| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. 07:31 - Nov 10 with 4240 views | noggin |
In the last 12 months, coffee has risen by 25%, fresh cod by 18%, eggs by 12.5%, bananas 12.8% and the list goes on. (This is in Norway but I presume it's similar in the UK?)
Obviously wages are not rising at anything like those figures, so why are prices continuing to rise so quickly? It must be a huge struggle for many families, lower paid workers and the unemployed. Maybe it's time to return to eating local and seasonal produce, although cod is local here and it's becoming a luxury for most people. |  |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:01 - Nov 10 with 874 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 13:53 - Nov 10 by nrb1985 |
How are you going to do QE with inflation stuck at around 3%? |
It seems fairly clear Powell is on his way out. The next Fed chair will be a yes man who does exactly what Trump wants. |  |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:09 - Nov 10 with 846 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:01 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
It seems fairly clear Powell is on his way out. The next Fed chair will be a yes man who does exactly what Trump wants. |
No they won't because if Fed independence is under serious threat the bond market will eat them alive.
Trump cares about the bond market not the stock market. Every time the 10yr backs up he rows back on what he says. |  | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:11 - Nov 10 with 833 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 13:56 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
honest question - if the debasement trade is a major force wouldn't that lead to greater dollar weakness? taking any longer-term perspective and using the dollar index it isn't currently weak. doesn't that imply that the markets are assuming that us inflationary forces are weakening and that the strength of the us economy and the prospects of tech led growth are sufficient to sustain borrowing in the longer -term? i don't have an answer - but i'd expect debasement to be associated with a weak dollar.? |
Tbf, the USD has been weaker this yet but in a historical context DXY is still way above it's long term average.
You are right though, if the market feared debasement the USD wouldn't be where it is (actually strengthening a lot recently) and you certainly wouldn't have 10yr yields below 4%. | | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:12 - Nov 10 with 825 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 13:56 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
honest question - if the debasement trade is a major force wouldn't that lead to greater dollar weakness? taking any longer-term perspective and using the dollar index it isn't currently weak. doesn't that imply that the markets are assuming that us inflationary forces are weakening and that the strength of the us economy and the prospects of tech led growth are sufficient to sustain borrowing in the longer -term? i don't have an answer - but i'd expect debasement to be associated with a weak dollar.? |
The debasement is global. Right now, as shown by the graph above the dollar liquidity is tightening. That makes the dollar the best option right now.
I think the global numbers are the ones to watch. I suspect the US will reverse course very soon one Trump gets his handpicked Fed chair.
Global M2 has gone up 75% in eight years. I am not sure the US figures are really relevant in isolation in a globally connected world. You can buy gold anywhere. You can buy Bitcoin almost anywhere. You can buy stocks almost anywhere.
To be clear, this is my view. As we see above, other views are available. You can cherry pick data to prove anything really but that is my view based on what I can see. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:27 - Nov 10 with 788 views | Vaughan8 |
I know this is only a small proportion of products but i'm guessing it can be applied across the board.
I know many growers of Tomatoes/peppers/cucumbers etc which have just stopped growing as its become too expensive with heating etc as well as additional wages and Ers NI increases.
Along with the supermarkets (or bigger growers) getting agrresively low prices to unaffordable levels for these people, that is the reason they are stopping growing.
Some have had bigger growers take over their nurseries and they get some rent but some are just not being used, or used fully. Therefore, more has to be imported to meet demands.....!
Fruit and Veg has become really expensive and I believe this is why. So not to blame solely one thing, but Brexit, wages/NI increases, energy costs contribute to it all.
One client I have had about 70-80 employees,. their wage bill alone, with the small wage increase and the employers NI going up was going to cost the £250-300k a year extra. [Post edited 10 Nov 14:32]
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:30 - Nov 10 with 775 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:12 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
The debasement is global. Right now, as shown by the graph above the dollar liquidity is tightening. That makes the dollar the best option right now.
I think the global numbers are the ones to watch. I suspect the US will reverse course very soon one Trump gets his handpicked Fed chair.
Global M2 has gone up 75% in eight years. I am not sure the US figures are really relevant in isolation in a globally connected world. You can buy gold anywhere. You can buy Bitcoin almost anywhere. You can buy stocks almost anywhere.
