| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 09:10 - Sep 25 with 3190 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
The IDF do not have the capacity to launch an effective full scale invasion of Lebanon. Even if they did, Hezbollah are too heavily armed, and would engage in costly urban warfare. They were unable to defeat Hezbollah in 2006 losing a lot of armour as well as personnel, and Hezbollah have much more serious weaponry now. What I would say is it’s unfortunate that the previous targeted and proportionate airstrikes on Hezbollah have now been escalated.
Netanyahu is coming across as desperate, and his downfall is now inevitable. The Israeli economy has shrunk by over 20pc - more than Russia after sanctions, and more than any western economy during COVID. Wars are costly, even with military aid so if they don’t look to end this conflict they’ll simply run out of money (they still have a state to fund whilst at war). [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 9:11]
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 16:03 - Sep 25 with 2893 views | giant_stow |
Just wondering about when people stop worrying about the conflict escalating / start acknowledging that its now full war. |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 18:35 - Sep 25 with 2714 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
It's ridiculous it has come to this when you consider Iran's restraint since the assassination at it's embassy, their new moderate president and that a ceasefire in Gaza could have drawn a line under things for now and facilitated the release of hostages.
'Iran, which despite its threats has exercised unexpected restraint after Israel assassinated a top Hamas leader in Tehran in July, accuses Netanyahu of purposefully seeking the wider war he claims not to want. “Every day Israel is committing more atrocities and killing more and more people,” said Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. He also said: “We are only deluding ourselves if we think someone will be victorious in a regional war.”
Hezbollah has been clear all along. It says it will stop firing missiles when a Gaza ceasefire deal is agreed, not before. Netanyahu has reportedly blocked such a deal on numerous occasions. Yet Israel’s ambassador to the UK insists on the BBC’s Today programme that it’s all about the terror threat in the north. Whose terror, Tzipi Hotovely? Theirs or yours? Official Israeli denialism and misdirection continue, taking a cue from the top.'
(from the op link) |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:05 - Sep 25 with 2655 views | NthQldITFC |
I can well understand how people get turned off from being willing to think about species history-defining things like Climate Change; I'm so sick of Israel's bullsh!t and the US, UK and others' pathetic non-intervention, that I can't really bear to think about it any more. What a load of sh!t. |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:10 - Sep 25 with 2636 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 18:35 - Sep 25 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's ridiculous it has come to this when you consider Iran's restraint since the assassination at it's embassy, their new moderate president and that a ceasefire in Gaza could have drawn a line under things for now and facilitated the release of hostages.
'Iran, which despite its threats has exercised unexpected restraint after Israel assassinated a top Hamas leader in Tehran in July, accuses Netanyahu of purposefully seeking the wider war he claims not to want. “Every day Israel is committing more atrocities and killing more and more people,” said Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. He also said: “We are only deluding ourselves if we think someone will be victorious in a regional war.”
Hezbollah has been clear all along. It says it will stop firing missiles when a Gaza ceasefire deal is agreed, not before. Netanyahu has reportedly blocked such a deal on numerous occasions. Yet Israel’s ambassador to the UK insists on the BBC’s Today programme that it’s all about the terror threat in the north. Whose terror, Tzipi Hotovely? Theirs or yours? Official Israeli denialism and misdirection continue, taking a cue from the top.'
(from the op link) |
Over 400 drones and missiles fired from Iran, and nearly 10,000 shells, missiles, and drones from Hezbollah. If that’s your idea of restraint, I’d hate to get on the wrong side of you… | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:15 - Sep 25 with 2620 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:10 - Sep 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Over 400 drones and missiles fired from Iran, and nearly 10,000 shells, missiles, and drones from Hezbollah. If that’s your idea of restraint, I’d hate to get on the wrong side of you… |
Iran's response was very measured and clearly intended to make a point, but in full expectation that the vast majority of what was sent would not make it through.
Hezbollah is of course connected, but it not Iran. | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:18 - Sep 25 with 2606 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:05 - Sep 25 by NthQldITFC |
I can well understand how people get turned off from being willing to think about species history-defining things like Climate Change; I'm so sick of Israel's bullsh!t and the US, UK and others' pathetic non-intervention, that I can't really bear to think about it any more. What a load of sh!t. |
Quite. Sadly, I suspect our non-intervention plays into our interests of not letting Iran get all its own way in the region. It’s at quite a price though. |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:23 - Sep 25 with 2593 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:15 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Iran's response was very measured and clearly intended to make a point, but in full expectation that the vast majority of what was sent would not make it through.
