| Striker in Jan? 21:56 - Nov 22 with 2857 views | Fabianski |
My god we need a finisher in the January window - play offs at risk if we don’t sign someone who can finish these chances… is it time for another call to Carrot Rd? |  | | |  |
| Striker in Jan? on 22:00 - Nov 22 with 2209 views | TrumptonBlue |
What, to ask about the fella who hasn’t scored since August? |  | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 22:00 - Nov 22 with 2203 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
This has been said for ever since McKenna got here (if not before). Is Ronald McDonald the answer? I am sure there are better options out there but the difficulty has always been getting them over the line. I really don't think the nodge owners would sell to us again so going after him would be a waste of our time. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 22:02 - Nov 22 with 2175 views | MrPotatoHead |
To be fair to the current ones they haven’t had a lot to finish. |  | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:21 - Nov 22 with 1944 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 22:02 - Nov 22 by MrPotatoHead |
To be fair to the current ones they haven’t had a lot to finish. |
I disagree - and the data backs this up. We’re creating plenty of chances, but not taking them. One such data point (and there are several others to corroborate this) is xG, putting us only 2nd to Coventry. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:23 - Nov 22 with 1935 views | MrPotatoHead |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:21 - Nov 22 by SuffolkPunchFC |
I disagree - and the data backs this up. We’re creating plenty of chances, but not taking them. One such data point (and there are several others to corroborate this) is xG, putting us only 2nd to Coventry. |
You can talk of ‘data points’ but how many chances did Azon get today? We created the square root of fook all. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 00:02 - Nov 23 with 1851 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:23 - Nov 22 by MrPotatoHead |
You can talk of ‘data points’ but how many chances did Azon get today? We created the square root of fook all. |
Azon had a couple of chances, though that’s not the point. We don’t only rely on the no. 9 to score goals, and have been creating plenty of chances for the ‘attackers’ - and many good ones at that. We’re just not talking enough of them. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 02:16 - Nov 23 with 1760 views | Illinoisblue |
We seem to have been striker shopping in January every season since 2014/15. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 06:03 - Nov 23 with 1651 views | ernie |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:21 - Nov 22 by SuffolkPunchFC |
I disagree - and the data backs this up. We’re creating plenty of chances, but not taking them. One such data point (and there are several others to corroborate this) is xG, putting us only 2nd to Coventry. |
Rubbish- where were all the clear cut chances we created yesterday? | | | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 06:27 - Nov 23 with 1622 views | franz_tyson |
| Striker in Jan? on 06:03 - Nov 23 by ernie |
Rubbish- where were all the clear cut chances we created yesterday? |
Exactly. I just remember the McAteer chance.
People take xg data as gospel, but no one really knows what it is, who creates it, how accurate it is.
We might have to think of ways to create chances other than bringing in a new 10 or 9.
Improve our corners/ free kicks. Shooting from distance. Improve crossing ( beating the first defender).
Aren't we a side that is supposed to be well coached? [Post edited 23 Nov 7:05]
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| Striker in Jan? on 07:33 - Nov 23 with 1506 views | NthQldITFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 23:23 - Nov 22 by MrPotatoHead |
You can talk of ‘data points’ but how many chances did Azon get today? We created the square root of fook all. |
Although, to be fair, 'the data' is the best representation of the reality, rather than a woolly phrase like 'fook all'.
These three things are true:
1. We have the second highest xG in the Championship - we are creating a lot of chances.
2. Our finishing has been poor to middling.
3. We are a top Championship squad and we all, rightly, feel we should be scoring more goals.
Treating 'data' as some kind of nasty thing, a dark art, rather than one tool to aid understanding, is self-defeating.
(tbf, I've gone in a bit hard on your not too unreasonable post and used it as a target for much worse 'anti-data' posts I've read elsewhere, but I get the feeling you won't mind too much.) |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 08:34 - Nov 23 with 1418 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 06:27 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
Exactly. I just remember the McAteer chance.
People take xg data as gospel, but no one really knows what it is, who creates it, how accurate it is.
