| Whisper it very quietly, on 14:33 - May 25 with 2999 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
A pretty dangerous period given Putin's instability and his willingness to undertake 'false flag' operations to bolster his support.
The next two weeks are going to be very interesting. |  |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 14:58 - May 25 with 2905 views | homer_123 |
Hasn't Prigozhin been very much 'talk' and no action though, maybe that is now changing? |  |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:00 - May 25 with 2900 views | Guthrum |
Overly optimistic, in my view.
Wagner are being withdrawn from Bakhmut because their formations have been badly smashed up over the past few months (as will happen in any attritional battle). Unless they pull back to reorganise, will cease to exist as an effective fighting force.
They might well be needed shortly to counter the much-heralded Ukrainian spring/summer offensive, given the Russians are relying upon a limited number of more "elite" units (mercenaries, airborne and naval troops) to do the actual fighting. They have to create a reserve in case of breakthrough.
Prigozhin's rants should be taken with a pinch of salt. They are part of an ongoing feud with Shoigu and other senior military figures, not a direct threat to Putin. Indeed he's useful to the latter as a way of letting out some of the pressure created by the so-called "military bloggers" and keeping the generals on their toes. Putin is inclined towards allowing divide-and-rule spats in the same way Hitler was.
There is no such thing as a political opposition in Russia. Putin has crushed or imprisoned all of it. There is nobody to coalesce around as an alternative to the President. The ordinary people have spent 20 years being taught to stay out of politics. Their parents learnt caution over expressing dissident views under the Communists. It's going to take a heck of a lot to generate a revolution.
The best hope of a major shift is that, if and when Ukraine does finally launch their offensive, the Russian army's morale cracks and they start to give up fighting - surrendering en masse or simply going home. That will leave Putin without the tools to continue the war. But even that is a long shot. |  |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:08 - May 25 with 2859 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 14:58 - May 25 by homer_123 |
Hasn't Prigozhin been very much 'talk' and no action though, maybe that is now changing? |
Wagner group have been the majority of the frontline fighting force in Bakhmut. He talks of having committed 50,000 men there, 10,000 of whom have died.
Over the past few weeks he has been in direct verbal conflict with the Generals, and threatening to pull out. Now it appears that he is doing so.
Which means that regular Russian army (a mix of professionals and likely a majority of conscripted soldiers ) are now being forced to takeover in Bakhmut. This has been the city which has seen the highest density of Russian ground troop casualties. If the Ukrainians continue to inflict casualties at the same rate on conscripts (reportedly drafted primarily from the regions rather than the major cities) this may have a major impact on support for the war across Russia.
And the bigger question is "Where are Wagner heading?" To open up another front? To fall back to reserve positions to recover? Or is Prigozhin bringing them back to Russia, in which case 40,000+ veterans will be returning with a narrative that is highly critical of the Kremlin. |  | | |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:27 - May 25 with 2771 views | Guthrum |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:08 - May 25 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Wagner group have been the majority of the frontline fighting force in Bakhmut. He talks of having committed 50,000 men there, 10,000 of whom have died.
Over the past few weeks he has been in direct verbal conflict with the Generals, and threatening to pull out. Now it appears that he is doing so.
Which means that regular Russian army (a mix of professionals and likely a majority of conscripted soldiers ) are now being forced to takeover in Bakhmut. This has been the city which has seen the highest density of Russian ground troop casualties. If the Ukrainians continue to inflict casualties at the same rate on conscripts (reportedly drafted primarily from the regions rather than the major cities) this may have a major impact on support for the war across Russia.
And the bigger question is "Where are Wagner heading?" To open up another front? To fall back to reserve positions to recover? Or is Prigozhin bringing them back to Russia, in which case 40,000+ veterans will be returning with a narrative that is highly critical of the Kremlin. |
If ten thousand are dead, there's probably twice that number of significantly wounded. People returning home with horrific battlefield injuries will have more of an impact even than deaths (who they can swiftly bury and pretend it was clean and heroic).
But also Prigozhin's force will be not much more than a third of the size it once was. Thus less effective in combat, especially if as short of supplies and equipment as he complains. They need to be withdrawn for military reasons, if not to be utterly burnt out.
