| Initial analysis of the current heatwave 08:06 - Jun 26 with 18950 views | StokieBlue |
Scientists have said that the current heatwave stretching across Europe would have been impossible in June without climate change and is also hitting hard as the weather is more humid than normal.
"As recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time. In 1976, another famous heatwave year, it would have been 3.5C cooler."
"The sweltering night-time temperatures currently harming people’s sleep are about 100 times more likely today than in 2003."
https://www.theguardian.com/en
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:48 - Jun 30 with 1395 views | eireblue |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:34 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
All that being said, the UK is still on target to reach net zero before China…
As for human ingenuity, a lot of their tech is reverse engineered from other countries due to lack of IP laws, hence why western firms are increasingly reluctant to invest there. Pretty cheap to produce when you can use forced labour too, the West can’t possibly (and shouldn’t) compete with that. |
Yep, they have been very focused on doing this. My post isn't in praise of China. Just like, in the 1930’s saying, you have to hand it to Germany, they seem very good at building tanks, wouldn’t be an endorsement of facism. |  | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:59 - Jun 30 with 1354 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:48 - Jun 30 by eireblue |
Yep, they have been very focused on doing this. My post isn't in praise of China. Just like, in the 1930’s saying, you have to hand it to Germany, they seem very good at building tanks, wouldn’t be an endorsement of facism. |
You’ve missed the point somewhat - where you’ve compared China’s renewable assets exports with the West’s efforts - it’s hardly a level playing field, if you can ignore workers rights and IP protection that obviously gives you a major advantage. Kind of moot given the UK and EU are set to reach net zero before China anyway. The only way the west can reasonably grow a decent market share is to put significant tariffs on Chinese built assets, which would likely slow the transition, so it’s pretty much a catch 22*.
*we are particularly seeing this on EV’s where EU OEM’s are lobbying for tougher tariffs on Chinese imports. The EU are therefore torn between supporting EU manufacturing jobs, or supporting EV update (with cheaper Chinese imports). [Post edited 30 Jun 11:01]
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:14 - Jun 30 with 1321 views | eireblue |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:59 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
You’ve missed the point somewhat - where you’ve compared China’s renewable assets exports with the West’s efforts - it’s hardly a level playing field, if you can ignore workers rights and IP protection that obviously gives you a major advantage. Kind of moot given the UK and EU are set to reach net zero before China anyway. The only way the west can reasonably grow a decent market share is to put significant tariffs on Chinese built assets, which would likely slow the transition, so it’s pretty much a catch 22*.
*we are particularly seeing this on EV’s where EU OEM’s are lobbying for tougher tariffs on Chinese imports. The EU are therefore torn between supporting EU manufacturing jobs, or supporting EV update (with cheaper Chinese imports). [Post edited 30 Jun 11:01]
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I get it. But “The West” could have been leading this market, before China even started.
China had no tech industry in the 1970’s and early 80s.
Wind, solar, tidal and nuclear technology all existed, as did climate change warnings.
We have politicians and followers, still saying, let’s burn some more fossil fuel. Quite the contrast. | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:17 - Jun 30 with 1313 views | NthQldITFC |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 10:59 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
You’ve missed the point somewhat - where you’ve compared China’s renewable assets exports with the West’s efforts - it’s hardly a level playing field, if you can ignore workers rights and IP protection that obviously gives you a major advantage. Kind of moot given the UK and EU are set to reach net zero before China anyway. The only way the west can reasonably grow a decent market share is to put significant tariffs on Chinese built assets, which would likely slow the transition, so it’s pretty much a catch 22*.
*we are particularly seeing this on EV’s where EU OEM’s are lobbying for tougher tariffs on Chinese imports. The EU are therefore torn between supporting EU manufacturing jobs, or supporting EV update (with cheaper Chinese imports). [Post edited 30 Jun 11:01]
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I think the majority of differences in these discussions come from the assumed parameters of the system. You speak very well on the matter, but for me you assume that things like 'IP protection', 'market share', share prices, free market capitalism - essentially the existing economic system are fixed boundaries which can't be pushed and have to be honoured and fitted within.
