| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything 09:18 - Nov 13 with 1917 views | thebooks |
This is a really important bit of research, I think:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/13/who-votes-for-reform-and-why-ch
TLDR: Reform is on course to win the next election (inc. both Ipswich seats), but its voter base is wildly varied (like Trump's).
Lab saying there's no money to fix anything while waving flags and trying to be reasonably racist will gift Farage the election.
It is partly reassuring to hear that immigration isn't actually the most important issue for all Reform voters, however it might seem on social media, the news, wherever.
Farage will have problems keeping any coalition together once in power (again, like Trump), but a weak,unpopular opposition (for Dems read the current Labour party) will only help him. |  | | |  |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 with 1264 views | noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:30 - Nov 13 with 1236 views | iamatractorboy |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
The one that really made me scratch my head was 'Reluctant Reformers':
'Pragmatic and fairness-driven, they value competence, stability and public services – especially the NHS.'
They're going to vote for Reform to protect/improve the NHS?!?! I mean... good grief. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:35 - Nov 13 with 1208 views | LutherBlissett |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:30 - Nov 13 by iamatractorboy |
The one that really made me scratch my head was 'Reluctant Reformers':
'Pragmatic and fairness-driven, they value competence, stability and public services – especially the NHS.'
They're going to vote for Reform to protect/improve the NHS?!?! I mean... good grief. |
And Kent has shown how competent they are.
They made the Handforth parish council look like elder statesmen. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:36 - Nov 13 with 1202 views | exeterblue10 |
How can 10% of Contrarian Youth be over the age of 55, or did I misunderstand something?! | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:37 - Nov 13 with 1194 views | iamatractorboy |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:36 - Nov 13 by exeterblue10 |
How can 10% of Contrarian Youth be over the age of 55, or did I misunderstand something?! |
I spotted that too. They're obviously so contrarian they're not even youths. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:37 - Nov 13 with 1194 views | homer_123 |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
I would suggest that confidence on our two existing main parties is so low that people think 'it can't get worse'.
It's a slippery slope, that. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:38 - Nov 13 with 1182 views | LutherBlissett |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:36 - Nov 13 by exeterblue10 |
How can 10% of Contrarian Youth be over the age of 55, or did I misunderstand something?! |
Sonic Youth are all over 60. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:41 - Nov 13 with 1159 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
The mainstream media appear to be 'scared' to call out Reform for what they are and in response giving them more airtime than a party of 5 MPs ever deserves.
Rumours of Farage resigning over the last few weeks too. Do Reform even poll anywhere near 15% without him?
Having such a fractured support base, could end up being what loses it for them too. Who are they talking to? They can't be everything to all those listed in that Guardian research.
But agree, a protest vote is fine in a local election or a one off by-election. But giving Reform 300+ MPs, when the current 5 are apparently the best of the best is a worry. |  | | |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:41 - Nov 13 with 1155 views | MattinLondon |
Fortunately the next election isn’t for another three years so hopefully a lot may change as a Reform government will be a complete and utter disaster.
Labour need to change leader and reconnect with their core voters rather than be Reform Lite. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:46 - Nov 13 with 1113 views | BlueBadger |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:41 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
The mainstream media appear to be 'scared' to call out Reform for what they are and in response giving them more airtime than a party of 5 MPs ever deserves.
Rumours of Farage resigning over the last few weeks too. Do Reform even poll anywhere near 15% without him?
Having such a fractured support base, could end up being what loses it for them too. Who are they talking to? They can't be everything to all those listed in that Guardian research.
But agree, a protest vote is fine in a local election or a one off by-election. But giving Reform 300+ MPs, when the current 5 are apparently the best of the best is a worry. |
The people of Kent are, right now, finding out how 'fine' a protest vote is. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:48 - Nov 13 with 1112 views | thebooks |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
Yeah, I agree, but the answer's in the research:
- Cost of living (even for middle income earners)
- A smallish actual rightwing vote
- A sense that Lab and the Tories simply don't offer any answers to the above (which is fair enough - they don't)
So it's not a protest vote as such, more a roll of the dice.
