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The elephant in the room is 08:09 - Mar 19 with 2499 viewsOxford_Blue

How long the majority of the population will accept brutal measures that decimate their jobs, freedom and futures to protect the elderly and unwell. It’s a grim and morally repulsive situation but sooner or later aren’t people going to say it’s better 300,000 elderly and unwell die than the entire country’s economy is destroyed? It will be a political choice ultimately but i predict many will let self interest govern their behaviour after a few months of this.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:33 - Mar 19 with 1858 viewsGuthrum

The population managed six years of significant restrictions (and a high mortality rate) during the Second World War. Even to the point of emerging with the economy on its knees, to the point that rationing got more strict after the War than during it. If there is something they are fighting against, people will accept much more than if there is no valid reason.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:34 - Mar 19 with 1851 viewshampstead_blue

Mass casualty triage!

WOW that would be a bold move.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:35 - Mar 19 with 1848 viewsHerbivore

I think it'll be more the government than the people to be honest. Can they afford to tank the economy over a period of 18 months and then stomach several years of recovery whilst trying to deliver Brexit? They are more likely to be the ones to decide that they can live with a low six figure death toll.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:40 - Mar 19 with 1827 viewsgordon

We're already effectively prioritising politics over the welfare of our population in not enforcing the measures that we should be enforcing. In three weeks, when the hospitals are swamped, hundreds are dying, and staff are working in dreadful situations, the decisions made now not to close pubs/cafes/offices/restaurants etc. because our Prime Minister believes in 'freedom' will look horrific.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:43 - Mar 19 with 1806 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 08:35 - Mar 19 by Herbivore

I think it'll be more the government than the people to be honest. Can they afford to tank the economy over a period of 18 months and then stomach several years of recovery whilst trying to deliver Brexit? They are more likely to be the ones to decide that they can live with a low six figure death toll.


If there is even a hint that the Government has let large numbers of people die for the sake of the economy, when those lives could have been saved, they will not be elected again. Even party members/MPs are likely to rebel at that.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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The elephant in the room is on 08:44 - Mar 19 with 1804 viewsOxford_Blue

The elephant in the room is on 08:33 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

The population managed six years of significant restrictions (and a high mortality rate) during the Second World War. Even to the point of emerging with the economy on its knees, to the point that rationing got more strict after the War than during it. If there is something they are fighting against, people will accept much more than if there is no valid reason.


Ww2 very very different.

We were never invaded. You could hear the bombers. You could take shelter. You could go to the countryside.
There was nothing approaching total isolation for millions for a prolonged period in every part of the country. And the war time economy continued - shops stayed open as did pubs and this was vital to the spirit and community that helped people.

Very different to now.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:45 - Mar 19 with 1796 viewsgordon

The elephant in the room is on 08:43 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

If there is even a hint that the Government has let large numbers of people die for the sake of the economy, when those lives could have been saved, they will not be elected again. Even party members/MPs are likely to rebel at that.


This is exactly what's happening.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:49 - Mar 19 with 1768 viewsDeano69

Yeah, Corona Virus out

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The elephant in the room is on 08:49 - Mar 19 with 1767 viewsOxford_Blue

The elephant in the room is on 08:45 - Mar 19 by gordon

This is exactly what's happening.


What do you mean?

Major restrictions are in place which are having a massive impact on the economy and this is being done to avoid the mass deaths.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:50 - Mar 19 with 1764 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 08:45 - Mar 19 by gordon

This is exactly what's happening.


Is it? Or is this more a matter of not compressing the whole of society into a draconian lockdown before it is strictly necessary on medical grounds?

Worth noting that the complete lockdowns in China and South Korea were regional, around the centres of the disease, not national.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 with 1766 viewsbluelagos

Am very conflicted tbh.

Hate the idea of a police state (which seems to be were we are heading) but not keen on hundred's of thousands of old people dying needless deaths cos I can't change my social habits.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 with 1764 viewsBrixtonBlue

The elephant in the room is on 08:43 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

If there is even a hint that the Government has let large numbers of people die for the sake of the economy, when those lives could have been saved, they will not be elected again. Even party members/MPs are likely to rebel at that.


This has already happened, and they were elected again, by a huge majority.

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 with 1763 viewsOxford_Blue

The elephant in the room is on 08:40 - Mar 19 by gordon

We're already effectively prioritising politics over the welfare of our population in not enforcing the measures that we should be enforcing. In three weeks, when the hospitals are swamped, hundreds are dying, and staff are working in dreadful situations, the decisions made now not to close pubs/cafes/offices/restaurants etc. because our Prime Minister believes in 'freedom' will look horrific.


How do you actually enforce measures in a country of 68 million that isn’t a police state and doesn’t have the mechanisms to enforce martial law? Pray tell.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:52 - Mar 19 with 1764 viewsSwansea_Blue

I'd hardly say it's the elephant in the room - there's been a lot of people calling for help for workers, especially those most vulnerable. We've started, but other countries have gone much further.

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The elephant in the room is on 08:57 - Mar 19 with 1734 viewsBrixtonBlue

The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 by Oxford_Blue

How do you actually enforce measures in a country of 68 million that isn’t a police state and doesn’t have the mechanisms to enforce martial law? Pray tell.


By withholding/redirecting funds. The Artist Formally Known as 'austerity'.
[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 8:57]

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
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The elephant in the room is on 08:58 - Mar 19 with 1730 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 08:44 - Mar 19 by Oxford_Blue

Ww2 very very different.

