Forum | Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results by Mullet

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results 12:03 - Aug 13 with 10822 views

My twitter timeline is full of A Level teachers with various levels of rage, upset and individual horror stories consoling each other. The bitterness and wrangling over this will no doubt increase once GCSEs come in next week.

I hope any parents/students out there today are not left too upset or resentful if the envelope wasn't what was predicted.

I've also just spotted this thread on the attainment gap which is useful too for showing why so many people are angry and / or resigned.

[Post edited 13 Aug 2020 12:07]

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 15:44 - Aug 13 with 4858 views

lowhouseblue

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 14:02 - Aug 13 by Steve_M
The overall picture wont matter a damn to individual students marked far below predicted grades or mocks for exams they were not able to take.

i see i got a down arrow from herbivore for saying that overall grades are up. it's undoubtedly a true statement.

so how much higher still should the grades be this year when compared with previous years? are the 2020 cohort 2% better than the 2019 cohort? or 14% better as in scotland? or even better still?

any solution in these circumstances is going to be imperfect. all exams systems involve individual upset. and designing a moderation system which seems to systematically favour independent schools with smaller class sizes is staggeringly stupid. but objecting when students don't just get the grade predicted by their teacher, with the implication of a massive overall rise in grades, is just a cop out and is actually pretty dishonest.

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

-3

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:00 - Aug 13 with 4824 views

Swansea_Blue

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 15:44 - Aug 13 by lowhouseblue

True, but the overall results are largely irrelevant to the issue. The problem seems to be a significant number of people are having their results downgraded when previously they'd had impeccable exam results, simply as a function of which type of school they go to.

So although the grades are slightly up overall, they are disproportionately up in the private schools (and 'other' whatever they are), while in the 6th form colleges and comps deserving students are getting relatively shat on through no fault of their own.

It seems to be an accident (or maybe not) of privilege.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:06 - Aug 13 with 4813 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 15:44 - Aug 13 by lowhouseblue

"it's undoubtedly a true statement." and one lacking nuance or acceptance of the implications of what that has done.

"so how much higher still should the grades be this year when compared with previous years?" This year's cohort were on paper projected to be higher. That is, as I understand it based on prior attainment and not just the last essay they wrote before lockdown. Can you show us how you level that with the numbers we have now?

"any solution in these circumstances is going to be imperfect" there is a gradient of imperfection and that is at the crux of today's results.

"but objecting when students don't just get the grade predicted by their teacher, with the implication of a massive overall rise in grades, is just a cop out and is actually pretty dishonest." Speaking of being actually pretty dishonest, how many of the complaints are just that alone would you say?

You seemed yesterday to ignore the issue of teacher assessment and how it has been used selectively here. We are seeing students penalised because of their postcode, their accent and the type of school they go to, the scale of that seems far too large to be dismissed.

Can you please explain why that is tolerable and something you seem happy to brush off today, as yesterday? I don't understand your position at all.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:08 - Aug 13 with 4802 views

Mullet

This has just been shared my way for any students / parents who have a vested interest in appeals etc. It is at least interesting reading once more.

https://www.statewatch.org/news/2020/august/uk-legal-action-threatened-over-algo

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:29 - Aug 13 with 4772 views

longtimefan

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:08 - Aug 13 by Mullet
This has just been shared my way for any students / parents who have a vested interest in appeals etc. It is at least interesting reading once more. https://www.statewatch.org/news/2020/august/uk-legal-action-threatened-over-algo

Surely the bit about grades for schools with more than 15 students in a subject not using teacher's predicted grades at all and being based purely on the previous school record must be wrong? If that's the case then someone with a predicted A could get a D and vice versa.

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:39 - Aug 13 with 4756 views

SouthBucksBlue

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:06 - Aug 13 by Mullet

Miss SBB has had a blanket reduction in all A level grades.
Her school although a grammar school is still state funded but not in an underprivileged catchment area.
The school has been very communicative during the ‘Centre Assessment’ process and I would say if anything been over conscientious in not over estimating grades. These grades have all been reduced in the Actual results.
Example Subject1:
Mock A (GCSE was A*), ALIS A, UCAS B, CAG B, Actual C.
The result is that an expectation of A*AB has become CCD.
So this isn’t just happening to the disadvantaged as some are claiming.

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:16 - Aug 13 with 4726 views

Steve_M

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 15:44 - Aug 13 by lowhouseblue

A methodology that has discriminated against over-performing students from schools that generally under-perform or in courses with a large number of students is deeply problematic.

I've seen one anecdote of a student downgraded from A to C in Maths but awarded an A in Further Maths.

