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In order to have any chance of staying up 13:19 - Jan 6 with 1611 viewsringwoodblue

We have to improve our points haul from the first half of the season by, I reckon, 10 points so where are those points coming from? These are my thoughts:

+3
Everton

+2
Southampton
Leicester
Brighton

+1
Brentford
Bournemouth
Man City
West Ham
C Palace

0 (same result)
Wolves
Arsenal
Man Utd
Liverpool
Newcastle
N Forest
Aston Villa

-2
Chelsea
Tottenham

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 13:45 - Jan 6 with 1463 viewspositivity

i don't think we'll need 40 points to have "any chance of staying up"; currently 32 would do it.

history suggests 35 would give us a good chance.

so from yours, i'd take 2 off your brighton target, 1 off chelsea ,citeh and villa
[Post edited 6 Jan 13:50]

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 13:51 - Jan 6 with 1428 viewsSuffolkPunchFC

In order to have any chance of staying up on 13:45 - Jan 6 by positivity

i don't think we'll need 40 points to have "any chance of staying up"; currently 32 would do it.

history suggests 35 would give us a good chance.

so from yours, i'd take 2 off your brighton target, 1 off chelsea ,citeh and villa
[Post edited 6 Jan 13:50]


Agreed, looking at the table trajectory right now, 35 may well be the magic number. So an improvement of 5-6 points over the first 19 games.
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 13:53 - Jan 6 with 1395 viewsFrimleyBlue

Keep it simple

Must wins

Leicester
Southampton
Everton
Wolves

Win those, we have a chance with picking up points from some others.

But imo we have to stop those 4 sides getting any points on us.
[Post edited 6 Jan 13:55]

a niche perspective
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:19 - Jan 6 with 1266 viewsLen_Brennan

We have got to believe that we will finish above Leicester (& Southampton), so then it comes down to, who would be the other & what points total are they likely to reach.
Palace have gotten much better & have funds and ffp leeway to improve further, so I can't see them finishing 3rd last. Maybe someone like West Ham could drop, but probably not enough unless they appoint Keane or Rooney as their next manager.
So it stay's with us looking to get ahead of Wolves & Everton. Very doable, however Wolves will be better from here on & if Moyes stays, he will grind out more decent results, so 35 points is probably the least we might need to stay up. I think we'll need 38 points, and possibly an improved gosl difference, to stazy up this season.
I also think we can get those points.
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:20 - Jan 6 with 1263 viewsMattinLondon

There needs to be a definite improvement in the second half of the season in terms of points, but I’d argue more on a game-by-game basis, than setting points targets against individual teams.

The first two matches of the season resulted in two loses however the first two matches of the second half of the season (Chelsea and Fulham) has resulted in four points. So there’s already been improvement.
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:31 - Jan 6 with 1218 viewspositivity

In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:20 - Jan 6 by MattinLondon

There needs to be a definite improvement in the second half of the season in terms of points, but I’d argue more on a game-by-game basis, than setting points targets against individual teams.

The first two matches of the season resulted in two loses however the first two matches of the second half of the season (Chelsea and Fulham) has resulted in four points. So there’s already been improvement.


chelsea was in the first half, but a point a game is still an improvement!

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:34 - Jan 6 with 1171 viewsJammyDodgerrr

Got to be looking to beat West Ham and Palace also.

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:47 - Jan 6 with 1092 viewsIPSWICHFANITFC

I think we just need to get some more points from our home fixtures and stop letting ourselves down in the final moments of the game.

Brentford away, Leicester home, Bournemouth home and Fulham away have seen us drop points through our own mistakes really. We need to iron these out else we'll be having a scrap to stay up but falling short because of our own mistakes, even though performances generally, we have been competitive and look like we should be here.

Next game is Brighton who haven't won since the 23rd November. There's a start regarding the home fixtures...

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:49 - Jan 6 with 1085 viewsNedPlimpton

In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:31 - Jan 6 by positivity

chelsea was in the first half, but a point a game is still an improvement!


A point is an improvement vs the 0 points we picked up at home to Liverpool. But not vs the reverse fixture against Fulham

Don't get me wrong, a point away at Fulham is a great result, but we're going to need to improve against a lot of sides we lost or drew against in the first half of the season. We can't really bank on beating Spurs and Chelsea again either
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 15:21 - Jan 6 with 968 viewsSitfcB

Doesn’t necessarily have to be set out like that though. Can just do it on games played.

So…

P:1
W:0
D:1
F:2
A: 2

Already better by one point and GD

COYB
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 15:56 - Jan 6 with 851 viewspositivity

In order to have any chance of staying up on 14:49 - Jan 6 by NedPlimpton

A point is an improvement vs the 0 points we picked up at home to Liverpool. But not vs the reverse fixture against Fulham

Don't get me wrong, a point away at Fulham is a great result, but we're going to need to improve against a lot of sides we lost or drew against in the first half of the season. We can't really bank on beating Spurs and Chelsea again either


though it is a harder game away! (in theory at least...)

i was meaning that a point per game is better than we averaged over the first 19

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In order to have any chance of staying up on 16:02 - Jan 6 with 817 viewsAsa

There is always this weird calculation that comes out at this stage of the season that we need 35 points or 40 points.

We had 15 yesterday and that was enough to be a point off at the half way stage. Calculations here always seem to assume Palace and Leicester and Wolves will all take the same points or more. The reality is that some or all might pick up less points.

Realistically we need 2 points more than Wolves, the same or one less than than Leicester and for Southampton to not find the form of a team gunning for the Champions League.

If Wolves and Leicester only take another 9 points then we'd only need the equivalent of 4 wins! If they take 21 points each we'd need 7 wins!

It all really depends omn just doing better than those around us and is to be taken week by week. We should all have learned from League One and the Championship that points in other seasons count for nothing!
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In order to have any chance of staying up on 20:15 - Jan 6 with 514 viewsChris_ITFC

As we've proved, these things are never that simple!
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