To be clear, this is my view. As we see above, other views are available. You can cherry pick data to prove anything really but that is my view based on what I can see. |
Ok Gary. | | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:31 - Nov 10 with 771 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:30 - Nov 10 by nrb1985 |
Ok Gary. |
You're acting like a child. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:38 - Nov 10 with 732 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:31 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
You're acting like a child. |
For all you know I am a child Gary. | | | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:43 - Nov 10 with 716 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:38 - Nov 10 by nrb1985 |
For all you know I am a child Gary. |
Very odd.
I wish you all the best with your investments. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:48 - Nov 10 with 692 views | lowhouseblue |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:12 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
The debasement is global. Right now, as shown by the graph above the dollar liquidity is tightening. That makes the dollar the best option right now.
I think the global numbers are the ones to watch. I suspect the US will reverse course very soon one Trump gets his handpicked Fed chair.
Global M2 has gone up 75% in eight years. I am not sure the US figures are really relevant in isolation in a globally connected world. You can buy gold anywhere. You can buy Bitcoin almost anywhere. You can buy stocks almost anywhere.
To be clear, this is my view. As we see above, other views are available. You can cherry pick data to prove anything really but that is my view based on what I can see. |
the stats i googled for global m2 between the end of 2017 and the end of 2024 had it rising by 37.5%. in the same period global gdp in current prices rose by 35.7%. both in us dollars. that doesn't imply a huge mismatch?
i'm comfortable with the case for real assets but that would be on the basis of diversification from the us tech stocks rather than necessarily a structural shift away from the dollar. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:16 - Nov 10 with 664 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:48 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
the stats i googled for global m2 between the end of 2017 and the end of 2024 had it rising by 37.5%. in the same period global gdp in current prices rose by 35.7%. both in us dollars. that doesn't imply a huge mismatch?
i'm comfortable with the case for real assets but that would be on the basis of diversification from the us tech stocks rather than necessarily a structural shift away from the dollar. |
With data centre build out and the insane amount of capex for AI infrastructure, tech stocks and real assets like real estate and commodities may not be uncorrelated for very long.
You are already seeing the big Hyperscalers buy up and invest in power plants for example.
It may all end in tears for these tech companies but it's bloody exciting to watch! | | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:20 - Nov 10 with 651 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 14:48 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
the stats i googled for global m2 between the end of 2017 and the end of 2024 had it rising by 37.5%. in the same period global gdp in current prices rose by 35.7%. both in us dollars. that doesn't imply a huge mismatch?
i'm comfortable with the case for real assets but that would be on the basis of diversification from the us tech stocks rather than necessarily a structural shift away from the dollar. |
Sorry, who mentioned a structural shift away from the dollar? I may have missed something somewhere.
I am talking countries debasing their currencies across the globe and the total money supply in the world increasing. The richer people are getting money from assets (god forbid I mention Rishi Sunak as 'Gary' has mentioned him so no doubt it would cause offence). Sunak's family gets roughly £30m a year which has to go somewhere and isn't usually kept in cash. That's the basic case for the debasement trade. Richer people get income from their assets and buy more assets. An increase in global money supply ends up mainly in their hands so they buy things like gold, bitcoin, stocks, property, art etc etc
I am not saying they are bad people or that they shouldn't make money on their assets. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:30 - Nov 10 with 630 views | nrb1985 |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:20 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
Sorry, who mentioned a structural shift away from the dollar? I may have missed something somewhere.
I am talking countries debasing their currencies across the globe and the total money supply in the world increasing. The richer people are getting money from assets (god forbid I mention Rishi Sunak as 'Gary' has mentioned him so no doubt it would cause offence). Sunak's family gets roughly £30m a year which has to go somewhere and isn't usually kept in cash. That's the basic case for the debasement trade. Richer people get income from their assets and buy more assets. An increase in global money supply ends up mainly in their hands so they buy things like gold, bitcoin, stocks, property, art etc etc
I am not saying they are bad people or that they shouldn't make money on their assets. |
Except as I posted above, asset prices are going up for reasons completely independent of money supply. AI, Central bank buying etc etc.