We might have to think of ways to create chances other than bringing in a new 10 or 9.
Improve our corners/ free kicks. Shooting from distance. Improve crossing ( beating the first defender).
Aren't we a side that is supposed to be well coached? [Post edited 23 Nov 7:05]
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xG is one of a number of metrics that, when used properly, provide an objective assessment of the game. The ‘eye-test’ is influenced by unconscious bias, and none of us are immune from that.
By taking a step back, and looking at it impartially, for some games the metrics have shown that we’ve been dominant, creating a good number of (often good) chances, but not been clinical enough in many games.
The data does not support the flawed eye-test that we’re not creating enough chances to score. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:44 - Nov 23 with 1375 views | franz_tyson |
| Striker in Jan? on 07:33 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Although, to be fair, 'the data' is the best representation of the reality, rather than a woolly phrase like 'fook all'.
These three things are true:
1. We have the second highest xG in the Championship - we are creating a lot of chances.
2. Our finishing has been poor to middling.
3. We are a top Championship squad and we all, rightly, feel we should be scoring more goals.
Treating 'data' as some kind of nasty thing, a dark art, rather than one tool to aid understanding, is self-defeating.
(tbf, I've gone in a bit hard on your not too unreasonable post and used it as a target for much worse 'anti-data' posts I've read elsewhere, but I get the feeling you won't mind too much.) |
What's wrong with experience, gut feeling, seeing with your blooming own eyes? I think we create less clear-cut chances than 2 seasons ago. Yet XG reckons we're doing well.
I only saw 1 good chance. MCAteer's. So why are we getting told we're creating more chances with an XG figure?
At the end of the day.... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit. So maybe they're not so great at it...... maybe they're a tech wizz or a mathematician, but have never laced up a pair of footy boots before. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:49 - Nov 23 with 1358 views | Herbivore |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:44 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
What's wrong with experience, gut feeling, seeing with your blooming own eyes? I think we create less clear-cut chances than 2 seasons ago. Yet XG reckons we're doing well.
I only saw 1 good chance. MCAteer's. So why are we getting told we're creating more chances with an XG figure?
At the end of the day.... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit. So maybe they're not so great at it...... maybe they're a tech wizz or a mathematician, but have never laced up a pair of footy boots before. |
Goals aren't always scored from clearcut chances, especially at this level where teams will sit deep and not let you get in behind them easily. Even in 2023/24, a lot of our goals weren't coming from clearcut chances. We scored a lot of half chances, quite a few goals from outside the box as well. Our own gut feelings and memories are very prone to bias and influence from the emotion of either doing well or not doing well, hence they aren't a very reliable metric for how many chances we're creating compared to our last season at this level. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 08:56 - Nov 23 with 1334 views | franz_tyson |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:49 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Goals aren't always scored from clearcut chances, especially at this level where teams will sit deep and not let you get in behind them easily. Even in 2023/24, a lot of our goals weren't coming from clearcut chances. We scored a lot of half chances, quite a few goals from outside the box as well. Our own gut feelings and memories are very prone to bias and influence from the emotion of either doing well or not doing well, hence they aren't a very reliable metric for how many chances we're creating compared to our last season at this level. |
Christ....this is worrying.
No offence, but football is still a sport played and watched by people. Not robots.
If we can't rely on our own intuition ... why even bother? Might as well be told about the game via spreadsheets. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 09:01 - Nov 23 with 1316 views | Herbivore |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:56 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
Christ....this is worrying.
No offence, but football is still a sport played and watched by people. Not robots.
