| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? 09:00 - Sep 25 with 5321 views | tractorboy1978 |
Points needed to stay up:
23/24 - 27
22/23 - 35
21/22 - 36
20/21 - 29
19/20 - 35
For comparison going back further:
00/01 - 35
01/02 - 37
02/03 - 43
03/04 - 34
04/05 - 34
Average for the 5 most recent seasons is 32.4 points. Average of the earlier 5 seasons is 36.6 points but that is skewed by a particularly high total in 02/03. Generally speaking, 35 points is enough to keep you up in 7 of the seasons above. You could argue it has become marginally harder but not sure it is the kind of huge swing a lot want to make out. It has always been hard to stay up as a newly promoted team. |  | | |  |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 14:09 - Sep 25 with 1139 views | heavyweight |
Depends what gap you're talking about.
The data as shown potentially indicates the the relative strength of clubs in 18th,19th & 20th positions, it doesn't give any indication of gap between Championship & Premier, or between the top 6-7 in the premier and the rest.
Better stats might be ratio of points gained by top 6 clubs versus bottom 6 clubs - to give a view on the overall competitiveness of the premier.
Or sum of points gained by promoted clubs each season to give a view on relative strength between championship & Premier | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 14:34 - Sep 25 with 1103 views | HighgateBlue |
What constitutes the number of points "needed"? Are you taking (a) the actual points total of the 17th placed team, (b) one point more than the actual total of the 18th placed team, or (c) the same number of points as the 18th placed team, on the basis that the notional team who stayed up would have also needed a better goal difference? |  | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 15:20 - Sep 25 with 1072 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 14:34 - Sep 25 by HighgateBlue |
What constitutes the number of points "needed"? Are you taking (a) the actual points total of the 17th placed team, (b) one point more than the actual total of the 18th placed team, or (c) the same number of points as the 18th placed team, on the basis that the notional team who stayed up would have also needed a better goal difference? |
18th place + 1 point. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 15:59 - Sep 25 with 1010 views | Vegtablue |
Are promoted teams spending much more (once £ inflation and football inflation are accounted for) and recruiting many more than they used to? Are promoted teams being relegated more frequently than they used to? Is there the same variety of teams being relegated and promoted as there used to be? Sorry if already covered and I don't know the answers here, but a proper analysis would need to address these points IMO. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 16:25 - Sep 25 with 973 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 15:59 - Sep 25 by Vegtablue |
Are promoted teams spending much more (once £ inflation and football inflation are accounted for) and recruiting many more than they used to? Are promoted teams being relegated more frequently than they used to? Is there the same variety of teams being relegated and promoted as there used to be? Sorry if already covered and I don't know the answers here, but a proper analysis would need to address these points IMO. |
Using the same years for comparison:
23/24 - 3 relegated
22/23 - 0 relegated (Fulham 10th, Bournemouth 15th, Forest 16th)
21/22 - 2 relegated (Brentford 13th)
20/21 - 2 relegated (Leeds 9th)
19/20 - 1 relegated (Villa 17th, Sheff Utd 9th)
00/01 - 1 relegated (Ipswich 5th, Charlton 9th)
01/02 - 0 relegated (Blackburn 10th, Fulham 13th, Bolton 16th)
02/03 - 1 relegated (Man City 9th, Birmingham 13th)
03/04 - 2 relegated (Portsmouth 13th)
04/05 - 2 relegated (West Brom 17th)
So 8/15 relegated vs 6/15 relegated. Draw whatever conclusions you wish. Interesting 01/02 season and 22/23 season have almost the same profile in terms of where promoted teams finished.
Probably has got marginally harder but like I said in the OP, really not sure it's the whopping great difference a lot of people seem to portray it as. There is still scope for well run, well coached, well organised sides to establish themselves in the league for a few seasons. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 16:27]
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 16:40 - Sep 25 with 959 views | JimmyJazz |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 16:25 - Sep 25 by tractorboy1978 |
Using the same years for comparison:
23/24 - 3 relegated
22/23 - 0 relegated (Fulham 10th, Bournemouth 15th, Forest 16th)
21/22 - 2 relegated (Brentford 13th)
20/21 - 2 relegated (Leeds 9th)
19/20 - 1 relegated (Villa 17th, Sheff Utd 9th)
00/01 - 1 relegated (Ipswich 5th, Charlton 9th)
01/02 - 0 relegated (Blackburn 10th, Fulham 13th, Bolton 16th)
02/03 - 1 relegated (Man City 9th, Birmingham 13th)
03/04 - 2 relegated (Portsmouth 13th)
04/05 - 2 relegated (West Brom 17th)
So 8/15 relegated vs 6/15 relegated. Draw whatever conclusions you wish. Interesting 01/02 season and 22/23 season have almost the same profile in terms of where promoted teams finished.
