| Take that, climate doom-mongers 22:59 - Mar 12 with 2505 views | baxterbasics |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 23:20 - Mar 12 with 2412 views | stickymockwell |
There's nothing to be smug about. If those figures are correct then that's fantastic and quite rightly the UK should be continuing on that path and reduce, reduce,reduce. The fact still remains that global temperatures hit the 1.5 degrees rise this year that was predicted for 2040 and the ceiling that we must keep under. |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 23:32 - Mar 12 with 2388 views | WeWereZombies |
I always knew they were eventually going to make the move from boy band to full on goth-metal... |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 23:53 - Mar 12 with 2353 views | Bugs |
How much of that carbon has been out sourced to China and other countries for materials we used to make but now import? I wouldn't be too smug until you see the whole picture. |  | | |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 00:31 - Mar 13 with 2313 views | baxterbasics |
Joking aside, it’s actually quite an interesting thread to read | |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 09:56 - Mar 13 with 1918 views | usm |
Good grief, the UK has done something good, that wont go down well on here!
I blame Maggie. |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:20 - Mar 13 with 1868 views | NthQldITFC |
To anybody who has ever worked in science of any field, and probably to anyone who even cares to think about it, this graph is extraordinary when one considers the size of the system (the surface of all of the Earth's oceans between 60N and 60S) and the momentous nature of whatever energy shift has occurred over the last year, to kick it so far away from the norm.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Unless there's something badly wrong with NOAA's interpolation system, we seem to have passed through one of Tim Flannery's 'magic gateways' and I'm not sure if anybody knows why, or what happens next, and when.
I have some sympathy with the 'it doesn't matter what the UK does' argument because in some senses it's true, but the important thing is not the direct impact we have, but the indirect impact in influencing other people and other, more significant countries. Until people understand that simple, selfless fact, we're on course for suicide. [Post edited 13 Mar 10:26]
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| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:26 - Mar 13 with 1812 views | DJR |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:20 - Mar 13 by NthQldITFC |
To anybody who has ever worked in science of any field, and probably to anyone who even cares to think about it, this graph is extraordinary when one considers the size of the system (the surface of all of the Earth's oceans between 60N and 60S) and the momentous nature of whatever energy shift has occurred over the last year, to kick it so far away from the norm.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Unless there's something badly wrong with NOAA's interpolation system, we seem to have passed through one of Tim Flannery's 'magic gateways' and I'm not sure if anybody knows why, or what happens next, and when.
I have some sympathy with the 'it doesn't matter what the UK does' argument because in some senses it's true, but the important thing is not the direct impact we have, but the indirect impact in influencing other people and other, more significant countries. Until people understand that simple, selfless fact, we're on course for suicide. [Post edited 13 Mar 10:26]
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Those graphs really brings it home. [Post edited 13 Mar 10:27]
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:29 - Mar 13 with 1777 views | DJR |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 09:56 - Mar 13 by usm |
Good grief, the UK has done something good, that wont go down well on here!
I blame Maggie. |
It was the "Dash for Gas" which probably started things but that wasn't done for environmental reasons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dash_for_Gas [Post edited 13 Mar 10:31]
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:49 - Mar 13 with 1737 views | Guthrum |
I do wonder whether we - and I'm talking globally here - are passing through "peak oil", or even peak hydrocarbons generally.
Not, as everybody used to think, because we are about to run out, but more due to them being superseded by cleaner and cheaper-to-run alternatives. China, for example, is investing massively in renewables and the high-capacity transmission systems to get the electricity where it's needed. Also in electric vehicles.
It's also why the Arabian oil states are furiously trying to diversify. They can see the writing on the wall. |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:50 - Mar 13 with 1725 views | NthQldITFC |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:26 - Mar 13 by DJR |
Those graphs really brings it home. [Post edited 13 Mar 10:27]
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The all-pervasive mantra of "Growth! - Consume! - Build!" is still being bellowed out by Commerce-Government and lapped up by self-deluding individuals at a time when we, totally fkn obviously, need to hit the emergency brakes, really hard.
Maybe a "Green Growth! Re-use! Adapt!" mantra will be workable in the future, but if we don't hit those emergency brakes really hard right now, worldwide, I wonder if we'll get the chance to find out?
