any insights? |
I think it plays out to the hardcore unionist, who are scared that their dominance of the province is coming to an end and may not even have the majority within the protestant community anymore
Lest we forget it aint that long ago May brided them with £2billion to support brexit | |
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| So how does this play out? on 20:13 - Mar 22 with 2037 views | blueislander |
| So how does this play out? on 20:03 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
So new elections and other unionists and the alliance party pick up lots of votes?
At that point the largest unionist party (TUV?) agree to take part in the NI parliament?
Do wonder if their hardline position is popular or not in the unionist community? We got any NI based posters with any insights? |
The UK government have said that will change the legislation so that Stormont can re-commence their assembly, and start governing. So it could be a massive Own Goal by the DUP, and hopefully lose them a load of support. |  | | |
| So how does this play out? on 20:24 - Mar 22 with 1983 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 20:13 - Mar 22 by blueislander |
The UK government have said that will change the legislation so that Stormont can re-commence their assembly, and start governing. So it could be a massive Own Goal by the DUP, and hopefully lose them a load of support. |
There's the matter of the good friday agreement, can't see how a govt could make changes without the consent of both communities in NI.
Surely the GFA wouldn't allow for unilateral changes by the UK govt? | |
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| So how does this play out? on 20:32 - Mar 22 with 1967 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 20:24 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
There's the matter of the good friday agreement, can't see how a govt could make changes without the consent of both communities in NI.
Surely the GFA wouldn't allow for unilateral changes by the UK govt? |
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/northern-ireland-fun
Not quite upto date, but explains some of the ways the govt functions now. Civil servants basically run it but can not make new policies. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 20:45 - Mar 22 with 1948 views | blueislander |
| So how does this play out? on 20:24 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
There's the matter of the good friday agreement, can't see how a govt could make changes without the consent of both communities in NI.
Surely the GFA wouldn't allow for unilateral changes by the UK govt? |
I recall that the UK Minister for Northern Island said in an interview a few days ago that they could legislate to restore the assembly without the DUP. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 20:52 - Mar 22 with 1931 views | Guthrum |
They already are refusing to turn up at Stormont. Have been for some time. |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 20:59 - Mar 22 with 1924 views | Guthrum |
| So how does this play out? on 20:24 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
There's the matter of the good friday agreement, can't see how a govt could make changes without the consent of both communities in NI.
Surely the GFA wouldn't allow for unilateral changes by the UK govt? |
The most powerful backer of the GFA is the USA, which is (especially at the moment with Biden in the White House) decidedly not inclined towards the hard-line Unionist cause. I doubt they would object to amendments intended to make it function more smoothly. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 21:01 - Mar 22 with 1920 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 20:45 - Mar 22 by blueislander |
I recall that the UK Minister for Northern Island said in an interview a few days ago that they could legislate to restore the assembly without the DUP. |
Blimey, sounds like a bluff but you never know... | |
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| So how does this play out? on 21:07 - Mar 22 with 1902 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 20:59 - Mar 22 by Guthrum |
The most powerful backer of the GFA is the USA, which is (especially at the moment with Biden in the White House) decidedly not inclined towards the hard-line Unionist cause. I doubt they would object to amendments intended to make it function more smoothly. |
My worry would be how hard line unionists would react to unilateral actions that placed Sinn Fein in govt. Am thinking UDF/LVF paramilitary guys rather than the hardline politicians. Are they still active at all? | |
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| So how does this play out? on 21:08 - Mar 22 with 1896 views | blueislander |
| So how does this play out? on 21:01 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
Blimey, sounds like a bluff but you never know... |
A government minister being economical with the truth? Shirley not ! | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 21:28 - Mar 22 with 1847 views | Lord_Lucan |
There is no devolved government |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 21:48 - Mar 22 with 1815 views | Guthrum |
| So how does this play out? on 21:07 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
