| Defeating Putin 11:26 - Mar 3 with 2641 views | Churchman |
There is an interesting article in The Guardian today about who Putin is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/03/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war
It’s worth a read, not least as an opinion on how Putin sees oligarchs and the west and how far he might go.
The big question is after Ukraine is swallowed, what does the west do next. Is there an appetite to get rid of Putin with all the cost that will entail? Given the past, will the west not prefer it all to go away quietly, as it’s done with so many things in the past 20 years? Looking at the likes of Johnson, a man with no substance whatsoever and a graveyard’s worth of skeletons in the cupboard, I think it’s a real possibility.
The big question is will Putin crack on to the next bit of territory he believes is his or will he wait a while? He’s 69 so time is not on his side, but I think he will wait a bit until western gas and oil money rebuilds his military and the next targets are destabilised inside out to provide a reason. |  | | |  |
| Defeating Putin on 11:39 - Mar 3 with 2575 views | homer_123 |
As Sun Tzu put it - you need to leave a Golden Bridge for your enemies to retreat through.
At the moment, I see no such bridge being offered to Putin.
That said - nothing Putin has done so far suggests there is any inclination to stop his advance in the Ukraine.
What the current situation shows, sadly, is the cold hard reality that it is very difficult to stop nations such as Russia, China or the US if they decide to expand their territory. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he'll be more than happy to settle, re-group and go again.
Again, sanctions at the moment are having no effect on Russia and I remain convinced they won't. For sanctions to truly work in this situation, you need all other countries to support them. At the moment, this is not happening. Until China gets involved, even if not publicly, Russia has an out.
The West is somewhat powerless here, for the all the support in terms of arms etc. it's all too late. |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 11:55 - Mar 3 with 2510 views | Steve_M |
For more on who Putin is, Masha Gessen's 'The Man without a Face' is very good.
I thought this was the key part of that article though:
"The western sanctions need to target the people who actually enable Putin’s actions: his entire senior security and administrative apparatus. Not just the few dozen people already targeted, but the thousands of second-tier officials in the presidential administration, the military and the security services. These people are not billionaires, but all are multimillionaires, with much to lose. Ruin the lives of these several thousand people, and let them judge who is to blame..... Make the cost a real one, a personal one, and let them see if it is worth the price to maintain a deranged, power-hungry tsar on his throne. Let them decide if they want to follow him into the abyss." |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 11:59 - Mar 3 with 2475 views | Steve_M |
| Defeating Putin on 11:55 - Mar 3 by Steve_M |
For more on who Putin is, Masha Gessen's 'The Man without a Face' is very good.
I thought this was the key part of that article though:
"The western sanctions need to target the people who actually enable Putin’s actions: his entire senior security and administrative apparatus. Not just the few dozen people already targeted, but the thousands of second-tier officials in the presidential administration, the military and the security services. These people are not billionaires, but all are multimillionaires, with much to lose. Ruin the lives of these several thousand people, and let them judge who is to blame..... Make the cost a real one, a personal one, and let them see if it is worth the price to maintain a deranged, power-hungry tsar on his throne. Let them decide if they want to follow him into the abyss." |
And then there's this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/oligarchs-under-eu-and-us-sanction
The UK government still reluctant to penalise oligarchs and those who help launder dubious money in London. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 12:06 - Mar 3 with 2434 views | Guthrum |
| Defeating Putin on 11:39 - Mar 3 by homer_123 |
As Sun Tzu put it - you need to leave a Golden Bridge for your enemies to retreat through.
At the moment, I see no such bridge being offered to Putin.
That said - nothing Putin has done so far suggests there is any inclination to stop his advance in the Ukraine.
What the current situation shows, sadly, is the cold hard reality that it is very difficult to stop nations such as Russia, China or the US if they decide to expand their territory. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he'll be more than happy to settle, re-group and go again.
