| Ukraine War about to escalate? 14:00 - Sep 27 with 4160 views | blueasfook |
Results expected in Vlad's sham referendums to show "most" people want to join Russia. Russia's nuclear doctrine can then come into play (IE. Use of nuclear arms where Russian territory is threatened).
It's definitely going to ramp up if they start using nukes - even small yield tactical nukes.
Inflation/cost of living will be the least of our worries.
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:31 - Sep 27 with 1332 views | Mookamoo |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:04 - Sep 27 by jeera |
Thing is, we've got to ask, what would Russia gain from increasing the stakes like that.
We know their leader is a egotistical loon and maybe capable of escalation through no reason other than vain pride, but what of the country and its people?
Assuming he wouldn't have sole control over that sort of weaponry what incentive is there for his main men to go along with possible, even probable, mutual destruction? If there was huge personal gain to be had then you could maybe see a few greedy close followers going along with it but surely there's nothing to be had, only whatever they already have to be lost. And these aren't going to be the poor in society, these people will already be well-off.
Although I suppose it could be argued that point has already been made in-house hence the untimely deaths of a number already. |
He is gambling that at some point we (NATO) will agree to discuss his disputed territories. As far as he is concerned it has to escalate. He is not winning using conventional weapons, and if we keep supplying him with better conventional weapons than he has access to, then he only has one real option. He knows as well as we do, he has to be offered a way out of the corner he has backed himself into.
Mark my words, he will use an attack on Crimea, which he will instigate, in order to justify the use of a non-conventional weapon on Kharkiv. |  | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:33 - Sep 27 with 1258 views | factual_blue |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:43 - Sep 27 by bungaytractor |
Cant we just send in the sas to help..... |
Which side? |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:38 - Sep 27 with 1247 views | lowhouseblue |
initial results suggest there's only 98% support for joining russia. putin's got to be disappointed with that. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:43 - Sep 27 with 1231 views | LiquidPaz |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:33 - Sep 27 by factual_blue |
Which side? |
Today my brother in law was required to attend to military recruitment office in Cherkassy Ukraine. He originally went at the beginning of the war. He was placed on the reserve list. With the plan to call further men to join during this and a winter phase.
He recently retired as a police officer in Ukraine after beating cancer. It's been a long.7 months watching Ukrainian news and keeping contact as best we can.
The reports of torture are horrendous. The depraved actions of the Russian troops are grotesque.
I often lurk in TWTD , but just wanted to say thanks to you all for having opinions, openly talking about it and keeping it current.
Thanks Paz🇺🇦 [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 17:50]
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:46 - Sep 27 with 1222 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:38 - Sep 27 by lowhouseblue |
initial results suggest there's only 98% support for joining russia. putin's got to be disappointed with that. |
Perhaps Biden should suggest in a recently carried out referendum, 98% of Russia voted to become part of Germany. If he’d like to pack up his play dough and F off before the weekend, NATO will refrain from deploying nuclear weapons.
What vote? There wasn’t one any more than there was in occupied Ukraine on any meaningful form. |  | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:50 - Sep 27 with 1219 views | Kropotkin123 |
If you go back to Putin's speech (on the 20th?), It is actually subtly different to what a lot of the mainstream media reported in the immediacy.
Putin's words are chosen carefully in these speeches. He deliberately talked about annexation, nuclear weapons and mobilization as three distinct topics. This is because he wants certain groups of people to infer meaning and run with it.
One of these groups are Russian milbloggers. Right-wing people who support Russia's expansionist policies and provide a natural stream of pro-Kremlin propaganda through their military blogs.
Putin needs to keep these people onside. He can't just shut them down like he does with liberal objectors, as these people are a cornerstone of his base support. So far he has managed to appease them whilst Russia has failed through lies (tactical retreats, up until the last one), blaming the Russian MoD (Putin has taken direct control in some areas now, so diminished opportunities going forward), and strong rhetoric (like nuclear threats).
Another group he wants to infer meaning is the international community. He wants the economic hardship and a perceived threat of nuclear war/escalation to lead to a lowering of support for the war in Ukraine. Indeed, the far-right in different countries have already started to do this.
But he deliberately did not directly say that his nuclear umbrella would extend to occupied Ukrainian territory. As Guthrum says further up, Crimea has had successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets, and this has not directly triggered any escalated response, nuclear or otherwise.
Instead Putin went out of the way to make this link, instead choosing to link the use of nuclear weapons to the possibility of western countries using nuclear weapons against Russia.
“the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction–nuclear weapons–against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...”
This is a changing situation, so there is nothing stopping him from making this link in the future.
However, we have established he could have explicitly linked nuclear to annexation, but chose not to. So why do the annexation votes now?
This is more tricky to answer, as the cards haven't been laid on the table. Some believe it is to appease his right-wing supporters (particularly milbloggers) who have increasingly questioned Russian strategy and performance. It gives them something new and positive to focus on - "liberation of Russians".