My worry would be how hard line unionists would react to unilateral actions that placed Sinn Fein in govt. Am thinking UDF/LVF paramilitary guys rather than the hardline politicians. Are they still active at all? |
From what I've read, to a limited extent, but heavily involved in drug dealing and riven by infighting. Not to mention consorting with white supremacist groups in England. They could cause trouble, but the environment has changed and I doubt they'd get even covert support from British government forces any more (especially as they'd be fighting against the UK's policy aims). | |
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| So how does this play out? on 22:22 - Mar 22 with 1783 views | Lord_Lucan |
| So how does this play out? on 21:48 - Mar 22 by Guthrum |
From what I've read, to a limited extent, but heavily involved in drug dealing and riven by infighting. Not to mention consorting with white supremacist groups in England. They could cause trouble, but the environment has changed and I doubt they'd get even covert support from British government forces any more (especially as they'd be fighting against the UK's policy aims). |
Lets not forget that most of the issues with EU borders and the GFI agreement are the problems involved with criminal activities, mainly smuggling and drug running. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 22:29 - Mar 22 with 1782 views | tractordownsouth |
The DUP are a fascinating case study. They’ve had everything go their way for about 15 years with the unionist veto in Stormont, becoming the largest party and with the confidence and supply agreement in the 2017-19 parliament.
Brexit has completely blown it apart though. With the Irish Sea border NI was economically separated from the rest of the union which was their biggest red line and they have lost supporters to the TUV, who have basically adopted the Farage tactic and called the DUP sellouts even though they also opposed it.
But by refusing it and campaigning for a harder Brexit the DUP have put themselves at odds with the majority of Northern Irish voters on a key constitutional issue and power sharing collapsed. The last time power sharing collapsed Westminster was able to force through socially liberal legislation against the party’s will. So they’ve had a shocker the past few years.
Basically with both hard Brexit and hard unionism they’re trying to have their cake and eat it. |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 23:27 - Mar 22 with 1623 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 20:03 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
So new elections and other unionists and the alliance party pick up lots of votes?
At that point the largest unionist party (TUV?) agree to take part in the NI parliament?
Do wonder if their hardline position is popular or not in the unionist community? We got any NI based posters with any insights? |
Not NI based, but Ian Paisley was my dissertation subject and I have kept up with NI politics.
The Stormont Assembly and NI Government can only function, by law, with the participation of both the largest Unionist and Republican parties. Whichever has the most seats picks the First Minister, the other the Deputy.
If either pulls out, the whole thing is suspended.
Stormont has been in pretty much permanent suspension for years, due to a scandal around over-generous grants for ecological home improvements, overseen by Arlene Foster, who later became leader and therefore First Minister elect.
Fast forward through Brexit...
At the last Election Sinn Fein became the largest party over all, so would be able to propose the First Minister. The DUP are using every excuse to find a reason not to restore Stormont and the Executive because they don't want to serve under a Sinn Fein First Minister.
So whatever is proposed, they will find a reason to oppose it.
The short answer to your question is that the Ulster Unionist Party used to be the largest party, and for years had many grandee MPs who were part of the furniture. But Paisley's DUP first disrupted them, and then supplanted them.
Sadly the majority of Unionist voters still seem to want to return DUP MLAs and MPs because they are perceived as being better at "sticking up for" the Unionist community. But polls will also show that most in Northern Ireland still support the Good Friday Agreement.
The DUP supported Brexit, partly as an excuse to wave the Union Flag, and partly because they seemed to think that if Northern Ireland was out of the EU and Eire in it, it would act as an obstacle to unification. What they hadn't bargained for was the need to keep the border open (a requirement not just of the Good Friday Agreement, but of an earlier legally binding treaty between Eire and UK) means that Northern Ireland had to become a "special case" post-Brexit, and anything which makes Northern Ireland different to the other British nations weakens the case for Unionism.
Strategically they should have supported Remain, or been neutral, on the grounds that they were "happy with the current settlement, Northern Ireland's place in the Union, and friendship and good relations with the Republic of Ireland", but to say Arlene Foster is not the world's greatest political strategist is a gross understatement.