Thing is, Prigozhin has no base of support. All of his power comes from being one of Putin's cronies. Without the boss, he is nothing more than a dodgy catering entrepreneur. 20k to 40k of battle-weary troops is not going to be enough to sieze power in Moscow. That would be suicide and he'd only be seen as a traitor if he tried. | |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:37 - May 25 with 2698 views | Guthrum |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:08 - May 25 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Wagner group have been the majority of the frontline fighting force in Bakhmut. He talks of having committed 50,000 men there, 10,000 of whom have died.
Over the past few weeks he has been in direct verbal conflict with the Generals, and threatening to pull out. Now it appears that he is doing so.
Which means that regular Russian army (a mix of professionals and likely a majority of conscripted soldiers ) are now being forced to takeover in Bakhmut. This has been the city which has seen the highest density of Russian ground troop casualties. If the Ukrainians continue to inflict casualties at the same rate on conscripts (reportedly drafted primarily from the regions rather than the major cities) this may have a major impact on support for the war across Russia.
And the bigger question is "Where are Wagner heading?" To open up another front? To fall back to reserve positions to recover? Or is Prigozhin bringing them back to Russia, in which case 40,000+ veterans will be returning with a narrative that is highly critical of the Kremlin. |
It might also be the case that Prigozhin is pulling his fighters out before the flanks collapse and they are surrounded, Stalingrad-style. | |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:37 - May 25 with 2693 views | Perublue |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:27 - May 25 by Guthrum |
If ten thousand are dead, there's probably twice that number of significantly wounded. People returning home with horrific battlefield injuries will have more of an impact even than deaths (who they can swiftly bury and pretend it was clean and heroic).
But also Prigozhin's force will be not much more than a third of the size it once was. Thus less effective in combat, especially if as short of supplies and equipment as he complains. They need to be withdrawn for military reasons, if not to be utterly burnt out.
Thing is, Prigozhin has no base of support. All of his power comes from being one of Putin's cronies. Without the boss, he is nothing more than a dodgy catering entrepreneur. 20k to 40k of battle-weary troops is not going to be enough to sieze power in Moscow. That would be suicide and he'd only be seen as a traitor if he tried. |
I don´t remember where I saw it but there was talk of Wagner probably boogering off soon to Sudan for their next pay packet. |  |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:44 - May 25 with 2658 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:00 - May 25 by Guthrum |
Overly optimistic, in my view.
Wagner are being withdrawn from Bakhmut because their formations have been badly smashed up over the past few months (as will happen in any attritional battle). Unless they pull back to reorganise, will cease to exist as an effective fighting force.
They might well be needed shortly to counter the much-heralded Ukrainian spring/summer offensive, given the Russians are relying upon a limited number of more "elite" units (mercenaries, airborne and naval troops) to do the actual fighting. They have to create a reserve in case of breakthrough.
Prigozhin's rants should be taken with a pinch of salt. They are part of an ongoing feud with Shoigu and other senior military figures, not a direct threat to Putin. Indeed he's useful to the latter as a way of letting out some of the pressure created by the so-called "military bloggers" and keeping the generals on their toes. Putin is inclined towards allowing divide-and-rule spats in the same way Hitler was.
There is no such thing as a political opposition in Russia. Putin has crushed or imprisoned all of it. There is nobody to coalesce around as an alternative to the President. The ordinary people have spent 20 years being taught to stay out of politics. Their parents learnt caution over expressing dissident views under the Communists. It's going to take a heck of a lot to generate a revolution.
The best hope of a major shift is that, if and when Ukraine does finally launch their offensive, the Russian army's morale cracks and they start to give up fighting - surrendering en masse or simply going home. That will leave Putin without the tools to continue the war. But even that is a long shot. |
Yes, but...
The Kremlin strategy was to keep Wagner occupying the most attritional roles. Prigozhin has been speaking out of turn, and ultimately has refused to cooperate further with this strategy.
There are only three outcomes here:
1. Wagner forces stay in Ukraine in active roles.
2. Wagner forces drop back to reserve positions to recover.
3. Some, many or all, of the tens of thousands of former prisoners who were offered freedom in exchange for joining Wagner are deemed to have fulfilled that contract and return to Russia.
1 is unlikely, given Prigozhin's rhetoric.
2 is the most likely, but will expose conscripts to unthinkable brutality as they replace Wagner in Bakhmut.