Whilst that is of course practically true now, today, we're in a crisis where those boundaries have to be challenged in discussion, and almost certainly broken, smashed, done away with - thermodynamics mean we CAN NOT continue as we are. Not that we 'must not', but that we CAN NOT.
So subjecting everything to these narrow, 20th century economic system restrictions and not embracing rapid green growth as a stateless, world necessity is being stuck, terminally, in the past, imho. |  |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:43 - Jun 30 with 1247 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:14 - Jun 30 by eireblue |
I get it. But “The West” could have been leading this market, before China even started.
China had no tech industry in the 1970’s and early 80s.
Wind, solar, tidal and nuclear technology all existed, as did climate change warnings.
We have politicians and followers, still saying, let’s burn some more fossil fuel. Quite the contrast. |
It’s the concept of competitive advantage though, the UK has pursued a services economy due to a respected legal system, (relative) political and financial stability, time zone etc. The UK (and wider West) have seen a steady decline in their manufacturing industry. We could have been early adopters but would have seen our market share steadily eroded as has happened with EV’s, without further trade barriers we can’t possibly compete with China on manufacturing, We couldn’t have just taken some tech from the US (for example) and developed it, rather than spending 10’s millions on R+D. What China have done deserves little praise in opinion, and is only possible under conditions of authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and disregard for legal protections.
I don’t really see the relevance of a few people saying ‘let’s burn more oils and gas’ - for the most part (Trump aside) they aren’t in positions of power, and the EU has a greener economy than China anyway, and will reach net zero first. The UK has phased out coal where China haven’t, and France generates the majority of its energy from nuclear. China strategically built an economy on heavy manufacturing, and quite rightly has an obligation to clean up it’s emissions. | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:07 - Jun 30 with 1197 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:17 - Jun 30 by NthQldITFC |
I think the majority of differences in these discussions come from the assumed parameters of the system. You speak very well on the matter, but for me you assume that things like 'IP protection', 'market share', share prices, free market capitalism - essentially the existing economic system are fixed boundaries which can't be pushed and have to be honoured and fitted within.
Whilst that is of course practically true now, today, we're in a crisis where those boundaries have to be challenged in discussion, and almost certainly broken, smashed, done away with - thermodynamics mean we CAN NOT continue as we are. Not that we 'must not', but that we CAN NOT.
So subjecting everything to these narrow, 20th century economic system restrictions and not embracing rapid green growth as a stateless, world necessity is being stuck, terminally, in the past, imho. |
Where have I mentioned share prices? What is it you are advocating, I was simply saying China have built a renewables industry with labour abuses and corporate espionage, at no stage have I suggested we couldn’t utilise more renewable energy production?
IP protection has driven innovation and medical advances, do you really want to be part of a state that disregards international rules and laws? In my opinion, some of your ideas will see us down the road to authoritarianism. As I said before if you let a government disregard some of the laws and systems, they will do the same for things you don’t like, as history has shown. There is zero chance of having a stateless future where everyone is aligned, it’s just about damage limitation and mitigation now.
Those same thermodynamics will see China lag behind Europe in terms of net zero, whether we are building the assets ourselves or not… [Post edited 30 Jun 16:06]
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:11 - Jun 30 with 1188 views | NthQldITFC |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:07 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Where have I mentioned share prices? What is it you are advocating, I was simply saying China have built a renewables industry with labour abuses and corporate espionage, at no stage have I suggested we couldn’t utilise more renewable energy production?
IP protection has driven innovation and medical advances, do you really want to be part of a state that disregards international rules and laws? In my opinion, some of your ideas will see us down the road to authoritarianism. As I said before if you let a government disregard some of the laws and systems, they will do the same for things you don’t like, as history has shown. There is zero chance of having a stateless future where everyone is aligned, it’s just about damage limitation and mitigation now.
Those same thermodynamics will see China lag behind Europe in terms of net zero, whether we are building the assets ourselves or not… [Post edited 30 Jun 16:06]
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You didn't, that's why IP protection and market share are in quotes.