Probably has got marginally harder but like I said in the OP, really not sure it's the whopping great difference a lot of people seem to portray it as. There is still scope for well run, well coached, well organised sides to establish themselves in the league for a few seasons. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 16:27]
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Think you also need to factor the previous season's number of promoted clubs that were relegated. If, for example Luton had stayed up last year in place of anyone else getting relegated it would seemingly make the chances of 1 promoted club staying up greater. Competing with Luton this season as opposed to Forest who have now had 2 seasons to consolidate. All 3 clubs relegated last season has made this season harder. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 16:41]
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:21 - Sep 25 with 904 views | Vegtablue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 16:40 - Sep 25 by JimmyJazz |
Think you also need to factor the previous season's number of promoted clubs that were relegated. If, for example Luton had stayed up last year in place of anyone else getting relegated it would seemingly make the chances of 1 promoted club staying up greater. Competing with Luton this season as opposed to Forest who have now had 2 seasons to consolidate. All 3 clubs relegated last season has made this season harder. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 16:41]
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This is definitely a consideration on a season-by-season basis.
More broadly, if a higher proportion of clubs are consistently returning to the PL after relegation now than they used to, this would point to a widening gap between the leagues. The fresh blood of us, Luton and Forest in the last three seasons is welcome evidence that the pyramid is still just about working, but I don't know how it compares to ten or twenty years ago. if newly promoted clubs are buying and spending far more than they used to, while their survival rate is declining, this could indicate that the gap has widened too (or at least that clubs' perception is it has). | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:24 - Sep 25 with 900 views | Vegtablue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 16:25 - Sep 25 by tractorboy1978 |
Using the same years for comparison:
23/24 - 3 relegated
22/23 - 0 relegated (Fulham 10th, Bournemouth 15th, Forest 16th)
21/22 - 2 relegated (Brentford 13th)
20/21 - 2 relegated (Leeds 9th)
19/20 - 1 relegated (Villa 17th, Sheff Utd 9th)
00/01 - 1 relegated (Ipswich 5th, Charlton 9th)
01/02 - 0 relegated (Blackburn 10th, Fulham 13th, Bolton 16th)
02/03 - 1 relegated (Man City 9th, Birmingham 13th)
03/04 - 2 relegated (Portsmouth 13th)
04/05 - 2 relegated (West Brom 17th)
So 8/15 relegated vs 6/15 relegated. Draw whatever conclusions you wish. Interesting 01/02 season and 22/23 season have almost the same profile in terms of where promoted teams finished.
Probably has got marginally harder but like I said in the OP, really not sure it's the whopping great difference a lot of people seem to portray it as. There is still scope for well run, well coached, well organised sides to establish themselves in the league for a few seasons. [Post edited 25 Sep 2024 16:27]
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Cheers for investigating that aspect and I hope we finish the season reflecting it was easier than feared obviously. | | | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:25 - Sep 25 with 897 views | MK1 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:05 - Sep 25 by JimmyJazz |
Fully expect at least 2 of the promoted teams to go down this season, mainly due to most other PL clubs being rather established and therefore able to reach the 30-35 point mark. |
At least 2? Southampton will go, but I think Leicester and ourselves have a real fighting chance. Leicester because of their squad, us because of McKenna and our recruitment. Muric, Greaves, Phillips, Clarke, Delap and Szmodics in particular will prove their worth. (Greaves and Phillips already are) |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:37 - Sep 25 with 883 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
I’m not sure that Everton are suddenly going to morph into a good side because of the takeover. They’re stuck with the same squad until Jan now, and giving up 2-0 leads twice is not going to be good for confidence or morale.