We were never invaded. You could hear the bombers. You could take shelter. You could go to the countryside.
There was nothing approaching total isolation for millions for a prolonged period in every part of the country. And the war time economy continued - shops stayed open as did pubs and this was vital to the spirit and community that helped people.

Very different to now.


People dying tends to concentrate the mind. I know one person who has Covid-19 (with quite bad symptoms - it's nothing like "a slight dose of flu") and the elderly grandmother of a friend has it, but is so far without symptoms. The first bloke thinks he probably caught it in the pub.

Unlike the War, we nowadays have the ability to maintain social contact over the internet, even when physically isolated.

This also won't last for six years non-stop. They're talking around a year to mass-produce a vaccine.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:02 - Mar 19 with 1704 viewsHerbivore

The elephant in the room is on 08:43 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

If there is even a hint that the Government has let large numbers of people die for the sake of the economy, when those lives could have been saved, they will not be elected again. Even party members/MPs are likely to rebel at that.


I think relatively large numbers are going to die regardless. And large numbers will die as a result of poverty and isolation if the country shuts down for 18 months. There's no straightforward solution to this.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:06 - Mar 19 with 1688 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 by BrixtonBlue

This has already happened, and they were elected again, by a huge majority.


You know and I know that people died because of Austerity and the harsh welfare state environment*. But it has not been that well publicised and the links were insufficiently direct that it could not be challenged by those so inclined.

In this case, the death rates are obvious, clearly linked to policy and liable to be on a much larger scale. Rather than people hearing a few reports of suicides, most people would actually know someone who had died - often an elderly relative.


* I know personally one of the journalists who first pursued it.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:17 - Mar 19 with 1663 viewsBrianTablet

The elephant in the room is on 08:49 - Mar 19 by Deano69

Yeah, Corona Virus out


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The elephant in the room is on 09:20 - Mar 19 with 1654 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 09:02 - Mar 19 by Herbivore

I think relatively large numbers are going to die regardless. And large numbers will die as a result of poverty and isolation if the country shuts down for 18 months. There's no straightforward solution to this.


Short of an Italian-style collapse, I'm not sure the total number of deaths is going to be all that high in the UK.

The Italians were very unfortunate in that a particular case was misdiagnosed, infected a number of people and set off a cascade which overwhelmed the health system. Similarly, in South Korea, the disease got into a tight-knit, but fairly large, church community, a sizeable proportion of whom were then exposed.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup was our potential flashpoint, but so far we seem to have got away with it.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:20 - Mar 19 with 1656 viewsDarth_Koont

Based on the data so far, there's a fair compromise ahead by separating the population into the retirees and/or at-risk through existing health conditions and the rest of the population. There doesn't seem to be a one-size fits all approach that manages both groups from a healthcare or an economic and social wellbeing perspective.

In the first group we need to reduce exposure and limp our way to a vaccine. In the second group of kids and the working population we'll need to get back to "normal" life to prevent long-term costs and indeed the severe health effects of a punishing recession.

I suspect that means us seeing out these first months of the outbreak to see where we are and then trying to ease back into normal life over the late Spring/early Summer. Meanwhile the vulnerable need to be self-isolating as a preventive step.

A couple of caveats though: 1/ it's still too early to say that letting the under 60 and reasonably fit population go toe to toe with Covid-19 will be manageable and 2/ Any economic calculation is dependent on the global economy getting back on its feet. That will require cooperation and likely sacrifice from some of the more developed countries to help countries less prepared. And also that the pandemic brings the US and China closer together rather than further apart. With Trump on one side blaming the Chinese virus and the monolithic Chinese state on the other, that's 50-50 at best.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:21 - Mar 19 with 1649 viewsmonytowbray

The elephant in the room is on 08:51 - Mar 19 by bluelagos

Am very conflicted tbh.

Hate the idea of a police state (which seems to be were we are heading) but not keen on hundred's of thousands of old people dying needless deaths cos I can't change my social habits.


I'm also struggling with the idea of a police state but i accept right now it must happen.

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The elephant in the room is on 09:26 - Mar 19 with 1630 viewsBrixtonBlue

The elephant in the room is on 09:06 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

You know and I know that people died because of Austerity and the harsh welfare state environment*. But it has not been that well publicised and the links were insufficiently direct that it could not be challenged by those so inclined.

In this case, the death rates are obvious, clearly linked to policy and liable to be on a much larger scale. Rather than people hearing a few reports of suicides, most people would actually know someone who had died - often an elderly relative.


* I know personally one of the journalists who first pursued it.


Yeah but the government and their media will blame it on the virus, Boris will chant "Get Covid Done" and the public will lap it up.

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
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The elephant in the room is on 09:40 - Mar 19 with 1588 viewsGuthrum

The elephant in the room is on 09:26 - Mar 19 by BrixtonBlue

Yeah but the government and their media will blame it on the virus, Boris will chant "Get Covid Done" and the public will lap it up.


I notice he's dropped that particular slogan quite quickly (tho it was used a few times early on).

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The elephant in the room is on 09:42 - Mar 19 with 1575 viewsBrixtonBlue

The elephant in the room is on 09:40 - Mar 19 by Guthrum

I notice he's dropped that particular slogan quite quickly (tho it was used a few times early on).


You're kidding?! I was joking, I never actually heard him use it!

I bet Bloots will downarrow this.
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