| Bring on the End Of January 21:51 - Jan 6 with 1127 views | GeoffSentence |
Covid vaccines taking effect, Trump gone. The world should be looking like a much better place. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 21:57 - Jan 6 with 1105 views | Swansea_Blue |
You can add another 6-9 months onto the covid timescale unfortunately. The vast majority aren’t planned to receive them until April onwards and we all know how realistic this Government’s planning isn’t.
It’ll be great to get rid of Trump though and will be fascinating to see what happens to him after leaving office. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 11:52 - Jan 7 with 964 views | GeoffSentence |
| Bring on the End Of January on 21:57 - Jan 6 by Swansea_Blue |
You can add another 6-9 months onto the covid timescale unfortunately. The vast majority aren’t planned to receive them until April onwards and we all know how realistic this Government’s planning isn’t.
It’ll be great to get rid of Trump though and will be fascinating to see what happens to him after leaving office. |
yeah, I should have said 'beginning to take effect'
The million+ old and vulnerable who have had the vaccine should be getting their immunity by then, so hopefully this will translate into reduced hospitalisations and fatalities by the end of Jan. | |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 11:59 - Jan 7 with 942 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Bring on the End Of January on 11:52 - Jan 7 by GeoffSentence |
yeah, I should have said 'beginning to take effect'
The million+ old and vulnerable who have had the vaccine should be getting their immunity by then, so hopefully this will translate into reduced hospitalisations and fatalities by the end of Jan. |
Vaccinating something like 10% of the population. the old and vulnerable, should cut 70% of Covid deaths. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:01 - Jan 7 with 940 views | Mookamoo |
| Bring on the End Of January on 11:52 - Jan 7 by GeoffSentence |
yeah, I should have said 'beginning to take effect'
The million+ old and vulnerable who have had the vaccine should be getting their immunity by then, so hopefully this will translate into reduced hospitalisations and fatalities by the end of Jan. |
Is this our 'Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning' moment?
Oxford vaccine is now in some GP surgeries, Biden is sworn in and Trump has gone out in a blaze of ignominy. Even Brexit, love it or hate it, is now done and we can try to move on and sort stuff out.
We still have the post Christmas infections and subsequent deaths to consider - but we must be near the bottom now. |  | | |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:02 - Jan 7 with 932 views | footers |
You're forgetting my birthday, young man. I'm sure you all have it in your diaries. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:04 - Jan 7 with 927 views | jonbull88 |
| Bring on the End Of January on 11:59 - Jan 7 by GlasgowBlue |
Vaccinating something like 10% of the population. the old and vulnerable, should cut 70% of Covid deaths. |
I fear we will have to vaccinate far more than that to try and lower the chances of it mutating, through which a vaccine might not work. |  | | |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:05 - Jan 7 with 926 views | GeoffSentence |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:01 - Jan 7 by Mookamoo |
Is this our 'Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning' moment?
Oxford vaccine is now in some GP surgeries, Biden is sworn in and Trump has gone out in a blaze of ignominy. Even Brexit, love it or hate it, is now done and we can try to move on and sort stuff out.
We still have the post Christmas infections and subsequent deaths to consider - but we must be near the bottom now. |
I really hope and expect it to be.
But there are always niggling doubts, will Trump try something extreme, will covid thwart the vaccines, will brexit turn into more of a shtshow than expected.
Two weeks to three weeks from now though, I do believe things will be moving in the right direction at last. | |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:05 - Jan 7 with 922 views | GeoffSentence |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:02 - Jan 7 by footers |
You're forgetting my birthday, young man. I'm sure you all have it in your diaries. |
Of course, I thought that went without saying. | |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:06 - Jan 7 with 919 views | Weekender |
| Bring on the End Of January on 11:59 - Jan 7 by GlasgowBlue |
Vaccinating something like 10% of the population. the old and vulnerable, should cut 70% of Covid deaths. |
This will be great of course but will still be quite a way short of enough immunity to stop the spread and given that current hospital admissions seem to including younger people without other health issues I’m still feeling a bit pessimistic. Can’t help but feel it’s going to be mid summer before things can properly relax. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:08 - Jan 7 with 907 views | TractorWood |
| Bring on the End Of January on 21:57 - Jan 6 by Swansea_Blue |
You can add another 6-9 months onto the covid timescale unfortunately. The vast majority aren’t planned to receive them until April onwards and we all know how realistic this Government’s planning isn’t.
