| I’m going on the offensive with this one 14:54 - Jun 10 with 5698 views | Kropotkin123 |
So Paul Lambert thinks “we had a bad couple of months before we stopped and we have paid for that” and the supporters are meant to sit here and allow the club to rewrite the season.
No, we had an extremely fortunate start in which we played 11 games and got 27 from a possible 33. That was eight wins, three draws and zero losses. We scored 21 goals (third highest) and conceded just five (lowest). We had a GD of 16 (best) and were four points clear with a game in hand over second.
Since the 7th October 2019 we accumulated 25 points from 25 games. That puts us 19th in a division of 23 with just one point per game (ppg). Shrewsbury in 20th actually performed better in ppg (25 from 23). Tranmere in 22nd performed the same (23 from 23).
In fact, only Bolton (23 from 25) and Southend (15 from 24) performed worse on a ppg basis. That means we had relegation form over our past 25 games. We need to wake up to the fact that if we maintain our current management team relegation is currently a statistically backed likelihood.
Lee O’Neill said it was “disappointing... not get an opportunity to see out the season” as if he somehow hasn’t witnessed what we have produced since the beginning of October. It really is hard to under emphasise the disaster that followed our great start. But let me try and contextualize it for him.
We obtained two more points in our first 11 games than we did in our last 25. We scored 21 goals in our first 11 games and just 25 goals in our final 25 games. We conceded five goals in our first 11 games and 31 goals in our final 25 games.
This is not a “bad couple of months”. This is completely unforgivable and sustained poor performance over the majority of the season. The club needs to sufficiently explain this, as currently it has only been done with delusional comments.
Lambert thought that “we had to win about six of [our remaining] games to get into the play-offs” which is what we managed over the previous 25 games. This should bring into sharp focus what they were pinning their hopes on.
After this dreadful season’s campaign had ended we found out from O’Neill that “our target was to try and make the play-offs this year”. Excuse me? That should have been the bare minimum, as evidenced by the start of our campaign. If you aren’t targeting the top two as a relatively financially stable club, then you don’t have the correct winning mentality.
Sure, a reasonable and objective supporter would look at last season's relegation campaign and say they would accept failure at the play-off stage. But none can sanely say that this should have been our target. There should be repercussions for not achieving this.
What’s more, O’Neill has already said that “Paul and his staff are a part of the club’s plans going forward”. That’s right, there is no end of season assessment, nor reflection time and no consequence for finishing 11th in division three.
And the gall to use a word like “forward” after around two decades of going backwards. A significant reason for that is that we consistently appoint PR people, like O’Neill, who clearly know nothing about football, into positions that influence the direction of our club. It is a scandal that needs to be rectified.
In short, O'Neill and Lambert need to go. |  |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 09:06 - Jun 11 with 1294 views | itfcjoe |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 09:00 - Jun 11 by RobTheMonk |
So we finished 11th(?) and the only teams above us that we could beat were Steve Evans' Gillingham and a 1-0 win early in the season against Fleetwood...
We were top as we had a fortunate run where we played the likes of Rochdale, Wimbledon and Bolton.
There was talk of us having a half decent run in towards the end of the season. Taking into account we've played 1 more game than any one above us (othert than Sunderland), some cases 2, that we were beginning to stuggle against so-called lesser teams (Tranmere comes to mind) and it's no wonder people are not exactly enamoured with how things are going.
But hey ho, 5 year contract. If Lambert somehow pulls it roun then fair play, but from what I've seen from his tenure here, it's a mess. |
We did undoubtedly have an easy run in - 5 home games including Bolton, Southend and MK who had won 2 away games between them.
Looking at Sports Club Stats, the play offs were very unlikely though
6 wins and 2 defeats would have given us a 4% chance of 6th
6 wins and 2 draws 37% chance of top 6
7 wins and 1 defeat would have given us a 60% chance of top 6
So, when Lambert said we needed to win 6 out of 8 to have a chance and that we could have done it forgets that we have won only 6 of the last 25, and that the chance was very small even if we picked up 18 points from 8 games |  |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 10:18 - Jun 12 with 1192 views | Kropotkin123 |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 09:06 - Jun 11 by itfcjoe |
We did undoubtedly have an easy run in - 5 home games including Bolton, Southend and MK who had won 2 away games between them.
Looking at Sports Club Stats, the play offs were very unlikely though
6 wins and 2 defeats would have given us a 4% chance of 6th
6 wins and 2 draws 37% chance of top 6
7 wins and 1 defeat would have given us a 60% chance of top 6
So, when Lambert said we needed to win 6 out of 8 to have a chance and that we could have done it forgets that we have won only 6 of the last 25, and that the chance was very small even if we picked up 18 points from 8 games |
That's an excellent point well illustrated.
