| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:15 - Sep 17 with 2861 views | MattinLondon |
It was bound to happen - a sensible country would hold up its hands, admit that leaving the EU and the single market hasn’t worked out and rejoin. |  | |  |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:19 - Sep 17 with 2836 views | vilanovablue |
Always going to happen as they kicked some of the border regulations down the road. Those are coming home too roost properly now. |  | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:31 - Sep 17 with 2793 views | noggin |
Get over it, or something 🙄 |  |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:58 - Sep 17 with 2717 views | MattinLondon |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:31 - Sep 17 by noggin |
Get over it, or something 🙄 |
Strangely, what with Keir Starmer ruling out rejoining, the Tories could mop up a lot of votes by stating that they’ll rejoin the single market and then the EU. Always thought that that would have been the only way for the Tories to have stood a chance of winning the last election. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:07 - Sep 17 with 2680 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
We are heading into an era of increased protectionism, and the US has been heading this way under Biden even without Trump. Much of it is being driven by nationalism, but geopolitical events (COVID, Ukraine, Iranian attacks of shipping) have also highlighted the vulnerability of our supply chains. Political tensions, and a hostile trading environment are also seeing Western firms increasingly withdraw from China (with Western FDI in China decreasing last year).
In my opinion there are upsides, protection of manufacturing jobs, reduced carbon footprint from localised production, and lowering the chance of price shocks. However, the UK is should be doing this from within the single market, as we simply cannot produce everything domestically, nor do we have much bargaining power. |  | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:17 - Sep 17 with 2639 views | Churchman |
Of course it won’t. And it will continue to worsen as EU business adjusts and settles to new sources and markets. By sticking in third country barriers, why would it not? For example, if you are say a Dutch farmer sending tulips, you will look for a market within Europe, even if the profit margins are lower. You know your product will get there and not be left rotting, at your expense, at the dockside.
Then you have the weighty cost of Inspection Posts, border staff, documentation, vets, warehousing etc etc. all this was known by 2017, but heads were buried firmly in 5he sand and still are. Of course we should rejoin the CU and Single Market at almost any cost. We would be rule takers and have no voice, but that’s the penalty for staggering stupidity. The benefits would outweigh the cost.
Lastly the tories had the perfect get out. Northern Ireland. Every conceivable solution was looked at and there just wasn't one. This was known by 2018. Imperilling the Good Friday Agreement was insane - but they still did it.
I can’t think of one benefit of leaving the EU. Control of our borders? Yeah, right.
It’s now up to Starmer to show what he’s made of and take some brave decisions to mitigate some of the damage. Words, sharp suits and earnest looks are not enough. [Post edited 17 Sep 2024 10:19]
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:27 - Sep 17 with 2586 views | Blueschev |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:17 - Sep 17 by Churchman |
Of course it won’t. And it will continue to worsen as EU business adjusts and settles to new sources and markets. By sticking in third country barriers, why would it not? For example, if you are say a Dutch farmer sending tulips, you will look for a market within Europe, even if the profit margins are lower. You know your product will get there and not be left rotting, at your expense, at the dockside.
Then you have the weighty cost of Inspection Posts, border staff, documentation, vets, warehousing etc etc. all this was known by 2017, but heads were buried firmly in 5he sand and still are. Of course we should rejoin the CU and Single Market at almost any cost. We would be rule takers and have no voice, but that’s the penalty for staggering stupidity. The benefits would outweigh the cost.
Lastly the tories had the perfect get out. Northern Ireland. Every conceivable solution was looked at and there just wasn't one. This was known by 2018. Imperilling the Good Friday Agreement was insane - but they still did it.
I can’t think of one benefit of leaving the EU. Control of our borders? Yeah, right.
It’s now up to Starmer to show what he’s made of and take some brave decisions to mitigate some of the damage. Words, sharp suits and earnest looks are not enough. [Post edited 17 Sep 2024 10:19]
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The consequences of leaving the Customs Union were known, or were at least glaringly obvious way before the referendum. You simply had to look at the trade procedures between us and non-EU countries and realise that when we left it would be the same with the EU. All this nonsense about how the Germans would still want to sell us their cars blah blah blah was thoughtless hot air from people who hadn't bothered to look in to practicalities of what they were proposing. And having worked in the sector for many years I can tell you that the majority of politicians have no clue about freight / logistics / international trade. |  | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:30 - Sep 17 with 2551 views | lowhouseblue |
can that possibly be a surprise to anyone? that you leave a customs union and your trade within that area falls seems to be pretty basic stuff. a more interesting question would be what has happened to total trade - has non EU trade replaced lost EU trade. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:39 - Sep 17 with 2521 views | Guthrum |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:15 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
It was bound to happen - a sensible country would hold up its hands, admit that leaving the EU and the single market hasn’t worked out and rejoin. |
Rejoining wholesale is a tricky prospect. All the opt-outs and special conditions we'd gained over the decades would not simply be given back.
