| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then 15:28 - Apr 12 with 2573 views | tractorboy1978 |
What a position to be in. And to honest I will be surprised if 83 isn’t enough, so 8 more points. |  | | |  |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:27 - Apr 12 with 453 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:22 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
I understood your original point and I'm aware of Southampton's form. I stated I disagreed, repeating it doesn't change that logically good form follows poor form and any of the teams, with points in the bag, are capable of winning 4 games in a row, regardless of their current form. |
This good/bad/good form logic is ignoring squad depth and why some of our rivals might actually be falling off, whereas a parachute team is going along like a freight train. Boro would have to come here and win next weekend as well. |  |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:28 - Apr 12 with 452 views | pointofblue |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 16:27 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I hope we can refocus quickly after the emotion and euphoria of yesterday. McKenna is the man for the job when it comes to those things. Pompey have traveled and had their backs to wall for 96 minutes yesterday defending so hopefully they’ll be fairly exhausted. Never an easy place to go but if we win, it will be another huge step.
I genuinely think if get 3 points at FP we’d almost be there, essentially it would be 2 wins in 5 needed after that. [Post edited 12 Apr 16:29]
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Plus surely Portsmouth will have at least one eye on the Leicester game on Saturday. That match carries a lot of weight for them. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:29 - Apr 12 with 449 views | Illinoisblue |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:24 - Apr 12 by BouncebackIpswich |
No, I disagree. Millwall are the main threat, as they are heavy favourites to win each game they have left. Plus we can't take points off them any more unlike Saints and Boro.
Saints are a threat but are much further back, have more games to play than Millwall and the distraction of a huge FA cup semi final
Keep eyes out for Millwall, they're the ones to be wary of, no matter how people are writing them off because they are a small team. |
They have an erratic QPR at home, away at Stoke on a Tuesday night then away at desperate Leicester. Then last day home to Oxford who are defying the odds still. Not sure that’s an easy run in. |  |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:30 - Apr 12 with 441 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:29 - Apr 12 by Illinoisblue |
They have an erratic QPR at home, away at Stoke on a Tuesday night then away at desperate Leicester. Then last day home to Oxford who are defying the odds still. Not sure that’s an easy run in. |
They ain’t getting 85 points. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:32 - Apr 12 with 435 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:24 - Apr 12 by Illinoisblue |
But that’s where we have the edge in being largely consistent over most of the season. We haven’t gone on bad runs and haven’t gone on outstanding WWWWW kind of runs. We just keep doing our thing and picking up points. That should see us home. |
Adding to this post, and updating my post from Friday :
Nervy (n/t) by SuffolkPunchFC 10 Apr 11:23Putting some stats out there. In the league since Christmas :
17 games (9H, 8A)
31 goals
8 clean sheets
6 where we've conceded only a single goal
We have scored in every game
In a normal game, a loss would be unlikely. Yes, it's a derby so anything can happen, but we're on a good run. As long as we turn up (unlike SheffU & Wrexham), I see a narrow win or draw.
This is now :
Since Christmas
18 games (9H, 9A)
33 goals
9 clean sheets
6 where we've conceded only a single goal
We have scored in every game
We just need to look after ourselves - if we continue to score in every game, keep clean sheets or concede no more than 1, then we will continue to get results. [Post edited 12 Apr 17:44]
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:34 - Apr 12 with 414 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:28 - Apr 12 by pointofblue |
Plus surely Portsmouth will have at least one eye on the Leicester game on Saturday. That match carries a lot of weight for them. |
Valid | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:36 - Apr 12 with 412 views | BouncebackIpswich |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:29 - Apr 12 by Illinoisblue |
They have an erratic QPR at home, away at Stoke on a Tuesday night then away at desperate Leicester. Then last day home to Oxford who are defying the odds still. Not sure that’s an easy run in. |
No game is easy but if those were 4 of our last 6 wed be expecting 12 points.
Millwall are at their best when in adversity and no expectation. I fully expect them to pick up now the 'pressures off' that they are outsiders for the top 2. 10 pts Minimum from those 4 ganes but expecting them to get a clean sweep.