I'm just trying to make a wider point about us, the human race, moving the boundaries of our established economic system - so I'm not talking about disregarding international rules and laws, I'm talking about necessary fundamental change to international rules, laws, practices and assumptions.
We have to. | |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:28 - Jun 30 with 1146 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:11 - Jun 30 by NthQldITFC |
You didn't, that's why IP protection and market share are in quotes.
I'm just trying to make a wider point about us, the human race, moving the boundaries of our established economic system - so I'm not talking about disregarding international rules and laws, I'm talking about necessary fundamental change to international rules, laws, practices and assumptions.
We have to. |
Maybe talking at cross purposes, I was just pointing out why China have been successful at building their asset production, and why it’s not a level playing field with the West.
If you don’t believe in our legal protections and economic system then surely there’s’ no benefit to a domestic industry anyway?
Let me clarify, as it’s a subject you are obviously passionate about but I don’t fully understand your vision. Are you happy with the current international agreements that are in place re net zero? | | | |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:47 - Jun 30 with 1120 views | eireblue |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 11:43 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
It’s the concept of competitive advantage though, the UK has pursued a services economy due to a respected legal system, (relative) political and financial stability, time zone etc. The UK (and wider West) have seen a steady decline in their manufacturing industry. We could have been early adopters but would have seen our market share steadily eroded as has happened with EV’s, without further trade barriers we can’t possibly compete with China on manufacturing, We couldn’t have just taken some tech from the US (for example) and developed it, rather than spending 10’s millions on R+D. What China have done deserves little praise in opinion, and is only possible under conditions of authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and disregard for legal protections.
I don’t really see the relevance of a few people saying ‘let’s burn more oils and gas’ - for the most part (Trump aside) they aren’t in positions of power, and the EU has a greener economy than China anyway, and will reach net zero first. The UK has phased out coal where China haven’t, and France generates the majority of its energy from nuclear. China strategically built an economy on heavy manufacturing, and quite rightly has an obligation to clean up it’s emissions. |
Yep all true enough, expect I suggest about the people in power, despite consistent scientific evidence and warning since the 70’s, there is still very large opposition to doing things to combat climate change. I would suggest that is because there is a huge amount of lobbying and marketing.
My posting is about leadership, not economics. Although, the U.K. did build its empire on technology and the Industrial Revolution. China is now doing the same.
The U.K. has political parties that are popular, that are against Net Zero.
They claim that going for Net Zero will be harmful to the economy
They have followers that say, “but China”
Again, China sells green tech to Saudi Arabia. The West had that tech before China even had a manufacturing base.
So the refrain “But China…”…..is a bit stupid, no? | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:10 - Jun 30 with 1084 views | StochesStotasBlewe |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 09:04 - Jun 30 by Leaky |
I wasn't poisoning the well, just pointing out that Antarctica wasn't always a frozen wasteland, which in your post you confirmed. As I said the Earth has gone through many changes in its life time climate change being one. Do we need to change our energy habits yes. I was just pointing out other factor's are involved. As Benter's pointed out China, India & US contribute far more to poisoning our Planet than we do. |
This is a bit lengthy, but a good explanation of why Antarctica was once forested. https://discoveringantarctica. |  |
| We have no village green, or a shop.
It's very, very quiet.
I can walk to the pub. |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:21 - Jun 30 with 1063 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:47 - Jun 30 by eireblue |
Yep all true enough, expect I suggest about the people in power, despite consistent scientific evidence and warning since the 70’s, there is still very large opposition to doing things to combat climate change. I would suggest that is because there is a huge amount of lobbying and marketing.
My posting is about leadership, not economics. Although, the U.K. did build its empire on technology and the Industrial Revolution. China is now doing the same.
The U.K. has political parties that are popular, that are against Net Zero.
They claim that going for Net Zero will be harmful to the economy
They have followers that say, “but China”
Again, China sells green tech to Saudi Arabia. The West had that tech before China even had a manufacturing base.
