| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:40 - Jun 4 with 3393 views | J2BLUE |
Got to be a bit careful with that site as they seem to be pushing the 'not that bad' angle quite hard. I don't think we can rule it out though based on the Diamond Princess. |  |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:44 - Jun 4 with 3385 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:40 - Jun 4 by J2BLUE |
Got to be a bit careful with that site as they seem to be pushing the 'not that bad' angle quite hard. I don't think we can rule it out though based on the Diamond Princess. |
Unherd is covered by all sections of the political spectrum.
The results came from the alternative SAGE that was set up by Dave King and lauded by most on here who are critical of the government. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 18:44]
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 19:42 - Jun 4 with 3309 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:44 - Jun 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Unherd is covered by all sections of the political spectrum.
The results came from the alternative SAGE that was set up by Dave King and lauded by most on here who are critical of the government. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 18:44]
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Freddie Sayers is the Executive Editor of UnHerd. He was previously Editor-in-Chief of YouGov, and founder of PoliticsHome. |  |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 22:07 - Jun 4 with 3163 views | Trequartista |
I thought we'd proven the other night that Sweden does not have the highest death rate under any measurement, and these stories appear to be trying to convince people lockdown is essential, when there is yet no conclusive proof either way. |  |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 22:23 - Jun 4 with 3126 views | sparks |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:44 - Jun 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Unherd is covered by all sections of the political spectrum.
The results came from the alternative SAGE that was set up by Dave King and lauded by most on here who are critical of the government. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 18:44]
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Every time I see a link there it seems too be on the edge of contrarianism or conspiracy nonsense.
The article doesn't make much sense. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:19 - Jun 4 with 3035 views | Trequartista |
If you put enough dependent variables in you can show almost anything.
Sweden has roughly 1/6th the population of the uk, the last 7 days of deaths that Sweden have recorded (May 24-31) are (17,23,16,19,14,11,12}. On the same days the uk had {136, 434, 414, 373, 226, 115, 111}
The latter figures are comprehensively more than 6 times the former. | |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:27 - Jun 4 with 3019 views | Trequartista |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:19 - Jun 4 by Trequartista |
If you put enough dependent variables in you can show almost anything.
Sweden has roughly 1/6th the population of the uk, the last 7 days of deaths that Sweden have recorded (May 24-31) are (17,23,16,19,14,11,12}. On the same days the uk had {136, 434, 414, 373, 226, 115, 111}
The latter figures are comprehensively more than 6 times the former. |
and if you move your conditional variables about you can draw different lines (image does not embed in post, but appears when you click the broken image icon)
personally i am in favour of lockdown, and think it was 2 weeks too late in London and Midlands, but i don't see conclusive proof either way [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 23:41]
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:31 - Jun 4 with 3001 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:19 - Jun 4 by Trequartista |
If you put enough dependent variables in you can show almost anything.
Sweden has roughly 1/6th the population of the uk, the last 7 days of deaths that Sweden have recorded (May 24-31) are (17,23,16,19,14,11,12}. On the same days the uk had {136, 434, 414, 373, 226, 115, 111}
The latter figures are comprehensively more than 6 times the former. |
I'm not a statistician but explain this.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=swe&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&area
Apparently it has been proven that Sweden does not have the highest death rate under any measurement. This appears to be a measurement. Just trying to point out that herd immunity is not what its cracked up to be. |  | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:40 - Jun 4 with 2974 views | Trequartista |
if you change the multi-conditional "new deaths (per million), by number of days since 0.1 average deaths (per million) first recorded" to a different set of conditions, you will get a different graph (see my example in a different reply).
I'm not at all saying that Sweden is much lower than other countries and has triumphed with its no lockdown policy, I am saying there is no conclusive evidence yet that lockdown has made any difference, even if in my personal opinion i think it does.
If it turns out it that lockdown made no difference, they will have a huge advantage in not having to face an economic crisis [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 23:41]
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:50 - Jun 4 with 2951 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:40 - Jun 4 by Trequartista |
if you change the multi-conditional "new deaths (per million), by number of days since 0.1 average deaths (per million) first recorded" to a different set of conditions, you will get a different graph (see my example in a different reply).
I'm not at all saying that Sweden is much lower than other countries and has triumphed with its no lockdown policy, I am saying there is no conclusive evidence yet that lockdown has made any difference, even if in my personal opinion i think it does.
If it turns out it that lockdown made no difference, they will have a huge advantage in not having to face an economic crisis [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 23:41]
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I had a look at inproportion2.talkigy.com and I see an agenda there while the Financial times does not appear to have one. I do however agree about the economic advantage but humanity would come first in my book. | | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:51 - Jun 4 with 2953 views | Trequartista |
Given the figures i quoted earlier in the thread for the last in week in May, even accounting for Sweden being 1 day ahead in "number of days since 0.1 average deaths", show the UK well above Sweden in deaths per capita, how do they have Sweden ahead of the UK?
wikipedia sources official figures,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
so where are these coming from?
example May 29 graph says 6 deaths per million in Sweden, but only 23 deaths were recorded for a population of 10.23 million. This is 2.2 deaths per million. OK it's a 7 day rolling average, but the last 7 days in May all have the same issue. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 0:00]
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:52 - Jun 4 with 2946 views | Trequartista |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:50 - Jun 4 by Eireannach_gorm |
I had a look at inproportion2.talkigy.com and I see an agenda there while the Financial times does not appear to have one. I do however agree about the economic advantage but humanity would come first in my book. |
i didn't balance humanity against economy, i said IF the lockdown turns out to have made no difference | |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 00:14 - Jun 5 with 2906 views | syntaxerror |
I think you are right - but that does not mean we should condemn the other 20% to horrible sickness or possible death.