All I see in general is governments going through the motions whilst trying to keep their Gross Destructive Practices up and individuals just pretending nothing's happening. "La-la-la-la-la, I can't hear you - what can I buy to make me forget all about it?" | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Public service announcement…. on 10:53 - Mar 13 with 1714 views | Bloots |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:29 - Mar 13 by DJR |
It was the "Dash for Gas" which probably started things but that wasn't done for environmental reasons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dash_for_Gas [Post edited 13 Mar 10:31]
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….this post definitely isn’t about any of our players.
Many thanks. |  |
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| They were more Tax Evaders than…. on 10:55 - Mar 13 with 1692 views | Bloots |
….climate doom mongers.
Never forget. | |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 12:34 - Mar 13 with 1566 views | geg1992 |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:20 - Mar 13 by NthQldITFC |
To anybody who has ever worked in science of any field, and probably to anyone who even cares to think about it, this graph is extraordinary when one considers the size of the system (the surface of all of the Earth's oceans between 60N and 60S) and the momentous nature of whatever energy shift has occurred over the last year, to kick it so far away from the norm.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Unless there's something badly wrong with NOAA's interpolation system, we seem to have passed through one of Tim Flannery's 'magic gateways' and I'm not sure if anybody knows why, or what happens next, and when.
I have some sympathy with the 'it doesn't matter what the UK does' argument because in some senses it's true, but the important thing is not the direct impact we have, but the indirect impact in influencing other people and other, more significant countries. Until people understand that simple, selfless fact, we're on course for suicide. [Post edited 13 Mar 10:26]
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This graph looks terrifying, but from what I read, there are reasons for it (as well as climate change). I found the quote below, it will be interesting to see how this develops -
Possibly new SO2 pollution standards for ships, which went into effect last year. Atmospheric SO2 reflects sunlight and reduces warming.
We're also on the El Nino portion of the ENSO cycle. And a large underwater volcano erupted which sent a large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.
And, of course, there's also the relentless slow increases which has been happening for decades from burning fossil fuels.
If the SO2 standards are most of the reason, we should see a permanent one-time shift. Any rise from a volcanic eruption should dissipate relatively quickly. The ENSO cycle causes pretty large temperature swings for up to a year at a time, but probably not this large. We should see some reversion towards the mean when the ENSO cycle moves towards neutral, which is currently forecast to happen late this year. |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 17:01 - Mar 13 with 1318 views | NthQldITFC |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 12:34 - Mar 13 by geg1992 |
This graph looks terrifying, but from what I read, there are reasons for it (as well as climate change). I found the quote below, it will be interesting to see how this develops -
Possibly new SO2 pollution standards for ships, which went into effect last year. Atmospheric SO2 reflects sunlight and reduces warming.
We're also on the El Nino portion of the ENSO cycle. And a large underwater volcano erupted which sent a large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.
And, of course, there's also the relentless slow increases which has been happening for decades from burning fossil fuels.
If the SO2 standards are most of the reason, we should see a permanent one-time shift. Any rise from a volcanic eruption should dissipate relatively quickly. The ENSO cycle causes pretty large temperature swings for up to a year at a time, but probably not this large. We should see some reversion towards the mean when the ENSO cycle moves towards neutral, which is currently forecast to happen late this year. |
That's interesting thanks. Is the rapid step change last March-June suggesting that less SO2 at the surface is affecting the raw data (some of which are taken by ships and others by buoys which may be close to shipping channels) and maybe NOAA haven't compensated for it?
High altitude reflection from things like particulates, SO2, clouds etc is great obviously, but if this is a localised effect around the thing which is gathering the data, I guess it would be showing us the real picture rather than anything else. But if that accounts for what looks like a nasty step change, that's good news.
There will be 10 or so ENSO cycles in the data shown in that graph and the current one was not massive, so I doubt that's got much to do with it. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 20:17 - Mar 13 with 1158 views | CoachRob |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 17:01 - Mar 13 by NthQldITFC |
That's interesting thanks. Is the rapid step change last March-June suggesting that less SO2 at the surface is affecting the raw data (some of which are taken by ships and others by buoys which may be close to shipping channels) and maybe NOAA haven't compensated for it?
High altitude reflection from things like particulates, SO2, clouds etc is great obviously, but if this is a localised effect around the thing which is gathering the data, I guess it would be showing us the real picture rather than anything else. But if that accounts for what looks like a nasty step change, that's good news.