Hezbollah is of course connected, but it not Iran. |
That’s not correct - the sheer volume that Iran launched was intended to overload the iron dome. It was only additional western intervention that caused it to be a complete failure. In fact that’s likely part of the reason for current ‘restraint’ - further humiliation would not be good for the regime internally.
As for Hezbollah it’s believed that Iran has lost to some extent any element of control such is their power now. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 19:38]
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:38 - Sep 25 with 2546 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:10 - Sep 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Over 400 drones and missiles fired from Iran, and nearly 10,000 shells, missiles, and drones from Hezbollah. If that’s your idea of restraint, I’d hate to get on the wrong side of you… |
You mean the response that they announced as the missiles were still in flight?
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/19/israel-responds-to-i
I would suggest that Iran have been particularly restrained since then unlike say.....Israel !
Edit . However I think we are agreed that it is Israel that are hell bent on continued violence now. Not just you but those who have chosen not to respond to this thread too. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 19:42]
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:39 - Sep 25 with 2535 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:23 - Sep 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
That’s not correct - the sheer volume that Iran launched was intended to overload the iron dome. It was only additional western intervention that caused it to be a complete failure. In fact that’s likely part of the reason for current ‘restraint’ - further humiliation would not be good for the regime internally.
As for Hezbollah it’s believed that Iran has lost to some extent any element of control such is their power now. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 19:38]
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No it wasn't. They intended a few to slip through but did not use overwhelming numbers and used lots of slow dronesy stuff | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:45 - Sep 25 with 2510 views | nodge_blue |
In an ideal world Israel would have sought to discuss a proper 2 state solution and found a peaceful way out.
No one wins wars these days where the other side surrenders and signs terms. They haven't "won" against Hamas.
The whole thing is a tragedy. Like Ukraine. |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:59 - Sep 25 with 2453 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:39 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
No it wasn't. They intended a few to slip through but did not use overwhelming numbers and used lots of slow dronesy stuff |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/foiling-iran-s-missile-attack
It was the biggest test yet for the Iron Dome. They threw over 400 of their best projectiles (worth over USD 1bn) at it including ballistic missiles. The drones are sacrificial (cheap) designed to help the missiles get through. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 20:10]
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:04 - Sep 25 with 2433 views | Blueschev |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 19:45 - Sep 25 by nodge_blue |
In an ideal world Israel would have sought to discuss a proper 2 state solution and found a peaceful way out.
No one wins wars these days where the other side surrenders and signs terms. They haven't "won" against Hamas.
The whole thing is a tragedy. Like Ukraine. |
How can there be a solution when two people want a state in a land mass that is only big enough for one? Until there is a broad consensus where both sides are happy to accommodate the other in a unitary state for all people wishing to live there I can’t see there ever being a resolution. And I wouldn’t hold my breath for that happening any time soon. I know that’s an opinion that upsets many people on both sides, but I’m not interested in one side winning, I just want to see peace. |  | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:28 - Sep 25 with 2382 views | redrickstuhaart |
Did they do lots of damage?
Did they follow up with a bigger barrage immediately after depleting the first wave of defence?
No. No.
Did they nevertheless say "we've made our point" and leave it at that?
Yes.
Compare and contrast with Israel's approach. | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:42 - Sep 25 with 2333 views | DJR |
Meanwhile in Gaza (from Haaretz).
Analysis | Gazans Fear Being Forgotten as Israel Shifts to Lebanon While Still Striking the Strip
As the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel escalates, Gaza residents are worried about being pushed further to the margins of global awareness, despite the rising death toll
Israeli attacks in Gaza have killed dozens of people over the past few days, medical sources in Gaza have told Haaretz. Mustafa Ibrahim, a Gaza resident and researcher of Palestinian society, says that while the number of attacks has decreased, Gazans find no solace in this fact.
"The people in the Gaza Strip are essentially living dead. The humanitarian situation is catastrophic, with severe shortages in almost every area," he says.
Ibrahim adds that Gazans no longer dream of rebuilding homes or constructing new buildings but rather focus on repairing tents in refugee camps. These tents have been damaged by shrapnel, weather conditions and sea moisture, or have deteriorated over the past year, making repairs difficult and alternatives scarce. According to Ibrahim, UN officials have informed him that repairing the tents could take up to two years.
