| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? 02:34 - Feb 20 with 2879 views | textbackup |
If that’s the case, we need 27 more points.
7 home games, win them and we are looking good…
Getting a bit tasty this isn’t it |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 06:08 - Feb 20 with 2736 views | OwainG1992 |
Starting to think we can do it.
Which a month ago I'd given up hope for. |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:06 - Feb 20 with 2641 views | BlueBoots |
74 points has been enough to make the play-offs for the past 12 seasons (apart from one, I think)...
13 games to go, form guide for the last 13 games:
https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-one/form/matches:13/type
IF teams continued that form to the end of the season, teams fighting for the play-off spots would have:
MK Dons = 85 Points
Sheffield Wednesday = 81 Points
Plymouth = 79 Points
Oxford = 76 Points
Wycombe = 76 Points
Ipswich = 75 Points
Sunderland = 71 Points
Pretty rough guide that doesn't factor in that there are a lot of fixtures left with these teams playing each other, so some will have to drop points somewhere... [Post edited 20 Feb 2022 7:18]
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:11 - Feb 20 with 2626 views | tractordownsouth |
I think it boils down to If we can get a couple of wins from the 3 games against Plymouth, Oxford and Portsmouth. If we manage that I think we’ll get there, if not we’ll fall short. |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 08:27 - Feb 20 with 2412 views | cbower |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:11 - Feb 20 by tractordownsouth |
I think it boils down to If we can get a couple of wins from the 3 games against Plymouth, Oxford and Portsmouth. If we manage that I think we’ll get there, if not we’ll fall short. |
Got to remember, each game is worth three points. Saying it will come down to certain games feels like the others are a given. I understand key games as they simultaneously deny rivals points but we have to take care of every game as much as possible to make key games really count. |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 08:29 - Feb 20 with 2390 views | tractordownsouth |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 08:27 - Feb 20 by cbower |
Got to remember, each game is worth three points. Saying it will come down to certain games feels like the others are a given. I understand key games as they simultaneously deny rivals points but we have to take care of every game as much as possible to make key games really count. |
Of course. For what it’s worth I think we’ll drop points against others as well, but getting 78 points and beating those 3 and getting 78 points and losing to them is very different. | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 08:36 - Feb 20 with 2350 views | tractorboy1978 |
Was just having a flick through some of the remaining fixtures. There are so many top 11 clashes to come still (I am including Portsmouth as they have 3 games in hand). We just need to concentrate on winning games ourselves as plenty of points are going to be dropped elsewhere. |  | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 10:18 - Feb 20 with 2099 views | BtreeBlueBlood |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 08:36 - Feb 20 by tractorboy1978 |
Was just having a flick through some of the remaining fixtures. There are so many top 11 clashes to come still (I am including Portsmouth as they have 3 games in hand). We just need to concentrate on winning games ourselves as plenty of points are going to be dropped elsewhere. |
10 weeks to go . Teams with smaller squads are going to be feeling it - Pompey 3 more than us - I think they will stumble again.
5-5 with 3pts in the bag whooops!
Come on! |  | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 10:43 - Feb 20 with 2040 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
Looking at how bunched up it is, we'd be very unlucky if 75 wasn't enough. | | | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:03 - Feb 20 with 1861 views | stonojnr |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:06 - Feb 20 by BlueBoots |
74 points has been enough to make the play-offs for the past 12 seasons (apart from one, I think)...
13 games to go, form guide for the last 13 games:
https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-one/form/matches:13/type
IF teams continued that form to the end of the season, teams fighting for the play-off spots would have:
MK Dons = 85 Points
Sheffield Wednesday = 81 Points
Plymouth = 79 Points
Oxford = 76 Points
Wycombe = 76 Points
Ipswich = 75 Points
Sunderland = 71 Points
Pretty rough guide that doesn't factor in that there are a lot of fixtures left with these teams playing each other, so some will have to drop points somewhere... [Post edited 20 Feb 2022 7:18]
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Id say ignore what the other teams are doing, and what points they might get, as long as Town just keep averaging 2pts per game (which would push us to 77pts at present) it should take care of itself.
but if we do miss out by a handful of points, I wont have any problem reminding people why those games back in August/September most definitely did count. | | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:29 - Feb 20 with 1800 views | BlueBoots |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:03 - Feb 20 by stonojnr |
Id say ignore what the other teams are doing, and what points they might get, as long as Town just keep averaging 2pts per game (which would push us to 77pts at present) it should take care of itself.
but if we do miss out by a handful of points, I wont have any problem reminding people why those games back in August/September most definitely did count. |
I get where you're coming from, but think it's important to highlight that teams making a late run for the playoffs rely on teams above them dropping points at the same time, and Sunderland are the only one currently doing that with any regularity - need at least a couple more teams to start having a rocky spell to stand a chance. | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:30 - Feb 20 with 1790 views | J2BLUE |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:11 - Feb 20 by tractordownsouth |
I think it boils down to If we can get a couple of wins from the 3 games against Plymouth, Oxford and Portsmouth. If we manage that I think we’ll get there, if not we’ll fall short. |
Portsmouth are not in the mix.