It’ll be great to get rid of Trump though and will be fascinating to see what happens to him after leaving office. |
Everyone seems to forget the obvious seasonality. April/May will naturally see numbers reduce. This on top of the vaccine should have things in a decent place.
October/November is the next challenge imo. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:11 - Jan 7 with 893 views | StokieBlue |
| Bring on the End Of January on 11:59 - Jan 7 by GlasgowBlue |
Vaccinating something like 10% of the population. the old and vulnerable, should cut 70% of Covid deaths. |
This is broadly true, especially of the previous wave but there are a lot of "younger" people in hospital this time round. I've not seen any studies on that but it could be that the higher viral load from the B117 variant is taking it's toll on some people.
Also need to be aware that if we opened up after vaccinating 10% (you've not said we should do this of course) then the virus will simply start growing exponentially again as that's not enough for any herd immunity and that gives it many more chances to find vulnerable young people or to mutate.
Certainly the vaccine rollout is a huge plus though and hopefully the government can manage it all successfully.
SB
Edit: Interesting quote here from St. Georges hospital in Tooting:
Staff in one of England's largest hospitals say they are admitting patients in their 20s and 30s to intensive care and it is impossible to predict how any patient will respond to treatment.
St George's Hospital in Tooting, south-west London, has had to vastly expand intensive care capacity and move under-qualified staff to high dependency roles.
Medical registrar Omome Etomi says: "I can't tell you who's going to be unwell and not, who's going to improve and go home and who's going to have a longer stay in ITU,
"I have admitted patients to the intensive care unit in their 20s and 30s, people who have no pre-existing conditions," he tells the PA news agency. "There's almost no pattern to it - we just can't say." [Post edited 7 Jan 2021 12:24]
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| Bring on the End Of January on 12:11 - Jan 7 with 888 views | BlueNomad |
I think Trump has finally overplayed his hand. His support in the corridors of power is beginning to ebb away, leaving just his loon foot soldiers. His generals have already refused his orders over attacking Iran, staff are leaving the White House and his previous allies in the Senate are turning against him (and have lost their power as from 20 Jan - Pence still has casting vote until then). Even his specially chosen Supreme Court judges have "let him down." |  | | |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:26 - Jan 7 with 858 views | gordon |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:04 - Jan 7 by jonbull88 |
I fear we will have to vaccinate far more than that to try and lower the chances of it mutating, through which a vaccine might not work. |
Actually if you wanted to test the propensity of a virus to mutate, you would let the virus get to very high levels of prevalence in a population, and then rapidly introduce partial immunity into the population.
This creates a competitive advantage to more highly mutated variants. The virus has been relatively stable until now because there was so little pre-existing immunity so no advantage to mutations. We're really just getting to the end of the first act.
It's likely that the prevalance of the virus will subside over the spring and summer and then new strains will emerge next autumn / winter. Hopefully not as bad as this winter, but its very difficult to be certain about. |  | | |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:33 - Jan 7 with 840 views | hype313 |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:06 - Jan 7 by Weekender |
This will be great of course but will still be quite a way short of enough immunity to stop the spread and given that current hospital admissions seem to including younger people without other health issues I’m still feeling a bit pessimistic. Can’t help but feel it’s going to be mid summer before things can properly relax. |
Given the rate of infections currently, we will be getting herd immunity by the back door. |  |
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| Bring on the End Of January on 13:11 - Jan 7 with 819 views | gordon |
| Bring on the End Of January on 12:33 - Jan 7 by hype313 |
Given the rate of infections currently, we will be getting herd immunity by the back door. |
There'll be some partial immunity within the population going into each winter period, and the virus will come in periodic waves, but the way it's been described as 'herd immunity' is one of the most misleading aspects of the pandemic.
Prior to this the concept was really only used in relation to large-scale immunisation programs which confer long-term immunity - i.e. the level of population immunised against Measles necessary to prevent outbreaks.
It's very, very unlikely that COVID infection or indeed vaccination confers long-term immunity, so the term just shouldn't be used. | | | |
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