The Alliance party has marginal influence.
I would go so far as to say that a return to violence is more likely than the majority of Unionist voters abandoning the DUP and switching to the UUP, who have a formal bond with the Conservatives (who are officially "The Conservative and Unionist Party") because the DUP are able to sell the new agreement as a betrayal of Unionists by watering down the Britishness of Northern Ireland.
I was gobsmacked with the journey Ian Paisley senior went on in the last few years of his life. Change is possible. But anyone who has read The Good Friday Agreement knows that it achieved the near impossible, a quantum dual State solution, and only did so because of the political will of some characters with enormous charisma- Paisley, McGuinness, Adams, Ahern, Mowlam, Blair, Clinton etc.
And Brexit, as I explained ad nauseum under my old user name, p1ssed it all away.
Sunak's solution is pretty remarkable, but he is playing in a very different scenario now that the DUP are no longer the biggest Party and are quite happy to take their ball home so no-one can play. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 23:28 - Mar 22 with 1621 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 20:10 - Mar 22 by Keno |
I think it plays out to the hardcore unionist, who are scared that their dominance of the province is coming to an end and may not even have the majority within the protestant community anymore
Lest we forget it aint that long ago May brided them with £2billion to support brexit |
To cover the losses of Foster's disastrous renewables shambles, and then some. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 23:35 - Mar 22 with 1608 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 20:24 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
There's the matter of the good friday agreement, can't see how a govt could make changes without the consent of both communities in NI.
Surely the GFA wouldn't allow for unilateral changes by the UK govt? |
Correct. Good Friday Agreement requires consent from both UK and Eire for substantive changes. But if the change undercuts DUP, and enables a Republican to become First Minister then Eire have no reason not to support it.
However, as I say in my other response to you, I would expect that to be met with violence from the Loyalist (extreme Unionist) community, sadly.
There have been a few viable explosive devices planted since Brexit at key negotiation moments, and a high profile murder of a senior police officer very recently (organised crime has a high correlation in Northern Ireland with former paramilitary membership) so my fears are well-founded, I believe. But mainland media don't seem very interested in reporting these things and joining the dots. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 23:40 - Mar 22 with 1602 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 21:07 - Mar 22 by bluelagos |
My worry would be how hard line unionists would react to unilateral actions that placed Sinn Fein in govt. Am thinking UDF/LVF paramilitary guys rather than the hardline politicians. Are they still active at all? |
There has been a lot of infighting in both NI and Glasgow, and several deaths of prominent figures from the later Troubles/GFA negotiation period.
Do the current generation of political leaders have the same sway over the potential next generation of Loyalist paramilitaries? Sammy Wilson used to be key, but he is an old man now, and even he and Paisley couldn't stop the Shankill Butchers (if they wanted to- depends on the narrative you believe on that one). | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 23:45 - Mar 22 with 1582 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 22:22 - Mar 22 by Lord_Lucan |
Lets not forget that most of the issues with EU borders and the GFI agreement are the problems involved with criminal activities, mainly smuggling and drug running. |
No. The biggest problem is that the Good Friday Agreement had the dismantling of security infrastructure, for example border posts, as the quid pro quo for the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. If the UK Government had to rebuild border checkpoints the paramilitaries could say that they had broken the GFA and re-arm. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 00:01 - Mar 23 with 1554 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 23:40 - Mar 22 by ArnoldMoorhen |
There has been a lot of infighting in both NI and Glasgow, and several deaths of prominent figures from the later Troubles/GFA negotiation period.
Do the current generation of political leaders have the same sway over the potential next generation of Loyalist paramilitaries? Sammy Wilson used to be key, but he is an old man now, and even he and Paisley couldn't stop the Shankill Butchers (if they wanted to- depends on the narrative you believe on that one). |
Cheers for your posts, interesting stuff. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 05:09 - Mar 23 with 1412 views | Ryorry |
| So how does this play out? on 23:27 - Mar 22 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Not NI based, but Ian Paisley was my dissertation subject and I have kept up with NI politics.