As we can see with Trump, it soon falls apart. Maybe that example will make people think twice, but I doubt it. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:49 - Nov 13 with 1104 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:41 - Nov 13 by MattinLondon |
Fortunately the next election isn’t for another three years so hopefully a lot may change as a Reform government will be a complete and utter disaster.
Labour need to change leader and reconnect with their core voters rather than be Reform Lite. |
The right-wing media appear to be agitating for an election if Starmer is toppled. Saying it's the "only fair thing to do"
Because that's what they Tories did when they changed leader every 18 months 
Labour should keep to the 5 year cycle and simply ride out the noise. It's going to take a lot of pain/work to undo 14 years of corruption and sh!thousing of a Tory Government. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:53 - Nov 13 with 1071 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:48 - Nov 13 by thebooks |
Yeah, I agree, but the answer's in the research:
- Cost of living (even for middle income earners)
- A smallish actual rightwing vote
- A sense that Lab and the Tories simply don't offer any answers to the above (which is fair enough - they don't)
So it's not a protest vote as such, more a roll of the dice.
As we can see with Trump, it soon falls apart. Maybe that example will make people think twice, but I doubt it. |
The "don't have the answers" thing is interesting though.
Reform (or any party) would inherit the same issues, with the same legal system and same structures.
If we want better public services, we need to invest more in it. Reform have bluntly said they would cut more, so how does that work?
The media dressing up Reform as 'something new' like the media did with Trump in 2016 in the USA have a huge burden to bear if something similar happens here.
Reform aren't 'something new', they are run by people who weren't good enough or were too crazy for the current incarnation of the Tory party. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:54 - Nov 13 with 1053 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:46 - Nov 13 by BlueBadger |
The people of Kent are, right now, finding out how 'fine' a protest vote is. |
It's Kent though, so they always have to test 'WMDs' somewhere | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:57 - Nov 13 with 1044 views | djgooder |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:37 - Nov 13 by homer_123 |
I would suggest that confidence on our two existing main parties is so low that people think 'it can't get worse'.
It's a slippery slope, that. |
I was thinking the same.
But also we have swung massively left, including the conservatives in last few decades this will be a massive over correction should it happen. Although Brexit was a complete opposite swing in the middle.
Worries me we will just keep swinging back and forth in future years. Truth is we need a centre party. But everything is so polarised these days, if you are not left you are right and vice a versa. There is no compromise or reasoning. All very American. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:59 - Nov 13 with 1027 views | thebooks |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:53 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
The "don't have the answers" thing is interesting though.
Reform (or any party) would inherit the same issues, with the same legal system and same structures.
If we want better public services, we need to invest more in it. Reform have bluntly said they would cut more, so how does that work?
The media dressing up Reform as 'something new' like the media did with Trump in 2016 in the USA have a huge burden to bear if something similar happens here.
Reform aren't 'something new', they are run by people who weren't good enough or were too crazy for the current incarnation of the Tory party. |
I couldn't agree more. Economically, Reform are in Liz Truss world, and their counsellors and MPs tend to be deranged, the scragglers from other parties.
But that doesn't change the fact that Lab offer absolutely nothing. Take Jack Abbott. What does he stand for? Or actually do? How is voting for him improving my life in any meaningful way?
An offer of "we're not as crap as Reform but we'll try and be as racist as them" is pathetic. In that context, a vote for Reform is worth a punt. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:02 - Nov 13 with 1000 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:57 - Nov 13 by djgooder |
I was thinking the same.
But also we have swung massively left, including the conservatives in last few decades this will be a massive over correction should it happen. Although Brexit was a complete opposite swing in the middle.
Worries me we will just keep swinging back and forth in future years. Truth is we need a centre party. But everything is so polarised these days, if you are not left you are right and vice a versa. There is no compromise or reasoning. All very American. |
We've swung massively left?