Samir Zaqout serves as deputy director of the Al Mezan Center for Human Rights, which primarily operates in the northern Gaza refugee camp of Jabalya. He says Israel has intensified attacks on schools and refugee centers in recent weeks, claiming that Hamas members are present there. However, these attacks have killed dozens, including women and children.
"How much does this matter to anyone in the world?" Zaqout asks. "How closely is the world following the entry of goods, aid and medical teams to treat the wounded and sick? Does anyone care?
"Now everything's being pushed further to the sidelines because everyone is focused on Lebanon," he says. "A war there could develop into a much broader and more dangerous regional clash."
International support for Gaza and protests advocating for a cease-fire haven't yielded any results. Gaza residents feel that international pressure has made little impression on Israel and has not increased pressure on the American administration to take more effective measures to end the war.
"Returning northern Israeli residents to their homes seems to be more important than the suffering of two million people in Gaza," Zaqout says.
In the shadow of developments on the Lebanese front, Gaza residents are worried about being pushed further to the margins of global awareness, despite the rising death toll and deteriorating humanitarian situation.
"We feel that Gaza was forgotten months ago, and we've been left alone," says Ibrahim, who has undergone several rounds of displacement since the war started. He clarifies that this feeling didn't start amid the escalation between Israel and Lebanon in the last two weeks but that the shift in attention to Lebanon scares Gazans because "it allows Israel to strike more intensely and kill more people without anyone noticing at all."
Omar Shaban, an economic analyst from Gaza, hasn't been there since the war started. He recently held several meetings with senior officials in the EU and international organizations. He argued that Gaza being sidelined isn't just because of the escalation on the Lebanese front.
"I warned months ago that the world would forget Gaza," he says. "Each country is focused on its own affairs, and Gaza has been pushed to the second or third news item. Now, it'll be pushed even further.
"Hezbollah and Lebanon will receive more attention, and we'll increasingly disappear from the world's view," he adds. "Israel will continue the killings and attacks, and Gaza's civilians will suffer more, with no end in sight." |  | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:56 - Sep 25 with 2295 views | nodge_blue |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:04 - Sep 25 by Blueschev |
How can there be a solution when two people want a state in a land mass that is only big enough for one? Until there is a broad consensus where both sides are happy to accommodate the other in a unitary state for all people wishing to live there I can’t see there ever being a resolution. And I wouldn’t hold my breath for that happening any time soon. I know that’s an opinion that upsets many people on both sides, but I’m not interested in one side winning, I just want to see peace. |
Ive never heard anyone argue the land area is only big enough for one. That kinda makes no sense as it already contains Israelis and Palestinians? Its just that the Palestinians arent recognised? | |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:05 - Sep 25 with 2269 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:28 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Did they do lots of damage?
Did they follow up with a bigger barrage immediately after depleting the first wave of defence?
No. No.
Did they nevertheless say "we've made our point" and leave it at that?
Yes.
Compare and contrast with Israel's approach. |
They could ill afford another attempt, both politically and economically. The regime uses hatred of Israel to galvanise domestic support, so further failed attacks wouldn’t play out well. The Western intervention, as well as neighbouring states such as Jordan unhappy at having hypersonic missiles in their airspace meant another attempt was futile. The country is also in the midst of an economic crisis, and following the failed attack the Iranian Rial fell to an all time low.
It’s much more convenient to let their proxies do the heavy lifting, and whilst their control of Hezbollah is limited, they have also used groups in Syria and Yemen. Iran know that with nearly 100k irainian missiles at hand they (Hezbollah) are a threat to Isreal. It’s estimated that just 10pc of Hezbollah’s stockpile would be enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome.
I’ve already discussed Israel’s actions above. | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:16 - Sep 25 with 2245 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 20:28 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Did they do lots of damage?
Did they follow up with a bigger barrage immediately after depleting the first wave of defence?
No. No.
Did they nevertheless say "we've made our point" and leave it at that?
Yes.
Compare and contrast with Israel's approach. |
"Compare and contrast with Israel's approach."
