| US election 09:28 - Nov 4 with 10160 views | _clive_baker_ |
Tempted to stay up and watch it tomorrow as I do enjoy the drama. I've had a look at the betting odds just out of interest, seems like Harris is nosing ahead? |  | | |  |
| US election on 09:32 - Nov 4 with 4168 views | JakeITFC |
Trump has been heavy favourite on the betting markets for most of the race (and remains odds on now), but interestingly I think there may be some inefficiencies in those markets as some fairly big arbs have been available across different providers for long periods and not snapped up. Wonder whether someone somewhere thinks it is better for him to achieve heavy favouritism for another reason. |  | | |
| US election on 09:36 - Nov 4 with 4131 views | _clive_baker_ |
| US election on 09:32 - Nov 4 by JakeITFC |
Trump has been heavy favourite on the betting markets for most of the race (and remains odds on now), but interestingly I think there may be some inefficiencies in those markets as some fairly big arbs have been available across different providers for long periods and not snapped up. Wonder whether someone somewhere thinks it is better for him to achieve heavy favouritism for another reason. |
As in if he's seen as favourite it'll give some people less incentive to go out and help him get over the line?
The polls are tight, I tend to think the likes of Trump might do better at the ballot box than a poll when people are afforded anonymity for a candidate they might not be willing to admit to voting for when asked in a poll? But that might be nonsense to be fair, its just instinct. | | | |
| US election on 09:38 - Nov 4 with 4048 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Dont bother it could be up to a week before a result is declared. Then the lawyers get briefed.
Alternatively wait for Pennsylvania then go to bed and wait a week. |  |
| |
| US election on 09:41 - Nov 4 with 4105 views | PassionNotAnger |
| US election on 09:32 - Nov 4 by JakeITFC |
Trump has been heavy favourite on the betting markets for most of the race (and remains odds on now), but interestingly I think there may be some inefficiencies in those markets as some fairly big arbs have been available across different providers for long periods and not snapped up. Wonder whether someone somewhere thinks it is better for him to achieve heavy favouritism for another reason. |
There is a growing school of thought that some of the financial heavyweights backing Trump have “invested” heavily by betting on Trump in an attempt to influence the polls and voters. One could assume/fear that’s part of an overall strategy to legitimize claims of voter fraud if Trump loses so that it can be challenged through the legal system that is now so heavily weighted in trumps favour
Appreciate this seems very much like a conspiracy theory which I’m normally so sceptical of.
In answer to the OP, read exit polls will only start to come through from around 5am but suspect there will be multiple versions of these which will be contradictory so not really sure what we will be able to be confident on but will be setting the alarm for around that time [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 9:44]
| | | |
| US election on 09:43 - Nov 4 with 4080 views | The_Romford_Blue |
To the chat room.. CRS [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 9:43]
|  |
| |
| US election on 09:44 - Nov 4 with 4055 views | _clive_baker_ |
| US election on 09:41 - Nov 4 by PassionNotAnger |
There is a growing school of thought that some of the financial heavyweights backing Trump have “invested” heavily by betting on Trump in an attempt to influence the polls and voters. One could assume/fear that’s part of an overall strategy to legitimize claims of voter fraud if Trump loses so that it can be challenged through the legal system that is now so heavily weighted in trumps favour
Appreciate this seems very much like a conspiracy theory which I’m normally so sceptical of.
In answer to the OP, read exit polls will only start to come through from around 5am but suspect there will be multiple versions of these which will be contradictory so not really sure what we will be able to be confident on but will be setting the alarm for around that time [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 9:44]
|
Thanks for that, good to know. Assuming voting closes at 10pm local time (I'm guessing) then for the west Coast that's, what, like 6am Wednesday our time? I won't be staying up then. | | | |
| US election on 09:56 - Nov 4 with 3978 views | EdwardStone |
| US election on 09:44 - Nov 4 by _clive_baker_ |
Thanks for that, good to know. Assuming voting closes at 10pm local time (I'm guessing) then for the west Coast that's, what, like 6am Wednesday our time? I won't be staying up then. |
I am overly invested in this election.... I kinda feel it is a nodal point for the civilised World
But the tv coverage on Tuesday night and through into Wednesday morning will be heavy on opinions and exit polls with very little in the way of actual results
I think the real picture will emerge in the few days after polling closes....with all the shenanigans and legal challenges that will erupt as hot heads vent their fury
A challenging time ahead methinks |  | | |
| US election on 10:04 - Nov 4 with 3944 views | J2BLUE |
US Election - TWTD Chat Room - Tuesday from 22:00ish by J2BLUE 4 Nov 2024 10:03For us sad cases who enjoy this stuff, the chat room will be open tomorrow night.