Again, sanctions at the moment are having no effect on Russia and I remain convinced they won't. For sanctions to truly work in this situation, you need all other countries to support them. At the moment, this is not happening. Until China gets involved, even if not publicly, Russia has an out.
The West is somewhat powerless here, for the all the support in terms of arms etc. it's all too late. |
Absolutely. If there is no way out, there is also no incentive for an enemy to retreat. They have to just stand and fight.
Putin needs a viable exit strategy. To simply admit defeat could prove disastrous for his own position. He has, if at all possible, to exert enough pressure on the Ukrainians that they concede sufficient in the negotiations that he can claim a victory of sorts. Doubly so if his military is finding it hard to capture those bits of territory he's like to keep (notably Mariupol, to complete the Donbas-Crimea corridor).
One thing this conflict has done is to show up deficiencies in the Russian military machine. Which are going to take time and money to rectify. Money he may not have if economically isolated from wealthy and stable markets in the West, who become determined to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.
China will be wary of having its own companies who deal with Russia being boycotted (if not officially sanctioned) or inhibited by extra red tape in those same, vital Western markets. They also won't be shy of profiting from Moscow's misfortunes, if they can. |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 12:07 - Mar 3 with 2422 views | BlueBadger |
Look, they are definitely going to come down on them.
Right after the cheques have been cashed. |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 12:16 - Mar 3 with 2378 views | homer_123 |
| Defeating Putin on 12:06 - Mar 3 by Guthrum |
Absolutely. If there is no way out, there is also no incentive for an enemy to retreat. They have to just stand and fight.
Putin needs a viable exit strategy. To simply admit defeat could prove disastrous for his own position. He has, if at all possible, to exert enough pressure on the Ukrainians that they concede sufficient in the negotiations that he can claim a victory of sorts. Doubly so if his military is finding it hard to capture those bits of territory he's like to keep (notably Mariupol, to complete the Donbas-Crimea corridor).
One thing this conflict has done is to show up deficiencies in the Russian military machine. Which are going to take time and money to rectify. Money he may not have if economically isolated from wealthy and stable markets in the West, who become determined to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.
China will be wary of having its own companies who deal with Russia being boycotted (if not officially sanctioned) or inhibited by extra red tape in those same, vital Western markets. They also won't be shy of profiting from Moscow's misfortunes, if they can. |
Yes, there has been deficiencies in their military but I think this is compounded by the Ukrainian resistance.
However, the Ukrainians are vastly outnumbered and it is really only a matter of time and I can't see them holding out long enough for the current sanctions to have the desired effect. I would love to be wrong on this. You are right - certainly going forward he's not going to have access to the funds he once did. My concern here would be that he gets what he wants from the Ukraine (puppet gov etc and no need to occupy) and then the West reverts to type and slowly lifts sanctions over time.
Your last sentence is absolutely spot on. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 12:22 - Mar 3 with 2326 views | Churchman |
They are about as reluctant as it’s possible to be without screaming ‘leave the lid on, nothing to see there!’ - well apart from they themselves being neck deep in it. If Boris and the gang are not tied up (owned) by Russian money, it’s easy - pile in on these people. But he’s not doing that. It’s something The opposition need to keep shining a light on in my view. | | | |
| Defeating Putin on 12:50 - Mar 3 with 2199 views | eireblue |
“It’s time to freeze these assets and put them to good use, by temporarily housing Ukrainian refugees escaping this terrible war.”
Gets my vote.
It seems Tory Government are leading the way on sanctions, and avoiding the inconvenience. |  | | |
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| Defeating Putin on 12:53 - Mar 3 with 2186 views | Guthrum |
| Defeating Putin on 12:16 - Mar 3 by homer_123 |
Yes, there has been deficiencies in their military but I think this is compounded by the Ukrainian resistance.