The current Labour party are very much central, despite what the RW media portray or even Labour maybe try to pretend to be. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:04 - Nov 13 with 994 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:59 - Nov 13 by thebooks |
I couldn't agree more. Economically, Reform are in Liz Truss world, and their counsellors and MPs tend to be deranged, the scragglers from other parties.
But that doesn't change the fact that Lab offer absolutely nothing. Take Jack Abbott. What does he stand for? Or actually do? How is voting for him improving my life in any meaningful way?
An offer of "we're not as crap as Reform but we'll try and be as racist as them" is pathetic. In that context, a vote for Reform is worth a punt. |
Hopefully Labour can spend the next 3 1/2 years getting their messaging straight.
Reform will struggle to keep it together for the rest of this parliament given they normally have some scandal or another to an MP every 6 months and they've only got 5 to burn through. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:05 - Nov 13 with 987 views | Radlett_blue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:37 - Nov 13 by homer_123 |
I would suggest that confidence on our two existing main parties is so low that people think 'it can't get worse'.
It's a slippery slope, that. |
Indeed, the UK, like most of the developed west, faces structural problems - globalisation has reduced economic growth, plus an ageing population. We need to decide if we want to become a Scandinavian style high tax socialist country (people rarely vote for tax increases) or else make huge cuts to benefits & entitlements. Labour have shown they can't begin to tackle spending, so they need to raise taxes. The Tories have also generally muddled along the middle. While Reform don't have answers, many ordinary working people feel they might as well roll the dice with them, rather like the Americans did with Trump. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:05 - Nov 13 with 982 views | Steve_M |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:46 - Nov 13 by BlueBadger |
The people of Kent are, right now, finding out how 'fine' a protest vote is. |
Well, quite. A good three years before the next election too, there's an awful lot going to change in that time. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:16 - Nov 13 with 932 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:49 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
The right-wing media appear to be agitating for an election if Starmer is toppled. Saying it's the "only fair thing to do"
Because that's what they Tories did when they changed leader every 18 months
Labour should keep to the 5 year cycle and simply ride out the noise. It's going to take a lot of pain/work to undo 14 years of corruption and sh!thousing of a Tory Government. |
Not just the right wing media. In order to quell dissent in the ranks, Downing Street is briefing that there would have to be an election if Starmer is toppled. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:17 - Nov 13 with 925 views | onceablue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
If Labour want to win the next election they must get rid of Starmer.
Starmer is the most hated PM in history.
I know many Labour voters who have said they will never vote Labour whilst Starmer is still in charge.
Starmer has to stop blaming the previous government for everything people even some labour voters are sick of it.
Imagine McKenna taking over as manager and we loose every week for 17 months and his excuse every week is I inherited a poor side regardless he would have been sacked by now | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:18 - Nov 13 with 928 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:16 - Nov 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Not just the right wing media. In order to quell dissent in the ranks, Downing Street is briefing that there would have to be an election if Starmer is toppled. |
They are simply using the RW media's talking point to try and ssssh the dissenters.
No-one truly believes they are going to throw away another 3 1/2 years of power. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:20 - Nov 13 with 906 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:17 - Nov 13 by onceablue |
If Labour want to win the next election they must get rid of Starmer.
Starmer is the most hated PM in history.
I know many Labour voters who have said they will never vote Labour whilst Starmer is still in charge.
Starmer has to stop blaming the previous government for everything people even some labour voters are sick of it.
Imagine McKenna taking over as manager and we loose every week for 17 months and his excuse every week is I inherited a poor side regardless he would have been sacked by now |
"The most hated PM in history"?
It's this type GB News rhetoric that makes it all such a nonsense.
Given how slow policies at this national level have an impact and the fiscal drag of some decisions, it is very true that Tory policies are still having to be unpicked and are still having a significant effect. | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:26 - Nov 13 with 867 views | Guthrum |
People want a quick, easy solution to the cost of living crisis that does not cost them, personally, anything.
Those who deny such a thing exists will struggle against rivals prepared to promise the unrealistic. |  |
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