https://www.twtd.co.uk/chatroom/
It has been a good laugh the last couple of elections watching the results come in. If anyone would like to join please do.
|  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| US election on 10:05 - Nov 4 with 3941 views | iamatractorboy |
If Trump wins by a narrow EC margin (I can't see how he could possibly win the PV) then he'll likely come out with some bull about how "they tried to steal it from us, but they failed". If he wins comfortably with the EC, he'll brag about how he's the bestest most popular president ever. And if he loses, it'll obviously be a steal and fraud and radical leftist Democrats in cahoots with 'the Deep State', "fraud and cheating at a level we've never seen before" and all that cr*p. Nowhere in Trump's mind is it conceivable that he can lose. And the sheep that follow him will lap it all up. [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 10:06]
| | | |
| US election on 10:24 - Nov 4 with 3828 views | BlueNomad |
| US election on 10:05 - Nov 4 by iamatractorboy |
If Trump wins by a narrow EC margin (I can't see how he could possibly win the PV) then he'll likely come out with some bull about how "they tried to steal it from us, but they failed". If he wins comfortably with the EC, he'll brag about how he's the bestest most popular president ever. And if he loses, it'll obviously be a steal and fraud and radical leftist Democrats in cahoots with 'the Deep State', "fraud and cheating at a level we've never seen before" and all that cr*p. Nowhere in Trump's mind is it conceivable that he can lose. And the sheep that follow him will lap it all up. [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 10:06]
|
What a position to be in. President or prison! |  | | |
| US election on 10:25 - Nov 4 with 3831 views | Guthrum |
| US election on 09:56 - Nov 4 by EdwardStone |
I am overly invested in this election.... I kinda feel it is a nodal point for the civilised World
But the tv coverage on Tuesday night and through into Wednesday morning will be heavy on opinions and exit polls with very little in the way of actual results
I think the real picture will emerge in the few days after polling closes....with all the shenanigans and legal challenges that will erupt as hot heads vent their fury
A challenging time ahead methinks |
I'm not convinced that Trump would serve a whole four-year term, should he win. Even if his mental faculties do hold out, the strain of the job could well be too much. He'll spend much of the time playing golf, anyway.
If Vance was hugely competent, I doubt Trump would have picked him as a running mate.
Generally speaking, I can see the whole thing fizzling out into a shambles of incompetence. [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 10:30]
|  |
| |
| US election on 10:30 - Nov 4 with 3801 views | Guthrum |
| US election on 10:24 - Nov 4 by BlueNomad |
What a position to be in. President or prison! |
Pretty much what's driving Netanyahu, as well. Putin even more so - potentially President or death.
That's what makes these people so dangerous, they have everything to lose by failure. | |
| |
| US election on 10:33 - Nov 4 with 3768 views | PhilTWTD |
| US election on 10:25 - Nov 4 by Guthrum |
I'm not convinced that Trump would serve a whole four-year term, should he win. Even if his mental faculties do hold out, the strain of the job could well be too much. He'll spend much of the time playing golf, anyway.
If Vance was hugely competent, I doubt Trump would have picked him as a running mate.
Generally speaking, I can see the whole thing fizzling out into a shambles of incompetence. [Post edited 4 Nov 2024 10:30]
|
As their campaign has! Fortunately, the wind seems very much more in the direction of a Harris win. |  | | |
| US election on 10:33 - Nov 4 with 3751 views | Europablue |
It's not worth staying up for because it won't be decided on the night. I would make a firm prediction that at least Pennsylvania will not declare for a couple of days later.
