| It appears that social distancing is dead 08:42 - Jun 20 with 1686 views | sparks |
BBC reporting that the review on 2m rule will be done in a couple of days. All the papers reporting that it will be reduced. Clearly briefed.
Schools back in September- impossible without reduction.
They have made the decision and are simlpy trying to claw together some supportive expert opinion to justify it. Shouldnt it be the other way round? |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |  |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:43 - Jun 20 with 1659 views | Herbivore |
They should just be honest (lol) and say that yes these things increase the risk of transmission but taking everything into account they feel that the risk is outweighed by economic and mental well-being considerations. That's what it comes down to, they should just name it. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:57 - Jun 20 with 1609 views | pointofblue |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:43 - Jun 20 by Herbivore |
They should just be honest (lol) and say that yes these things increase the risk of transmission but taking everything into account they feel that the risk is outweighed by economic and mental well-being considerations. That's what it comes down to, they should just name it. |
To be fair, I think I’m right in saying the World Health Organisation have stated that they’re satisfied with 1m gaps rather than 2m. This has been the one (and only?) area where the government have been extremely cautious. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:34 - Jun 20 with 1484 views | blueprint |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:57 - Jun 20 by pointofblue |
To be fair, I think I’m right in saying the World Health Organisation have stated that they’re satisfied with 1m gaps rather than 2m. This has been the one (and only?) area where the government have been extremely cautious. |
The reason being they know so many Britons are idiots and will ignore the 2 metre rule so they may as well implement a I metre rule instead. |  | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:39 - Jun 20 with 1465 views | sparks |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:34 - Jun 20 by blueprint |
The reason being they know so many Britons are idiots and will ignore the 2 metre rule so they may as well implement a I metre rule instead. |
The message to relax was put out weeks ago- and people quite predictably have acted on it. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:47 - Jun 20 with 1443 views | bluelagos |
Worth a catch up on the Newsnight report last night.
2m has pretty much no scientific basis to it. The bigger the distance, the lower the risk.
There was a graph that showed how under 1m the risk increases significantly, over 1m marginally. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:49 - Jun 20 with 1431 views | sparks |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:47 - Jun 20 by bluelagos |
Worth a catch up on the Newsnight report last night.
2m has pretty much no scientific basis to it. The bigger the distance, the lower the risk.
There was a graph that showed how under 1m the risk increases significantly, over 1m marginally. |
The research is by no means complete or definitive. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:50 - Jun 20 with 1426 views | bluelagos |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:49 - Jun 20 by sparks |
The research is by no means complete or definitive. |
Yep, they made that point too. | |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:51 - Jun 20 with 1419 views | sparks |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:50 - Jun 20 by bluelagos |
Yep, they made that point too. |
"With such uncertainty and a desire to reduce the social distance to the minimal level required for safety, a recent study published in the Lancet sought to provide some much-needed clarity on the person-person transmission of COVID-19.7 The authors analysed data from 172 observational studies and 44 comparative studies in both health-care and non-healthcare settings with a total of 25,697 patients. Due to a small number of studies with COVID-19, the authors combined data on the middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) with any COVID-19 studies. Their analysis revealed that when comparing distances of >1m vs <1m (that is, no social distancing), the risk of infection reduces from 12.8% to 2.6%, that is, keeping at least 1m apart reduces the risk of infection from approximately 13% to 3%.
The researchers also found that “for every 1m further away in distancing, the relative effect might increase by 2.02 times”. This provides crucial support for the current 2m social distancing rule in the UK. It suggests that by reducing this distance from 2m to 1m, the risk of infection would double. This latter point is reinforced in the paper when the authors state that “our current review supports the implementation of a policy of physical distancing of at least 1m and, if feasible, 2m or more”. The study also revealed that the use of masks reduced the risk of infection by 85% though this was only more effective in healthcare settings and that eye protection reduced the risk by 78%. "
https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covid-19/should-the-2m-social-distancing-rule-be- | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:52 - Jun 20 with 1411 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:43 - Jun 20 by Herbivore |
They should just be honest (lol) and say that yes these things increase the risk of transmission but taking everything into account they feel that the risk is outweighed by economic and mental well-being considerations. That's what it comes down to, they should just name it. |
Agreed. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:56 - Jun 20 with 1401 views | giant_stow |
Imo, the govt has lost all authority over covid guidlines (classic dom). Many people have concluded their advice is based on politics rather than science and are now making their own daily micro safety decisions. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:57 - Jun 20 with 1394 views | bluelagos |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:51 - Jun 20 by sparks |
"With such uncertainty and a desire to reduce the social distance to the minimal level required for safety, a recent study published in the Lancet sought to provide some much-needed clarity on the person-person transmission of COVID-19.7 The authors analysed data from 172 observational studies and 44 comparative studies in both health-care and non-healthcare settings with a total of 25,697 patients. Due to a small number of studies with COVID-19, the authors combined data on the middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) with any COVID-19 studies. Their analysis revealed that when comparing distances of >1m vs <1m (that is, no social distancing), the risk of infection reduces from 12.8% to 2.6%, that is, keeping at least 1m apart reduces the risk of infection from approximately 13% to 3%.