The Stormont Assembly and NI Government can only function, by law, with the participation of both the largest Unionist and Republican parties. Whichever has the most seats picks the First Minister, the other the Deputy.
If either pulls out, the whole thing is suspended.
Stormont has been in pretty much permanent suspension for years, due to a scandal around over-generous grants for ecological home improvements, overseen by Arlene Foster, who later became leader and therefore First Minister elect.
Fast forward through Brexit...
At the last Election Sinn Fein became the largest party over all, so would be able to propose the First Minister. The DUP are using every excuse to find a reason not to restore Stormont and the Executive because they don't want to serve under a Sinn Fein First Minister.
So whatever is proposed, they will find a reason to oppose it.
The short answer to your question is that the Ulster Unionist Party used to be the largest party, and for years had many grandee MPs who were part of the furniture. But Paisley's DUP first disrupted them, and then supplanted them.
Sadly the majority of Unionist voters still seem to want to return DUP MLAs and MPs because they are perceived as being better at "sticking up for" the Unionist community. But polls will also show that most in Northern Ireland still support the Good Friday Agreement.
The DUP supported Brexit, partly as an excuse to wave the Union Flag, and partly because they seemed to think that if Northern Ireland was out of the EU and Eire in it, it would act as an obstacle to unification. What they hadn't bargained for was the need to keep the border open (a requirement not just of the Good Friday Agreement, but of an earlier legally binding treaty between Eire and UK) means that Northern Ireland had to become a "special case" post-Brexit, and anything which makes Northern Ireland different to the other British nations weakens the case for Unionism.
Strategically they should have supported Remain, or been neutral, on the grounds that they were "happy with the current settlement, Northern Ireland's place in the Union, and friendship and good relations with the Republic of Ireland", but to say Arlene Foster is not the world's greatest political strategist is a gross understatement.
The Alliance party has marginal influence.
I would go so far as to say that a return to violence is more likely than the majority of Unionist voters abandoning the DUP and switching to the UUP, who have a formal bond with the Conservatives (who are officially "The Conservative and Unionist Party") because the DUP are able to sell the new agreement as a betrayal of Unionists by watering down the Britishness of Northern Ireland.
I was gobsmacked with the journey Ian Paisley senior went on in the last few years of his life. Change is possible. But anyone who has read The Good Friday Agreement knows that it achieved the near impossible, a quantum dual State solution, and only did so because of the political will of some characters with enormous charisma- Paisley, McGuinness, Adams, Ahern, Mowlam, Blair, Clinton etc.
And Brexit, as I explained ad nauseum under my old user name, p1ssed it all away.
Sunak's solution is pretty remarkable, but he is playing in a very different scenario now that the DUP are no longer the biggest Party and are quite happy to take their ball home so no-one can play. |
Very informative, thanks.
Am now wondering what your old username was! |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 08:36 - Mar 23 with 1224 views | Guthrum |
| So how does this play out? on 23:27 - Mar 22 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Not NI based, but Ian Paisley was my dissertation subject and I have kept up with NI politics.
The Stormont Assembly and NI Government can only function, by law, with the participation of both the largest Unionist and Republican parties. Whichever has the most seats picks the First Minister, the other the Deputy.
If either pulls out, the whole thing is suspended.
Stormont has been in pretty much permanent suspension for years, due to a scandal around over-generous grants for ecological home improvements, overseen by Arlene Foster, who later became leader and therefore First Minister elect.
Fast forward through Brexit...
At the last Election Sinn Fein became the largest party over all, so would be able to propose the First Minister. The DUP are using every excuse to find a reason not to restore Stormont and the Executive because they don't want to serve under a Sinn Fein First Minister.
So whatever is proposed, they will find a reason to oppose it.
