| Big Chances Missed on 14:19 - Feb 2 with 1693 views | homer_123 |
Shows that Hirst isn't an outlier then. |  |
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| Big Chances Missed on 14:21 - Feb 2 with 1670 views | BloomBlue |
But hold on Adam Armstrong is 2nd, I thought the TWTD experts said we must buy him to convert all those chances we keep missing - I'm confused |  | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 14:26 - Feb 2 with 1633 views | portmanking |
Kin'ell...
Those who scoffed at McBurnie on a free transfer... 11 goals and 5 assists in 20 appearances. 29% shot conversion rate too. Got to be the signing of the season in the Champ, pound-for-pound. |  | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 14:59 - Feb 2 with 1467 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Big Chances Missed on 14:21 - Feb 2 by BloomBlue |
But hold on Adam Armstrong is 2nd, I thought the TWTD experts said we must buy him to convert all those chances we keep missing - I'm confused |
Might be reading the stats wrong, but is it saying armstrong has had all of his expected goal shots on target, compared to hirst who's on 84%
I suppose the question depending on the above could be have southampton scored from those shots on target |  |
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| Big Chances Missed on 15:22 - Feb 2 with 1404 views | SheffordBlue |
| Big Chances Missed on 14:26 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
Kin'ell...
Those who scoffed at McBurnie on a free transfer... 11 goals and 5 assists in 20 appearances. 29% shot conversion rate too. Got to be the signing of the season in the Champ, pound-for-pound. |
Shot conversion rate is a much better stat than Big Chances Missed in my opinion. Haaland has the most Big Chances Missed in the Prem but has a 24% shot conversion rate.
Quite a few names who people have said they would like to see in aren't converting shots at a much better than Hirst is. [Post edited 2 Feb 15:27]
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| Big Chances Missed on 15:31 - Feb 2 with 1337 views | WestStanderLaLaLa |
| Big Chances Missed on 14:26 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
Kin'ell...
Those who scoffed at McBurnie on a free transfer... 11 goals and 5 assists in 20 appearances. 29% shot conversion rate too. Got to be the signing of the season in the Champ, pound-for-pound. |
Overheard a couple of Hull on the way out after our match
Where was McBurnie?
Prison probably |  |
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| Big Chances Missed on 16:33 - Feb 2 with 1189 views | thorpedo |
Jaden Philogene has scored 9 goals from an 'Expected' 3.4. Phenomenal stuff. Clarke also has 12 from an expected 7.1 On the flip side - Azon 'should' have 6 goals but has 2. Akpom should have 4 but has 2. Hirst has 6 from an expected 9.6.
Overall we are about level with our expected goals from our main forward players!
Player Goals Expected
Hirst 6 9.6
Azon 2 6
Akpom 2 4
Philogene 9 3.4
Clarke 12 7.1
31 30.1 |  |
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| Big Chances Missed on 16:46 - Feb 2 with 1125 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Big Chances Missed on 15:31 - Feb 2 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
Overheard a couple of Hull on the way out after our match
Where was McBurnie?
Prison probably |
And this just so succinctly sums up why I didn't want him at the club. | | | |
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:27 - Feb 2 with 1027 views | FrimleyBlue |
Isn't that how many expected goals they should have had per 90 minutes. Theyre top 6 of that because they've had a lot of expected goals per 90
but the issue is they haven;t converted them,
Hirst his XG on target he's 22nd.
Azon xg on target he's 42nd.
Goals scored per 90 - Hirst is 37th, Azon is 97th
So for goals scored, as a side chasing auto promotion, we have two strikers one 37th at scoring in the league and one who's 97th,
So if im right, that kinda shows how poor both have been so go against what you were trying to show? [Post edited 2 Feb 17:31]
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:33 - Feb 2 with 956 views | portmanking |
Someone doesn't understand football data...
Those stats actually reaffirm that Hirst and Azon are two of the least effective forwards.
For Azon's 0.64 xG per game, he's only achieving 0.21.
For Hirst's 0.59 xG per game, he's only achieving 0.37.
Even Akpom's 0.51 xG per game is producing only 0.26.
In fact, only Danny Ings has been more disappointing in that regard among the top forwards in the division. It's a sorry state of affairs, really. So fortunate that Clarke and Jaden have massively outperformed their xG per 90. | | | |
| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:35 - Feb 2 with 921 views | Bloots |
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| "The holy trinity” - TWTD User (Jan 2026) |
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| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:36 - Feb 2 with 902 views | FrimleyBlue |
| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:35 - Feb 2 by Bloots |
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Does that mean ive actually understood it correctly | |
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| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:38 - Feb 2 with 872 views | positivity |
| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:36 - Feb 2 by FrimleyBlue |
Does that mean ive actually understood it correctly |
that's not how i read it | |
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:41 - Feb 2 with 848 views | positivity |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:33 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
Someone doesn't understand football data...
Those stats actually reaffirm that Hirst and Azon are two of the least effective forwards.
For Azon's 0.64 xG per game, he's only achieving 0.21.
For Hirst's 0.59 xG per game, he's only achieving 0.37.
Even Akpom's 0.51 xG per game is producing only 0.26.
In fact, only Danny Ings has been more disappointing in that regard among the top forwards in the division. It's a sorry state of affairs, really. So fortunate that Clarke and Jaden have massively outperformed their xG per 90. |
it shows that hirst and azon are getting in good positions, but finishing poorly (or in azon's case recently, getting their shots saved excellently!).
so they're doing part of their job brilliantly and the other part not so well! | |
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:44 - Feb 2 with 823 views | portmanking |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:41 - Feb 2 by positivity |
it shows that hirst and azon are getting in good positions, but finishing poorly (or in azon's case recently, getting their shots saved excellently!).
so they're doing part of their job brilliantly and the other part not so well! |
It shows that they aren't scoring anywhere as much as they should. That's the bottom line.
