Forum | So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... by OhDavidMcgoldrick

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... 17:08 - Feb 14 with 1064 views

My maths tells me that in 12 weeks time these would have all received 2nd doses and 3 weeks after will experience a mostly high level of immunity. This puts us at the end of May.

Potential for June to see the beginning of the mass reduction in hospitalizations and deaths?

Or am I being too optimistic/negative?

[Post edited 14 Feb 2021 17:09]

Poll:

Should Lambert be sacked today?

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:13 - Feb 14 with 1029 views

chrismakin

It's already beginning to have an effect, at the Hospice, we're now back to only having upstairs ward open, no longer any overflows from the local hospital and downstairs is completely free for other useage

The timeline of coming out of lockdown has to be done properly, I appreciate schools are first, of course. But I would then if I were in charge, i'd look at the data from the schools before penciling in any further changes

however, as we know schools back on 8th, Pub gardens are now opening in April, so once again the Government are running before they walk

We understand it takes about 4 weeks to gather a good amount of data

So i'd bring out each different sector depending on the data and don't give any timelines as this puts the pressure on

Have a look at the data in April and if schools haven't caused a rise, then trial the pub gardens, after 4 weeks, if that hasn't increased anything, open up non essential.
Then again 4 weeks later, if that hasn't had any negative effects, open up internal pub gatherings/restaurants

For me its better to slowly open rather than panic into opening the economy with the risks of again having to lockdown again

[Post edited 14 Feb 2021 17:18]

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:14 - Feb 14 with 1018 views

Sarge

I think the bulk of protection comes from the first dose so potential to see marked decreases in hospitalisations and deaths fairly soon I’d say.

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:14 - Feb 14 with 1013 views

WD19

Given that one dose seems to have a pretty significant impact on hospitalisation and death, I would say that you are certainly not being optimistic.

When coupled with lockdown it could be that the number of new hospitalisations is through the floor by early March.

The challenge then will be maintaining any kind of lockdown discipline. Once this peak is demonstrably ‘over’ then many ppl will consider the pandemic done.

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:16 - Feb 14 with 991 views

BlueBadger

Locally, I'm seeing a reduction in the numbers of over-70's we're seeing in hospital with covid, but our ITUs and wards are still pretty brisk, right now.
That said, this time round, our sickest have generally been younger and nominally 'fitter'.
The mid-30's to mid-60's(again, mostly big blokes) as opposed to the late 40's to mid-70's) we were seeing last time round.

We'll probably get another spike in April if the government proceed with their insane plan to do a 'big bang' opening of schools.

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:17 - Feb 14 with 988 views

Churchman

I would have thought that in theory the impact will be sooner than that as the first dose is meant to give a significant level of protection after 3 weeks.

Given lockdown and other factors the actual true impact and when, if there is any, will I think be quite difficult to work out (by age band?), but something the specialist statisticians will no doubt enjoy working out!

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:18 - Feb 14 with 981 views

BlueBadger

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:13 - Feb 14 by chrismakin

[Post edited 14 Feb 2021 17:18]

All kids back at school at once is insane. The most educationally vulnerable groups, which to my inexpert eyes would appear to be exam year kids and years 1-2 should be first in, with the rest being 'on rotation' in order to make physical space in buildings.

How feasible that is with staffing, though, I have no idea.

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Poll:	What will Phil's first headline be tomorrow?
Blog:	From Despair to Where?

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:21 - Feb 14 with 962 views

chrismakin

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:18 - Feb 14 by BlueBadger
All kids back at school at once is insane. The most educationally vulnerable groups, which to my inexpert eyes would appear to be exam year kids and years 1-2 should be first in, with the rest being 'on rotation' in order to make physical space in buildings. How feasible that is with staffing, though, I have no idea.

I was suprised, there were talks of staggered classes etc, but my sons school are under the impression it's just a complete reopening.

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:27 - Feb 14 with 935 views

pistonbroke

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:16 - Feb 14 by BlueBadger

Schools should wait till after Easter , what’s the point in sending them back for 2 weeks then have Easter holidays

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:36 - Feb 14 with 912 views

BlueBadger

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:21 - Feb 14 by chrismakin
I was suprised, there were talks of staggered classes etc, but my sons school are under the impression it's just a complete reopening.

Yep. This is what our irresponsible and incompetent government are genuinely contemplating.

Thanks to the efforts of a few dozen far-right loons.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-considering-reopening-schools-on

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:41 - Feb 14 with 892 views

chrismakin

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:36 - Feb 14 by BlueBadger
Yep. This is what our irresponsible and incompetent government are genuinely contemplating. Thanks to the efforts of a few dozen far-right loons. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-considering-reopening-schools-on

That's shocking

I supposed Boris knows what he's doing, he's been sound during the pandemic lol

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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:42 - Feb 14 with 887 views

BlueBadger

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:27 - Feb 14 by pistonbroke
Schools should wait till after Easter , what’s the point in sending them back for 2 weeks then have Easter holidays

Because, if kids ae school, they can then say to parents, 'go back to work you idle bastards'.

	I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Poll:	What will Phil's first headline be tomorrow?
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So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:42 - Feb 14 with 880 views

BlueBadger

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:41 - Feb 14 by chrismakin
That's shocking I supposed Boris knows what he's doing, he's been sound during the pandemic lol

BoRiS iS dOiNg HiS bEsT

	I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Poll:	What will Phil's first headline be tomorrow?
Blog:	From Despair to Where?

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:48 - Feb 14 with 851 views

EdwardStone

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 17:42 - Feb 14 by BlueBadger
BoRiS iS dOiNg HiS bEsT

Sadly, his best is utterly inadequate

So with 15 million of the most vulnerable now vaccinated... on 20:37 - Feb 14 with 688 views

ElderGrizzly

Good thread on it here

First, there is a trade off between level of infection in the population and risk reduction through vaccination. Disease outcomes (e.g. hospitalisations/deaths) can broken down into the following: new infections x average-risk-per-infection... 2/
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) February 14, 2021

Second, vaccination won't necessarily reduce risk of severe outcomes by 100% if infected â€“ we all hope effectiveness is high, of course, but it's still unclear exactly what the level of protection will be several months down the line. 4/
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) February 14, 2021

When discussing potential impact of vaccines, important to remember just how much control measures are current reducing infection, and that recent hospitalisations/deaths only reflect fraction of people potentially at risk of that outcome if infection levels were much higher. 5/5
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) February 14, 2021

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