| Boro having a hell of a wobble 16:41 - Apr 3 with 1904 views | Dubtractor |
2 points from the last 4, no wins from the last 5 home games (Oxford, Leicester, Charlton, Bristol City and Millwall).
We just need to hold our nerve, keep winning or drawing, and hopefully Millwall will run out of steam. Millwall have a run of games at the end that looks great in the middle of the season, but will throw up odd results at the business end of the season against the relegation battling teams.
Hold tight! |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:50 - Apr 3 with 1842 views | ITFC_Forever |
Boro’s last home win was against the Budgies in late January. |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:56 - Apr 3 with 1783 views | GlasgowBlue |
It's really weird because Boro have been playing well in recent games but they just can't score.
They had 32 shots today, 19 in the first half. And an xG of 3.12. That's been pretty much where they have been during this winless run.
Hope they don't find their scoring boots against us. [Post edited 3 Apr 17:33]
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:58 - Apr 3 with 1781 views | andyblue231 |
the home game against Boro is one of the ones I feel most confident about. I think they've absolutely gone, mentally. |  | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:00 - Apr 3 with 1751 views | Dubtractor |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:56 - Apr 3 by GlasgowBlue |
It's really weird because Boro have been playing well in recent games but they just can't score.
They had 32 shots today, 19 in the first half. And an xG of 3.12. That's been pretty much where they have been during this winless run.
Hope they don't find their scoring boots against us. [Post edited 3 Apr 17:33]
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Them and us both seem to struggle to put games to bed when on top. | |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:07 - Apr 3 with 1691 views | Stenvict |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:58 - Apr 3 by andyblue231 |
the home game against Boro is one of the ones I feel most confident about. I think they've absolutely gone, mentally. |
I'm the opposite. They seem to do well away from home. They play quick counter attacking football, which we struggle against, as seen at theirs earlier in the season. Aiden Morris is excellent at breaking the lines. The only saving grace is they can't seem to finish their chances. | |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:08 - Apr 3 with 1686 views | Bellevue_Blue |
Millwall have done really really well the last few weeks but they have rode their luck a little bit on the XG front.
That does tend to right itself eventually and they will stop putting everything in the back of the net.
Might help that they will have to go on the front foot over the next 6 games. | | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:28 - Apr 3 with 1557 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
If we finish below them we don’t deserve it. Awful return for them for a while. |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:31 - Apr 3 with 1542 views | jas0999 |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:58 - Apr 3 by andyblue231 |
the home game against Boro is one of the ones I feel most confident about. I think they've absolutely gone, mentally. |
Birmingham at home should be straight forward as well. Already seem to be on the beach and have lost twelve on the road already … | | | |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:40 - Apr 3 with 1501 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 16:56 - Apr 3 by GlasgowBlue |
It's really weird because Boro have been playing well in recent games but they just can't score.
They had 32 shots today, 19 in the first half. And an xG of 3.12. That's been pretty much where they have been during this winless run.
Hope they don't find their scoring boots against us. [Post edited 3 Apr 17:33]
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It’s unreal and people will write them off just like how folks did with Cov “bottling it”. I think today was a very good result for us, if they won this game with Hackney coming back they’d be looking in fairly good shape. Seems like the kind of rut where one win could change everything. | |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:48 - Apr 3 with 1437 views | _CliveBaker_ |
2 wins in their last 9. Pretty poor really. |  | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:01 - Apr 3 with 1332 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
We need to finish top 2 because Southampton are getting the play off place! |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:09 - Apr 3 with 1272 views | bsw72 |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 17:08 - Apr 3 by Bellevue_Blue |
Millwall have done really really well the last few weeks but they have rode their luck a little bit on the XG front.
That does tend to right itself eventually and they will stop putting everything in the back of the net.
Might help that they will have to go on the front foot over the next 6 games. |
I remember how we felt being called lucky in our promotion push.
It’s not luck from Millwall, they are playing to their strengths as a unit. |  | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:32 - Apr 3 with 1170 views | BouncebackIpswich |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:09 - Apr 3 by bsw72 |
I remember how we felt being called lucky in our promotion push.
It’s not luck from Millwall, they are playing to their strengths as a unit. |
As per the thread I've just made much more concerned than Millwall than Boro at this point. Confident we will finish about Boro at this point but struggling to see past Millwall as favourites.
However as has been pointed out their run in would have been a lot easier a couple of months ago now the teams down there are scrapping for their lives so who knows.
3 points against Brum an absolute must now no it's or buts.
As you say strap in for the ride!! |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 19:05 - Apr 3 with 1044 views | Bellevue_Blue |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:09 - Apr 3 by bsw72 |
I remember how we felt being called lucky in our promotion push.
It’s not luck from Millwall, they are playing to their strengths as a unit. |
I didn't say it was lucky, I said they are riding their luck.
They've conceded 69 shots on their goal in the last 3 games at an XG of 6.92 and conceded 4 goals.
Clearly a brilliant counter attacking team as you say who take all their chances but they are absolutely riding their luck at the other end of the pitch. [Post edited 3 Apr 19:09]
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 20:47 - Apr 3 with 850 views | Blue_Moses |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 19:05 - Apr 3 by Bellevue_Blue |
I didn't say it was lucky, I said they are riding their luck.
They've conceded 69 shots on their goal in the last 3 games at an XG of 6.92 and conceded 4 goals.