One particularly difficult issue being the single currency. |  |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:44 - Sep 17 with 2491 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:19 - Sep 17 by vilanovablue |
Always going to happen as they kicked some of the border regulations down the road. Those are coming home too roost properly now. |
They've just kicked the fruit and veg ones down the road again, so there's still some more roosting further down the line - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/16/uk-post-brexit-fruit-and-vegeta
Tariffs on imports of electric cars delayed until 2027 too.
i expect some of these delays may end up being continually kicked down the road until such time we forge closer links. But that won't happen until we're allowed to be adults over the whole issue. |  |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:44 - Sep 17 with 2489 views | Blueschev |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:39 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
Rejoining wholesale is a tricky prospect. All the opt-outs and special conditions we'd gained over the decades would not simply be given back.
One particularly difficult issue being the single currency. |
Starmer is already getting slaughtered in the right wing press. Imagine their reaction were he to suggest re-joining the EU. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:46 - Sep 17 with 2480 views | MattinLondon |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:39 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
Rejoining wholesale is a tricky prospect. All the opt-outs and special conditions we'd gained over the decades would not simply be given back.
One particularly difficult issue being the single currency. |
Poland has yet to adopt the Euro - its something which the country could fudge until it was felt that popular opinion had little objection to it.
The opt-outs would be much harder to claw back. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:47 - Sep 17 with 2465 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 09:58 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
Strangely, what with Keir Starmer ruling out rejoining, the Tories could mop up a lot of votes by stating that they’ll rejoin the single market and then the EU. Always thought that that would have been the only way for the Tories to have stood a chance of winning the last election. |
And wouldn't that be perverse? I wouldn't rule it out. It's the farce that keeps on giving. They'd need to start their client press ramping up a campaign to re-join soon though, as it'd take a few years to to turn their supporters around. [Post edited 17 Sep 2024 10:47]
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:49 - Sep 17 with 2433 views | Blueschev |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:44 - Sep 17 by Swansea_Blue |
They've just kicked the fruit and veg ones down the road again, so there's still some more roosting further down the line - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/16/uk-post-brexit-fruit-and-vegeta
Tariffs on imports of electric cars delayed until 2027 too.
i expect some of these delays may end up being continually kicked down the road until such time we forge closer links. But that won't happen until we're allowed to be adults over the whole issue. |
If the Government introduced checks on fruit and veg from the EU that matched those of non-EU countries Dover would grind to a halt. There simply isn't the infrastructure to implement them, not to mention the staff. It will be continually kicked in to the long grass. [Post edited 17 Sep 2024 10:51]
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:51 - Sep 17 with 2409 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:49 - Sep 17 by Blueschev |
If the Government introduced checks on fruit and veg from the EU that matched those of non-EU countries Dover would grind to a halt. There simply isn't the infrastructure to implement them, not to mention the staff. It will be continually kicked in to the long grass. [Post edited 17 Sep 2024 10:51]
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It'd be nice to get the M20 back as well. It's still coned off on one carriageway and a traffic bottleneck trying to get to the Tunnel/ports.
Make The M20 Great Again! | |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:10 - Sep 17 with 2273 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Jacob Rees-Mogg would say this is because so many UK companies are not taking advantage of the sunny uplands.
One of which of course is to open a Euro-hub in the EU. Rees-Mogg is far from the only one to do this. | |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:27 - Sep 17 with 2215 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:46 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
Poland has yet to adopt the Euro - its something which the country could fudge until it was felt that popular opinion had little objection to it.
The opt-outs would be much harder to claw back. |
Simple - join the Single Market where there’s no requirement to be in the EUR. It’d be far less politically toxic too.