It's not about the overall scores, it's that in standardising scores there are some grave injustices that will affect university and career propects.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:16 - Aug 13 with 4727 views

cbower

As it happens, my daughter seems to have done well out of this, probably better than if she had sat exams. Will have to see how my boy (hard worker but struggles) does next week at GCSE along with my own students in German and French. The lack of trust in and respect for our professional judgement is astonishing. They have had grades for months. Surely analysis could have pointed to schools with gross over inflation and they should have been rigorously checked for the evidence they used to arrive at their predictions. The algorithm probably has some merit across a whole school but we are talking about individual students here, not whole cohorts. The mock exam thing is sheer nonsense and shows no comprehension of educational reality. The Scots got it wrong but their solution placed trust back in the hands of the profession. In March, Boris should have addressed the profession, placed his trust in us and made it clear where they believed grades to be significantly inflated, an evidence based investigative process would be deployed. For God's sake, they have had so much time to get this right. The public actually voted these idiots in - truly amazes me!

bluescouser

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:32 - Aug 13 with 4710 views

Ewan_Oozami

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:29 - Aug 13 by longtimefan
Surely the bit about grades for schools with more than 15 students in a subject not using teacher's predicted grades at all and being based purely on the previous school record must be wrong? If that's the case then someone with a predicted A could get a D and vice versa.

And indeed that is what has happened in some cases...

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:58 - Aug 13 with 4688 views

longtimefan

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:32 - Aug 13 by Ewan_Oozami
And indeed that is what has happened in some cases...

So what criteria are they using for individual results if not the teachers predicted grade in addition to the standardisation algorithm?

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:12 - Aug 13 with 4669 views

Ewan_Oozami

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:58 - Aug 13 by longtimefan
So what criteria are they using for individual results if not the teachers predicted grade in addition to the standardisation algorithm?

When you say individual results do you mean per student or per subject? Beacuse as I understand it they use subject grades based on the school's historic performance in that subject, so a student can still get a good grade in a subject in which the school has historically done well, but a bad grade where it hasn't - even though that individual student was on track to get a higher grade than that historical level...

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:29 - Aug 13 with 4651 views

longtimefan

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:12 - Aug 13 by Ewan_Oozami

I'm saying if they aren't using the teachers predictions for subjects with 15 or more pupils at a school at all, as claimed in the legal case document, how are individual pupil grades decided for that subject? I can understand some level of moderation of teacher predicted marks on a per school basis based on historical performance (by no means perfect though and undoubtedly creates unfair cases) but if that's not done using the predicted scores as the basis point for moderation (as suggested) then how have the marks for individual been assigned. A random number generator?

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:55 - Aug 13 with 4635 views

Ewan_Oozami

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:29 - Aug 13 by longtimefan

I think given the thought you have put into this (and it does it appear to be considerable), I suspect you're more than capable of reverse engineering the algorithm that led to such results - bearing in mind it is all based on a normal distribution curve (Mullet can offer more specifics I suspect) and how it gets either stretched or shifted right or left depending on the grade boundaries and number of students getting which grades. Don't forget, historical results have already been subject to normalising - so even that historical data is not strictly accurate.

So, if a school historically has a historic average of C in a subject, but this year it is B/C using teacher assessments, then those results have to be shifted back half a grade - the kicker is, there are only so many Grade A B C Ds etc that can be awarded and shifting the curve means there are less A and Bs available - so once you have filled up all the As you can only give out Bs and once the Bs are full, only Cs and all the way back down the grades -so if you were on for a better grade then the average, but so were many more students, there's a greater chance of the algorithm downgrading you.

Edit: And the less pupils you have in the cohort, the more likely this is to happen, hence low cohort schools being exempt - so the Government probably knew this was going to happen and the Scottish education system picked up on this which is why it's looking at their results again...

[Post edited 13 Aug 2020 18:57]

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 19:47 - Aug 13 with 4608 views

lowhouseblue

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:06 - Aug 13 by Mullet

their accent? really?

teacher predictions alone would give a huge and unjustified rise in grades. given the number that have been reduced by moderation, and that we still have a significant rise in grades overall, shows that teachers very significantly over-inflated their predictions.

The media coverage today is very much focusing on the injustice of people not getting the grade their schools predicted. but you accept the need for moderation so that, by itself, must be a false criticism.

the point i am making is what form of alternative moderation - and we all accept the need for moderation - would have been both practical and better. in my first post i agreed entirely that using class size as a factor in weighting school predictions is stupid and a huge error.

what i think is completely tolerable is that teacher predictions had to be moderated. why did schools so over egg their grades?

-1

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 20:13 - Aug 13 with 4591 views

azuremerlangus

The bigger question to all of this is why didn't the exams happen in the first place?

As I understand it all the syllabus had been covered before lock-down, it was therefore just a matter of getting organised at 2 metre social distancing to get them completed.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 21:26 - Aug 13 with 4561 views

Ewan_Oozami

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 19:47 - Aug 13 by lowhouseblue

We don't know for sure that teachers very significantly over-inflated their predictions, as nobody actually took their exams..

