| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem 10:55 - May 20 with 5361 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
I'd have thought the world is over populated as it is, and with increasing automation and AI taking over jobs do we really need to maintain or increase populations?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72p2vgd21no |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 14:00 - May 20 with 740 views | DarkBrandon |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:17 - May 20 by J2BLUE |
Perhaps it's time for us all to benefit from technology like we were promised.
Tesco save 10 salaries with self service checkouts. Maybe they should pay 25% of those savings in extra tax.
Every time a human is replaced with a machine to save companies money it should be benefitting society as a whole. |
Well, assuming it ends up as profit, they do. Corporation tax rates are 25% |  | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 14:45 - May 20 with 676 views | NthQldITFC |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:54 - May 20 by phillymark |
It's about scale. Globally, the leveling off of the population is a good thing. However the differences between countries mean that regionally the problems can be huge. countries in stage 5 of the demographic transition have a greying population (eg Japan) and are going to struggle mightily to maintain economic strength without massive immigration. Countries in stage 2 or 3 are seeing populations explode still and this brings about huge problems for jobs, education, slums etc.
This is a fun website to play with to see all this
https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2023/ |
You can play a very childish game of "Which country's pyramid looks most like my c*ck" on there!
I'm UK. (but not quite so pointy!)
https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2023/ |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 14:54 - May 20 with 668 views | baxterbasics |
I believe estimates are the global population is expected to level off around 2050 and then start to decline.
It is a problem. Elon Musk has been quite vocal about this on his favourite platform.
There has been a real surge in what are basically 'anti-humanity' movements especially from the environmental angle. There's really no reason at this point to deliberately discourage having children in developed nations at least. There are enough resources and space, if only we learned to manage them a little better. |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 15:22 - May 20 with 636 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:08 - May 20 by StokieBlue |
It's a complicated question.
On one side, a decreasing population will help with environmental issues but that would only be the case if it was decreasing globally but that isn't the case - Africa is growing and a huge rate with countries like Nigeria expected to past the US in population by the middle-of the century and the continent to have a population similar to Asia by the end of the century:
NB: Important to remember these are forecasts.
With regards to western or more developed economies the issue is around how you support a larger population of older people with a smaller workforce and thus possibly less GDP growth. It's possible AI could cover this in some form (tax per bot or something) but it's all a bit unknown at the moment.
A smaller global population across the board would benefit the environment substantially but it's unlikely to happen any time soon, a more realistic outcome is the stabilisation of the population at around 8 or 9bn.
SB |
Saying Africa is growing at a huge rate is misleading. Their rate of increase, like the rest of the world have been declining for decades.
This decline is only likely to increase if trends continue to follow other regions. Here is Nigeria, as you gave them as an example, and Sub-Saharan Africa:
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 15:53 - May 20 with 575 views | StokieBlue |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 15:22 - May 20 by Kropotkin123 |
Saying Africa is growing at a huge rate is misleading. Their rate of increase, like the rest of the world have been declining for decades.
This decline is only likely to increase if trends continue to follow other regions. Here is Nigeria, as you gave them as an example, and Sub-Saharan Africa:
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I assume that shows fertility rate? In which case it's a fair point, I should have said population in my post.
In that regard, 4.6 is still a massive rate given the population of Nigeria is much higher now than when it was 7 (current annual population growth rate for Nigeria is 2.4%). Certainly agree that it's slowing but given a current population of 218m [1] and a birth rate of 4.6 [2] it's still going to increase massively from where it is which is what the graphs I posted were showing.
Agree that fertility rate is different to population increase though. However that population increase in many developing countries is going to more than offset the population decline in others.
SB
[1]. That population is the 2021 figure.
[2]. Google lists the fertility rate as 5.24 for Nigeria - not that different of course but it also shows it as 6.1 in 1961 so different sources seem to show a much slower decline. |  | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 16:15 - May 20 with 527 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 15:53 - May 20 by StokieBlue |
I assume that shows fertility rate? In which case it's a fair point, I should have said population in my post.
In that regard, 4.6 is still a massive rate given the population of Nigeria is much higher now than when it was 7 (current annual population growth rate for Nigeria is 2.4%). Certainly agree that it's slowing but given a current population of 218m [1] and a birth rate of 4.6 [2] it's still going to increase massively from where it is which is what the graphs I posted were showing.
Agree that fertility rate is different to population increase though. However that population increase in many developing countries is going to more than offset the population decline in others.
SB
[1]. That population is the 2021 figure.
[2]. Google lists the fertility rate as 5.24 for Nigeria - not that different of course but it also shows it as 6.1 in 1961 so different sources seem to show a much slower decline. |
Yeah, correct.
60s and 70s were still rising. 80s was the peak for the majority of African nations. So selecting the 60s does not demonstrate the actual rate of decline across Africa.
You are correct that we are yet to see it play out in Nigeria's peak population yet though.
4.6 is Sub-Saharan Africa. 5.2 is Nigeria. Assume Google is just pulling it from World Bank data, which is what I provided.
We can project that we will likely be in replacement rate territory within another 30-40 years in Africa, and that will be the highest figures unless there is another global shift. [Post edited 20 May 2024 17:06]
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