If we rejoined the EU we wouldn’t pass any of the financial and monetary requirements at this stage anyway (particularly inflation and budget deficit). Other than a formal requirement on paper when joining, I don’t think there would be any expedience for us to actually implement it - Germany and France would not be super enthusiastic about such a large economy (likely to be at loggerheads) adopting. Monetary policy is already strained in the Eurozone- for big exporters like Germany it makes sense for the Euro not to be overly strong. For those with a trade deficit and large importers (eg UK, some of southern Europe) the desire is a strong Euro. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:29 - Sep 17 with 2187 views | MattinLondon |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:51 - Sep 17 by Swansea_Blue |
It'd be nice to get the M20 back as well. It's still coned off on one carriageway and a traffic bottleneck trying to get to the Tunnel/ports.
Make The M20 Great Again! |
Can we paint it red, white and blue? | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:31 - Sep 17 with 2168 views | Guthrum |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:46 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
Poland has yet to adopt the Euro - its something which the country could fudge until it was felt that popular opinion had little objection to it.
The opt-outs would be much harder to claw back. |
Poland joined the EU in 2004, a much different world. Moreover, they didn't leave amid a welter of bad feeling beforehand. | |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:33 - Sep 17 with 2141 views | nodge_blue |
Hardly anyone makes a case for this current version of Brexit. They either want a more extreme Truss type variant or they want back into the EU.
It makes you wonder how long we will persist in this limbo land of it not suiting anybody. |  |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:39 - Sep 17 with 2090 views | NorthLondonBlue2 |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 10:46 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
Poland has yet to adopt the Euro - its something which the country could fudge until it was felt that popular opinion had little objection to it.
The opt-outs would be much harder to claw back. |
I think that's right. Sweden and Denmark are also EU member states which have not adopted the Euro, although Finland has. It's quite possible to commit to joining and kick it into the long grass forever.
This may be a London-centric comment, but I really don't think the sentimentality attached to the pound is as strong as it was. A central london cafe I was in yesterday refused to take cash and contactless payment is basically the norm everywhere. If we were to switch to Euros, there would be no real effect, other than the benefit of readily appreciating price differences and increasing price competition across a whole range of goods within the single market. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:42 - Sep 17 with 2067 views | Guthrum |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:27 - Sep 17 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Simple - join the Single Market where there’s no requirement to be in the EUR. It’d be far less politically toxic too.
If we rejoined the EU we wouldn’t pass any of the financial and monetary requirements at this stage anyway (particularly inflation and budget deficit). Other than a formal requirement on paper when joining, I don’t think there would be any expedience for us to actually implement it - Germany and France would not be super enthusiastic about such a large economy (likely to be at loggerheads) adopting. Monetary policy is already strained in the Eurozone- for big exporters like Germany it makes sense for the Euro not to be overly strong. For those with a trade deficit and large importers (eg UK, some of southern Europe) the desire is a strong Euro. |
It was vastly a shame the government of the time was not prepared to negotiate some sort of arrangement along those lines as we were leaving, preferring instead to flirt with "no deal". Tho also the EU were, by then, not really in the mood to compromise. | |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:48 - Sep 17 with 2040 views | MattinLondon |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:42 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
It was vastly a shame the government of the time was not prepared to negotiate some sort of arrangement along those lines as we were leaving, preferring instead to flirt with "no deal". Tho also the EU were, by then, not really in the mood to compromise. |
Last year on the BBC there was a show detailing the EU/UK negotiating the UK’s withdrawal. It followed both sets of negotiators. Basically the EU had a huge team planning for almost every eventuality. Unfortunately the UK, had the modern day equivalent of a fag packet and a pen - it was quite painful to watch. | | | |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:52 - Sep 17 with 2004 views | Guthrum |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:48 - Sep 17 by MattinLondon |
Last year on the BBC there was a show detailing the EU/UK negotiating the UK’s withdrawal. It followed both sets of negotiators. Basically the EU had a huge team planning for almost every eventuality. Unfortunately the UK, had the modern day equivalent of a fag packet and a pen - it was quite painful to watch. |
"Brexit means Brexit" was one of the most fatuous political statements of the modern era. | |
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| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:57 - Sep 17 with 1980 views | MattinLondon |
| Trade slump following Brexit on 11:52 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
"Brexit means Brexit" was one of the most fatuous political statements of the modern era. |
One reason why I consider Theresa May to be such an appalling individual. | | | |
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