There will be 10 or so ENSO cycles in the data shown in that graph and the current one was not massive, so I doubt that's got much to do with it. |
Sulphur reduction in bunker fuel has been highlighted as a possible driver of higher temps by James Hansen and his colleagues and their methodology is in this paper:
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
You used the term "localised effect" which is what we have with ship tracks, when we look at global scales we find symmetries in albedo in both hemispheres. More on albedo in this paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000449
There is also evidence that cloud size and reflectivity are constrained, essentially if we brighten one area it is compensated with darker clouds elsewhere. It is found it this paper
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/109/2024/acp-24-109-2024-discussion.html
This has implications for geoengineering techniques such as cirrus cloud dimming, marine cloud brightening and direct aerosol injection. Would any of this stuff make much of a difference at a global scale? The scientists that research these techniques are highly respected and fully aware of the dangers of these technologies, especially when coupled together.
Cloud feedbacks and planetary albedo are a nightmare and one of many things we don't fully understand, hence stop putting GHG's in the atmosphere so we don't have to contemplate speculative technologies. |  | | |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 21:17 - Mar 13 with 1067 views | NthQldITFC |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 20:17 - Mar 13 by CoachRob |
Sulphur reduction in bunker fuel has been highlighted as a possible driver of higher temps by James Hansen and his colleagues and their methodology is in this paper:
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
You used the term "localised effect" which is what we have with ship tracks, when we look at global scales we find symmetries in albedo in both hemispheres. More on albedo in this paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000449
There is also evidence that cloud size and reflectivity are constrained, essentially if we brighten one area it is compensated with darker clouds elsewhere. It is found it this paper
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/109/2024/acp-24-109-2024-discussion.html
This has implications for geoengineering techniques such as cirrus cloud dimming, marine cloud brightening and direct aerosol injection. Would any of this stuff make much of a difference at a global scale? The scientists that research these techniques are highly respected and fully aware of the dangers of these technologies, especially when coupled together.
Cloud feedbacks and planetary albedo are a nightmare and one of many things we don't fully understand, hence stop putting GHG's in the atmosphere so we don't have to contemplate speculative technologies. |
Excellent info as ever Rob, thanks. I'll do some reading tomorrow to educate myself further.
To jump the gun, are you saying that sulphur dioxide reduction at a low level in shipping lanes is thought to be the cause of the 'jump', rather than a global, high altitude SO2 reduction? If the latter, it kicked in remarkably quickly on that kind of scale, but on a local level in the area where some of the data is being collected it sounds more possible. And good news in the sense that there might not be a systematic underlying cause deep in nature if you like, but something we could maybe compensate for at the smoke stack?
As you say, playing with things we don't fully understand a bit and GHG emission reduction should be being handled as a global emergency right now. We should be on a war footing, a la Covid but much more serious. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 22:00 - Mar 13 with 1010 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 23:32 - Mar 12 by WeWereZombies |
I always knew they were eventually going to make the move from boy band to full on goth-metal... |
Well, Everything Changes eventually. |  | | |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 01:26 - Mar 14 with 896 views | WeWereZombies |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 22:00 - Mar 13 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Well, Everything Changes eventually. |
Everything Changes But DaveU... | |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 03:53 - Mar 14 with 860 views | Ryorry |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 10:49 - Mar 13 by Guthrum |
I do wonder whether we - and I'm talking globally here - are passing through "peak oil", or even peak hydrocarbons generally.
Not, as everybody used to think, because we are about to run out, but more due to them being superseded by cleaner and cheaper-to-run alternatives. China, for example, is investing massively in renewables and the high-capacity transmission systems to get the electricity where it's needed. Also in electric vehicles.
It's also why the Arabian oil states are furiously trying to diversify. They can see the writing on the wall. |
These sound potentially promising new energy sources (I'm not qualified to assess):
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/13/carbon-free-energy-fusion-
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/02/240208122031.htm |  |
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| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 11:23 - Mar 14 with 684 views | nodge_blue |
| Take that, climate doom-mongers on 23:20 - Mar 12 by stickymockwell |
There's nothing to be smug about. If those figures are correct then that's fantastic and quite rightly the UK should be continuing on that path and reduce, reduce,reduce. The fact still remains that global temperatures hit the 1.5 degrees rise this year that was predicted for 2040 and the ceiling that we must keep under. |
"interestingly" Bill Gates on the rest is politics podcast said its inevitable that we will hit 2 degrees warming and that we have to hold that level. [Post edited 14 Mar 11:24]
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