The issue is mainly around the appeals process - which schools have to pay for, by the way - so they pay to offer the exams, pay to have them marked, and then pay if they have to appeal - of which there will be a lot more this year - this appeals process could have happened quite along way back, as schools had provided their predictions months ago, that means that students could have appealed their grades produced by the algorithm and then know whether they had their uni place or not and needed to use clearing (as happens every year)

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 21:33 - Aug 13 with 4556 views

Plums

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 20:13 - Aug 13 by azuremerlangus
The bigger question to all of this is why didn't the exams happen in the first place? As I understand it all the syllabus had been covered before lock-down, it was therefore just a matter of getting organised at 2 metre social distancing to get them completed.

Because as with everything this bunch of chancers do, they pontificate first and then think about the outcome. The exams should have been kept on track until they had a clear plan of assessment. They were cancelled with no plan in mind whatsoever.
Sounds very similar to another national crisis that the same people instigated four years ago.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 08:48 - Aug 14 with 4496 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 16:39 - Aug 13 by SouthBucksBlue

That’s appalling, I’m really sorry to hear that and you’re right there’s broad brush stuff going on but it’s the individual stories which are coming out are horrific in some cases.

I did see a grammar school in Wolverhampton had a similar story. Which begs the question where these rises have gone? If the reductions are so prevalent at the bottom and middle of the system....

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 08:55 - Aug 14 with 4490 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 19:47 - Aug 13 by lowhouseblue

You’re essentially just repeating yourself here.

And yeah, I stand by the accent the comment it was becoming increasingly obvious during the day more and more regional and lower class schools were suffering cases of brilliant students being penalised for the sins of their predecessors. What was the reduction rate like at the very elite end of Harrow and the like out of interest? Is it logical in the scope of a system you claim is simply teachers overinflating grades and getting slapped for it?

You seem to agree with that but aren’t bothered about the unfairness at all. As per 2-3 days ago, they changed the system, they sat on what they had and did nothing to target schools chancing their arm. You’ve essentially added nothing more since, but keep sniping at people on here it’s a totally bizarre position to take.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 08:56 - Aug 14 with 4489 views

Herbivore

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 08:55 - Aug 14 by Mullet

Lowie gets very triggered by any criticism of the government's approach to anything these days.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:02 - Aug 14 with 4480 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 17:16 - Aug 13 by cbower

Congratulations to your daughter.

I’m braced for a kicking next week, I had some interesting video calls in the run up put it that way. But we are truly in the realm of the unknown. I’ve got two kids who deserve 9’s in one subject but will miss out judging by the way in which things are going. We have a lot of EAL and the stereotypical “white British boys” that will vulnerable to the methods.

“Boris should have addressed the profession” he has done that throughout, mostly by telling the papers the good news first then letting us sort it out eh?

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:02 - Aug 14 with 4478 views

longtimefan

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 18:55 - Aug 13 by Ewan_Oozami

[Post edited 13 Aug 2020 18:57]

Sorry I think we are miss purposes. I understand the concept of the standardisation method shifting grades. What I was simply questioning was the statement in the legal document linked by Mullet, that Teacher predictions were not used in the assessment of grades at all, “Where a subject has more than 15 entries in a school, teachers’ predicted grades will not be used as part of the final grade calculation.” As I understand it they are the basic input to the process with the standardisation being applied to them. If they are not used then on what basis are the students ranked within a school is my question.

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:03 - Aug 14 with 4477 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 08:56 - Aug 14 by Herbivore
Lowie gets very triggered by any criticism of the government's approach to anything these days.

He has plenty of questions I note, thinner on the answers it seems.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:14 - Aug 14 with 4465 views

Mullet

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:02 - Aug 14 by longtimefan

This is a fairly basic overview https://inews.co.uk/news/education/a-level-grade-calculated-how-2020-results-exa

The way it seems to be easiest to think about it is the are a fixed amount of entries - the government and Ofqual have decided that each grade can only have a fixed % of students getting them.

Therefore even thought this was a strong cohort, there are only a fixed amount of top grades available to them and they have taken a mix of predictions, mocks (which weren’t done uniformly across the country at all so are pretty useless as a national comparison) and the school’s history.

This means that students are essentially being given grades based on factors mostly out of their control or hinging on their performance at different stages of their school career to others. The big issue with mocks is what if a teacher marks them incredibly harshly to gee up one student but is more lenient to help another not give up? That happens all the time etc.

Likewise staff turnover in FE’s alone is massive some students can have 2 or more teachers in their A Level cycle, let alone using historical data compared to a nice 6th form where staff don’t move on for decades.

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Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:30 - Aug 14 with 4454 views

longtimefan

Here's some data with a small explanation on the A Level results on 09:14 - Aug 14 by Mullet

OK - thank you. So you're saying the answer to my question appears to be that they are using Mock results and performance at other stages to rank the students rather than the teacher predictions.

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