As a collective, Hirst, Azon and Akpom have underperformed more than any other forward line in the Champ.
If it wasn't for the xG overperformance of Jaden and Clarke, I dread to think where we'd be in the table. | | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:46 - Feb 2 with 796 views | Smoresy |
| Big Chances Missed on 16:33 - Feb 2 by thorpedo |
Jaden Philogene has scored 9 goals from an 'Expected' 3.4. Phenomenal stuff. Clarke also has 12 from an expected 7.1 On the flip side - Azon 'should' have 6 goals but has 2. Akpom should have 4 but has 2. Hirst has 6 from an expected 9.6.
Overall we are about level with our expected goals from our main forward players!
Player Goals Expected
Hirst 6 9.6
Azon 2 6
Akpom 2 4
Philogene 9 3.4
Clarke 12 7.1
31 30.1 |
There's the nitty-gritty, which supports the eye test. Strikers in good teams miss big chances. Are they scoring enough overall, that's key. We haven't had one with an average conversation rate this season, when adjusted for quality of chances received, let alone above average.
Speak of our L10 position and it's the opposite story. The two balance each other out in truth but they shouldn't, because what Jaden and Clarke have done isn't by luck; we've paid good money for top finishers at this level.
For Azón the only way is up, as he must be rivalling Kyogo for the wooden boot award presently. To his credit, he's racked up a heck of a lot of chances for time on the pitch, which speaks to his movement and tenacity.
Hirst and Armstrong have matched each other this season for how clinical they've been, but Armstrong is consistently on the end of more chances and has played more footy, so his goal tally is higher. | | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:47 - Feb 2 with 775 views | positivity |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:44 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
It shows that they aren't scoring anywhere as much as they should. That's the bottom line.
As a collective, Hirst, Azon and Akpom have underperformed more than any other forward line in the Champ.
If it wasn't for the xG overperformance of Jaden and Clarke, I dread to think where we'd be in the table. |
and yet, they're getting in great positions more than any other frontline in the league, that's promising. just need to get the confidence up and we'll be flying! | |
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:48 - Feb 2 with 761 views | portmanking |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:46 - Feb 2 by Smoresy |
There's the nitty-gritty, which supports the eye test. Strikers in good teams miss big chances. Are they scoring enough overall, that's key. We haven't had one with an average conversation rate this season, when adjusted for quality of chances received, let alone above average.
Speak of our L10 position and it's the opposite story. The two balance each other out in truth but they shouldn't, because what Jaden and Clarke have done isn't by luck; we've paid good money for top finishers at this level.
For Azón the only way is up, as he must be rivalling Kyogo for the wooden boot award presently. To his credit, he's racked up a heck of a lot of chances for time on the pitch, which speaks to his movement and tenacity.
Hirst and Armstrong have matched each other this season for how clinical they've been, but Armstrong is consistently on the end of more chances and has played more footy, so his goal tally is higher. |
Funny you say that, Azon's shot conversion rate is just 5%, only marginally better than the universally ridiculed Kyogo (3.7%). | | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:51 - Feb 2 with 716 views | positivity |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:48 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
Funny you say that, Azon's shot conversion rate is just 5%, only marginally better than the universally ridiculed Kyogo (3.7%). |
better than daka though (£23m before footballer inflation went mad!) | |
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| Big Chances Missed on 17:54 - Feb 2 with 662 views | portmanking |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:47 - Feb 2 by positivity |
and yet, they're getting in great positions more than any other frontline in the league, that's promising. just need to get the confidence up and we'll be flying! |
You and I could get in the positions and rack up xG per 90. It doesn't make us good strikers. It's more a gauge of the quality of chances created for them, IMO. | | | |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:56 - Feb 2 with 627 views | positivity |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:54 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
You and I could get in the positions and rack up xG per 90. It doesn't make us good strikers. It's more a gauge of the quality of chances created for them, IMO. |
no, we couldn't.
takes a lot of footballing nous to get into good positions, often needs a good creator as well, but not always | |
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| Yes…. on 17:57 - Feb 2 with 625 views | Bloots |
| You could still delete this! (n/t) on 17:36 - Feb 2 by FrimleyBlue |
Does that mean ive actually understood it correctly |
….it had to happen eventually!!  | |
| "The holy trinity” - TWTD User (Jan 2026) |
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| Yep, to put it in TWTD terms…. on 17:59 - Feb 2 with 559 views | Bloots |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:54 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
You and I could get in the positions and rack up xG per 90. It doesn't make us good strikers. It's more a gauge of the quality of chances created for them, IMO. |
….they are missing sitters.
Boom. | |
| "The holy trinity” - TWTD User (Jan 2026) |
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| Big Chances Missed on 18:19 - Feb 2 with 415 views | Smoresy |
| Big Chances Missed on 17:54 - Feb 2 by portmanking |
You and I could get in the positions and rack up xG per 90. It doesn't make us good strikers. It's more a gauge of the quality of chances created for them, IMO. |
I think there is much to be said for movement, intelligence, energy and so on, wouldn't dismiss those bits, but you're also right to qualify it. No Wednesday striker is troubling the xG or real G columns this year bless them. Missing sitters is the biggest piece of our puzzle no doubt. | | | |
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