They are bang average. |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:33 - Feb 20 with 1776 views | Sawtrich |
We're coming at it from such a poor position that we have very little room for error. The whole thing feels like it's hanging by a thread. When Walton went down yesterday and needed treatment I thought, 'we're done if he's out for the season'.
Of course, making the play offs is the easy bit... |  | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:11 - Feb 20 with 1653 views | ParisBlue |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 07:11 - Feb 20 by tractordownsouth |
I think it boils down to If we can get a couple of wins from the 3 games against Plymouth, Oxford and Portsmouth. If we manage that I think we’ll get there, if not we’ll fall short. |
I think it comes down to the next 4 games. Each individually are winnable (and I like the way KM looks at each game individually). Even if we get 8+ points from those I doubt we'll be in the top 6 given the other teams will be playing their games in hand.
But we'd be within hitting distance... |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:24 - Feb 20 with 1611 views | tractordownsouth |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 13:30 - Feb 20 by J2BLUE |
Portsmouth are not in the mix.
They are bang average. |
Does that mean they're better or worse than Saudi Arabia? | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:38 - Feb 20 with 1560 views | J2BLUE |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:24 - Feb 20 by tractordownsouth |
Does that mean they're better or worse than Saudi Arabia? |
WHY DON'T YOU ASK JONNHY BOY?
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:44 - Feb 20 with 1525 views | tractordownsouth |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 14:38 - Feb 20 by J2BLUE |
WHY DON'T YOU ASK JONNHY BOY?
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I'll take that as an ill-tempered draw with at least 2 red cards apiece? | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 15:17 - Feb 20 with 1438 views | MedwayTractor |
1995/6 was the first season with the current set up of 46 teams in the division and 3 points for a win. Since then, the top six places have had the following highest, average and lowest final points totals:
Top: 106/97/81
2nd: 93/87/79
3rd: 90/83/75
4th: 88/80/73
5th: 83/76/71
6th: 76/74/68
I used to think that 70 points would be enough for a play-off place, but the range of these stats suggests that we might need a few more, I think 75 points should be the target. This could be achieved if we can remain undefeated at home, except for the only really tricky home fixture left, which is Wigan on April 18th. From the others, 5 wins & a draw produces 16 points at home, so we need 8 points from 6 away matches. Two away wins and two away draws, then we are there.
But, as someone said once, it's all lies, damned lies and statistics.
See you all at Wembley. |  |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 16:01 - Feb 20 with 1341 views | Stewart27 |
I think we can make the play offs but I never get the required points thing.
We need to get more points than 18 other teams. What if 6 teams got 79 points? | | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 17:35 - Feb 20 with 1178 views | textbackup |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 16:01 - Feb 20 by Stewart27 |
I think we can make the play offs but I never get the required points thing.
We need to get more points than 18 other teams. What if 6 teams got 79 points? |
what if they get 80?
point is, if in my head im aiming for 79, and i think thats more than enough, so working it out...
you may think its more, im unsure | |
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| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 20:33 - Feb 20 with 1000 views | Pilgrimblue |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 17:35 - Feb 20 by textbackup |
what if they get 80?
point is, if in my head im aiming for 79, and i think thats more than enough, so working it out...
you may think its more, im unsure |
WE haven't seen any fall out yet as the top 6 seem to be just maintaining their positions.
The trouble is when they play each other (clearly) but I would like to see both top two win all their remaining games (except ours of course). Thats when we'll see us catch up.
Getting into top 6 asap is essential as it puts pressure on the rest but i'm not counting my chickens as we could so easily lose to lower teams who will be desperate for points. my guess is 79 pints which may not be enough!! |  | | |
| We reckon 78 points gets us a PO spot? on 20:35 - Feb 20 with 982 views | itfcjoe |
Last stats update has it as 78 points gives us an 80% chance of top 6 |  |
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