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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table 23:54 - Feb 19 with 1576 viewsGuthrum

As of today, usual methodology (projection forward of recent form equivalent to remaining matches). Doesn't make pretty reading for us, but if we can keep winning (our run-in is quite favourable), then we still stand a chance.



Edit: You have to click on it to get the table, it doesn't like my non-HTTPS siting.
[Post edited 19 Feb 23:55]

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 01:00 - Feb 20 with 1439 viewsGirthyguy

That table looks very grim for us.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 02:15 - Feb 20 with 1396 viewsWacko

Bolton to overturn a 12-point deficit? And we will in no way finish 10th
[Post edited 20 Feb 3:02]

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 04:21 - Feb 20 with 1354 viewsIllinoisblue

Guthers, you are a respected poster with a history of making well-reasoned posts backed up with solid positioning and context.

You’d better be bloody wrong on this one. TENTH?!?!?!?!

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 04:43 - Feb 20 with 1322 viewsjeera

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 04:21 - Feb 20 by Illinoisblue

Guthers, you are a respected poster with a history of making well-reasoned posts backed up with solid positioning and context.

You’d better be bloody wrong on this one. TENTH?!?!?!?!


I'm pretty sure it's based on recent/present form and not his personal choice.

Another handful of games and it could look completely different.

Hell, Bolton could be in 10th and we might be 3rd from bottom.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:00 - Feb 20 with 1210 viewsWacko

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 04:43 - Feb 20 by jeera

I'm pretty sure it's based on recent/present form and not his personal choice.

Another handful of games and it could look completely different.

Hell, Bolton could be in 10th and we might be 3rd from bottom.


That's why form is never a good indicator. Just because you lose to Liverpool, Man City and Leicester doesn't mean you'll then lose to Scum

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:24 - Feb 20 with 1166 viewsQuilterstown

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:00 - Feb 20 by Wacko

That's why form is never a good indicator. Just because you lose to Liverpool, Man City and Leicester doesn't mean you'll then lose to Scum


Alternative view...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:42 - Feb 20 with 1120 viewsSuperblue95

Think something might have gone wrong with your goal difference column

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:44 - Feb 20 with 1114 viewsHerbivore

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:00 - Feb 20 by Wacko

That's why form is never a good indicator. Just because you lose to Liverpool, Man City and Leicester doesn't mean you'll then lose to Scum


No, but you could take a 6-8 games slice from any period since the beginning of October and we'd probably not be in the top 6. Our strong start is the only reason we are still in with a chance. Thankfully our run in looks kind of paper, but we need to bear in mind we had numerous games in November and December where we failed to win against a similar calibre of opposition.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:46 - Feb 20 with 1108 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:00 - Feb 20 by Wacko

That's why form is never a good indicator. Just because you lose to Liverpool, Man City and Leicester doesn't mean you'll then lose to Scum


However, it's a contrast to those using prediction calculators, the outcomes of which will inevitably be guided by subjective thoughts - even wishful thinking.

This is a purely mechanical process based on how well teams are doing at the moment. Over several matches (in this case between 12 and 15), those issues of playing better or worse opposition generally even themselves out.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:48 - Feb 20 with 1100 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:42 - Feb 20 by Superblue95

Think something might have gone wrong with your goal difference column


Yes, you're right. It has. I've subtracted the "losses" column instead of "goals against".

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:50 - Feb 20 with 1095 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 02:15 - Feb 20 by Wacko

Bolton to overturn a 12-point deficit? And we will in no way finish 10th
[Post edited 20 Feb 3:02]


It's more a reflection on how badly Tranmere are doing, combined with the fact Bolton have more games left than anyone else.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:04 - Feb 20 with 1039 viewsGeoffSentence

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 02:15 - Feb 20 by Wacko

Bolton to overturn a 12-point deficit? And we will in no way finish 10th
[Post edited 20 Feb 3:02]


Even by Guther's method Bolton don't manage to overturn that deficit, three teams get relagated.

