| Putin did his big speech then 08:06 - Sep 21 with 7250 views | Steve_M |
He's getting desperate, fake referendums, partial mobilisation and more vague nuclear threats.
Thread here:
Russia has lost a mere 6,000 soldiers but destroyed half the Ukrainian army apparently. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:13 - Sep 21 with 3373 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
He’s almost reached ‘Chemical/Comical Ali’ levels of delusion.
His legacy will be another Russian leader bringing death and destruction to Europe but it’s hard to see how someone similar won’t follow. |  | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:16 - Sep 21 with 3356 views | Guthrum |
This (very) partial mobilisation and indefinite extension of existing soldier contracts will be a test of Putin's support, both at home (when casualties start coming bavk) and on the front line (battles are lost when soldiers are no longer willing to fight).
Wonder why the speech was delayed from last night. What was going on? |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:20 - Sep 21 with 3325 views | Churchman |
He really is bonkers. He reminds me a bit of Capt Redbeard Rum in Blackadder when he tells Edmund he’s not got a crew.
Edmund: I was under the impression that it was common maritime practice for a ship to have a crew.
Rum: Opinion is divided on the subject.
Edmund: Oh, really?
Rum: Yahs. All the other captains say it is; I say it isn’t. |  | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:27 - Sep 21 with 3290 views | Chrisd |
Feel sorry for the Russian people having this unstable tyrant as their leader. The Ukrainians have a cause to fight, I doubt many Russians will feel the same if they are part of this partial mobilisation. I do worry though, Putin does appear a man backed into a corner and that’s what makes him dangerous. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:30 - Sep 21 with 3266 views | StokieBlue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:27 - Sep 21 by Chrisd |
Feel sorry for the Russian people having this unstable tyrant as their leader. The Ukrainians have a cause to fight, I doubt many Russians will feel the same if they are part of this partial mobilisation. I do worry though, Putin does appear a man backed into a corner and that’s what makes him dangerous. |
Let's be clear here though, he's backed himself into a corner. This is entirely his own doing.
SB |  | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:36 - Sep 21 with 3213 views | Chrisd |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:30 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Let's be clear here though, he's backed himself into a corner. This is entirely his own doing.
SB |
I completely agree SB. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:37 - Sep 21 with 3207 views | lowhouseblue |
it is insanity deployed as a diplomatic tactic. the interview with putin's 'advisor' on the today programme just now is worth a listen - he was fairly blatantly trying to work up a threat to nuke london. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:40 - Sep 21 with 3183 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:37 - Sep 21 by lowhouseblue |
it is insanity deployed as a diplomatic tactic. the interview with putin's 'advisor' on the today programme just now is worth a listen - he was fairly blatantly trying to work up a threat to nuke london. |
Interesting this is happening after meeting the Chinese govt. Presumably they ok-ed this but why? Or if they didn't what will they do now? |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:49 - Sep 21 with 3109 views | lowhouseblue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:40 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
Interesting this is happening after meeting the Chinese govt. Presumably they ok-ed this but why? Or if they didn't what will they do now? |
the timing is interesting given china's rather guarded recent stance. but i guess putin doesn't have a lot of alternatives and is feeling the pressure. the annexation of the occupied areas is raising the stakes. it's very much double or bust. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:54 - Sep 21 with 3073 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:13 - Sep 21 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
He’s almost reached ‘Chemical/Comical Ali’ levels of delusion.
His legacy will be another Russian leader bringing death and destruction to Europe but it’s hard to see how someone similar won’t follow. |
His successor will, however, be much weaker.
Putin has had 20 years of really quite favourable conditions to prepare for this. High revenue from gas and oil exports. Little domestic opposition (what there was he has disposed of). Mild or nonexistant pushback from abroad (with the bonus win of Donald Trump on top).
Whoever follows will inherit a battered economy. Never again will Europe want to put all its energy needs into the one, Russian basket. Diplomatically, the West will be on the lookout and China eager to pick up what bits it can. They will have rival factions among the leadership, none of whom will be keen on returning to a situation with an overmighty autocrat. There may well be separatist unrest, particularly in the ever-restive Caucasus.
Added to that is the endemic problem of corruption and economic plundering, which has hamstrung even a strong regime like Putin's and tore the country apart under the weaker Yeltsin. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:56 - Sep 21 with 3064 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:16 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
This (very) partial mobilisation and indefinite extension of existing soldier contracts will be a test of Putin's support, both at home (when casualties start coming bavk) and on the front line (battles are lost when soldiers are no longer willing to fight).
Wonder why the speech was delayed from last night. What was going on? |
"Wonder why the speech was delayed from last night. What was going on?"
I'd assume some kind of pushback from his ministers/the Russian Parliament. He is now trying to control a very succinct narrative that the west has been making Nuclear threats.
Most or all of his ministers will have connections with the west that circumnavigate the official message. He literally needs 40 other people to believe what he is telling them. Unflinchingly.
It's going to be getting very difficult to do that now. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 08:57 - Sep 21 with 3056 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:40 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
Interesting this is happening after meeting the Chinese govt. Presumably they ok-ed this but why? Or if they didn't what will they do now? |
Think the chinese (and the Indians) demanded the war be ended and this is Putin's way of attempting to do that on his terms.
He doesn't have the political room for a climb-down without threatening his own position - and possibly personal safety. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:02 - Sep 21 with 2986 views | SonOfSpock |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:30 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Let's be clear here though, he's backed himself into a corner. This is entirely his own doing.