Figures from around the world look like the death rate is about 0.013% of the population.
That's still a lot of people.
If we talk raw stats that still means millions dying before their time.
These are real people, not statistics. |  | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 00:58 - Jun 5 with 2841 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:51 - Jun 4 by Trequartista |
Given the figures i quoted earlier in the thread for the last in week in May, even accounting for Sweden being 1 day ahead in "number of days since 0.1 average deaths", show the UK well above Sweden in deaths per capita, how do they have Sweden ahead of the UK?
wikipedia sources official figures,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
so where are these coming from?
example May 29 graph says 6 deaths per million in Sweden, but only 23 deaths were recorded for a population of 10.23 million. This is 2.2 deaths per million. OK it's a 7 day rolling average, but the last 7 days in May all have the same issue. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 0:00]
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There was no comment on the article I linked to regarding Anders Tegnell, the architect of the Swedish strategy who expressed doubts regarding their approach to the pandemic. He acknowledged that too many people have died. | | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 07:07 - Jun 5 with 2717 views | gordon |
The most important thing about that article is that Karl Friston isn't an virologist or an epidemiologist. All he has is a somewhat shaky theory based on an interpretation of the data, a theory which isn't shared by experts as far as I'm aware.
The idea that 80% of the population is immune to Coronaviruses because of prior infections seems extremely unlikely to me, and the presence of T-cells won't confer immunity anyway, so the one piece of evidence referred to in the article, the paper on T-cells, doesn't provide much support for the theory. |  | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 07:15 - Jun 5 with 2706 views | gordon |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 23:51 - Jun 4 by Trequartista |
Given the figures i quoted earlier in the thread for the last in week in May, even accounting for Sweden being 1 day ahead in "number of days since 0.1 average deaths", show the UK well above Sweden in deaths per capita, how do they have Sweden ahead of the UK?
wikipedia sources official figures,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
so where are these coming from?
example May 29 graph says 6 deaths per million in Sweden, but only 23 deaths were recorded for a population of 10.23 million. This is 2.2 deaths per million. OK it's a 7 day rolling average, but the last 7 days in May all have the same issue. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 0:00]
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If you're interested in the effect of lockdowns, then comparing Sweden to the UK isn't that informative because the UK lockdown occurred so late, and the UK data will be high because the gov response here has been so haphazard.
Comparing Sweden to similar sized countries like Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Central European countries would likely be more useful. | | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 07:49 - Jun 5 with 2672 views | Libero |
That’s numberwang. |  | | |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 07:55 - Jun 5 with 2645 views | Steve_M |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 18:44 - Jun 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Unherd is covered by all sections of the political spectrum.
The results came from the alternative SAGE that was set up by Dave King and lauded by most on here who are critical of the government. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 18:44]
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It is but Freddie Sayers has been very vocal on the idea that covid-19 is not a significant threat.
I also think this is a massive danger signal, the last three months have seen all sorts of scientists make assumptions outside their fields.
"Professor Karl Friston, like Michael Levitt, is a statistician not a virologist"
That's not a criticism of you for sharing btw, just an indication that - globally - we just don't have enough data yet. It would be great if this turned out to be true though but not sure how that fits with the rapid spread of the disease around the world - that looks like it was far more easily spread. |  |
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 08:05 - Jun 5 with 2616 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 07:55 - Jun 5 by Steve_M |
It is but Freddie Sayers has been very vocal on the idea that covid-19 is not a significant threat.
I also think this is a massive danger signal, the last three months have seen all sorts of scientists make assumptions outside their fields.
"Professor Karl Friston, like Michael Levitt, is a statistician not a virologist"
That's not a criticism of you for sharing btw, just an indication that - globally - we just don't have enough data yet. It would be great if this turned out to be true though but not sure how that fits with the rapid spread of the disease around the world - that looks like it was far more easily spread. |
I just thought it was an interesting article worth putting out there for discussion.
The article quote’s Professor Karl Friston, who sits on the alternative SAGE, as being an expert in “understanding complex and dynamic biological processes by representing them in mathematical models. Within the neuroscience field he was ranked by Science magazine as the most influential in the world”
I’m not saying you are doing this, but I didn’t expect people to just put their hands over their ears and dismiss his research.
When we still know so little about Covid and why it has taken hold in some countries and not others, I think it’s important that scientists from all fields should apply their expertise in trying to understand it more. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 8:13]
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| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 08:18 - Jun 5 with 2591 views | Steve_M |
| Portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80% on 08:05 - Jun 5 by GlasgowBlue |
I just thought it was an interesting article worth putting out there for discussion.
The article quote’s Professor Karl Friston, who sits on the alternative SAGE, as being an expert in “understanding complex and dynamic biological processes by representing them in mathematical models. Within the neuroscience field he was ranked by Science magazine as the most influential in the world”
I’m not saying you are doing this, but I didn’t expect people to just put their hands over their ears and dismiss his research.
When we still know so little about Covid and why it has taken hold in some countries and not others, I think it’s important that scientists from all fields should apply their expertise in trying to understand it more. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 8:13]
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It's definitely worth sharing articles like this, it might be more helpful if the article didn't lead on the sensational 80% figure though. | |
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