| Wow 20% drop in GDP 07:33 - Jun 12 with 3698 views | hype313 |
Going be a nasty storm, batten down the hatches, trying to think of more clichés.
All credit to the lads
Game of two halves |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:00 - Jun 12 with 1229 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:52 - Jun 12 by Libero |
I've mates in various different workplaces and sectors that are either being made redundant or being told there is a strong chance that redundancies will be needed once the business has to pay the majority of the wages again.
Some of them just won't be able to meet the covid safe regulations and others will have to seriously reduce their productivity and take on less clients/business which ultimately means letting people go.
Unless I'm being incredibly thick (always possible) I just don't see how this ends in anything other than mass unemployment. |
Time will tell. It depends very much on the sectors and there is inevitably going to be significant damage. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:05 - Jun 12 with 1222 views | clive_baker |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:36 - Jun 12 by sparks |
Rather depends how well the furlough schemes have worked.
I can see many businesses having a peak, and many people having money to spend having had a very frugal few months.
Time will tell. |
The furlough scheme is an excellent intervention, about all the government have got right, but I can see it having the effect of businesses getting used to reduced workforces, reallocating responsibilities and generally operating much leaner. I would imagine there will be a huge amount of these roles that simply don't come back, with redundancies follows on from furlough. I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment somewhere between 10% - 15% in the final quarter of this year.
Consumer confidence will no doubt be impacted significantly, and if 2008 is anything to go by we'll see increased saving and reduced spending, despite interest rates being so low. This isn't a case of lifting the lock down and businesses getting back to normal, there's huge longer term implications that'll take a long time to recover from, if ever in some sectors.
Brexit was nothing in comparison. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:10 - Jun 12 with 1203 views | linhdi |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:27 - Jun 12 by sparks |
There is at least some merit in pointing out that this is one of the major issues with the EU, and gives some fuel to the brexit stance...
The mindset in the EU that a soverign nation, which is an Island, which leaves the EU, should still not have a full say over fishing in its own waters, is difficult to justify. |
Just as much as the fact that any EU member state can veto any aspect of any agreement kind of undermines any argument about the EU destroying sovereignty. |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:14 - Jun 12 with 1195 views | BlueBadger |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:09 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
On the contrary, I think it is quite positive that when the country was going through a lockdown with many businesses forced to close their doors, GDP only fell by one-fifth. It suggests that a very large proportion of the economy was able to keep on functioning regardless.
Moreover, a fair chunk of that 20% were/are in suspended animation, not dead. There will be a large degree of bounce-back as restrictions are lifted and they can restart.
Thirdly, some of that dent in GDP has been covered by the various Government handout and backed loan schemes. Wages continue to be paid to those whose jobs have been suspended. Businesses have been able to claw back some of their losses. Sure, that will increase the national debt, but that is less of an issue than mass unemployment. In terms of security going forward, furloughed staff still have their jobs, subject to pre-existing protections and compensation if made redundant.
That's not to say there won't be a severe recession after all this. It will take time to get things running again and some industries may never fully recover, or take decades to do so. But taking April's figures alone paints (IMO) an unrealistically alarming picture of the future. |
On top of that, we seem determined to press ahead with a no-deal Brexit settlement. Because making nearly half of all your export trade more expensive, beaurocratic and time-consuming is always a good way to ensure better profit margins. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:15 - Jun 12 with 1191 views | factual_blue |
We are all in this together? |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:15 - Jun 12 with 1191 views | manchego |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 08:18 - Jun 12 by gordon |
Not really on topic, but I absolutely love this guy:
'You gotta go to the brink!'
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DD is a complete twerp and has only ever shown a complete misunderstanding of Brexit negotiations.
He's only ever been wrong before and is wrong on this. |  | | |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:35 - Jun 12 with 1160 views | hype313 |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:15 - Jun 12 by factual_blue |
We are all in this together? |
Well, you aren't, with your gold plated pension.
Although if things are as bad as they forecast, the gold will be reduced to rusty copper before long. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:40 - Jun 12 with 1149 views | giant_stow |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:35 - Jun 12 by hype313 |
Well, you aren't, with your gold plated pension.
Although if things are as bad as they forecast, the gold will be reduced to rusty copper before long. |
agreed, lets go after Factual's pension - should be able to build a few hospitals with that. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:26 - Jun 12 with 1115 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 07:46 - Jun 12 by Moriarty |
UK is on a cliff edge but is only leaving the EU not Europe so the UK can get back on its feet. |
Europe in terms of the geographical continent largely irrelevant when the discussion is around trade. Other than the proximity, there's no other benefit to being part of the same continent.
I know that's a regularly trotted out brexiteer line, but it's meaningless. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:32 - Jun 12 with 1106 views | factual_blue |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:35 - Jun 12 by hype313 |
Well, you aren't, with your gold plated pension.
Although if things are as bad as they forecast, the gold will be reduced to rusty copper before long. |
It's actually solid gold, with Iridium filigree and rhodium detailing. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:36 - Jun 12 with 1102 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:27 - Jun 12 by sparks |
There is at least some merit in pointing out that this is one of the major issues with the EU, and gives some fuel to the brexit stance...