We should be taking them more seriously tbh. |  |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:39 - Apr 12 with 385 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:24 - Apr 12 by Illinoisblue |
But that’s where we have the edge in being largely consistent over most of the season. We haven’t gone on bad runs and haven’t gone on outstanding WWWWW kind of runs. We just keep doing our thing and picking up points. That should see us home. |
I find it very difficult to imagine we will miss out. We need 10 points from a possible 18. Failing would like need us to go on a bad run. But the point isn't are we likely or any team likely to go on a bad run. The point is I don't agree with singling out any of the three teams as a main threat, as any of them are capable of winning 4 games in a roulw, or in Southampton'a case, a further 5 on top of the 5 they already have.
Another way to put it would be do you think it is more likely that Southampton win 10 in a row or Millwall or Boro win 4 in a row? My answer is I don't think the form makes a difference to the likelihood of any of them winning 4 or 5 in a row, But winning 5 in a row, is more difficult than winning 4 in a row, so Southampton if any, seems less likely. Particularly when you factor in one of their games is against us. |  |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:52 - Apr 12 with 330 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:39 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
I find it very difficult to imagine we will miss out. We need 10 points from a possible 18. Failing would like need us to go on a bad run. But the point isn't are we likely or any team likely to go on a bad run. The point is I don't agree with singling out any of the three teams as a main threat, as any of them are capable of winning 4 games in a roulw, or in Southampton'a case, a further 5 on top of the 5 they already have.
Another way to put it would be do you think it is more likely that Southampton win 10 in a row or Millwall or Boro win 4 in a row? My answer is I don't think the form makes a difference to the likelihood of any of them winning 4 or 5 in a row, But winning 5 in a row, is more difficult than winning 4 in a row, so Southampton if any, seems less likely. Particularly when you factor in one of their games is against us. |
Just watch the games, Millwall players were dead on their feet Friday night, Boro haven’t had any replacement for 2 or 3 key injuries. Southampton second half yesterday… | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:56 - Apr 12 with 311 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:52 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Just watch the games, Millwall players were dead on their feet Friday night, Boro haven’t had any replacement for 2 or 3 key injuries. Southampton second half yesterday… |
They look like us when we got it over the line. Southampton look like Leeds right before they had 4 smashed past them by an on the beach QPR. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:57 - Apr 12 with 305 views | DarkBrandon |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:29 - Apr 12 by Illinoisblue |
They have an erratic QPR at home, away at Stoke on a Tuesday night then away at desperate Leicester. Then last day home to Oxford who are defying the odds still. Not sure that’s an easy run in. |
It is as easy as it gets.
Whether it is easy, is a matter for debate, but you’d take that run-in in a heartbeat |  | | |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:00 - Apr 12 with 286 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:56 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
They look like us when we got it over the line. Southampton look like Leeds right before they had 4 smashed past them by an on the beach QPR. |
Might have to explain your working on that one. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:03 - Apr 12 with 273 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 17:57 - Apr 12 by DarkBrandon |
It is as easy as it gets.
Whether it is easy, is a matter for debate, but you’d take that run-in in a heartbeat |
Oxford last day is potentially horrible tbh, but they’ll be a safe 4th or 5th by then. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:05 - Apr 12 with 257 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:00 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Might have to explain your working on that one. |
Millwall Vs Blackburn and West Brom look like our tired displays against Rotherham and Cardiff.
Southampton are getting back into the frame and looking good. They are an excellent run of form. In our promotion season, prior to their last six, Leeds won 13 out of 15 games, the other two draws. They looked like the in form team. They lost 4 of their last 6 including conceding 4 to an on the beach QPR.
Over to you! [Post edited 12 Apr 18:06]
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:09 - Apr 12 with 239 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:05 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
Millwall Vs Blackburn and West Brom look like our tired displays against Rotherham and Cardiff.
Southampton are getting back into the frame and looking good. They are an excellent run of form. In our promotion season, prior to their last six, Leeds won 13 out of 15 games, the other two draws. They looked like the in form team. They lost 4 of their last 6 including conceding 4 to an on the beach QPR.
Over to you! [Post edited 12 Apr 18:06]
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I don’t think that’s right, Leeds lost at Cov the day we lost to Scum away and also the SS winner at Elland Road was before QPR. Not to mention they drew Good Friday when we beat Blackburn. So it’s certainly not the form Southampton are in going into their last 5 league games.