The researchers also found that “for every 1m further away in distancing, the relative effect might increase by 2.02 times”. This provides crucial support for the current 2m social distancing rule in the UK. It suggests that by reducing this distance from 2m to 1m, the risk of infection would double. This latter point is reinforced in the paper when the authors state that “our current review supports the implementation of a policy of physical distancing of at least 1m and, if feasible, 2m or more”. The study also revealed that the use of masks reduced the risk of infection by 85% though this was only more effective in healthcare settings and that eye protection reduced the risk by 78%. "
https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covid-19/should-the-2m-social-distancing-rule-be- |
That report was heavily criticised on the programme for the poor way it is took qualitative data and produced a quantitative conclusion. | |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:59 - Jun 20 with 1387 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 10:51 - Jun 20 by sparks |
"With such uncertainty and a desire to reduce the social distance to the minimal level required for safety, a recent study published in the Lancet sought to provide some much-needed clarity on the person-person transmission of COVID-19.7 The authors analysed data from 172 observational studies and 44 comparative studies in both health-care and non-healthcare settings with a total of 25,697 patients. Due to a small number of studies with COVID-19, the authors combined data on the middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) with any COVID-19 studies. Their analysis revealed that when comparing distances of >1m vs <1m (that is, no social distancing), the risk of infection reduces from 12.8% to 2.6%, that is, keeping at least 1m apart reduces the risk of infection from approximately 13% to 3%.
The researchers also found that “for every 1m further away in distancing, the relative effect might increase by 2.02 times”. This provides crucial support for the current 2m social distancing rule in the UK. It suggests that by reducing this distance from 2m to 1m, the risk of infection would double. This latter point is reinforced in the paper when the authors state that “our current review supports the implementation of a policy of physical distancing of at least 1m and, if feasible, 2m or more”. The study also revealed that the use of masks reduced the risk of infection by 85% though this was only more effective in healthcare settings and that eye protection reduced the risk by 78%. "
https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covid-19/should-the-2m-social-distancing-rule-be- |
It does need to be managed properly and honestly, but it's a delicate balance of the risk to people's lives through Covid, and also people's lives being destroyed economically, mentally and by other very serious health issues that are currently not being dealt with. | |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:00 - Jun 20 with 1380 views | BloomBlue |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 08:57 - Jun 20 by pointofblue |
To be fair, I think I’m right in saying the World Health Organisation have stated that they’re satisfied with 1m gaps rather than 2m. This has been the one (and only?) area where the government have been extremely cautious. |
Yes the WHO guideline has always been 1 metre (3 feet) for social distancing since the start of the pandemic which is why a lot of Countries use that rule. |  | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:08 - Jun 20 with 1360 views | Basuco |
The reducing of the 2M distancing is purely based on politics and economics and is gambling with our lives. This cannot be reduced without making face mask's compulsory when out side your home, and that is a proper face mask not a home made job. But as we all know there are not enough proper face mask's for NHS use let alone handing them out to the general public. Which is what other Countries have done when relaxing lock down, any reduction will be a massive gamble of lives and risk a second wave of infection and another lock down. |  | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:24 - Jun 20 with 1318 views | linhdi |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:08 - Jun 20 by Basuco |
The reducing of the 2M distancing is purely based on politics and economics and is gambling with our lives. This cannot be reduced without making face mask's compulsory when out side your home, and that is a proper face mask not a home made job. But as we all know there are not enough proper face mask's for NHS use let alone handing them out to the general public. Which is what other Countries have done when relaxing lock down, any reduction will be a massive gamble of lives and risk a second wave of infection and another lock down. |
Agree. 1m distancing is effectively zero. - it is close enough to touch. Sensibly, it would be combined with making face covering complulsory, renewable every few weeks. Which would be fun in the pub (garden). | | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:41 - Jun 20 with 1270 views | Steve_M |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:24 - Jun 20 by linhdi |
Agree. 1m distancing is effectively zero. - it is close enough to touch. Sensibly, it would be combined with making face covering complulsory, renewable every few weeks. Which would be fun in the pub (garden). |
Also worth noting that risk here is a factor of both distance and time of exposure. [Post edited 20 Jun 2020 11:41]
|  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:43 - Jun 20 with 1260 views | eireblue |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:24 - Jun 20 by linhdi |
Agree. 1m distancing is effectively zero. - it is close enough to touch. Sensibly, it would be combined with making face covering complulsory, renewable every few weeks. Which would be fun in the pub (garden). |
My assumption has been 2m Is quoted as it is a large enough gap that people will easily understand there is a gap that needs to be maintained.
The reduction to 1m is being used to determine a capacity in bars/restaurants/shops that allows possibility of opening whilst slowing down transmission rates. Not really a scientific way to prevent transmission, just a way to open up economically and hoping the number of people that will get ill, is below something that looks like a peak. |  | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 12:05 - Jun 20 with 1214 views | bluelagos |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:43 - Jun 20 by eireblue |
My assumption has been 2m Is quoted as it is a large enough gap that people will easily understand there is a gap that needs to be maintained.
