| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? 11:54 - Apr 4 with 5120 views | Aviator |
Looking at websites it seems we are odds on to get promoted. Does that mean I can get evens or above on us not getting promoted? If so, how do I do this?
I can't compute that people think we are more likely than not to get promoted. It's so stacked against us:
We are essentially a point behind Leicester with an inferior goal difference
Difficult run in.
Injury problems to key players. (Burns and Moore.)
Morsy likely to be suspended.
Poor form (yes we have won the last two but were second best in both games.)
Surely on any objective unemotional view we are not likely to go up. |  | | |  |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:46 - Apr 4 with 1760 views | ITFCson |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:38 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
So is that approximately 3/2 in traditional odds? |
Yep, pretty much spot on | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:48 - Apr 4 with 1750 views | Europablue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:09 - Apr 4 by BarcaBlue |
It's an ill-informed trolling question. |
It's pretty easy to confuse a pessimistic Town fan for a Norwich fan.
I totally appreciate what he's saying. Our run in looks quite daunting and we do have poor goal difference that I'm sure we won't be able to improve on enough. Leeds look like they are in ominous form and Leicester have a game in hand and surely can't continue on their poor run of form forever.
Other fans are always more optimistic about the chances of other teams. I look at Leeds every week thinking that they will win every match, but they have drawn some and even lost.
If Southampton are so great, you'd expect them to at least get a draw against Leicester or Leeds.
Also, if people want to say that we played badly in the last two games, the thing to remember is that we still won and if we'd have played well and finished better we would have won those games easily. Southampton are by far the best team that we had to play. Norwich is the next hardest match, and Coventry might be distracted by the FA cup, or tired from all the games they have to play.
Anyway, based on all the factors. I would say that there is nothing in it and all three teams could finish in any order. We have a points advantage over Leeds and a team spirit and form that cancels out Leicester's game in hand.
I honestly think | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:50 - Apr 4 with 1748 views | Europablue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:27 - Apr 4 by HighgateBlue |
We are top of the league. If we finish there, or second, we get promoted. If we finish 3rd or below, we still have a chance of promotion.
That is why the market (and it is a market, not a question of objective probability like the toss of a coin) considers we are more likely to go up than not. Indeed, that OPTA supercomputer thingy said that we have a 54%ish percent chance of finishing in the top 2. I appreciate the latter is simply an opinion based on a computer programme with lots of inputs.
If you are serious and want to bet against Ipswich going up, go to betfair or some similar exchange and lay us rather than back us. There are people currently willing to back us to go up and take 66% profit from you if we do go up. If we don't, you keep their stake. (If you're right, you keep £x, if you're wrong, you lose £0.66x).
I won't be laying us or backing us, I shall be trying to enjoy the ride! |
The best insurance is to bet against us, that way it would cushion the blow of missing out a little bit. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:51 - Apr 4 with 1742 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:50 - Apr 4 by Europablue |
The best insurance is to bet against us, that way it would cushion the blow of missing out a little bit. |
I do not understand this mindset at all. It's a game of emotions. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:57 - Apr 4 with 1727 views | Europablue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:51 - Apr 4 by J2BLUE |
I do not understand this mindset at all. It's a game of emotions. |
Personally I'd prefer the upside of betting for us, but if I were going to place a bet on promotion, I would have placed it before the start of the season, because we all knew that we would be decent and playoffs was always going to be on for us even if not many were looking at the automatic places. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:58 - Apr 4 with 1724 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:48 - Apr 4 by Europablue |
It's pretty easy to confuse a pessimistic Town fan for a Norwich fan.
I totally appreciate what he's saying. Our run in looks quite daunting and we do have poor goal difference that I'm sure we won't be able to improve on enough. Leeds look like they are in ominous form and Leicester have a game in hand and surely can't continue on their poor run of form forever.
Other fans are always more optimistic about the chances of other teams. I look at Leeds every week thinking that they will win every match, but they have drawn some and even lost.