So the refrain “But China…”…..is a bit stupid, no? |
I’m a realist so I do have sympathy for the idea that our tiny global impact in emissions is irrelevant when compared to the big three, and therefore we need them onside if we are to meet global targets. The EU is on track to meet theirs, so I don’t see an issue there. Of course we have contrarians who say otherwise - that’s the luxury of freedom of expression that opposition don’t have in China. I don’t foresee any possibility of Reform winning enough seats to take us off track, nor any European parties. Would add it’s obviously much easier for a dictatorship as you can realise long term ambitions without having to pander to the electorate, and you can just flood entire towns to may way for a hydroelectric dam.
There is a cost of course to going net zero, as we are seeing in the levies on our energy bills, and that’s the fault of bad messaging for labour (I.e the much muted reductions in energy costs are a medium term ambition). As is their failure to delink energy prices from the most expensive source (which I understand is in the pipeline). Additionally the cost of further impact of climate change, increased flooding, droughts, heatwaves etc will be much greater than the cost of transition. | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:45 - Jun 30 with 1025 views | NthQldITFC |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 12:28 - Jun 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Maybe talking at cross purposes, I was just pointing out why China have been successful at building their asset production, and why it’s not a level playing field with the West.
If you don’t believe in our legal protections and economic system then surely there’s’ no benefit to a domestic industry anyway?
Let me clarify, as it’s a subject you are obviously passionate about but I don’t fully understand your vision. Are you happy with the current international agreements that are in place re net zero? |
No, I'm not happy with the current international agreements that are in place re net zero, they are wholly inadequate and do not go far enough or fast enough, and even weak as they are, they are not being effectively implemented.
The point I am trying to make, which may be off at a bit of a tangent, is that the laborious process of reaching those agreements and implementing them (including things like rapidly transitioning to green economy, green manufacturing), was and is crippled by the leviathan self-interest (misguided though it may be) of the established economic system and its unwillingness to change in the face of necessity. | |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:00 - Jun 30 with 1004 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:45 - Jun 30 by NthQldITFC |
No, I'm not happy with the current international agreements that are in place re net zero, they are wholly inadequate and do not go far enough or fast enough, and even weak as they are, they are not being effectively implemented.
The point I am trying to make, which may be off at a bit of a tangent, is that the laborious process of reaching those agreements and implementing them (including things like rapidly transitioning to green economy, green manufacturing), was and is crippled by the leviathan self-interest (misguided though it may be) of the established economic system and its unwillingness to change in the face of necessity. |
Fair enough, understood. Well given the world’s biggest producer of carbon have only pledged to be net zero in another 34 years, it looks like mitigation and damage limitation is the name of the game, rather than a rapid transition. | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:23 - Jun 30 with 958 views | leitrimblue |
Gonna blow Leakys mind when he finds out the UK 12-15,000 years ago was under glaciers hundreds of meters thick. [Post edited 30 Jun 14:29]
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:25 - Jun 30 with 953 views | Ryorry |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:45 - Jun 30 by NthQldITFC |
No, I'm not happy with the current international agreements that are in place re net zero, they are wholly inadequate and do not go far enough or fast enough, and even weak as they are, they are not being effectively implemented.
The point I am trying to make, which may be off at a bit of a tangent, is that the laborious process of reaching those agreements and implementing them (including things like rapidly transitioning to green economy, green manufacturing), was and is crippled by the leviathan self-interest (misguided though it may be) of the established economic system and its unwillingness to change in the face of necessity. |
There was a reference earlier (can’t recall by who) to there being zero hope of global unity and international, borderless cooperation to save the planet from being uninhabitable in large parts due to CC.
Given the trajectory we’re all on, I’d say it’s more likely than not at some future point - even if c-unit heads of state won’t see it, the mass of their populations will, out of sheer self interest, as per even rednecks turning on him over his Iran stupidity.
There was a BBC projection a couple of weeks ago that even where I live, 650’ feet up in N. Yorkshire, 41C in summer would be a regular occurrence in 30 years time. We already experience regular spring & summer droughts and water shortages. People aren’t so stupid that they won’t realise that the globe can’t produce enough food to feed ourselves in those conditions.