Additionally, Sunderland were in good form and the Peterborough chairman made the point that they had seven of the bottom nine to play in their remaining nine games. | |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 10:30 - Jun 12 with 1175 views | TJS |
I think we rode the inevitable 'bigger club in a lower division' wave for a couple of months when we were unbeaten and teams were probably showing us way too much respect.
Then we started losing games and they all realised if you got at us from the kick-off we were actually a pretty weak side. |  | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 11:31 - Jun 12 with 1159 views | itfc_bucks |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 19:50 - Jun 10 by itfcjoe |
The point per game for half a season is massive, especially the way goals totally dried up. I saw a statistician talk about 0s and 1s for goals scored and conceded, as that is what separates the good sides from the bad sides. Clean sheets generally involve a fair bit of luck so conceding 1 is still good.
Our defence held up fine, bar a couple of high profile poor games - Lincoln and Posh - te attack did not meet their end of the bargain.
I hope this is all known in house, and that the analysis doesn't just think everything is fine because we were top at one point in jan |
The defence was, at times, an absolute shambles, typified by Wycombe away.
Chambers got caught wrong side of their forward who crossed for his colleague to miss an open goal, with noted full back Gwion Edwards bloody nowhere.
They brought Akinfenwa on and 30 seconds later, we were fishing the ball out of the net, because he bullied the centre halves and then Norris went walkies. And not for the only time in that month!
That's not to say that the front line did well, far from it. Judge was a crushing disappointment and the loss/under use of any sort of creative or ball-carrying threat from the midfield was criminal.
Injuries played a part - just how much was Nors' groin an issue? A fit Teddy Bishop? A fit Emyr Huws?
Suspect Lambo has 3 months of the new season to show he's the man or he may well be at the jobcentre. In many ways, he's lucky he isn't already there. |  | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:20 - Jun 12 with 1123 views | itfcjoe |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 11:31 - Jun 12 by itfc_bucks |
The defence was, at times, an absolute shambles, typified by Wycombe away.
Chambers got caught wrong side of their forward who crossed for his colleague to miss an open goal, with noted full back Gwion Edwards bloody nowhere.
They brought Akinfenwa on and 30 seconds later, we were fishing the ball out of the net, because he bullied the centre halves and then Norris went walkies. And not for the only time in that month!
That's not to say that the front line did well, far from it. Judge was a crushing disappointment and the loss/under use of any sort of creative or ball-carrying threat from the midfield was criminal.
Injuries played a part - just how much was Nors' groin an issue? A fit Teddy Bishop? A fit Emyr Huws?
Suspect Lambo has 3 months of the new season to show he's the man or he may well be at the jobcentre. In many ways, he's lucky he isn't already there. |
Of course it was at times, it was a League 1 defence with no right back for the majority of the season - but on the whole it wasn't the issue.
Scoring goals was, and even really creating chances - even our good run at the start of the season was on the back of 1-0 wins.
If youy look at 0s and 1s
Defensively - we conceded 0 or 1 in 29 out of 36 games
Attacking - we scored 0 or 1 in 24 out of 36 games
Just 12 games where we've done enough to win, nowhere near good enough | |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:26 - Jun 12 with 1115 views | Swansea_Blue |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:20 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
Of course it was at times, it was a League 1 defence with no right back for the majority of the season - but on the whole it wasn't the issue.
Scoring goals was, and even really creating chances - even our good run at the start of the season was on the back of 1-0 wins.
If youy look at 0s and 1s
Defensively - we conceded 0 or 1 in 29 out of 36 games
Attacking - we scored 0 or 1 in 24 out of 36 games
Just 12 games where we've done enough to win, nowhere near good enough |
I haven't seen a massive amount, but from what I have seen we seemed incapable of building phases of play to move the ball up the pitch. All very scrappy, poor ball retention in the midfield, midfield not supporting the forward and isolating them, no great movement, little options to play through the lines to break teams down, etc. And inevitably after huffing and puffing for 20 minutes or so, started going long from the back.
Pretty grim tactically on the ball. Off the ball not quite so bad. |  |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:59 - Jun 12 with 1091 views | IpswichKnight |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:26 - Jun 12 by Swansea_Blue |
I haven't seen a massive amount, but from what I have seen we seemed incapable of building phases of play to move the ball up the pitch. All very scrappy, poor ball retention in the midfield, midfield not supporting the forward and isolating them, no great movement, little options to play through the lines to break teams down, etc. And inevitably after huffing and puffing for 20 minutes or so, started going long from the back.