The mindset in the EU that a soverign nation, which is an Island, which leaves the EU, should still not have a full say over fishing in its own waters, is difficult to justify. |
The reason the EU has that mindset is because while we were in the EU, we sold most of our EU fishing quota to other EU countries, so quite unsurprisingly, they think we're not really interested in fishing in our own waters... |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:37 - Jun 12 with 1098 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 10:05 - Jun 12 by clive_baker |
The furlough scheme is an excellent intervention, about all the government have got right, but I can see it having the effect of businesses getting used to reduced workforces, reallocating responsibilities and generally operating much leaner. I would imagine there will be a huge amount of these roles that simply don't come back, with redundancies follows on from furlough. I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment somewhere between 10% - 15% in the final quarter of this year.
Consumer confidence will no doubt be impacted significantly, and if 2008 is anything to go by we'll see increased saving and reduced spending, despite interest rates being so low. This isn't a case of lifting the lock down and businesses getting back to normal, there's huge longer term implications that'll take a long time to recover from, if ever in some sectors.
Brexit was nothing in comparison. |
Yes, furlough and various recovery schemes have been a positive.
The forecasts for Brexit impact are less, but they're still significant to the overall picture. It's going to reducing our ability to recover from the inevitable Covid-19 recession and last for a long time. I think the forecasts were around 5% hit on GDP for a free trade deal and 7-8% hit if we end up falling back on standard WTO terms, over the next 10-15 yrs. (OECD are forecasting around 11-14% hit this year on GDP for comparison).
Add the two together and it's going to be a sh*tstorm. | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:46 - Jun 12 with 1081 views | Swansea_Blue |
The comparison with previous recessions is pretty impressive.
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:51 - Jun 12 with 1070 views | giant_stow |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:46 - Jun 12 by Swansea_Blue |
The comparison with previous recessions is pretty impressive.
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fckaduck | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:59 - Jun 12 with 1060 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:51 - Jun 12 by giant_stow |
fckaduck |
Innit | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 12:41 - Jun 12 with 1045 views | BlueBadger |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 11:36 - Jun 12 by Ewan_Oozami |
The reason the EU has that mindset is because while we were in the EU, we sold most of our EU fishing quota to other EU countries, so quite unsurprisingly, they think we're not really interested in fishing in our own waters... |
And a lot of it happened under the same people who are now calling for us to reclaim control of them.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/07/fishing-brexit-uk-fleetwood/ | |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:17 - Jun 12 with 1021 views | Pinewoodblue |
The impact on U.K. ,of Corona Virus, Is remarkably similar to France, Spain & Italy.
The biggest problem in 2021 will be encouraging the general public to spend our way out of the recession. Public spending is just as important as government spending.
Will you use any upturn to improve your own financial position or will you go ahead with spending on items you would have purchased this year. DIY, electrical goods, cars, eating out etc.
If the U.K. followed Trump’s example and sent a Cheque to every household would you spend it or use it to improve your financial position? |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:22 - Jun 12 with 1011 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:17 - Jun 12 by Pinewoodblue |
The impact on U.K. ,of Corona Virus, Is remarkably similar to France, Spain & Italy.
The biggest problem in 2021 will be encouraging the general public to spend our way out of the recession. Public spending is just as important as government spending.
Will you use any upturn to improve your own financial position or will you go ahead with spending on items you would have purchased this year. DIY, electrical goods, cars, eating out etc.
If the U.K. followed Trump’s example and sent a Cheque to every household would you spend it or use it to improve your financial position? |
Technically its a recession. At this point, we dont know what shape it really has because it has been a period of suspension, rather than the usual downturn with falling confidence and spending power.
Many people have not bought the new things because they cant get out and do so- rather than because they havent the funds, or are worried about the cost. The percentage of those as opposed to the people not spending as a result of economic worries of their own, is not yet clear and will play a huge part. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:55 - Jun 12 with 970 views | itfcjoe |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:36 - Jun 12 by sparks |
Rather depends how well the furlough schemes have worked.
I can see many businesses having a peak, and many people having money to spend having had a very frugal few months.
Time will tell. |
And it's very dependednt on the industry too, whether it can pause then start again.
A construction company can, a bar can't so easily.
The hospitality hand travel sector will be on it's knees, because people can't or won't want to use them - they are tough industries as it is |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 14:04 - Jun 12 with 954 views | sparks |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:55 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
And it's very dependednt on the industry too, whether it can pause then start again.
A construction company can, a bar can't so easily.
The hospitality hand travel sector will be on it's knees, because people can't or won't want to use them - they are tough industries as it is |
Undoubtedly. What may be interesting to see is how many people spend the extra funds they are not using for those things on home improvements, education, tech goods etc. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 14:14 - Jun 12 with 947 views | Guthrum |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 09:47 - Jun 12 by JakeITFC |
Hopefully we borrow more and invest rather than go for another period of austerity - it's an excellent time to take money and that seems to be the Chancellor's preference. |
This batch of government debt isn't going to be erased by any practical level of austerity. Especially given things have been cut so hard already over the last decade - there aren't a lot more savings possible.
Fortunately, Sunak appears more inclined towards positive Keynesian solutions, judging by his budget back in March, before all this seriously kicked off. |  |
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| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 14:19 - Jun 12 with 941 views | Guthrum |
| Wow 20% drop in GDP on 13:55 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
And it's very dependednt on the industry too, whether it can pause then start again.
A construction company can, a bar can't so easily.
The hospitality hand travel sector will be on it's knees, because people can't or won't want to use them - they are tough industries as it is |
With some sectors, e.g. bars, there was already a degree of overcapacity. Popular bars are rammed, but there are many empty ones, also.
In Cheltenham, they built a new shopping arcade on the site of an old brewery. Many of the units were taken up by bars and restaurants - a lot of which are quite or very empty most evenings (and some of which have never even opened properly). | |
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