Well that’s me giving humans some credit. If I were a pessimist, I’d say the alternative was mass migration and wars … |  |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:31 - Jun 30 with 921 views | giant_stow |
In exciting late breaking news, Norfolk wins again:
"The Met Office said an update received over the weekend of 37.7C measured at Lingwood in Norfolk, east of Norwich, beats the 37.3C recorded at Santon Downham in Suffolk on Friday, and is a provisional new June temperature record for the UK".
https://www.standard.co.uk/new |  |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:35 - Jun 30 with 908 views | Steve_M |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:31 - Jun 30 by giant_stow |
In exciting late breaking news, Norfolk wins again:
"The Met Office said an update received over the weekend of 37.7C measured at Lingwood in Norfolk, east of Norwich, beats the 37.3C recorded at Santon Downham in Suffolk on Friday, and is a provisional new June temperature record for the UK".
https://www.standard.co.uk/new |
Would you like us to book an open-top bus? |  |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:36 - Jun 30 with 902 views | giant_stow |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:35 - Jun 30 by Steve_M |
Would you like us to book an open-top bus? |
Yes please, but with air con downstairs. | |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:37 - Jun 30 with 894 views | Ryorry |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 22:40 - Jun 29 by StochesStotasBlewe |
It’s from 70 million years ago. At that time, Antarctica was covered in lush forests. The Cretaceous period as it’s known was ended by an asteroid strike. You are correct about climate change happening several times over millions of years, however, the current global climate change is more to do with human behaviour than naturally occurring events.
Planet earth will always adapt, I fear though that humankind will be the architect of its own downfall. |
For Leaky -
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 15:36 - Jun 30 with 804 views | Benters |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:23 - Jun 30 by leitrimblue |
Gonna blow Leakys mind when he finds out the UK 12-15,000 years ago was under glaciers hundreds of meters thick. [Post edited 30 Jun 14:29]
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I bet you’d need thick old socks on with all that. |  |
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 15:43 - Jun 30 with 784 views | leitrimblue |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 15:36 - Jun 30 by Benters |
I bet you’d need thick old socks on with all that. |
I'd suggest 2 pairs and a wolly hat. | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 16:34 - Jun 30 with 716 views | Leaky |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 14:23 - Jun 30 by leitrimblue |
Gonna blow Leakys mind when he finds out the UK 12-15,000 years ago was under glaciers hundreds of meters thick. [Post edited 30 Jun 14:29]
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I was already aware of that, however that actually proves my point that the Earth has endured climate change before industrialisation. I am not against banning fossil fuels, by any means, I was just pointing out human activity is not sole to blame. At the end of the day we need a cleaner planet |  | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 16:34 - Jun 30 with 716 views | DJR |
Not climate related but the following always amazes me.
"500 million years ago Scotland was separated from England and Wales by the ancient Lapetus Ocean and for most of the last billion years, Scotland was joined to America and Greenland, separating 60 million years ago when the North Atlantic began to form."
When I studied A-level geography nearly 50 years it was called Continental Drift and was a recently accepted theory but these days I think it is known as Plate Tectonics. [Post edited 30 Jun 16:35]
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| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 16:55 - Jun 30 with 686 views | Leaky |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 13:19 - Jun 26 by NthQldITFC |
Yes, although the key problem then I think is then that the great god 'Profit' dictates that those cattle have to produce a maximum RoI and therefore instead of being a sustainable herd, have be crammed in and fed with imported foodstuff from the cheapest source possible halfway around the world.
Capitalism has killed us. |
Problem is socialism will starve us to death look at Russia under communism | | | |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 17:12 - Jun 30 with 657 views | naa |
| Initial analysis of the current heatwave on 16:34 - Jun 30 by Leaky |
I was already aware of that, however that actually proves my point that the Earth has endured climate change before industrialisation. I am not against banning fossil fuels, by any means, I was just pointing out human activity is not sole to blame. At the end of the day we need a cleaner planet |
Again, you are conflating the process of natural change with what we are seeing now.
I think all scientists agree that the current change is not part of a natural cycle. Therefore, it is completely irrelevant to mention it. | | | |
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