The reduction to 1m is being used to determine a capacity in bars/restaurants/shops that allows possibility of opening whilst slowing down transmission rates. Not really a scientific way to prevent transmission, just a way to open up economically and hoping the number of people that will get ill, is below something that looks like a peak. |
Think you are correct, but what else can they do?
At some stage we have to get on with our lives, living with an acceptable level of risk. Some people seem to think we should eliminate the risks but that is not feasible or practical.
Unless or until we have a vaccine I can't see what else we can do?
The level of the disease is now less than 1 in a 1000. The chances of catching it at 1m are said to be 1 in 50. If you are healthy the chances of it killing you are less than 1 in 100. I make that less than a 1 in 5 million chance of a death through standing 1m away from a random person... | |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 12:12 - Jun 20 with 1188 views | eireblue |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 12:05 - Jun 20 by bluelagos |
Think you are correct, but what else can they do?
At some stage we have to get on with our lives, living with an acceptable level of risk. Some people seem to think we should eliminate the risks but that is not feasible or practical.
Unless or until we have a vaccine I can't see what else we can do?
The level of the disease is now less than 1 in a 1000. The chances of catching it at 1m are said to be 1 in 50. If you are healthy the chances of it killing you are less than 1 in 100. I make that less than a 1 in 5 million chance of a death through standing 1m away from a random person... |
Priority would have been to get track and trace working, effectively.
Then open up, which I agree should be slowly done.
But the methods to quickly slow down new spread should be in place before opening up.
To me it feels like they are basically winging it, e.g. hoping transmission won’t outstrip capability to respond. So current policy is based on the previous incompetance. | | | |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 12:50 - Jun 20 with 1145 views | sparks |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:43 - Jun 20 by eireblue |
My assumption has been 2m Is quoted as it is a large enough gap that people will easily understand there is a gap that needs to be maintained.
The reduction to 1m is being used to determine a capacity in bars/restaurants/shops that allows possibility of opening whilst slowing down transmission rates. Not really a scientific way to prevent transmission, just a way to open up economically and hoping the number of people that will get ill, is below something that looks like a peak. |
Precisely.
And what is routinely forgotten / sidelined is the impact of time.
1m as you pass in the street is probably not a risk at all, so long as the person doesn't flob in your eye as you go past.
10 people in a modest space, with limited ventilation, 2m apart, talking and shouting animatedly is vastly more risk. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 14:50 - Jun 20 with 1022 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Well, yes -- and in common with just about everything this government has done it is a pig's ear. They had a pretend lock down with a 2 metre exclusion zone 'guided by the science' ... even though the scientists advised a proper lock down and the WHO 1 metre advice.
Which instantly created the problem of how on earth do you ease a pretend lock down and a go back to 'normal' with a 2 metre social distance.
As sane people have been saying since March, you can't.... so at least pretending to come out of a pretend lock down with a one metre distance makes real life attainable for most again.
It's just a pity that by not locking down, we didn't get rid of the virus, so it will pop back again when things get chilly - but as we'll be in the mother of all recessions by then, expect face masks to replace a pretend lock down. | |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 15:36 - Jun 20 with 956 views | jeera |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 11:41 - Jun 20 by Steve_M |
Also worth noting that risk here is a factor of both distance and time of exposure. [Post edited 20 Jun 2020 11:41]
|
Exactly. Several minutes in the company of someone infected and a metre is pointless.
If there are certain situations where 2 metres simply isn't possible then say so, making it clear that the 2 metres is to be maintained wherever possible. |  |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 17:14 - Jun 20 with 875 views | sparks |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 14:50 - Jun 20 by ElephantintheRoom |
Well, yes -- and in common with just about everything this government has done it is a pig's ear. They had a pretend lock down with a 2 metre exclusion zone 'guided by the science' ... even though the scientists advised a proper lock down and the WHO 1 metre advice.
Which instantly created the problem of how on earth do you ease a pretend lock down and a go back to 'normal' with a 2 metre social distance.
As sane people have been saying since March, you can't.... so at least pretending to come out of a pretend lock down with a one metre distance makes real life attainable for most again.
It's just a pity that by not locking down, we didn't get rid of the virus, so it will pop back again when things get chilly - but as we'll be in the mother of all recessions by then, expect face masks to replace a pretend lock down. |
Do show us the evidence that this particular virus is going to show a significant seasonal response.
The rest of your post, unusually, is pretty accurate. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| It appears that social distancing is dead on 18:17 - Jun 20 with 796 views | eireblue |
Observations from cycle ride today.
Traffic normal, less walkers and leisure cyclists, than during lockdown.
Only social distancing is the queuing outside shops.
Many drivers still can’t wait 30 seconds behind a cyclist when going around a blind bend on a narrow lane.
Sigh... | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