3 is incredibly dangerous for Putin.
Armed uprising of anti-Putin "Free Russians" has begun.
Even in the 2 scenario (Wagner takes reserve positions) there is still a lot of danger of resentment between Wagner and regular Russian Army troops spilling over into skirmishes or worse (as have been reported in the past).
At the very least there are faultlines and divisions. Ukrainian intelligence released a story a few days ago that Wagner operatives in Africa had been trying to negotiate safe passage for Wagner troops away from the war in exchange for betraying positions of Russian units. Probably completely made up, but all designed to put pressure on the trust between two organisations with radically different cultures and leadership styles.
Ceaucescu had completely neutralised all opposition, too. As had Hitler. Sometimes events overtake despots, and the lesson of history is that those who rule by divide and rule end up with a fractured military who prioritise keeping their own position safe over the collective objective, which is exactly what Prigozhin has been complaining Shoigu does.
I'm not saying "Revolution is here- it will all be over by Christmas", what I am saying is that the divisions between Wagner and the Kremlin MoD are now so blatant that the planners in the Kremlin will have a hard time knowing where to deploy Wagner resources. Put them into another Bakhmut and Prigozhin will refuse, put them into defensive positions alongside regular forces and you run the risk of each not being able or willing to depend on the other. Allow them home and the truth will out all across Russia.
But if Wagner can No longer be relied on to supply the forces for the fiercest fighting then that means conscripts from the regular army, and, again, the truth will out in Russian villages.
The division between Prigozhin and the Kremlin is extremely significant, both militarily, because it forces a change of approach, and potentially domestically, in the long-term. | | | |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 16:06 - May 25 with 2546 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:08 - May 25 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Wagner group have been the majority of the frontline fighting force in Bakhmut. He talks of having committed 50,000 men there, 10,000 of whom have died.
Over the past few weeks he has been in direct verbal conflict with the Generals, and threatening to pull out. Now it appears that he is doing so.
Which means that regular Russian army (a mix of professionals and likely a majority of conscripted soldiers ) are now being forced to takeover in Bakhmut. This has been the city which has seen the highest density of Russian ground troop casualties. If the Ukrainians continue to inflict casualties at the same rate on conscripts (reportedly drafted primarily from the regions rather than the major cities) this may have a major impact on support for the war across Russia.
And the bigger question is "Where are Wagner heading?" To open up another front? To fall back to reserve positions to recover? Or is Prigozhin bringing them back to Russia, in which case 40,000+ veterans will be returning with a narrative that is highly critical of the Kremlin. |
"Girkin stated that he believes that Wagner’s actual losses could be more than 1.5 times higher than Prigozhin’s claims and pointed out that of the 50,000 recruits Wagner received from prisons, 10,000 died in action and 26,000 reportedly received pardons and returned to Russia, leaving 14,000 prison recruits unaccounted for. Girkin suggested that a large portion of these 14,000 unaccounted-for prison recruits may have also been killed in action and claimed that Wagner has likely suffered more than 40,000 killed in action." |  |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 16:22 - May 25 with 2463 views | Kropotkin123 |
"Free Russia" groups and Prigozhin are at opposite sides of the political spectrum. Prigozhin is an ultranationalist who is attempting to increase his power at the expense of military general.
"Prigozhin called for complete martial law, several subsequent waves of mobilization, and wide-scale economic mobilization of Russian industry to save Russia. Prigozhin also suggested that Russia should become a totalitarian regime akin to North Korea and close all borders for a certain number of years to achieve victory in Ukraine. Prigozhin has routinely crafted an image to resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and Stalinist totalitarian control."
Prigozhin hasn't been in direct confrontation for weeks, he's been in direct confrontation for almost the entirety of his involvement of the war.
He lost a lot of men and is coming under criticism - "Viktor Alksnis simply remarked that the Soviet Army lost far fewer soldiers (15,051) in nine years in Afghanistan."
Bakmut has also long since been significant as a strategic military target, and if they pull out they could quickly get encircled and lose it. So he is trying to control the narrative. We are more likely to see the end of Prigozhin than the end of Putin. | |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 22:37 - May 25 with 2085 views | Guthrum |
| Whisper it very quietly, on 15:44 - May 25 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Yes, but...