The short answer to your question is that the Ulster Unionist Party used to be the largest party, and for years had many grandee MPs who were part of the furniture. But Paisley's DUP first disrupted them, and then supplanted them.
Sadly the majority of Unionist voters still seem to want to return DUP MLAs and MPs because they are perceived as being better at "sticking up for" the Unionist community. But polls will also show that most in Northern Ireland still support the Good Friday Agreement.
The DUP supported Brexit, partly as an excuse to wave the Union Flag, and partly because they seemed to think that if Northern Ireland was out of the EU and Eire in it, it would act as an obstacle to unification. What they hadn't bargained for was the need to keep the border open (a requirement not just of the Good Friday Agreement, but of an earlier legally binding treaty between Eire and UK) means that Northern Ireland had to become a "special case" post-Brexit, and anything which makes Northern Ireland different to the other British nations weakens the case for Unionism.
Strategically they should have supported Remain, or been neutral, on the grounds that they were "happy with the current settlement, Northern Ireland's place in the Union, and friendship and good relations with the Republic of Ireland", but to say Arlene Foster is not the world's greatest political strategist is a gross understatement.
The Alliance party has marginal influence.
I would go so far as to say that a return to violence is more likely than the majority of Unionist voters abandoning the DUP and switching to the UUP, who have a formal bond with the Conservatives (who are officially "The Conservative and Unionist Party") because the DUP are able to sell the new agreement as a betrayal of Unionists by watering down the Britishness of Northern Ireland.
I was gobsmacked with the journey Ian Paisley senior went on in the last few years of his life. Change is possible. But anyone who has read The Good Friday Agreement knows that it achieved the near impossible, a quantum dual State solution, and only did so because of the political will of some characters with enormous charisma- Paisley, McGuinness, Adams, Ahern, Mowlam, Blair, Clinton etc.
And Brexit, as I explained ad nauseum under my old user name, p1ssed it all away.
Sunak's solution is pretty remarkable, but he is playing in a very different scenario now that the DUP are no longer the biggest Party and are quite happy to take their ball home so no-one can play. |
Remember many years ago meeting someone who worked in social care in NI. He told me that Paisley Sr (perhaps in contrast to public perception) was actually very good at helping constituents with their problems irrespective of which community they came from.
A friend went to his church once. Very dour and Presbyterian.
I think you're absolutely right about the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister. It would be a devastating admission that the province is demographically slipping away from them. However, the more hard-line they become, the more people are getting fed up with the siruation of no government in Stormont. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 11:26 - Mar 23 with 1133 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 08:36 - Mar 23 by Guthrum |
Remember many years ago meeting someone who worked in social care in NI. He told me that Paisley Sr (perhaps in contrast to public perception) was actually very good at helping constituents with their problems irrespective of which community they came from.
A friend went to his church once. Very dour and Presbyterian.
I think you're absolutely right about the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister. It would be a devastating admission that the province is demographically slipping away from them. However, the more hard-line they become, the more people are getting fed up with the siruation of no government in Stormont. |
Yes, Ian Paisley Snr had an excellent reputation as a hard-working constituency MP, and MEP, for members of both communities. He was a man full of contradictions!
Your last line throws up an interesting dilemma for many at the Committed to Hardline Unionist end of the spectrum: would they rather, as Unionists, have "rule" by a Conservative and Unionist Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from London, or by a Sinn Fein First Minister, with a DUP deputy, from Stormont. The answer so far is the former, but softer Unionists, Alliance supporters and Nationalists/Republicans are mighty hacked off with the situation and constitute the majority.
TUV are kind of fulfilling a similar function to Farage re the Conservatives from 2015 onwards: forcing DUP to be hardline for fear of an emigration of votes to the more extreme party.
It all adds up to an increasingly polarised picture, and it could just take one hothead with a gun (or even a knife and a taxi, with the Shankill Butchers legacy) to set in chain events that totally destroy the fragile peace. | | | |
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