And? You said what they aren't doing, not what they are doing, which misses the point that Iran's strategy in the Middle East is not to have direct conflict, but rather to create and support proxy wars for their own ends. So far these have been in Iraq, Lebanon, Palistine/Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. They support the Russian invasion of Ukraine through armanents. They seek/sought to destablise Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
They are a massive cause of this conflict and don't care about spilling other nations blood for their own political advancement. Any rocket hitting Israel from Lebanon is going to be Iranian made or funded. Hezbollah was founded by Iran in 1982 and believes in an Iranian "Ummah". It is in their 1985 manifesto. |  |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:24 - Sep 25 with 2213 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:16 - Sep 25 by Kropotkin123 |
"Compare and contrast with Israel's approach."
And? You said what they aren't doing, not what they are doing, which misses the point that Iran's strategy in the Middle East is not to have direct conflict, but rather to create and support proxy wars for their own ends. So far these have been in Iraq, Lebanon, Palistine/Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. They support the Russian invasion of Ukraine through armanents. They seek/sought to destablise Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
They are a massive cause of this conflict and don't care about spilling other nations blood for their own political advancement. Any rocket hitting Israel from Lebanon is going to be Iranian made or funded. Hezbollah was founded by Iran in 1982 and believes in an Iranian "Ummah". It is in their 1985 manifesto. |
Off on a complete different tangent. | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:36 - Sep 25 with 2155 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:24 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Off on a complete different tangent. |
It's not a tangent, you're just not capable of seeing a bigger picture. You can't judge Iran by the rockets it personally fires in retaliation when it goes against their strategy which is to provide weapons to and train groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to do it for them, in some cases (Hezbollah) from their very inception. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 21:36]
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:39 - Sep 25 with 2120 views | pointofblue |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:36 - Sep 25 by Kropotkin123 |
It's not a tangent, you're just not capable of seeing a bigger picture. You can't judge Iran by the rockets it personally fires in retaliation when it goes against their strategy which is to provide weapons to and train groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to do it for them, in some cases (Hezbollah) from their very inception. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 21:36]
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And the issue is what Israel is doing right now in both Gaza and Lebanon is barbaric, but they're not the only party inflicting destruction and death on the region. Yet all of them are treading a fine line - kill enough people, displace enough people, put enough of them through pain and suffering but not to the extent that it brings Iran and/or the US into direct conflict. | |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:42 - Sep 25 with 2113 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:36 - Sep 25 by Kropotkin123 |
It's not a tangent, you're just not capable of seeing a bigger picture. You can't judge Iran by the rockets it personally fires in retaliation when it goes against their strategy which is to provide weapons to and train groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to do it for them, in some cases (Hezbollah) from their very inception. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 21:36]
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A tangent and then inaccurate assumptions. I am entirely capable of seeing the larger picture, and don't disagree with anything you say about judging Iran by the rockets it personally fires.
The bigger picture must include, though, recognition of continued awful behaviour by Israel, coveting land that is not theirs, and creating thousands of future terrorists, martyrs and "freedom fighters" with their often indiscriminate aggression. | | | |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:46 - Sep 25 with 2091 views | pointofblue |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:42 - Sep 25 by redrickstuhaart |
A tangent and then inaccurate assumptions. I am entirely capable of seeing the larger picture, and don't disagree with anything you say about judging Iran by the rockets it personally fires.
The bigger picture must include, though, recognition of continued awful behaviour by Israel, coveting land that is not theirs, and creating thousands of future terrorists, martyrs and "freedom fighters" with their often indiscriminate aggression. |
But isn't that the issue on both sides? Who decrees who's lands it is? The goal of Hamas and Hezbollah is to wipe Israel on the map, so they covet land which is not there, helping to create the mindset we're seeing on the far right in Israel with their often, in return, indiscriminate aggression.
It is a chicken-and-egg scenrario. Both the Netanyahu /far right government and Hamas/Hezbollah need each other's mindset to continue to have a purpose. | |
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| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:46 - Sep 25 with 2089 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Netanyahu's "forever war." on 21:39 - Sep 25 by pointofblue |
And the issue is what Israel is doing right now in both Gaza and Lebanon is barbaric, but they're not the only party inflicting destruction and death on the region. Yet all of them are treading a fine line - kill enough people, displace enough people, put enough of them through pain and suffering but not to the extent that it brings Iran and/or the US into direct conflict. |
Agreed, and Netanyahu won't hold back until he sees whether he'll have Trump or Harris in his corner. It's unlikely to start de-escalating until at least the US election, if Harris gets voted in. | |
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