However, the Ukrainians are vastly outnumbered and it is really only a matter of time and I can't see them holding out long enough for the current sanctions to have the desired effect. I would love to be wrong on this. You are right - certainly going forward he's not going to have access to the funds he once did. My concern here would be that he gets what he wants from the Ukraine (puppet gov etc and no need to occupy) and then the West reverts to type and slowly lifts sanctions over time.
Your last sentence is absolutely spot on. |
The question for me is less whether the Ukrainians can hold out* than whether they want to. How far are they prepared to compromise, what are they prepared to concede in order to save the country from further death and destruction?**
At that point we see whether the sanctions remain or begin to recede. I think a lot will depend upon whether the Russians pull out and how much more Ukrainian territory than the status quo ante they try to take.
* Much longer than anybody thought. Perhaps a very long time, given the fact Russian offensives appear to have stalled on every front. There is, however, a big difference between halting attacks and throwing the invader back out of the country. Requires a different set of capabilities and equipment.
** Edit: Just for clarity, this is no accusation of cowardice, appeasement or weakness. It is a natural desire to live in peace and rebuild the country. The Ukrainian government did not ask for or want this war. [Post edited 3 Mar 2022 13:09]
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| Defeating Putin on 13:05 - Mar 3 with 2107 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Defeating Putin on 12:22 - Mar 3 by Churchman |
They are about as reluctant as it’s possible to be without screaming ‘leave the lid on, nothing to see there!’ - well apart from they themselves being neck deep in it. If Boris and the gang are not tied up (owned) by Russian money, it’s easy - pile in on these people. But he’s not doing that. It’s something The opposition need to keep shining a light on in my view. |
That can't be right - Johnson said we're doing more than anyone to crackdown on corruption. World Leading no less  |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 13:23 - Mar 3 with 2017 views | Churchman |
| Defeating Putin on 13:05 - Mar 3 by Swansea_Blue |
That can't be right - Johnson said we're doing more than anyone to crackdown on corruption. World Leading no less |
So, while the French and Germans seize yachts today that look more like ships to me, presumably Johnson will be ‘recycling’ a bit of taxpayers money to service and spruce up Russian ones here before paying for the diesel to get them to safe tax havens.
World leading? In making a cozy warm and profitable welcome for these dreadful people - yup. | | | |
| Defeating Putin on 13:59 - Mar 3 with 1909 views | BlueBadger |
| Defeating Putin on 13:23 - Mar 3 by Churchman |
So, while the French and Germans seize yachts today that look more like ships to me, presumably Johnson will be ‘recycling’ a bit of taxpayers money to service and spruce up Russian ones here before paying for the diesel to get them to safe tax havens.
World leading? In making a cozy warm and profitable welcome for these dreadful people - yup. |
This is the reality of 'global Britain' innit. The Tory party doesn't care how dodgy you are or where you come from, as long as they get a slice. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 16:47 - Mar 3 with 1731 views | hype313 |
As always, follow the money.
All it'll eventually take is one oligarch to twig that the number one best selling recipe book in North Korea has been '101 Things To Do With A Turnip' every year since 1995 and things will start moving. |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 22:02 - Mar 3 with 1527 views | Coastalblue |
I've heard a couple of experts on the radio this week of the opinion that Russia's real enemy is China and that Putin is unable to see it, or doesn't want to.
The danger being that if western sanctions really bite, and are continued over a period then Russia could become increasingly reliant on China for trade who in turn will be casting envious glances at those Russian resources they are buying.
Add in the fact that China plays nobody elses game and is only totally interested in what is good for China and in a couple of decades, or less, Russia could have a real problem on it's doorstep in that direction. |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 22:13 - Mar 3 with 1505 views | Steve_M |
| Defeating Putin on 22:02 - Mar 3 by Coastalblue |
I've heard a couple of experts on the radio this week of the opinion that Russia's real enemy is China and that Putin is unable to see it, or doesn't want to.