Seems you might be a bit confused as to what the "debasement" trade is. As that would entail a fairly sizeable shift away from the dollar.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/roi-debasing-debasement-trade-2025-10-20/
https://ceritypartners.com/insights/debasement-trade-gold-bitcoin-versus-the-dol
Gary is literally telling you that 2+2 equals 6 and it's a complete crock of sh1t.
He is right to some extent that asset prices have been on a tear of late but equally in 2022 they were down 20-30%. And his argument that they are using that money or asset price inflation to then hoard assets like housing is laughable.
Do you think these people are selling their portfolios of Tesla and Nvidia shares etc to buy assets you could have otherwise bought - like a terraced house in Suffolk? I can assure you, from 17 years in private banking they are not.
He is literally filling your head with fking garbage mate. [Post edited 10 Nov 15:31]
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:45 - Nov 10 with 591 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:30 - Nov 10 by nrb1985 |
Except as I posted above, asset prices are going up for reasons completely independent of money supply. AI, Central bank buying etc etc.
Seems you might be a bit confused as to what the "debasement" trade is. As that would entail a fairly sizeable shift away from the dollar.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/roi-debasing-debasement-trade-2025-10-20/
https://ceritypartners.com/insights/debasement-trade-gold-bitcoin-versus-the-dol
Gary is literally telling you that 2+2 equals 6 and it's a complete crock of sh1t.
He is right to some extent that asset prices have been on a tear of late but equally in 2022 they were down 20-30%. And his argument that they are using that money or asset price inflation to then hoard assets like housing is laughable.
Do you think these people are selling their portfolios of Tesla and Nvidia shares etc to buy assets you could have otherwise bought - like a terraced house in Suffolk? I can assure you, from 17 years in private banking they are not.
He is literally filling your head with fking garbage mate. [Post edited 10 Nov 15:31]
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You seem to think I just do whatever he says on his latest Youtube video and do no further research at all...
This may come as a shock but other countries also have money and central banks. You can buy an ounce of gold in China just like you can in the US.
I haven't made any comment on residential property in Suffolk.
You are very angry aren't you? What do you care if I lose money? You play it your way, I will play it mine.
I don't agree with everything Gary says and think in his book, at times, he came across as a bit of a knob. There are certain things I do agree with though and it forms part of my strategy. As I said earlier, what he said about assets was the final piece of a jigsaw in my head, not the entire picture. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:12 - Nov 10 with 542 views | lowhouseblue |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:20 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
Sorry, who mentioned a structural shift away from the dollar? I may have missed something somewhere.
I am talking countries debasing their currencies across the globe and the total money supply in the world increasing. The richer people are getting money from assets (god forbid I mention Rishi Sunak as 'Gary' has mentioned him so no doubt it would cause offence). Sunak's family gets roughly £30m a year which has to go somewhere and isn't usually kept in cash. That's the basic case for the debasement trade. Richer people get income from their assets and buy more assets. An increase in global money supply ends up mainly in their hands so they buy things like gold, bitcoin, stocks, property, art etc etc
I am not saying they are bad people or that they shouldn't make money on their assets. |
but if global money supply is only growing inline with with global gdp how is that generating an asset price bubble? we've been through a period of inflation and money supply has grown consistent with that. the increase in global money supply then is needed to support normal transactions at a now higher level.
i thought the debasement trade was all about the dollar ceasing to be a safe haven and real assets - eg gold - replacing it in that role?
asset prices rise for all sorts of reasons and people with cash then invest to benefit from the expected continuing rise. that's how a bull market works. but it doesn't go on for ever. [Post edited 10 Nov 16:15]
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| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:18 - Nov 10 with 522 views | DJR |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 13:47 - Nov 10 by LutherBlissett |
Can we get back to talking about mince fat ratios, please?