The Kremlin strategy was to keep Wagner occupying the most attritional roles. Prigozhin has been speaking out of turn, and ultimately has refused to cooperate further with this strategy.
There are only three outcomes here:
1. Wagner forces stay in Ukraine in active roles.
2. Wagner forces drop back to reserve positions to recover.
3. Some, many or all, of the tens of thousands of former prisoners who were offered freedom in exchange for joining Wagner are deemed to have fulfilled that contract and return to Russia.
1 is unlikely, given Prigozhin's rhetoric.
2 is the most likely, but will expose conscripts to unthinkable brutality as they replace Wagner in Bakhmut.
3 is incredibly dangerous for Putin.
Armed uprising of anti-Putin "Free Russians" has begun.
Even in the 2 scenario (Wagner takes reserve positions) there is still a lot of danger of resentment between Wagner and regular Russian Army troops spilling over into skirmishes or worse (as have been reported in the past).
At the very least there are faultlines and divisions. Ukrainian intelligence released a story a few days ago that Wagner operatives in Africa had been trying to negotiate safe passage for Wagner troops away from the war in exchange for betraying positions of Russian units. Probably completely made up, but all designed to put pressure on the trust between two organisations with radically different cultures and leadership styles.
Ceaucescu had completely neutralised all opposition, too. As had Hitler. Sometimes events overtake despots, and the lesson of history is that those who rule by divide and rule end up with a fractured military who prioritise keeping their own position safe over the collective objective, which is exactly what Prigozhin has been complaining Shoigu does.
I'm not saying "Revolution is here- it will all be over by Christmas", what I am saying is that the divisions between Wagner and the Kremlin MoD are now so blatant that the planners in the Kremlin will have a hard time knowing where to deploy Wagner resources. Put them into another Bakhmut and Prigozhin will refuse, put them into defensive positions alongside regular forces and you run the risk of each not being able or willing to depend on the other. Allow them home and the truth will out all across Russia.
But if Wagner can No longer be relied on to supply the forces for the fiercest fighting then that means conscripts from the regular army, and, again, the truth will out in Russian villages.
The division between Prigozhin and the Kremlin is extremely significant, both militarily, because it forces a change of approach, and potentially domestically, in the long-term. |
There aren't so many Russian conscripts on the front line, they're trying to keep it to "contract soldiers" (theoretically volunteers, but it's not always so straightforward) as much as possible. For obvious reasons, along the lines of what you're suggesting. Ordinary Russian boys, from Moscow and St Petersburg, dying or being wounded in the war is likely to provoke unrest.
The armed anti-Putin Russians are a couple of tiny groups with disparate aims operating entirely under the wing of the Ukrainians. Nuisance value, but little more.
Absolutely right that divide-and-rule policies eventually undermine efficiency. The blame game is in full swing and it can't be helping Russia's strategy or effectiveness.
Ceaucescu is an interesting case, in that he was brought down by an essentially leaderless movement - but in reality, mostly by his own startling incompetence which drove the populace to desperation. | |
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 14:26 - May 26 with 1691 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
I think he's angling for power.
Putin has bankrolled his private army, made him a millionaire god knows how many times over and now as Putin is weakened he senses blood.
I can imagine him saying to certain ears in the Kremlin put me in charge or I'll withdraw AND maybe start a revolution which mother Russia can't defend becaues
1. Wagner has the most highly trained troops
2. Even if Russia wanted to defend it there would have to be a withdrawal from Ukraine unpalatable to Putin.
Whilst it's hilarious to see Purins crony screwing him over the worry is he's an even bigger nutter.
Tough times [Post edited 26 May 2023 14:47]
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| Whisper it very quietly, on 23:53 - May 26 with 1405 views | Nutkins_Return |
I don't think so unfortunately. Wagner have completed.their objectives (with unbelievable casualties)
Them handing over to Russia 'standard' troops is unfortunately just the natural next step.
The west (We) will push the rheteric of massive tensions but I think this is just how Russia Forces operate (i.e. mercenary groups with the official army).
Russia has always operated with an exceptance of huge losses throughout history. They aren't short of bodies. This thing will churn on. The worrying part will be of/when china get sucked in. Then it becomes world war 3. Pray it doesn't. | |
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