| Rommers - your US Election bets 17:43 - Nov 6 with 2731 views | Zx1988 |
I was very interested in your bet on Trump to win the Electoral College and Harris to win the popular vote, and was inclined to agree with you that the odds on that particular combo were well out of whack with the likely reality of the situation.
Given what happened last night, do you think this is a bit of a shock result for everyone? Or were the markets privy to additional information that, to their mind, justified the anomalous-looking pricing? [Post edited 6 Nov 2024 17:44]
|  |
| |  |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 18:15 - Nov 6 with 2605 views | J2BLUE |
Unlikely they had any major extra info but it makes sense that there was a bit of a premium.
It's like a double on a team to win a match and the other team to have more shots on target.
In theory, more shots on target means more chances to score so for that part to win the other part, the team to win, is already less likely.
It still seemed a value bet based on the individual prices. The added premium seemed large based on historical elections. |  |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 19:45 - Nov 6 with 2461 views | DinDjarin |
Given that over the last couple months the following was happening
Increased Hispanic vote
Increased Black vote
Increased Muslim vote
Increased Jewish vote
Increased voter registrations in urban areas
More first time voter registrations than the Democrats
Democrats is the country on the right track rating of 28%
Republicans base energised
It was highly likely Trump would do a clean sweep, White House, Senate, Lower House & Popular vote.
I'm just curious where the 14 million missing Democrat votes from 2020 (81 million to 67 million) went to as Trump is also down 2 million from 2020? |  | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:01 - Nov 6 with 2403 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 19:45 - Nov 6 by DinDjarin |
Given that over the last couple months the following was happening
Increased Hispanic vote
Increased Black vote
Increased Muslim vote
Increased Jewish vote
Increased voter registrations in urban areas
More first time voter registrations than the Democrats
Democrats is the country on the right track rating of 28%
Republicans base energised
It was highly likely Trump would do a clean sweep, White House, Senate, Lower House & Popular vote.
I'm just curious where the 14 million missing Democrat votes from 2020 (81 million to 67 million) went to as Trump is also down 2 million from 2020? |
Do those numbers follow through in relation to a much reduced turn out? |  |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:14 - Nov 6 with 2368 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:01 - Nov 6 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Do those numbers follow through in relation to a much reduced turn out? |
So just seen a projection of 65% turn out compared to 67% previously and a 2020 electorate of 240 million. So a drop of 5 million votes. Can't imagine the demographic has changed that much in 4 years. | |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:30 - Nov 6 with 2335 views | Vegtablue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 19:45 - Nov 6 by DinDjarin |
Given that over the last couple months the following was happening
Increased Hispanic vote
Increased Black vote
Increased Muslim vote
Increased Jewish vote
Increased voter registrations in urban areas
More first time voter registrations than the Democrats
Democrats is the country on the right track rating of 28%
Republicans base energised
It was highly likely Trump would do a clean sweep, White House, Senate, Lower House & Popular vote.
I'm just curious where the 14 million missing Democrat votes from 2020 (81 million to 67 million) went to as Trump is also down 2 million from 2020? |
Has any state finished counting yet? I know they've mostly declared but I believe most if not all are still working their way up to 100%. Also I believe turnout was down roughly 2% on 2020, which would make up the remainder as voting numbers for other candidates is similar. | | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:33 - Nov 6 with 2321 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:30 - Nov 6 by Vegtablue |
Has any state finished counting yet? I know they've mostly declared but I believe most if not all are still working their way up to 100%. Also I believe turnout was down roughly 2% on 2020, which would make up the remainder as voting numbers for other candidates is similar. |
2% only accounts for 5 million. | |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:48 - Nov 6 with 2285 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Hi mate - iI don’t think there was any particular extra info with a market like that but just that it mathematically was priced wrongly. Albeit it didn’t pay so I suppose that’s what they would hope for.
I ended up about £100 up from the trump original bet but obviously the extra bit with the popular vote going Harris would’ve been another £825 back.
But profits profit so we move on to the next.
Last night was good in the chat room again so I hope to see everyone there again for 2028 |  |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:56 - Nov 6 with 2230 views | J2BLUE |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:48 - Nov 6 by The_Romford_Blue |
Hi mate - iI don’t think there was any particular extra info with a market like that but just that it mathematically was priced wrongly. Albeit it didn’t pay so I suppose that’s what they would hope for.