I'm going to just go to bed and check it in the morning. | | | |
| US election on 10:36 - Nov 4 with 3743 views | _clive_baker_ |
| US election on 10:33 - Nov 4 by PhilTWTD |
As their campaign has! Fortunately, the wind seems very much more in the direction of a Harris win. |
Wonder if this late poll shift towards a Harris win might get a few more Trump supporters out to vote for him though. Probably the best scenario in terms of him getting the highest number of absolute votes is to be seen as marginally behind, rather than way off in either direction or even marginally ahead. | | | |
| US election on 10:40 - Nov 4 with 3707 views | Europablue |
| US election on 09:56 - Nov 4 by EdwardStone |
I am overly invested in this election.... I kinda feel it is a nodal point for the civilised World
But the tv coverage on Tuesday night and through into Wednesday morning will be heavy on opinions and exit polls with very little in the way of actual results
I think the real picture will emerge in the few days after polling closes....with all the shenanigans and legal challenges that will erupt as hot heads vent their fury
A challenging time ahead methinks |
With ITFC not getting results, I have strangely transferred my emotional and nervous energy to the US elections. Of course I have even less influence over the election than I do over the football.
Unfortunately, it appears that there will be conflict in the US over a likely tight result. There are too many crazy loopholes and rules that muddy the water and leave room for corruption. Voter ID needs to be mandatory and postal votes should be limited to people serving or working overseas and people physically unable to get to the polls. Those votes should be collected in a very secure manner and not just allowed to be dropped off on street corners. There is only two reasons why these things have not been sorted out, they either favour one side over the other, or the two sides hate each other so much that they can't agree on anything. | | | |
| US election on 11:12 - Nov 4 with 3623 views | Guthrum |
| US election on 10:40 - Nov 4 by Europablue |
With ITFC not getting results, I have strangely transferred my emotional and nervous energy to the US elections. Of course I have even less influence over the election than I do over the football.
Unfortunately, it appears that there will be conflict in the US over a likely tight result. There are too many crazy loopholes and rules that muddy the water and leave room for corruption. Voter ID needs to be mandatory and postal votes should be limited to people serving or working overseas and people physically unable to get to the polls. Those votes should be collected in a very secure manner and not just allowed to be dropped off on street corners. There is only two reasons why these things have not been sorted out, they either favour one side over the other, or the two sides hate each other so much that they can't agree on anything. |
Or voter fraud of that sort is such a small problem the time and effort of sorting it out would not be justified by its non-effect on results.
The biggest issue seems to be attempts to vote on behalf of dead people or to double vote in different areas. Judging by news reports, more Republican supporters seem to get caught for this than Democrats. | |
| |
| US election on 12:41 - Nov 4 with 3436 views | PhilTWTD |
| US election on 10:36 - Nov 4 by _clive_baker_ |
Wonder if this late poll shift towards a Harris win might get a few more Trump supporters out to vote for him though. Probably the best scenario in terms of him getting the highest number of absolute votes is to be seen as marginally behind, rather than way off in either direction or even marginally ahead. |
Works both ways, Trump's people are complaining about a poll which favours Harris with them not far behind as potentially putting off their voters, which, of course, they claim has been done deliberately.
I suspect, and there seems increasing evidence that this is the case with even some pollsters themselves surmising as much, that the Harris vote has been under-represented in the polls and she will win with greater comfort than has been anticipated. | | | |
| US election on 13:23 - Nov 4 with 3348 views | PhilTWTD |
| US election on 11:12 - Nov 4 by Guthrum |
Or voter fraud of that sort is such a small problem the time and effort of sorting it out would not be justified by its non-effect on results.
The biggest issue seems to be attempts to vote on behalf of dead people or to double vote in different areas. Judging by news reports, more Republican supporters seem to get caught for this than Democrats. |
As here, the calls for voter ID are aimed at preventing people who might not have the specified ID from voting, usually poorer people and in America with deliberately racist overtones. | | | |
| US election on 13:27 - Nov 4 with 3337 views | Europablue |
| US election on 11:12 - Nov 4 by Guthrum |
Or voter fraud of that sort is such a small problem the time and effort of sorting it out would not be justified by its non-effect on results.
The biggest issue seems to be attempts to vote on behalf of dead people or to double vote in different areas. Judging by news reports, more Republican supporters seem to get caught for this than Democrats. |
What you seem to be referring to is voter fraud. It doesn't matter who is more or less likely to benefit, voter fraud needs to be dealt with. Postal ballots are a really weak point. In America you can designate someone to collect your postal ballot on your behalf. It sounds like a good idea to help old or infirm people, but it also allows people to harvest votes. I think the Democrats were doing this better than the Republicans last time out, so the Republicans have probably wised up to this to. Rather than all doing the immoral thing equally as well, why not just make it more secure?