The danger being that if western sanctions really bite, and are continued over a period then Russia could become increasingly reliant on China for trade who in turn will be casting envious glances at those Russian resources they are buying.
Add in the fact that China plays nobody elses game and is only totally interested in what is good for China and in a couple of decades, or less, Russia could have a real problem on it's doorstep in that direction. |
Yes, it’s reasonable to conclude that a Russia reliant on Chinese purchases of it’s energy isn’t in a strong position. There are still some unresolved border disputes between them too. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 22:41 - Mar 3 with 1462 views | WicklowBlue |
| Defeating Putin on 22:02 - Mar 3 by Coastalblue |
I've heard a couple of experts on the radio this week of the opinion that Russia's real enemy is China and that Putin is unable to see it, or doesn't want to.
The danger being that if western sanctions really bite, and are continued over a period then Russia could become increasingly reliant on China for trade who in turn will be casting envious glances at those Russian resources they are buying.
Add in the fact that China plays nobody elses game and is only totally interested in what is good for China and in a couple of decades, or less, Russia could have a real problem on it's doorstep in that direction. |
As you say China plays nobody else's game, China is huge enough to play the game either on the Western or Russian economies.
Another discussion on the radio waves over here today, was the possibility that China will just stay out of all this madness and see what happens. China could be afraid of being seen as backing up Putin and facing similar sanctions. |  | | |
| Defeating Putin on 22:53 - Mar 3 with 1441 views | Swansea_Blue |
I've seen people take this line that it's all about the oil/gas money and others say that the oil/gas money is only a means to fund his imperialist ambitions. It's hard to know which is correct, as there are strong cases for both. Energy is extremely important to his economy and yet he's also made plenty of statements that suggests he's fixated on reinstating some sort of Russian empire. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 07:55 - Mar 4 with 1333 views | Steve_M |
| Defeating Putin on 22:53 - Mar 3 by Swansea_Blue |
I've seen people take this line that it's all about the oil/gas money and others say that the oil/gas money is only a means to fund his imperialist ambitions. It's hard to know which is correct, as there are strong cases for both. Energy is extremely important to his economy and yet he's also made plenty of statements that suggests he's fixated on reinstating some sort of Russian empire. |
It's utter rubbish, an article about gas transport that doesn't mention Nordstream 1 (in operation) let alone the recently completed, but non-operational and now sanctioned, Nordstream 2. Without the invasion it might still have been approved this year, certainly without the ramp up of aggression over the last year it would have been. Nordstream 2 would remove the need to use the transit route through Ukraine.
Russia's energy exports are very much a means to an end for Putin, this is pure revanchism. | |
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| Defeating Putin on 08:40 - Mar 4 with 1225 views | ElephantintheRoom |
It will end just as previous Ill-considered invasions have ended. The USA’s invasion of Viêt Nam, the USSR’s previous invasion of Europe - or Afghanistan, the West’s invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan. With a long and painful defeat - and much suffering for the population of said violated countries |  |
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| Defeating Putin on 09:09 - Mar 4 with 1204 views | Churchman |
| Defeating Putin on 16:47 - Mar 3 by hype313 |
As always, follow the money.
All it'll eventually take is one oligarch to twig that the number one best selling recipe book in North Korea has been '101 Things To Do With A Turnip' every year since 1995 and things will start moving. |
I see the EU and others are unhappy with the UKs basically zero action over chasing the dirty money/oligarchs assets. The Mirror (hardly a reliable source) has dubbed them as ‘poodles with roubles’, which I like.
The solution I think would be for the EU, US and others to go after (section/freeze/repossess) Boris’ mob’s assets since they are complicit in allowing oligarchs to get away with it. Go after say Reece-Mogg’s assets in Ireland, others millions tucked away wherever etc. All of a sudden you’d see the government leap into action. All the difficulties over the law etc would be swept away over the weekend.
I can’t see chief poodle BJ being shoved into action, beyond empty talk, any other way. [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 9:18]
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