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Trump falls further in poll 13:59 - Oct 4 with 1556 viewsHARRY10

This from the Telegraph - 4 October 2020 • 1:44pm

'Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate in the US election, has extended his lead over Donald Trump in new poll following the President's admission to hospital.

The poll found that 51 per cent were backing Biden, while 41 per cent said they were voting for Trump.

Mr Biden's 10-point edge over the sitting President is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks.

Almost two thirds Americans were also found to agree that "if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected."

Only 34 per cent said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55 per cent said that he was not and 11 per cent were unsure.'
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:02 - Oct 4 with 879 viewsgtsb1966

I was wondering if Trump would get the sympathy vote over this. Obviously not.
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:03 - Oct 4 with 879 viewsBlueBadger

StOp YoUr HeArTlEsS gLoAtInG yOu FiLtHy LeFtY tHe MaN iS iLl
[Post edited 4 Oct 14:05]

FOPRP.
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:05 - Oct 4 with 868 viewshampstead_blue

What did the poles say last time?

Is there not a population of Trump voters who don't publically declare for him?

I feel it might be tighter if that is the case.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:10 - Oct 4 with 851 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 14:02 - Oct 4 by gtsb1966

I was wondering if Trump would get the sympathy vote over this. Obviously not.


I think with over 200,000 dead and rising, a large percentage of previous Trump voters actually have a loved one who has died. When Trump is on tv calling it a hoax, or no big deal, or that it'll be honest by April, then summer, then there will be a vaccine by election day it must be hard to reconcile what you know with what you hear him say.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:13 - Oct 4 with 849 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:05 - Oct 4 by hampstead_blue

What did the poles say last time?

Is there not a population of Trump voters who don't publically declare for him?

I feel it might be tighter if that is the case.


The poles ?

The opinion polls had Hilary Clinton ahead by one or two points, not 10 as now. they also pointed towards a narrowing over the months leading up to the election - not a widening as now.

The 2018 midterm election polls were similarly accurate.

Trumps best hope now is to leg it to somewhere like Russia to escape the inevitable trial he is facing over his corrupt behaviour over the past few decades
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:14 - Oct 4 with 848 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 14:05 - Oct 4 by hampstead_blue

What did the poles say last time?

Is there not a population of Trump voters who don't publically declare for him?

I feel it might be tighter if that is the case.


A lot of people wanted to screw the system last time round and stupidly thought Trump was the guy to drain the swamp and all that horse shît. This time round they know what he has to offer.

Your average Trump supporter isn't shy about telling you their love for him. I'd say a silent voter block for Biden from the progressive left is just as likely.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:17 - Oct 4 with 830 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:03 - Oct 4 by BlueBadger

StOp YoUr HeArTlEsS gLoAtInG yOu FiLtHy LeFtY tHe MaN iS iLl
[Post edited 4 Oct 14:05]


To paraphrase Bush

the Germans don't have a word for schadenfreude
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:26 - Oct 4 with 829 viewsTrequartista

In the last few years we've had opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump.

Let's just keep the powder dry and see the results before getting excited about guesswork relying on people doing what they say they will do.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:30 - Oct 4 with 797 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 14:26 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

In the last few years we've had opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump.

Let's just keep the powder dry and see the results before getting excited about guesswork relying on people doing what they say they will do.


I'm sure you have your fingers crossed.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:34 - Oct 4 with 775 viewsRyorry

Trump falls further in poll on 14:26 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

In the last few years we've had opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump.

Let's just keep the powder dry and see the results before getting excited about guesswork relying on people doing what they say they will do.


Mmm, probably wise. Wouldn't want to tempt fate - or allow voters to become complacent - not that many eligible to vote are on here of course.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:36 - Oct 4 with 772 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:26 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

In the last few years we've had opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump.

Let's just keep the powder dry and see the results before getting excited about guesswork relying on people doing what they say they will do.


What you have stated is incorrect.

We have had polls that have pretty much been spot on, right across the board. Peddling misinformation will not change that either.

As you can see below the current average of all the polls over the past few months have shown Biden to be winning enough seats to take control of the lower house.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

What this map also shows is that if Trump were to win ALL the 'close' states he would still lose, As someone who has watched this sort of stuff. I can assure you that when the polls remain this static they turn out to be spot on.

Unfortunately for Trump some of those close states, which had him a head by a few points (within the margin of error), now have him losing by a few points ..... Florida.

Put bluntly, if your horse is a few lengths behind in the furlong you need it to be gaining, not falling further behind
[Post edited 4 Oct 14:40]
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:43 - Oct 4 with 755 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:34 - Oct 4 by Ryorry

Mmm, probably wise. Wouldn't want to tempt fate - or allow voters to become complacent - not that many eligible to vote are on here of course.


Tempt fate ?

Commenting on current polling is widespread, and if your words above had any meaning then the current commenting in the US would have caused the democratic vote to have fallen, not risen.
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:44 - Oct 4 with 750 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 14:36 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

What you have stated is incorrect.

We have had polls that have pretty much been spot on, right across the board. Peddling misinformation will not change that either.

As you can see below the current average of all the polls over the past few months have shown Biden to be winning enough seats to take control of the lower house.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

What this map also shows is that if Trump were to win ALL the 'close' states he would still lose, As someone who has watched this sort of stuff. I can assure you that when the polls remain this static they turn out to be spot on.