I was enjoying that. |
Given the turn it has taken, I did wonder what my contribution had been, but ! am pleased to say that it related to mince/fat ratios.  |  | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:19 - Nov 10 with 519 views | TheBlueGnu |
The cost of living crisis can be tracked back to just one event in time. That event being when Fred Gee (played by Fred Feast) Rover car rolled into the lake in Coronation Street during 1983. The cost of retreiving the car made everything associated with it spiral in cost, and the knock on effect hasn't stopped since. | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:21 - Nov 10 with 515 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:12 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
but if global money supply is only growing inline with with global gdp how is that generating an asset price bubble? we've been through a period of inflation and money supply has grown consistent with that. the increase in global money supply then is needed to support normal transactions at a now higher level.
i thought the debasement trade was all about the dollar ceasing to be a safe haven and real assets - eg gold - replacing it in that role?
asset prices rise for all sorts of reasons and people with cash then invest to benefit from the expected continuing rise. that's how a bull market works. but it doesn't go on for ever. [Post edited 10 Nov 16:15]
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We may be talking about two different things here. The follow is AI generated but explains it how I mean it:
Currency debasement is the process of reducing a currency's value. Traditionally, this involved decreasing the amount of precious metal in coins. In modern economies with fiat currencies, it occurs through the excessive increase of the money supply, typically by a government or central bank, without a corresponding increase in economic output.
Modern Method: Today, with paper money and digital currency (fiat currency), debasement involves increasing the money supply through actions such as:
"Printing money" (or creating digital money electronically).
Large-scale government deficit spending that is financed by borrowing from the central bank (debt monetization).
Keeping interest rates artificially low to encourage borrowing and spending.
Consequences of Debasement
The primary consequence of debasement is inflation, which is a general rise in prices and a decline in the purchasing power of the currency.
Erosion of Purchasing Power: As more money circulates without an equal increase in goods and services, each unit of currency buys less.
Economic Instability: Persistent debasement can lead to hyperinflation and a loss of public confidence in the currency and the government's economic management.
Shift to Hard Assets: To protect their wealth from the eroding value of fiat currency, investors often rotate toward "hard assets" that cannot be easily diluted, such as gold, silver, real estate, and commodities.
Impact on Savings and Debt: While it reduces the real value of existing government debt, it also erodes the value of citizens' savings and fixed-income assets (like pensions). | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:22 - Nov 10 with 509 views | TheBlueGnu |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 08:02 - Nov 10 by Zx1988 |
Re the 'why' question:
I know it sounds like the glib, easy answer, but I'm pretty sure it's because retailers know that they can get away with it.
Consumers bore the Covid-inflicted price increases (and those brought about by Russia invading Ukraine) with a few murmurs of discontent, but still carried on regardless.
Now there isn't such upward pressure on prices, retailers know that they can keep nudging things upwards, mutter some weasel words about inflation, and people will still keep on buying. |
It's all down to one thing and one think only - easily summed up in one word..... GREED | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:32 - Nov 10 with 487 views | BlueBoots |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 08:33 - Nov 10 by Benters |
Yep it’s gone up and the food portion has got smaller.
I purchased a box of Viennese whirls from the local Tescos Express the other day,and each whirl was not much bigger than a £2 coin! |
Reluctant to raise the price, make the product smaller and hope the customer doesn't notice - Shrinkflation
Reluctant to raise the price, make the product using cheaper ingredients and hope the customer doesn't notice - Skimpflation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86737yg3jlo
If you like a lot of chocolate flavoured coating on your biscuit, join our Club |  |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:53 - Nov 10 with 428 views | mellowblue |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 09:10 - Nov 10 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Presumably all those price rises due to covid, pressure on shipping containers and whatever, say in the cost of building materials have been reversed now? |
cost of building materials certainly never went down, still creeping up if anything. | | | |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:57 - Nov 10 with 413 views | lowhouseblue |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:21 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
We may be talking about two different things here. The follow is AI generated but explains it how I mean it:
Currency debasement is the process of reducing a currency's value. Traditionally, this involved decreasing the amount of precious metal in coins. In modern economies with fiat currencies, it occurs through the excessive increase of the money supply, typically by a government or central bank, without a corresponding increase in economic output.
Modern Method: Today, with paper money and digital currency (fiat currency), debasement involves increasing the money supply through actions such as:
"Printing money" (or creating digital money electronically).
Large-scale government deficit spending that is financed by borrowing from the central bank (debt monetization).
Keeping interest rates artificially low to encourage borrowing and spending.
Consequences of Debasement
The primary consequence of debasement is inflation, which is a general rise in prices and a decline in the purchasing power of the currency.
Erosion of Purchasing Power: As more money circulates without an equal increase in goods and services, each unit of currency buys less.