Unless they were all part of their last 6 but seems a bit early. [Post edited 12 Apr 18:12]
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:18 - Apr 12 with 215 views | BouncebackIpswich |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:03 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Oxford last day is potentially horrible tbh, but they’ll be a safe 4th or 5th by then. |
It's very odd you seem so convinced Millwall will fail to win 4 of the easiest games you could wish for in a run in but expect Southampton to win all 5 games when they've got fixtures crammed in, a difficult game Vs us, plus the fairly huge distraction of an FA cup semi final. I struggle to see your logic.
Millwall will be loving going under the radar again, it's exactly what they thrive on. 12 points incoming from them, 'bookmark this post' as they say. [Post edited 12 Apr 18:20]
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:22 - Apr 12 with 209 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:09 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I don’t think that’s right, Leeds lost at Cov the day we lost to Scum away and also the SS winner at Elland Road was before QPR. Not to mention they drew Good Friday when we beat Blackburn. So it’s certainly not the form Southampton are in going into their last 5 league games.
Unless they were all part of their last 6 but seems a bit early. [Post edited 12 Apr 18:12]
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It is a fact the Leeds got 13 wins and 2 draws, prior to their last 6 games.
It is a fact that Southampton have 11 wins and 3 draws prior to their last 5 games.
You can look both up. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:23 - Apr 12 with 205 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:22 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
It is a fact the Leeds got 13 wins and 2 draws, prior to their last 6 games.
It is a fact that Southampton have 11 wins and 3 draws prior to their last 5 games.
You can look both up. |
Nice, so you’re saying Southampton will fall apart again and lose 1-0 to Blackburn Tuesday? I look forward to it! | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:27 - Apr 12 with 198 views | pointofblue |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 16:53 - Apr 12 by DeepBlueSea |
Has the Saints - Man City FA Cup game been definitively marked as the Saturday game then? So no chance our Tuesday match against them mines to Weds?
I do think this is advantageous for us; saints effectively play 2 games a week- 9 games in 29 days between April 4th and May 2nd. And they can’t afford to rest players in either competition. I’ll be very very impressed if they keep getting winning. |
Haven't seen this answered yet - yes, the Southampton FA Cup tie has been confirmed for the Saturday. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:32 - Apr 12 with 185 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:23 - Apr 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Nice, so you’re saying Southampton will fall apart again and lose 1-0 to Blackburn Tuesday? I look forward to it! |
No, I'm not saying that, and I never have. You are strawmaning my arguement because you don't like that my facts disprove what you are saying.
I've been very clear. I'm saying any one of the 3 teams are a threat to us, none more so than another. Form is an indication of past performance, not a guarantee of future performance. I'm not prepared to write off Millwall and Boro in the same way you are.
Southampton may continue their excellent form, they may not. Millwall may continue their poor form (aside from taking 4 points off their automatic promotion in those 5 games), they may not. It is only 4/5 games. Across a small sample of games long term trends are less significant.
I've also said I think it is highly unlikely we mess up from here, but there is also a chance we do. So I think that threat is small, and would get even smaller if we can get three points from a Stubborn Portsmouth side. | |
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| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:36 - Apr 12 with 172 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| 10 points from 6 games guarantees promotion then on 18:32 - Apr 12 by Kropotkin123 |
No, I'm not saying that, and I never have. You are strawmaning my arguement because you don't like that my facts disprove what you are saying.
I've been very clear. I'm saying any one of the 3 teams are a threat to us, none more so than another. Form is an indication of past performance, not a guarantee of future performance. I'm not prepared to write off Millwall and Boro in the same way you are.
Southampton may continue their excellent form, they may not. Millwall may continue their poor form (aside from taking 4 points off their automatic promotion in those 5 games), they may not. It is only 4/5 games. Across a small sample of games long term trends are less significant.
I've also said I think it is highly unlikely we mess up from here, but there is also a chance we do. So I think that threat is small, and would get even smaller if we can get three points from a Stubborn Portsmouth side. |
It was tongue in cheek calm down.
If you think Millwall and Boro are the same threat fair enough, I’ll personally disagree. Squad depth is showing but we are going to be fine anyway. [Post edited 12 Apr 18:36]
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