I ended up about £100 up from the trump original bet but obviously the extra bit with the popular vote going Harris would’ve been another £825 back.
But profits profit so we move on to the next.
Last night was good in the chat room again so I hope to see everyone there again for 2028 |
As you said in chat, the main thing is your hero won and the money was just a bonus. | |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 21:17 - Nov 6 with 2151 views | SitfcB |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:56 - Nov 6 by J2BLUE |
As you said in chat, the main thing is your hero won and the money was just a bonus. |
That’s Rommy on Scott’s ignore list. |  |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 21:54 - Nov 6 with 2059 views | Vegtablue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:33 - Nov 6 by BanksterDebtSlave |
2% only accounts for 5 million. |
That would be the remainder, with the larger portion made up of votes still being counted.
California is reporting 58.3% counted, for instance. [Post edited 6 Nov 2024 21:59]
| | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 21:57 - Nov 6 with 2035 views | DropCliffsNotBombs |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:56 - Nov 6 by J2BLUE |
As you said in chat, the main thing is your hero won and the money was just a bonus. |
His love and fetishisation for Trump was slightly overwhming. Even Europa thought he was going a bit far. |  | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 23:27 - Nov 6 with 1878 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:56 - Nov 6 by J2BLUE |
As you said in chat, the main thing is your hero won and the money was just a bonus. |
 | |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:05 - Nov 7 with 1601 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:33 - Nov 6 by BanksterDebtSlave |
2% only accounts for 5 million. |
Isn’t turn out based on those registered to vote. Presumably a lower percentage of those entitled to register to vote actually did so. |  |
| |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:18 - Nov 7 with 1570 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 20:48 - Nov 6 by The_Romford_Blue |
Hi mate - iI don’t think there was any particular extra info with a market like that but just that it mathematically was priced wrongly. Albeit it didn’t pay so I suppose that’s what they would hope for.
I ended up about £100 up from the trump original bet but obviously the extra bit with the popular vote going Harris would’ve been another £825 back.
But profits profit so we move on to the next.
Last night was good in the chat room again so I hope to see everyone there again for 2028 |
Glad you won a little bit of cash as we now watch climate measures being rolled back, criminals from the attack on the senate released, Ukraine left isolated, Palestinians even more disadvantaged, American democracy going down the toilet and much much more.
Hey well done |  | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 13:57 - Nov 7 with 1438 views | Vegtablue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:05 - Nov 7 by Pinewoodblue |
Isn’t turn out based on those registered to vote. Presumably a lower percentage of those entitled to register to vote actually did so. |
Over there they base it on all citizens who are allowed to register to vote, so 5m is about right. In 2020 the turnout of 158.5m equated to 66%, so a voting-eligible population of 240m, with 2% equalling 4.8m. Add on the 7m uncounted votes in California, couple of million elsewhere, and my guess is Harris will finish in the low 70 millions, Trump in the mid 70 millions. | | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 14:51 - Nov 7 with 1345 views | BlueStreak |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:18 - Nov 7 by reusersfreekicks |
Glad you won a little bit of cash as we now watch climate measures being rolled back, criminals from the attack on the senate released, Ukraine left isolated, Palestinians even more disadvantaged, American democracy going down the toilet and much much more.
Hey well done |
Not sure his bet had an impact on the result of the election babes xxx |  | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 15:29 - Nov 7 with 1260 views | StNeotsBlue |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:18 - Nov 7 by reusersfreekicks |
Glad you won a little bit of cash as we now watch climate measures being rolled back, criminals from the attack on the senate released, Ukraine left isolated, Palestinians even more disadvantaged, American democracy going down the toilet and much much more.
Hey well done |
Bit unnecessary, the guy winning a few quid is a good thing, Trump winning an election is a bad thing. |  | | |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 15:39 - Nov 7 with 1214 views | usm |
| Rommers - your US Election bets on 11:18 - Nov 7 by reusersfreekicks |
Glad you won a little bit of cash as we now watch climate measures being rolled back, criminals from the attack on the senate released, Ukraine left isolated, Palestinians even more disadvantaged, American democracy going down the toilet and much much more.
Hey well done |
Yep, all of that is down to Rommers.
Hope he's got broad shoulders. |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