Economic Instability: Persistent debasement can lead to hyperinflation and a loss of public confidence in the currency and the government's economic management.
Shift to Hard Assets: To protect their wealth from the eroding value of fiat currency, investors often rotate toward "hard assets" that cannot be easily diluted, such as gold, silver, real estate, and commodities.
Impact on Savings and Debt: While it reduces the real value of existing government debt, it also erodes the value of citizens' savings and fixed-income assets (like pensions). |
ok, money supply rises are associated with inflation. we've seen that with global money supply and global gdp in current prices rising in tandem. that's uncontroversial. equally, inflation is bad for assets with fixed prices so in periods of inflation investors adapt their strategies and rotate towards the assets you have listed in the hope of finding some protection against inflation. even more so in a bull market when the price of those assets is rising and many expect that to continue. again uncontroversial. traditionally the dollar has been a safe haven assts and in times of imnstability, including inflation, internationally investors have held dollar assets and treasuries for that reason. i thought what was considered now to be new was an exodus from the dollar with people holding gold etc instead - hence an explanation for the spike in gold prices.
an ai answers to what is the debasement trade is: "The debasement trade implies a shift away from the dollar and U.S. Treasury bills and toward precious metals like gold." | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 17:15 - Nov 10 with 396 views | JammyDodgerrr |
Only one I know about is coffee - basically the climate crisis is killing the coffee trade. Getting less and less time to grow/harvest the beans. I can't find it now but the trajectory it's on - there will be basically be no chance of harvesting any coffee in the not too distant future.
It's at an all time high and is only going to keep going up. |  |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 17:29 - Nov 10 with 367 views | noggin |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 15:45 - Nov 10 by J2BLUE |
You seem to think I just do whatever he says on his latest Youtube video and do no further research at all...
This may come as a shock but other countries also have money and central banks. You can buy an ounce of gold in China just like you can in the US.
I haven't made any comment on residential property in Suffolk.
You are very angry aren't you? What do you care if I lose money? You play it your way, I will play it mine.
I don't agree with everything Gary says and think in his book, at times, he came across as a bit of a knob. There are certain things I do agree with though and it forms part of my strategy. As I said earlier, what he said about assets was the final piece of a jigsaw in my head, not the entire picture. |
Regardless of the technicalities, the super rich are getting significantly richer, while everyone else has to deal with this cost of living crisis, suggesting the working class are losing spending power. GS is obviously right in saying that if this continues, we are heading to the wealth inequality seen in Victorian times. Why should we accept that? | |
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| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 17:48 - Nov 10 with 323 views | J2BLUE |
| The "cost of living crisis" just continues. on 16:57 - Nov 10 by lowhouseblue |
ok, money supply rises are associated with inflation. we've seen that with global money supply and global gdp in current prices rising in tandem. that's uncontroversial. equally, inflation is bad for assets with fixed prices so in periods of inflation investors adapt their strategies and rotate towards the assets you have listed in the hope of finding some protection against inflation. even more so in a bull market when the price of those assets is rising and many expect that to continue. again uncontroversial. traditionally the dollar has been a safe haven assts and in times of imnstability, including inflation, internationally investors have held dollar assets and treasuries for that reason. i thought what was considered now to be new was an exodus from the dollar with people holding gold etc instead - hence an explanation for the spike in gold prices.
an ai answers to what is the debasement trade is: "The debasement trade implies a shift away from the dollar and U.S. Treasury bills and toward precious metals like gold." |
The dollar is one part of it.
This is from Bloomberg and is my definition of it:
What is the debasement trade?
Sell government debt, as well as currencies like the dollar, yen and euro. Buy gold, silver and crypto. In a nutshell, that’s the “debasement trade” that’s become the talk of the town.
It’s essentially a bet that the value of sovereign debt, and the currencies they are denominated in, will be eroded over time as governments avoid tackling their massive debt burdens and even add to them. The term debasement is a reference to when rulers such as King Henry VIII and Nero diluted or debased their gold and silver coins with cheaper metals such as copper.
The worry is that central banks will be pressured to hold down interest rates to offset what their governments owe — and in the process fan inflation by continuing to crank out cash.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-14/the-debasement-trade-is-wa | |
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