Voter ID is not a problem in all other civilized countries. It does make you worry if you can vote so easily without a second check, that anyone could do the same. Even if you aren't catching many people fraudulently voting, then you still give the voters the reassurance that the vote is being conducted with sufficient security.
Personally, I can't understand the whole concept of actively registering to vote. Surely everyone who is legally entitled to vote should be automatically on the electoral register?
The other thing that concerns me is how much candidates spend on their campaigns and in particular how long a President spends campaigning for his second term while he should be concentrating on his actual job. | | | |
| US election on 13:31 - Nov 4 with 3320 views | Europablue |
| US election on 13:23 - Nov 4 by PhilTWTD |
As here, the calls for voter ID are aimed at preventing people who might not have the specified ID from voting, usually poorer people and in America with deliberately racist overtones. |
Sorry Phil, but that is a very weak argument. You have to show ID for all sorts of less consequential things than voting. It strikes me as quite implicitly racist to suggest that people of different races are incapable of getting IDs.
The solution is to make IDs very easy and cheap to acquire, not to just not require IDs. | | | |
| US election on 13:35 - Nov 4 with 3298 views | PhilTWTD |
| US election on 13:31 - Nov 4 by Europablue |
Sorry Phil, but that is a very weak argument. You have to show ID for all sorts of less consequential things than voting. It strikes me as quite implicitly racist to suggest that people of different races are incapable of getting IDs.
The solution is to make IDs very easy and cheap to acquire, not to just not require IDs. |
The intention is clearly to disenfranchise poorer people, who are often from non-white backgrounds. As Guthum says, there is no real need for it anyway, there is no evidence of significant voter fraud. With respect, you're parrotting Trump's lines.
Of course, here when the Tories did similar, it ended up hitting part of their vote with a lot of elderly people not having the types of prescribed IDs.
This post has been edited by an administrator | | | |
| US election on 13:40 - Nov 4 with 3245 views | positivity |
| US election on 13:27 - Nov 4 by Europablue |
What you seem to be referring to is voter fraud. It doesn't matter who is more or less likely to benefit, voter fraud needs to be dealt with. Postal ballots are a really weak point. In America you can designate someone to collect your postal ballot on your behalf. It sounds like a good idea to help old or infirm people, but it also allows people to harvest votes. I think the Democrats were doing this better than the Republicans last time out, so the Republicans have probably wised up to this to. Rather than all doing the immoral thing equally as well, why not just make it more secure?
Voter ID is not a problem in all other civilized countries. It does make you worry if you can vote so easily without a second check, that anyone could do the same. Even if you aren't catching many people fraudulently voting, then you still give the voters the reassurance that the vote is being conducted with sufficient security.
Personally, I can't understand the whole concept of actively registering to vote. Surely everyone who is legally entitled to vote should be automatically on the electoral register?
The other thing that concerns me is how much candidates spend on their campaigns and in particular how long a President spends campaigning for his second term while he should be concentrating on his actual job. |
where is your evidence that democrats do more electoral fraud than republicans?
there are plenty of reasons why someone needs a postal ballot, and always will be if you're only allowed to vote in person on the day, a blanket ban would be absurd | |
| |
| US election on 13:45 - Nov 4 with 3196 views | Europablue |
| US election on 13:35 - Nov 4 by PhilTWTD |
The intention is clearly to disenfranchise poorer people, who are often from non-white backgrounds. As Guthum says, there is no real need for it anyway, there is no evidence of significant voter fraud. With respect, you're parrotting Trump's lines.
Of course, here when the Tories did similar, it ended up hitting part of their vote with a lot of elderly people not having the types of prescribed IDs.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
Just because Trump says something, does not mean I'm parroting his lines.
I was shocked when I heard that having to show ID to vote was a point of contention in the US.
The point is to have electoral integrity, so you enforce the ID requirement strictly and make it very easy and cheap to get ID impartially. | | | |
| US election on 13:49 - Nov 4 with 3175 views | PhilTWTD |
| US election on 13:45 - Nov 4 by Europablue |
Just because Trump says something, does not mean I'm parroting his lines.
I was shocked when I heard that having to show ID to vote was a point of contention in the US.
The point is to have electoral integrity, so you enforce the ID requirement strictly and make it very easy and cheap to get ID impartially. |
But if you restrict the electorate, then that's less democratic, particularly when it's done for spurious and transparently self-serving reasons. | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
