| Wow 20% drop in GDP 07:33 - Jun 12 with 3541 views | hype313 |
Going be a nasty storm, batten down the hatches, trying to think of more clichés.
All credit to the lads
Game of two halves |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:34 - Jun 12 with 2371 views | DanTheMan |
All in this together? |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:34 - Jun 12 with 2363 views | hype313 |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:34 - Jun 12 by DanTheMan |
All in this together? |
Strong and stable. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:46 - Jun 12 with 2299 views | Moriarty |
UK is on a cliff edge but is only leaving the EU not Europe so the UK can get back on its feet. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:53 - Jun 12 with 2277 views | Steve_M |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:46 - Jun 12 by Moriarty |
UK is on a cliff edge but is only leaving the EU not Europe so the UK can get back on its feet. |
Get back on it's feet by imposing massive barriers to trade with its nearest markets? [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 8:13]
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:02 - Jun 12 with 2255 views | Steve_M |
This is a good thread, expands on the data quite a lot. Some sectors of the economy will be rebounding already and others will follow., I guess the real issue is going to be those sectors that can't recover quickly - hospitality and travel in particular - and whether businesses can survive.
It would also be a foolish government that decided a further big hit to the economy by a no deal Brexit in December would be a good idea. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:07 - Jun 12 with 2233 views | gordon |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:53 - Jun 12 by Steve_M |
Get back on it's feet by imposing massive barriers to trade with its nearest markets? [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 8:13]
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I think the new plan is that we don't actually really know how to set up a border, so we're going to take back control of our borders by not actually having a border yet.
So goods will be able to flow unhindered into the UK from the EU with us having no means to put a tariff etc. on them, but the EU has got it's border system sorted, and is going to be quite happy to impose whatever tariffs are agreed.
You can see why the German car manufacturers and Italian Prosecco makes are quivering in fear. |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:15 - Jun 12 with 2209 views | Steve_M |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:07 - Jun 12 by gordon |
I think the new plan is that we don't actually really know how to set up a border, so we're going to take back control of our borders by not actually having a border yet.
So goods will be able to flow unhindered into the UK from the EU with us having no means to put a tariff etc. on them, but the EU has got it's border system sorted, and is going to be quite happy to impose whatever tariffs are agreed.
You can see why the German car manufacturers and Italian Prosecco makes are quivering in fear. |
Even more concerning is that many in government still do not seem to understand what non-tariff barriers are, possibly because the pro-Brexit economists and think tanks tend to ignore them in their wildly optimistic reports. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:16 - Jun 12 with 2207 views | giant_stow |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:02 - Jun 12 by Steve_M |
This is a good thread, expands on the data quite a lot. Some sectors of the economy will be rebounding already and others will follow., I guess the real issue is going to be those sectors that can't recover quickly - hospitality and travel in particular - and whether businesses can survive.
It would also be a foolish government that decided a further big hit to the economy by a no deal Brexit in December would be a good idea. |
Those early debates about lives vs the economy look a like they were optimistically framed now.
I wonder what would have happenned with a more capable govenment? |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:18 - Jun 12 with 2198 views | gordon |
Not really on topic, but I absolutely love this guy:
'You gotta go to the brink!'
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:34 - Jun 12 with 2129 views | Plums |
Imposing sanctions on ourselves at the end of the year seems exactly the right thing to do...Thank goodness we have a responsible government at the helm. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:41 - Jun 12 with 2081 views | itfcjoe |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:16 - Jun 12 by giant_stow |
Those early debates about lives vs the economy look a like they were optimistically framed now.
I wonder what would have happenned with a more capable govenment? |
We managed to pick the perfect pinch point to ensure the most amount of deaths and the biggest crash to the economy |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:52 - Jun 12 with 2048 views | Steve_M |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:18 - Jun 12 by gordon |
Not really on topic, but I absolutely love this guy:
'You gotta go to the brink!'
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Those German car manufacturers are leaving it very late to come and save us. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:04 - Jun 12 with 2026 views | giant_stow |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:41 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
We managed to pick the perfect pinch point to ensure the most amount of deaths and the biggest crash to the economy |
Yes, amazing really.
I guess the most we can hope for is for more people to slowly realise they voted in incompetent charlatans for no good reason: even on their own terms they’re sh1t. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:09 - Jun 12 with 2017 views | Guthrum |
On the contrary, I think it is quite positive that when the country was going through a lockdown with many businesses forced to close their doors, GDP only fell by one-fifth. It suggests that a very large proportion of the economy was able to keep on functioning regardless.
Moreover, a fair chunk of that 20% were/are in suspended animation, not dead. There will be a large degree of bounce-back as restrictions are lifted and they can restart.
Thirdly, some of that dent in GDP has been covered by the various Government handout and backed loan schemes. Wages continue to be paid to those whose jobs have been suspended. Businesses have been able to claw back some of their losses. Sure, that will increase the national debt, but that is less of an issue than mass unemployment. In terms of security going forward, furloughed staff still have their jobs, subject to pre-existing protections and compensation if made redundant.
That's not to say there won't be a severe recession after all this. It will take time to get things running again and some industries may never fully recover, or take decades to do so. But taking April's figures alone paints (IMO) an unrealistically alarming picture of the future. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:18 - Jun 12 with 1982 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:09 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
On the contrary, I think it is quite positive that when the country was going through a lockdown with many businesses forced to close their doors, GDP only fell by one-fifth. It suggests that a very large proportion of the economy was able to keep on functioning regardless.
Moreover, a fair chunk of that 20% were/are in suspended animation, not dead. There will be a large degree of bounce-back as restrictions are lifted and they can restart.