SB |
Agreed - however, he is still a nutter with access to a lot of tasty missiles. |  | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:04 - Sep 21 with 2977 views | Steve_M |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:49 - Sep 21 by lowhouseblue |
the timing is interesting given china's rather guarded recent stance. but i guess putin doesn't have a lot of alternatives and is feeling the pressure. the annexation of the occupied areas is raising the stakes. it's very much double or bust. |
I think it was rather more telling that both Xi and Modi were a very long way from supportive of Putin and even quietly critical in public. He's desperate at the moment, although sadly most likely to be replaced with another ultra nationalist. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:06 - Sep 21 with 2959 views | StokieBlue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:02 - Sep 21 by SonOfSpock |
Agreed - however, he is still a nutter with access to a lot of tasty missiles. |
None of which any sane military commander would follow.
As soon as one is detected heading towards London, Washington etc then suddenly the guy who pushed the button knows that his family is about to be vapourised as well.
We have to remember that Putin cannot launch these missiles himself, only issue the command. Perhaps his subordinates are willing to execute that command but I suspect many would not.
SB | | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:06 - Sep 21 with 2943 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:56 - Sep 21 by Cheltenham_Blue |
"Wonder why the speech was delayed from last night. What was going on?"
I'd assume some kind of pushback from his ministers/the Russian Parliament. He is now trying to control a very succinct narrative that the west has been making Nuclear threats.
Most or all of his ministers will have connections with the west that circumnavigate the official message. He literally needs 40 other people to believe what he is telling them. Unflinchingly.
It's going to be getting very difficult to do that now. |
Not the Duma, they are politically irrelevant.
His close circle, Lavrov, Shoigu, etc., have deeply committed themselves to Putinism (less an ideology than a cult). If he falls, very likely so will they - if not in the event, then from the subsequent power-struggle. Moreover, looking back at 1945, several of Hitlers senior men kept up the delusion that they could make deals with the Western Allies in order to lead a crusade against the Soviet Union, depite repeated declarations by the Allies firmly putting that off the table. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:12 - Sep 21 with 2892 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:06 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
None of which any sane military commander would follow.
As soon as one is detected heading towards London, Washington etc then suddenly the guy who pushed the button knows that his family is about to be vapourised as well.
We have to remember that Putin cannot launch these missiles himself, only issue the command. Perhaps his subordinates are willing to execute that command but I suspect many would not.
SB |
The real risk is if Putin believes that the Lady of Kazan, or some other icon, will miraculously protect Russia from Western missiles. So they can launch in perfect safety from retaliation.
On a more mundane level, there is a cultural belief (going back to Tsarist times) that ordinary Russians will accept more suffering than other nations, that the latter are soft and will always fold under pressure. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:15 - Sep 21 with 2857 views | StokieBlue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:12 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
The real risk is if Putin believes that the Lady of Kazan, or some other icon, will miraculously protect Russia from Western missiles. So they can launch in perfect safety from retaliation.
On a more mundane level, there is a cultural belief (going back to Tsarist times) that ordinary Russians will accept more suffering than other nations, that the latter are soft and will always fold under pressure. |
Once again though, the important distinction is that Putin doesn't launch the missiles.
He issues the command, others wrestle with their conscience and decide whether to push the button, a battle I suspect the button wouldn't win a lot of the time.
Like it did for this guy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
SB | | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:22 - Sep 21 with 2777 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:15 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Once again though, the important distinction is that Putin doesn't launch the missiles.
He issues the command, others wrestle with their conscience and decide whether to push the button, a battle I suspect the button wouldn't win a lot of the time.
Like it did for this guy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
SB |
Indeed. But Putin has spent 20 years putting his people into the command structure. The missile systems themselves are dispersed (mobile launchers to avoid detection and counterstrike), if even a few launch, the situation becomes highly dangerous. Finally, how informed will those pressing the buttons be of the actual situation, that they aren't responding to a Western strike? | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:23 - Sep 21 with 2760 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:22 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
Indeed. But Putin has spent 20 years putting his people into the command structure. The missile systems themselves are dispersed (mobile launchers to avoid detection and counterstrike), if even a few launch, the situation becomes highly dangerous. Finally, how informed will those pressing the buttons be of the actual situation, that they aren't responding to a Western strike? |
Any idea how good (if any) our anti-missile defenses are? | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:24 - Sep 21 with 2723 views | StokieBlue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:23 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
Any idea how good (if any) our anti-missile defenses are? |
Known ones: Totally useless against an ICBM.
Unknown ones: Who knows, the US were looking at laser defences seriously as far back as the late 1980's.
SB | | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:31 - Sep 21 with 2613 views | blueasfook |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:23 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
Any idea how good (if any) our anti-missile defenses are? |
US have systems like THAAD and AEGIS (and possibly others we dont know about). UK have basically nothing! [Post edited 21 Sep 2022 9:32]
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:32 - Sep 21 with 2599 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:24 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Known ones: Totally useless against an ICBM.
Unknown ones: Who knows, the US were looking at laser defences seriously as far back as the late 1980's.
SB |
Indeed. The speed an ICBM comes in at, combined with countermeasures, decoys and some ability to maneuver, makes warheads practically impossible to detect and track, let alone get a missile up there in time to make an interception and destroy the target.
It's been done a couple of times under the most favourable test conditions against single targets. But in a war situation, there would be dozens, possibly hundreds, of missiles inbound, many with multiple warheads. | |
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