If Southampton are so great, you'd expect them to at least get a draw against Leicester or Leeds.
Also, if people want to say that we played badly in the last two games, the thing to remember is that we still won and if we'd have played well and finished better we would have won those games easily. Southampton are by far the best team that we had to play. Norwich is the next hardest match, and Coventry might be distracted by the FA cup, or tired from all the games they have to play.
Anyway, based on all the factors. I would say that there is nothing in it and all three teams could finish in any order. We have a points advantage over Leeds and a team spirit and form that cancels out Leicester's game in hand.
I honestly think |
What is especially daunting about our run in?
Leicester have (H): 20th, 5th, 4th, 17th; (A) 19th, 21st, 8th
Leeds have (H): 13th, 17th, 4th; (A) 7th, 9th, 16th
Ours are (H): 14th, 9th, 22nd; (A) 6th, 10th, 7th |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 14:02 - Apr 4 with 1702 views | lowhouseblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
It's a genuine question! |
'poor form' ... we've won nine out of the last ten? |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 14:04 - Apr 4 with 1695 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 14:02 - Apr 4 by lowhouseblue |
'poor form' ... we've won nine out of the last ten? |
I wonder if 10 out of 10 is good form or just OK. Poor form from here in guarantees us top two! | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 14:25 - Apr 4 with 1662 views | CaptainAhab |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:35 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
Morsy is an interesting one. Obviously if we are still in the hunt for automatics we keep playing him. But say he's on 14 bookings and we're out of it - he remains firmly out of the picture! |
Hard to see him not getting a yellow on Saturday, and I wouldn't begrudge him it either! | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 15:42 - Apr 4 with 1599 views | smithy69 |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:10 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
Thanks, I can assure you I'm not trolling - it's a genuine question. Do I think we can get promoted: of course and I obviously hope we do. I just don't think we have a greater than 50% chance. For what it's worth, if I had to guess, I would have Leicester winning with Leeds second and us third. I think we would be unlikely to get past a well-rested Southampton in the play-offs.
So to clarify if I bet say £100 on Betfair for us not to go up how much would I get back? And is this for us finishing outside automatics or not going up at all.
Thanks. |
If you bet £100 on us not to go up - you would win zero mate | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 17:55 - Apr 4 with 1544 views | Ryorry |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:48 - Apr 4 by Europablue |
It's pretty easy to confuse a pessimistic Town fan for a Norwich fan.
I totally appreciate what he's saying. Our run in looks quite daunting and we do have poor goal difference that I'm sure we won't be able to improve on enough. Leeds look like they are in ominous form and Leicester have a game in hand and surely can't continue on their poor run of form forever.
Other fans are always more optimistic about the chances of other teams. I look at Leeds every week thinking that they will win every match, but they have drawn some and even lost.
If Southampton are so great, you'd expect them to at least get a draw against Leicester or Leeds.
Also, if people want to say that we played badly in the last two games, the thing to remember is that we still won and if we'd have played well and finished better we would have won those games easily. Southampton are by far the best team that we had to play. Norwich is the next hardest match, and Coventry might be distracted by the FA cup, or tired from all the games they have to play.
Anyway, based on all the factors. I would say that there is nothing in it and all three teams could finish in any order. We have a points advantage over Leeds and a team spirit and form that cancels out Leicester's game in hand.
I honestly think |
Sorry, but anyone saying "Poor form (yes we have won the last two but were second best in both games.)" isn't "a pessimistic Town fan" unless they're both severely visually & aurally impaired; and have also been living on a different planet for the past few months. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 18:35 - Apr 4 with 1522 views | BarcaBlue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:48 - Apr 4 by Europablue |
It's pretty easy to confuse a pessimistic Town fan for a Norwich fan.
I totally appreciate what he's saying. Our run in looks quite daunting and we do have poor goal difference that I'm sure we won't be able to improve on enough. Leeds look like they are in ominous form and Leicester have a game in hand and surely can't continue on their poor run of form forever.