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:12 - Feb 20 with 1001 viewshomer_123

Sadly - that top 6 looks about right.

Oxford, Fleetwood, Coventry and Portsmouth home matches I think will make or break us.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:18 - Feb 20 with 963 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:04 - Feb 20 by GeoffSentence

Even by Guther's method Bolton don't manage to overturn that deficit, three teams get relagated.


Yes, you're right, too used to the Championship!

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Errata on 08:21 - Feb 20 with 951 viewsGuthrum

Things pointed out by Superblue and GeoffSentence now corrected.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:21 - Feb 20 with 953 viewsDarth_Koont

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 07:46 - Feb 20 by Guthrum

However, it's a contrast to those using prediction calculators, the outcomes of which will inevitably be guided by subjective thoughts - even wishful thinking.

This is a purely mechanical process based on how well teams are doing at the moment. Over several matches (in this case between 12 and 15), those issues of playing better or worse opposition generally even themselves out.


Indeed. And I like these as they're a snapshot of where sides are heading even if that changes next game with one good or poor result.

It's indicative that even if we *should* perform better over an easier run in we'll need to actually do that (and quite noticeably too) if we're going to end up back near the top.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:23 - Feb 20 with 947 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:21 - Feb 20 by Darth_Koont

Indeed. And I like these as they're a snapshot of where sides are heading even if that changes next game with one good or poor result.

It's indicative that even if we *should* perform better over an easier run in we'll need to actually do that (and quite noticeably too) if we're going to end up back near the top.


We're going to need to win practically every game, unless the form of the front-runners drops off significantly.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:27 - Feb 20 with 932 viewsBluefish

We are sick of you trolls coming on here and posting all of this stuff about how bad it is under PRP. Why can't you just get behind the team? I am going to cry until Phil bans you. Wibble wibble flounce flounce

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:36 - Feb 20 with 905 viewsDarth_Koont

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:23 - Feb 20 by Guthrum

We're going to need to win practically every game, unless the form of the front-runners drops off significantly.


It's likely to drop off considering they're on excellent runs and those generally don't last.

But yes, there's a lot of ground to make up and we can't afford many (any?) slip ups. There are enough sides in and around the promotion race that a couple will go on very good runs ... we now need to be one of them.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table (n/t) on 09:08 - Feb 20 with 837 viewsSitfcB

[Post edited 20 Feb 9:10]

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:49 - Feb 20 with 748 viewsJohnny_Boy

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 04:21 - Feb 20 by Illinoisblue

Guthers, you are a respected poster with a history of making well-reasoned posts backed up with solid positioning and context.

You’d better be bloody wrong on this one. TENTH?!?!?!?!


IIRC, last season a Championship club had a good solid run of 5 games win bounce just as you did the same Predictor - think you put them top of the league. Their name ultimately escapes me now, but they really didn’t even finish in the Top 14.

Not a dig! Please don’t take it as one. Maybe you’ve got a backup file from last years predictor in the Champ to jog my terrible memory? Was it Wigan?
[Post edited 9 Mar 11:14]
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:51 - Feb 20 with 728 viewsPecker

10th? I have us on 84 points, which should be good enough for 1st or 2nd. You have us in 10th?
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:56 - Feb 20 with 702 viewsJammyDodgerrr

Honestly if Gillingham make it in the play offs and we don't, i'll happily quit following football.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:19 - Feb 20 with 629 viewshoppy

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:18 - Feb 20 by Guthrum

Yes, you're right, too used to the Championship!


No excuse, Mr Guthrum. Three get relegated from the championship too.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:21 - Feb 20 with 523 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:19 - Feb 20 by hoppy

No excuse, Mr Guthrum. Three get relegated from the championship too.


Except Bury have gone, so it's 3 instead of 4 for L1 this season.

Expecting a whoosh ...

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