Unless there’s a stunning turnaround they aren’t going to be an attractive proposition for signing new players in the winter window(especially if they are still around the bottom 5 places). New owners and a big stadium isn’t the only thing that matters - otherwise everyone would be signing for Sunderland… | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:43 - Sep 25 with 873 views | MK1 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:37 - Sep 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I’m not sure that Everton are suddenly going to morph into a good side because of the takeover. They’re stuck with the same squad until Jan now, and giving up 2-0 leads twice is not going to be good for confidence or morale.
Unless there’s a stunning turnaround they aren’t going to be an attractive proposition for signing new players in the winter window(especially if they are still around the bottom 5 places). New owners and a big stadium isn’t the only thing that matters - otherwise everyone would be signing for Sunderland… |
And Chelsea wouldn't have a squad at all. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:09 - Sep 25 with 837 views | Europablue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:21 - Sep 25 by Vegtablue |
This is definitely a consideration on a season-by-season basis.
More broadly, if a higher proportion of clubs are consistently returning to the PL after relegation now than they used to, this would point to a widening gap between the leagues. The fresh blood of us, Luton and Forest in the last three seasons is welcome evidence that the pyramid is still just about working, but I don't know how it compares to ten or twenty years ago. if newly promoted clubs are buying and spending far more than they used to, while their survival rate is declining, this could indicate that the gap has widened too (or at least that clubs' perception is it has). |
The question is, if we stay up this season, would be happy for the promoted teams to be relegated every season thereafter? | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:13 - Sep 25 with 826 views | MK1 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:09 - Sep 25 by Europablue |
The question is, if we stay up this season, would be happy for the promoted teams to be relegated every season thereafter? |
Nah, that would be boring. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:23 - Sep 25 with 813 views | bournemouthblue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 18:37 - Sep 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I’m not sure that Everton are suddenly going to morph into a good side because of the takeover. They’re stuck with the same squad until Jan now, and giving up 2-0 leads twice is not going to be good for confidence or morale.
Unless there’s a stunning turnaround they aren’t going to be an attractive proposition for signing new players in the winter window(especially if they are still around the bottom 5 places). New owners and a big stadium isn’t the only thing that matters - otherwise everyone would be signing for Sunderland… |
The problem with Everton is someone like Calvert-Lewin might be that extra bit of quality on the others they have to drag their way out of it
Time will tell but he certainly has that quality to get the goals they need to stay up, even if they have started badly |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 20:09 - Sep 25 with 798 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:23 - Sep 25 by bournemouthblue |
The problem with Everton is someone like Calvert-Lewin might be that extra bit of quality on the others they have to drag their way out of it
Time will tell but he certainly has that quality to get the goals they need to stay up, even if they have started badly |
Calvert-Lewis is not an extra bit of quality.
Massively overrated. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 19:06 - Sep 26 with 664 views | PioneerBlue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:42 - Sep 25 by Samuelowen88 |
I did look at this a few weeks ago,
Points for Safety by Samuelowen88 22 Aug 2024 18:19Early I know but had a look at the last 10 years.
These are the points that would have seen you safe (18th + 1pt)
23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 29
19/20 35
18/19 35
17/18 34
16/17 35
15/16 38
14/15 36
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
Not really sure where I'm going with this but thought it woth posting.
But last 10 seasons, points for safety:
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
An 11 point difference in safety is huge, so no knowing where it is going to be this year.
Currently on 0.6ppg but earlydays so cant really read too much into this. |
We all know it will be an exceptionally hard season and an amazing effort to stay up. I’m holding to the note that however it finishes we will be stronger next season than we were either starting in the champ or this season starting in the PL. I’m actually quite up on our 0.6 ppg start. It’s not zero which it would have been if we were unable to compete. There is something to build upon and it’s really about how high the players can reach in a short space of time. Not losing every early game is a start. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 23:37 - Sep 26 with 597 views | rickw |
Forgetting the statistics usually you find clubs in the PL who meet some of below:
Are small and just managed to stay up the previous season
Clubs where there is a division/dislike between the players
Bad managerial appointments
Clubs in financial difficulties
Clubs just generally badly run
This season there is pretty much none of any of those. OK you can say Man Utd and Chelsea are badly run but they spend enough to stay well away. Everton nearly meet the bottom 2 scenario's but in Dyche have a manager who knows how to just do enough.
The smaller clubs in the league like Fulham, Bournemouth and Brentford are all really well run with good managers and good players |  |
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