Other fans are always more optimistic about the chances of other teams. I look at Leeds every week thinking that they will win every match, but they have drawn some and even lost.
If Southampton are so great, you'd expect them to at least get a draw against Leicester or Leeds.
Also, if people want to say that we played badly in the last two games, the thing to remember is that we still won and if we'd have played well and finished better we would have won those games easily. Southampton are by far the best team that we had to play. Norwich is the next hardest match, and Coventry might be distracted by the FA cup, or tired from all the games they have to play.
Anyway, based on all the factors. I would say that there is nothing in it and all three teams could finish in any order. We have a points advantage over Leeds and a team spirit and form that cancels out Leicester's game in hand.
I honestly think |
It's completely ill-informed regardless of whether the poster is pessimistic ora budgie or even both.
We are top of the form table and we've won 9 of the last 10.
All teams have important players out, it's normal, especially in April
We are not effectively a point behind Leicester, we are potentially a point behind but could be 1 or 2 ahead.
Morsy has shown he can manage his yellow card count, he may get unlucky of course.
The pressure of 6 matches and the prize at the end means every team has a difficult run-in, ours is no tougher than those around us. |  | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 04:21 - Apr 5 with 1473 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 14:02 - Apr 4 by lowhouseblue |
'poor form' ... we've won nine out of the last ten? |
Sorry, wrong choice of words. What I meant is that we have been putting in poor performances. For example Cardiff, Blackburn, Southampton. The teams we have coming up are (in the main) top end teams with good players. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 06:22 - Apr 5 with 1458 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 04:21 - Apr 5 by Aviator |
Sorry, wrong choice of words. What I meant is that we have been putting in poor performances. For example Cardiff, Blackburn, Southampton. The teams we have coming up are (in the main) top end teams with good players. |
Ok I’ll bite.
So our poor form is in fact 9 wins in 10 games results wise.
And performance wise our poor form is theee matches, two of which we won. The other being a game we were the better team in for 80 minutes and conceded twice in injury time. Even Blackburn we were the better team first half and Southampton the last half and hour was one way traffic.
Add those three together and that’s not even one full 90 minutes of ‘putting in poor performances’. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 06:37 - Apr 5 with 1452 views | pennblue |
> Surely on any objective unemotional view we are not likely to go up.
Well you are only really making that judgement down to the fact that our squad costs a fraction of Leeds + Leicester. Leicester have a tough run in too, and with the last 6 games to go, the nerves and tension comes into play too. They have a ton more pressure on them to go up than we do. We could quite happily take another season or two, to continue to build before going up, no sweat. Them however, have got huge wage bills and will be in a tricky position if they don't go up.
Or are you are taking that view based on the data? xG ?
So if you changed your strap line to say an 'unemotional uneducated view' then I would agree. But what is the point in discussing an uneducated view? It's like me talking about physics which I know nothing about, why would I? | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 08:06 - Apr 5 with 1385 views | GeoffSentence |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:27 - Apr 4 by HighgateBlue |
We are top of the league. If we finish there, or second, we get promoted. If we finish 3rd or below, we still have a chance of promotion.
That is why the market (and it is a market, not a question of objective probability like the toss of a coin) considers we are more likely to go up than not. Indeed, that OPTA supercomputer thingy said that we have a 54%ish percent chance of finishing in the top 2. I appreciate the latter is simply an opinion based on a computer programme with lots of inputs.
If you are serious and want to bet against Ipswich going up, go to betfair or some similar exchange and lay us rather than back us. There are people currently willing to back us to go up and take 66% profit from you if we do go up. If we don't, you keep their stake. (If you're right, you keep £x, if you're wrong, you lose £0.66x).
I won't be laying us or backing us, I shall be trying to enjoy the ride! |
There you go then assuming a 46% chance of not getting in the autos and a 75% chance of not getting through the play offs, our chance of not getting promoted is 34.5%. |  |
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