Pretty grim tactically on the ball. Off the ball not quite so bad. |
This is the point our midfield created pretty much F all and scored pretty much F all. We do however have plenty of creativity in midfield if we are brave enough to go with a 3 like Dobra, El-Miz and Lankaster that does give us creativity and more importantly it gives us pace. We have at times ( Oxford away ) had ZERO pace in the team and were not passing around anyone we are soo one dimensional. | | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 15:00 - Jun 12 with 1092 views | itfcjoe |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:26 - Jun 12 by Swansea_Blue |
I haven't seen a massive amount, but from what I have seen we seemed incapable of building phases of play to move the ball up the pitch. All very scrappy, poor ball retention in the midfield, midfield not supporting the forward and isolating them, no great movement, little options to play through the lines to break teams down, etc. And inevitably after huffing and puffing for 20 minutes or so, started going long from the back.
Pretty grim tactically on the ball. Off the ball not quite so bad. |
Just very slow and laboured, plenty of possession but not in a position to hurt teams.
Very little movement up the pitch, very compressed centrally and midfielders not getting past strikers. Lack of bravery on the ball and too often responsibility falling to deeper players to try and make something happen from deep rather than further up ther pitch
Very safe in the final third, not hitting teams quickly when we have an advantage or overload | |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 15:08 - Jun 12 with 1072 views | itfc_bucks |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 14:59 - Jun 12 by IpswichKnight |
This is the point our midfield created pretty much F all and scored pretty much F all. We do however have plenty of creativity in midfield if we are brave enough to go with a 3 like Dobra, El-Miz and Lankaster that does give us creativity and more importantly it gives us pace. We have at times ( Oxford away ) had ZERO pace in the team and were not passing around anyone we are soo one dimensional. |
No way would any manager have gone with a trio of Dobra, El Miz and Lankaster. No experience there at all and no real ball-winner. I could foresee a line-up:
GK
KVY - Chambo - Wolfie - LB
Downes - Dozzer
Lankaster - Huws - Bish
Jackson
The front four you can move around as you like to include Norwood, Dobra, Sears, Edwards, El-Mizouni etc.
You also have Nydam coming back into the side, which will be a huge benefit. | | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 15:09 - Jun 12 with 1070 views | haynes_toe1 |
Great OP.
Don't really like doing the "told you so" thing online, it always feels a bit empty. But considering the stick I got at the time, I feel it's only fair to bring up our first game against Burton where I said we played too much long ball, had no real structure and were a little fortunate. I said at the time I didn't think we looked to have obvious quality in the league, and we never did show that in reality, despite what we had on paper. | | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 15:28 - Jun 12 with 1054 views | Meadowlark |
We never really played well when we were top, so it's fair to say that league was pretty shhht.
It was not surprising when we started dropping points. What was surprising for me was how many points we had accumulated in those first three months while playing so poorly! |  | | |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 16:30 - Jun 12 with 1029 views | Darth_Koont |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 15:28 - Jun 12 by Meadowlark |
We never really played well when we were top, so it's fair to say that league was pretty shhht.
It was not surprising when we started dropping points. What was surprising for me was how many points we had accumulated in those first three months while playing so poorly! |
We were playing on the break a bit more, sort of misfiring in posession otherwise and it seemed as if we had good individuals who were getting us across the line.
I remember posting how positive it was that we weren't playing well but still winning because a) we'd get better and b) League One opposition looked as if it was nothing to fear.
I was wrong. We didn't get better but the teams around us did as they developed a team and an approach. If anything we started to look more rudderless and incoherent. |  |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 16:42 - Jun 12 with 1017 views | itfcjoe |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 16:30 - Jun 12 by Darth_Koont |
We were playing on the break a bit more, sort of misfiring in posession otherwise and it seemed as if we had good individuals who were getting us across the line.
I remember posting how positive it was that we weren't playing well but still winning because a) we'd get better and b) League One opposition looked as if it was nothing to fear.
I was wrong. We didn't get better but the teams around us did as they developed a team and an approach. If anything we started to look more rudderless and incoherent. |
We did a lot of work on counter attacking in pre season, which always seemed a bit strange because teams were always going to sit in against us, especially after that start | |
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| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 19:34 - Jun 12 with 973 views | Darth_Koont |
| I’m going on the offensive with this one on 16:42 - Jun 12 by itfcjoe |
We did a lot of work on counter attacking in pre season, which always seemed a bit strange because teams were always going to sit in against us, especially after that start |
Interesting. Maybe in that respect Lambert got it right with the hangover of relegation meaning teams would come at us. Still not sure how he managed to make us such a poor unit after that good start points-wise and when teams realised we weren't all that as an attacking unit.
There's certainly a sense in the Championship that the very best teams pressured the opposition into losing games rather than going out and playing them off the park. That freedom seems to be what play-off teams can show along with the inconsistency that can come with making games more open. But promotion sides generally see winning game as simpler and less about playing well.
Our problem was that we never really seemed to settle on a simple approach (or team). I think that lack of focus on (and lack of single-minded belief in) what we were doing made us a bad team. [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 19:54]
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