If we can't rely on our own intuition ... why even bother? Might as well be told about the game via spreadsheets. |
The people who are saying we are creating chances are watching the same game as you, it's just that their view of it is backed up by the stats and yours isn't. Nobody is saying let's just look at spreadsheets rather than watch games but a lot of people talk a lot of guff about football. That's part of the beauty of it, sure, but people tend to then introduce stats to counter some of the guff when those stats reflect their own eye test and not the eye test of the person they are challenging. | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 09:27 - Nov 23 with 1234 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:49 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Goals aren't always scored from clearcut chances, especially at this level where teams will sit deep and not let you get in behind them easily. Even in 2023/24, a lot of our goals weren't coming from clearcut chances. We scored a lot of half chances, quite a few goals from outside the box as well. Our own gut feelings and memories are very prone to bias and influence from the emotion of either doing well or not doing well, hence they aren't a very reliable metric for how many chances we're creating compared to our last season at this level. |
DELETED - quoted the wrong post. [Post edited 23 Nov 9:29]
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| Striker in Jan? on 09:29 - Nov 23 with 1220 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:44 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
What's wrong with experience, gut feeling, seeing with your blooming own eyes? I think we create less clear-cut chances than 2 seasons ago. Yet XG reckons we're doing well.
I only saw 1 good chance. MCAteer's. So why are we getting told we're creating more chances with an XG figure?
At the end of the day.... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit. So maybe they're not so great at it...... maybe they're a tech wizz or a mathematician, but have never laced up a pair of footy boots before. |
"... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit."
But it's not. That's just a fundamental misunderstanding of how xG, and other match relevant data, is collected and used. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 09:45 - Nov 23 with 1175 views | OldFart71 |
Sorry but in no way is Sargent the answer. Also the Budgies have a pretty good habit of making decent money from players they sell. They would want a minimum £20 million. Is he the answer not only to us getting into the playoffs, but also as a Premier Striker.
I don't think so. Good strikers are like gold dust. Look at Isaak for Liverpool. Look at the players Man Utd have signed.
There's no way that we don't end up in the playoffs at minimum.
Yes we do need to kick on, of that there's no doubt. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 09:56 - Nov 23 with 1128 views | LeoMuff |
| Striker in Jan? on 08:44 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
What's wrong with experience, gut feeling, seeing with your blooming own eyes? I think we create less clear-cut chances than 2 seasons ago. Yet XG reckons we're doing well.
I only saw 1 good chance. MCAteer's. So why are we getting told we're creating more chances with an XG figure?
At the end of the day.... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit. So maybe they're not so great at it...... maybe they're a tech wizz or a mathematician, but have never laced up a pair of footy boots before. |
Think the Akpom chance was also a very good one, though created with a lucky deflection. For me we have very little creativity centrally. Matusiwa is a ball winner, Cajuste either not fit out of form or a defensive liability, Taylor also more of a runner than creator. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 10:00 - Nov 23 with 1113 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 09:29 - Nov 23 by SuffolkPunchFC |
"... its someone's opinion of how good a chance is. A XG person - an actual person - is entering how good a chance is as a digit."
But it's not. That's just a fundamental misunderstanding of how xG, and other match relevant data, is collected and used. |
Explain it then . |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 10:02 - Nov 23 with 1105 views | Pinewoodblue |
Presumably the opinion is that we need a Marcus Stewart signing.
Any recommendation’s? | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 10:03 - Nov 23 with 1103 views | NthQldITFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:00 - Nov 23 by Pinewoodblue |
Explain it then . |
What, again? | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 10:25 - Nov 23 with 1047 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:03 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
What, again? |
Clearly some still don’t understand it.
If when a game ends as a draw an additional point was awarded to the winner on Xg we would be higher up the table. | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 10:27 - Nov 23 with 1027 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:00 - Nov 23 by Pinewoodblue |
Explain it then . |
It has been explained plenty of times on here, and it's easy to do your own research. I don't feel this is an issue of explaining it (yet again), but a struggle by some to comprehend.
Anyone who thinks there is an individual who sits there, subjectively deciding if something was a chance, and the probability of it going in to 2 decimal places, is smoking something very potent. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:30 - Nov 23 with 999 views | franz_tyson |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:27 - Nov 23 by SuffolkPunchFC |
It has been explained plenty of times on here, and it's easy to do your own research. I don't feel this is an issue of explaining it (yet again), but a struggle by some to comprehend.
Anyone who thinks there is an individual who sits there, subjectively deciding if something was a chance, and the probability of it going in to 2 decimal places, is smoking something very potent. |
OK... so what is it... and who ( or what) enters the data? | | | |
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