Thirdly, some of that dent in GDP has been covered by the various Government handout and backed loan schemes. Wages continue to be paid to those whose jobs have been suspended. Businesses have been able to claw back some of their losses. Sure, that will increase the national debt, but that is less of an issue than mass unemployment. In terms of security going forward, furloughed staff still have their jobs, subject to pre-existing protections and compensation if made redundant.
That's not to say there won't be a severe recession after all this. It will take time to get things running again and some industries may never fully recover, or take decades to do so. But taking April's figures alone paints (IMO) an unrealistically alarming picture of the future. |
Its a good point. In a normal recession, the problem is that the economy's capacity is actually reducing whereas this, in many instances, is a suspension of activity. It makes the figures far less comparable than would otherwise be the case. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:18 - Jun 12 with 1982 views | Guthrum |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:52 - Jun 12 by Steve_M |
Those German car manufacturers are leaving it very late to come and save us. |
Part of the problem is that however much the Germans might want to force a deal through, there are other parts of the EU with their own agenda (e.g. fishing*) who are demanding to be heard - all with powers of veto.
Everyone is, to some extent, tangled in systemic nets. Which is why the timescale is (and always was, even before this crisis) unrealistic.
* Also, for that matter, issues unrelated to Brexit like ongoing disputes between Orban's government and the EU. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:23 - Jun 12 with 1960 views | Moriarty |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:53 - Jun 12 by Steve_M |
Get back on it's feet by imposing massive barriers to trade with its nearest markets? [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 8:13]
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No. I think the U.K. is fuc€ed.
I’m just using some Brexit cliche. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:27 - Jun 12 with 1933 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:18 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
Part of the problem is that however much the Germans might want to force a deal through, there are other parts of the EU with their own agenda (e.g. fishing*) who are demanding to be heard - all with powers of veto.
Everyone is, to some extent, tangled in systemic nets. Which is why the timescale is (and always was, even before this crisis) unrealistic.
* Also, for that matter, issues unrelated to Brexit like ongoing disputes between Orban's government and the EU. |
There is at least some merit in pointing out that this is one of the major issues with the EU, and gives some fuel to the brexit stance...
The mindset in the EU that a soverign nation, which is an Island, which leaves the EU, should still not have a full say over fishing in its own waters, is difficult to justify. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:30 - Jun 12 with 1920 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:41 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
We managed to pick the perfect pinch point to ensure the most amount of deaths and the biggest crash to the economy |
It would be delightfully ironic if Labour based their next election campaign around the message that the 'Tories crashed the economy'. |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:31 - Jun 12 with 1920 views | Libero |
I'm at a bit of a loss as to how the discussion has been constructed on this morning's news shows. Unless they discussed it before I switched on/after I left for work there's very little mention about how this is going to effect all of those currently unemployed and the soon to be hundreds of thousands of people that will be made redundant once the furlough scheme starts requiring larger employer contributions.
We're going to end up with a record high for unemployment, aren't we? |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:33 - Jun 12 with 1894 views | Steve_M |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:23 - Jun 12 by Moriarty |
No. I think the U.K. is fuc€ed.
I’m just using some Brexit cliche. |
Consider me wooshed there then. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:36 - Jun 12 with 1887 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:31 - Jun 12 by Libero |
I'm at a bit of a loss as to how the discussion has been constructed on this morning's news shows. Unless they discussed it before I switched on/after I left for work there's very little mention about how this is going to effect all of those currently unemployed and the soon to be hundreds of thousands of people that will be made redundant once the furlough scheme starts requiring larger employer contributions.
We're going to end up with a record high for unemployment, aren't we? |
Rather depends how well the furlough schemes have worked.
I can see many businesses having a peak, and many people having money to spend having had a very frugal few months.
Time will tell. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:47 - Jun 12 with 1859 views | JakeITFC |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:09 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
On the contrary, I think it is quite positive that when the country was going through a lockdown with many businesses forced to close their doors, GDP only fell by one-fifth. It suggests that a very large proportion of the economy was able to keep on functioning regardless.
Moreover, a fair chunk of that 20% were/are in suspended animation, not dead. There will be a large degree of bounce-back as restrictions are lifted and they can restart.
Thirdly, some of that dent in GDP has been covered by the various Government handout and backed loan schemes. Wages continue to be paid to those whose jobs have been suspended. Businesses have been able to claw back some of their losses. Sure, that will increase the national debt, but that is less of an issue than mass unemployment. In terms of security going forward, furloughed staff still have their jobs, subject to pre-existing protections and compensation if made redundant.
That's not to say there won't be a severe recession after all this. It will take time to get things running again and some industries may never fully recover, or take decades to do so. But taking April's figures alone paints (IMO) an unrealistically alarming picture of the future. |
Hopefully we borrow more and invest rather than go for another period of austerity - it's an excellent time to take money and that seems to be the Chancellor's preference. |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:52 - Jun 12 with 1842 views | Libero |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:36 - Jun 12 by sparks |
Rather depends how well the furlough schemes have worked.
I can see many businesses having a peak, and many people having money to spend having had a very frugal few months.
Time will tell. |
I've mates in various different workplaces and sectors that are either being made redundant or being told there is a strong chance that redundancies will be needed once the business has to pay the majority of the wages again.
Some of them just won't be able to meet the covid safe regulations and others will have to seriously reduce their productivity and take on less clients/business which ultimately means letting people go.
Unless I'm being incredibly thick (always possible) I just don't see how this ends in anything other than mass unemployment. | | | |
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