Unfortunately for Trump some of those close states, which had him a head by a few points (within the margin of error), now have him losing by a few points ..... Florida.

Put bluntly, if your horse is a few lengths behind in the furlong you need it to be gaining, not falling further behind
[Post edited 4 Oct 14:40]


Which statement was incorrect?

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:44 - Oct 4 with 744 viewsRyorry

Trump falls further in poll on 14:36 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

What you have stated is incorrect.

We have had polls that have pretty much been spot on, right across the board. Peddling misinformation will not change that either.

As you can see below the current average of all the polls over the past few months have shown Biden to be winning enough seats to take control of the lower house.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

What this map also shows is that if Trump were to win ALL the 'close' states he would still lose, As someone who has watched this sort of stuff. I can assure you that when the polls remain this static they turn out to be spot on.

Unfortunately for Trump some of those close states, which had him a head by a few points (within the margin of error), now have him losing by a few points ..... Florida.

Put bluntly, if your horse is a few lengths behind in the furlong you need it to be gaining, not falling further behind
[Post edited 4 Oct 14:40]


I think many of us have learned to expect the unexpected, but I hope you're right Harry 👍

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:48 - Oct 4 with 743 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:44 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

Which statement was incorrect?


your post
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:52 - Oct 4 with 719 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:44 - Oct 4 by Ryorry

I think many of us have learned to expect the unexpected, but I hope you're right Harry 👍


I am right, on the basis that I am stating what is fact

ie current polls, and how previous polls have matched the results

I would even go as far as to say the horse racing analysis is 'right' - the election is now less than a month away and far from gaining ground, Trump is falling further behind (as stated by the polls)
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Trump falls further in poll on 14:54 - Oct 4 with 712 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 14:48 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

your post


I can see this is going to be like pulling teeth so we'll leave it there i guess.

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Trump falls further in poll on 14:58 - Oct 4 with 702 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:54 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

I can see this is going to be like pulling teeth so we'll leave it there i guess.


With no evidence to back your claims
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Trump falls further in poll on 15:00 - Oct 4 with 702 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 14:54 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

I can see this is going to be like pulling teeth so we'll leave it there i guess.


Always best to flee when you've had your pants pulled down. Damage control dear boy.

Genuine insight trumps pub knowledge, if you pardon the pun.

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Trump falls further in poll on 15:01 - Oct 4 with 697 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 14:58 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

With no evidence to back your claims


I thought it was widely acknowledged but I will go and dig them out.

The first one is here though

US election megathread by Trequartista 23 Sep 14:17
I wouldn’t get too excited ...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


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Trump falls further in poll on 15:07 - Oct 4 with 677 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 14:58 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

With no evidence to back your claims


Here is the 2017 result polling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_genera

I believe we are a month away from the US election, look at the polling a month away from the 2017 UK election and compare it with the result.

Even the majority of the polls in the run-up to the result are wrong.

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Trump falls further in poll on 15:07 - Oct 4 with 680 viewsBlueBadger

Trump falls further in poll on 15:01 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

I thought it was widely acknowledged but I will go and dig them out.

The first one is here though

US election megathread by Trequartista 23 Sep 14:17
I wouldn’t get too excited ...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/



The one which Stokie very kindly debunked for you?

US election megathread by StokieBlue 23 Sep 9:56
Nate Silver has long been seen as a good modeler and as you say, his website 538 is a really excellent read.

For those interested I recommend reading the papers on the modelling methodology and how various different scenarios are taken into account. It's a good read:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/

SB

[Post edited 4 Oct 15:07]

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Trump falls further in poll on 15:11 - Oct 4 with 669 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 15:07 - Oct 4 by BlueBadger

The one which Stokie very kindly debunked for you?

US election megathread by StokieBlue 23 Sep 9:56
Nate Silver has long been seen as a good modeler and as you say, his website 538 is a really excellent read.

For those interested I recommend reading the papers on the modelling methodology and how various different scenarios are taken into account. It's a good read:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/

SB

[Post edited 4 Oct 15:07]


Strange definition of debunked - StokieBlue said they'd changed the modelling since 2016. So that doesn't make 2016 correct then does it?

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Trump falls further in poll on 15:14 - Oct 4 with 651 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 14:58 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

With no evidence to back your claims


Should i continue or is that enough?

2015 polling absolutely neck-and-neck - result, overall majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_genera
[Post edited 4 Oct 15:16]

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Trump falls further in poll on 15:16 - Oct 4 with 644 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 14:26 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

In the last few years we've had opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump.

Let's just keep the powder dry and see the results before getting excited about guesswork relying on people doing what they say they will do.


"opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump. "

as stated none of those supposed polls were published so close to the vore as now

nor were they based on a fairly consistent and prolonged period

they also do not reflect any longer term trend

I could claim that polls putting Labour 25 points behind in the 2017 election show how polls are wrong - if I did not then show the following polls up to the election itself

so to clarify, the US polls have shown Biden consistently ahead in the overall poll for months, have shown a gradual widening of that lead in recent weeks and have also shown that in the marginal states there has been a consistent, if small, move away from Trump to Biden

those three qualifications are enough to suggest that Biden will win comfortably

however do note the word suggest
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