Clearly a brilliant counter attacking team as you say who take all their chances but they are absolutely riding their luck at the other end of the pitch. [Post edited 3 Apr 19:09]
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I get what you are saying, I commented to friends earlier that they could have easily been 3 down at half time against us and Boro. Having said that we weren't that concerned about defending when we went up. | | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 21:18 - Apr 3 with 735 views | bsw72 |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 19:05 - Apr 3 by Bellevue_Blue |
I didn't say it was lucky, I said they are riding their luck.
They've conceded 69 shots on their goal in the last 3 games at an XG of 6.92 and conceded 4 goals.
Clearly a brilliant counter attacking team as you say who take all their chances but they are absolutely riding their luck at the other end of the pitch. [Post edited 3 Apr 19:09]
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Not sure that talking about riding your luck and being lucky are hugely different apart from one being a state and one being an action but with a similar intent and outcome. | | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 21:20 - Apr 3 with 720 views | iamatractorboy |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 18:09 - Apr 3 by bsw72 |
I remember how we felt being called lucky in our promotion push.
It’s not luck from Millwall, they are playing to their strengths as a unit. |
On the evidence of their games against us and Boro, they are absolutely brilliant at defending as a team and throwing bodies in front of the ball. Heroic defending but not sustainable long term. Whether 7 more games count as long term or not I'm not sure. I would make them a lot more likely to go up than the bookies have had them though. | | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 11:03 - Apr 4 with 284 views | Radlett_blue |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 20:47 - Apr 3 by Blue_Moses |
I get what you are saying, I commented to friends earlier that they could have easily been 3 down at half time against us and Boro. Having said that we weren't that concerned about defending when we went up. |
But Millwall weren't 3 down against us or Boro. Once a team takes a lead in a game, the game usually changes. Millwall changed their set up at PR and then the pattern of the game changed & while we have better players than them, they deserved their point. While I would be appalled if Millwall finished above us, if they get more points than us they deserve it more than us, whatever the aesthetics. Neil is getting the maximum out of a fairly average bunch of players and they seem mentally very strong. |  |
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 11:36 - Apr 4 with 213 views | RonFearonsHair |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 11:03 - Apr 4 by Radlett_blue |
But Millwall weren't 3 down against us or Boro. Once a team takes a lead in a game, the game usually changes. Millwall changed their set up at PR and then the pattern of the game changed & while we have better players than them, they deserved their point. While I would be appalled if Millwall finished above us, if they get more points than us they deserve it more than us, whatever the aesthetics. Neil is getting the maximum out of a fairly average bunch of players and they seem mentally very strong. |
This is where stats like xG fall down. It doesn’t take into account the story of a game. If an earlier chance is converted a team can end up on a lower xG than they would otherwise have because they are no longer chasing a goal with such urgency and have a lead to preserve. |  | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 12:57 - Apr 4 with 122 views | Bellevue_Blue |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 11:36 - Apr 4 by RonFearonsHair |
This is where stats like xG fall down. It doesn’t take into account the story of a game. If an earlier chance is converted a team can end up on a lower xG than they would otherwise have because they are no longer chasing a goal with such urgency and have a lead to preserve. |
Isn't that the case for every stat? They can also end up with less possession, fewer shots, fewer shots on target, less territory etc if they are no longer chasing a goal with such urgency and have a lead to preserve.
All xG is there to show you is the probability of a shot or shots wether you face a lot or a little.
The fact they have conceded 6.92 xG against in the last three games shows you that they are conceding lots of shots or high quality chances on their goal regardless of the game situation. [Post edited 4 Apr 13:00]
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| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 13:13 - Apr 4 with 72 views | RonFearonsHair |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 12:57 - Apr 4 by Bellevue_Blue |
Isn't that the case for every stat? They can also end up with less possession, fewer shots, fewer shots on target, less territory etc if they are no longer chasing a goal with such urgency and have a lead to preserve.
All xG is there to show you is the probability of a shot or shots wether you face a lot or a little.
The fact they have conceded 6.92 xG against in the last three games shows you that they are conceding lots of shots or high quality chances on their goal regardless of the game situation. [Post edited 4 Apr 13:00]
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You're right, I should have added 'in isolation'.
I have a similar bugbear when people bang on about possession being a marker of how even teams were in a match. If a team takes a lead, particularly if they are already a favourite, they are often more likely to be happy to concede possession and invite the opposition to try to attack them to increase the space in their back line to exploit.
"The fact they have conceded 6.92 xG against in the last three games shows you that they are conceding high quality chances on their goal regardless of the game situation."
The xG stats on a game can often be quite wildly different depending on which source you use which undermines it somewhat. If a team backs themselves to defend deep and do it effectively then they are more likely to concede 'good' chances. I would suggest that Millwall play this way deliberately because it works for them. They have good defenders who work extremely well together to minimise the risk of these chances being converted. I don't think it is a coincidence that their game yesterday played out so similarly to the one at Portman Road.
I would agree that the lack of control they are able to exert over significant portions of the game can leave them more vulnerable to their plan breaking down. But I think this is a case of an excellent manager working with what he has and trying to get the best out of them.
I think xG can be useful to help build up an overall picture of a game but more often than not it only seems to confirm what we were already able to derive from combining stats that already existed. | | | |
| Boro having a hell of a wobble on 13:44 - Apr 4 with 32 views | Swansea_Blue |
We’ve all been focussed on the Boro game being the most important 6 pointer, yet we may ready of already had that in our last match against Millwall. Throwing that away after a ridiculously dominant first half could well end up being the difference between us going up or them. Or obviously it may not. This on’s too close to call. |  |
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