| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? 21:57 - Apr 18 with 1609 views | Kievthegreat |
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
Chances of finishing top 2 before today:
Ipswich - 84%
Plymouth - 81%
Sheffield - 21%
Barnsley - 12%
After todays game:
Plymouth - 88% (+7%)
Ipswich - 84% (n/c)
Sheffield - 23% (+2%)
Barnsley - 4% (-8%)
And now chances of winning the league in their simulations...
Ipswich 38% (-8%)
Plymouth 57% (+12%)
Wednesday 5% (+1%)
Barnsley <1% (-4%)
Plymouth and Wednesday navigating trick away games has seen their chances in the simulation increase, but at the expense of Barnsley who are almost out of it now. We remain just as likely to clinch Autos, but we lose ground in the race for the title as Plymouth get 3 'easier' home games on the bounce which makes them more likely to see it through. |  | | |  |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 21:58 - Apr 18 with 1544 views | J2BLUE |
I'll take it now if you're offering |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:00 - Apr 18 with 1496 views | Daninthecampo |
Promotion is key the title is an added bonus,obviously I'm still desperate for the title! |  | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:02 - Apr 18 with 1430 views | BrianTablet |
It's predicting points will be:
Plymouth - 97
Ipswich - 96
Sheffield - 93
Barnsley - 89
I'd take that if it meant we were promoted vs Exeter and not having to go through the hell that would be Fleetwood away needing something. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:03 - Apr 18 with 1408 views | King_ding_a_lin_g |
Who cares about lifting any trophy in the third division... just get me out of this sh1tty league! |  | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:18 - Apr 18 with 1266 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
Couldn’t care less. Promotion first, Champions second. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:18 - Apr 18 with 1261 views | Herbivore |
Their simulations haven't proven to be all that accurate thus far. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:19 - Apr 18 with 1233 views | J2BLUE |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:18 - Apr 18 by Herbivore |
Their simulations haven't proven to be all that accurate thus far. |
It's absolute b0llocks isn't it? Adjusted after each game...kind of like the league table... | |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:21 - Apr 18 with 1211 views | Herbivore |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:19 - Apr 18 by J2BLUE |
It's absolute b0llocks isn't it? Adjusted after each game...kind of like the league table... |
Wednesday were a similar percentage to finish top 2 as we now are at one point. It doesn't really mean a lot. | |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:42 - Apr 18 with 1110 views | Kievthegreat |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:18 - Apr 18 by Herbivore |
Their simulations haven't proven to be all that accurate thus far. |
Some bits have. Looking back at their pre-season predictions, they had Wednesday 2nd, Us 3rd and Barnsley 4th. However, they had Derby as favourites, MK Dons 5th and Plymouth in 11th, so definitely not perfect.
At one point (14th March) Wednesday were 96% to finish top 2 and were 22 games unbeaten. If you had said at that point, what are the odds Wednesday go the next 9 games getting just 10 points out of a possible 27 while in the same period we pick up 16 out of possible 18. I'd say the odds were vanishingly small, yet here we are in that very scenario. | | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 23:26 - Apr 18 with 953 views | Gaztactor |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 22:42 - Apr 18 by Kievthegreat |
Some bits have. Looking back at their pre-season predictions, they had Wednesday 2nd, Us 3rd and Barnsley 4th. However, they had Derby as favourites, MK Dons 5th and Plymouth in 11th, so definitely not perfect.
At one point (14th March) Wednesday were 96% to finish top 2 and were 22 games unbeaten. If you had said at that point, what are the odds Wednesday go the next 9 games getting just 10 points out of a possible 27 while in the same period we pick up 16 out of possible 18. I'd say the odds were vanishingly small, yet here we are in that very scenario. |
It's great!! Yes Plymouth are odds on to win the league...they have win more games than anyone else and are good value to win the league. But we don't have to worry about them because they are way above their heads and will struggle next season
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 11:11 - Apr 19 with 648 views | DJR |
After last night (which shows no game is a gimme), and with our remaining games more difficult than Wednesday's, I would have thought the respective percentage chances of promotion would be a fair bit closer than that. |  | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Settle for Second? on 11:21 - Apr 19 with 597 views | GeoffSentence |
I wish they'd put the timezone on the update time, catches me out every time. |  |
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