Another angle is that it allows, in Russia's eyes, the forced conscription of Ukrainian people in these territories. Instead of saying they are forcibly conscripting Ukrainians from Ukrainian land, they will now say Russian citizens from Russian land. Thus making it an argument about who's land it is and not a violation of international law.
I personally think the first reason is more important, as it will somewhat dampen the reaction to mobilization amongst his supporters. But I do currently think it is mix of these two reasons. We can't ignore that "votes" culminate shortly after the 1st Oct, which is the start of the Russian autumn conscription cycle. So we should expect annexation to be used to mobilize in these areas and Russia proper.
Sources: Most of my opinions and facts come from ISW, which is often used as a source by the international media, including the BBC. [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 16:53]
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:56 - Sep 27 with 1190 views | blueasfook |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:38 - Sep 27 by lowhouseblue |
initial results suggest there's only 98% support for joining russia. putin's got to be disappointed with that. |
97% in Kherson region
98% in Zaporizhzhia
98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”
98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”
What a surprise eh! Hard to imagine any other outcome when those voters were visited by soldiers pointing guns at them. Absolutely barbaric behaviour. Those "Russian states" will never be legitimised. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 19:52 - Sep 27 with 1072 views | Plums |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:21 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
It is and it isn't. There's nothing stopping the Russians from going against their own doctrine*. But for something the significance of nuclear weapon use, it is, perhaps, more of a brake.
Another caveat is that the Russians regard very small "tactical" nukes in a different way to strategic-level weapons, seeing them as just very large bombs and thus not necessarily triggering of an all-out exchange. However, that is not the way they are perceived in the West, so could prompt a strong response. Plus they are tactically not all that useful when not aiming at major troop concentrations. With a limited effect, what would the point be of crossing such a major red line?
* They have at a tactical level in the conduct of this war already, notably in the clumsy and slow way the offensives have been conducted. |
I believe I heard on a pod that Russia can't just fire those small nukes, they need moving into position which of course the West will know about and can act accordingly, warning Putin ahead of anything happening.
There is also the prevailing wind in Ukraine which means that any such release would result in radiation in Russia. Of course, the Russian state has a history of not valuing the lives of its population so that may be a price they are willing to pay. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 19:55 - Sep 27 with 1075 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:50 - Sep 27 by Kropotkin123 |
If you go back to Putin's speech (on the 20th?), It is actually subtly different to what a lot of the mainstream media reported in the immediacy.
Putin's words are chosen carefully in these speeches. He deliberately talked about annexation, nuclear weapons and mobilization as three distinct topics. This is because he wants certain groups of people to infer meaning and run with it.
One of these groups are Russian milbloggers. Right-wing people who support Russia's expansionist policies and provide a natural stream of pro-Kremlin propaganda through their military blogs.
Putin needs to keep these people onside. He can't just shut them down like he does with liberal objectors, as these people are a cornerstone of his base support. So far he has managed to appease them whilst Russia has failed through lies (tactical retreats, up until the last one), blaming the Russian MoD (Putin has taken direct control in some areas now, so diminished opportunities going forward), and strong rhetoric (like nuclear threats).
Another group he wants to infer meaning is the international community. He wants the economic hardship and a perceived threat of nuclear war/escalation to lead to a lowering of support for the war in Ukraine. Indeed, the far-right in different countries have already started to do this.
But he deliberately did not directly say that his nuclear umbrella would extend to occupied Ukrainian territory. As Guthrum says further up, Crimea has had successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets, and this has not directly triggered any escalated response, nuclear or otherwise.
Instead Putin went out of the way to make this link, instead choosing to link the use of nuclear weapons to the possibility of western countries using nuclear weapons against Russia.
“the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction–nuclear weapons–against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...”
This is a changing situation, so there is nothing stopping him from making this link in the future.
However, we have established he could have explicitly linked nuclear to annexation, but chose not to. So why do the annexation votes now?
This is more tricky to answer, as the cards haven't been laid on the table. Some believe it is to appease his right-wing supporters (particularly milbloggers) who have increasingly questioned Russian strategy and performance. It gives them something new and positive to focus on - "liberation of Russians".
Another angle is that it allows, in Russia's eyes, the forced conscription of Ukrainian people in these territories. Instead of saying they are forcibly conscripting Ukrainians from Ukrainian land, they will now say Russian citizens from Russian land. Thus making it an argument about who's land it is and not a violation of international law.
I personally think the first reason is more important, as it will somewhat dampen the reaction to mobilization amongst his supporters. But I do currently think it is mix of these two reasons. We can't ignore that "votes" culminate shortly after the 1st Oct, which is the start of the Russian autumn conscription cycle. So we should expect annexation to be used to mobilize in these areas and Russia proper.
Sources: Most of my opinions and facts come from ISW, which is often used as a source by the international media, including the BBC. [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 16:53]
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I think the referendums were launched now as somebody has realised they may already be past the high water mark of Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory. That may not be the way it was framed to Putin by his advisers, but the retreat from Kharkiv and setbacks in Kherson, combined with snail's-pace progress at best in the Donbas, could easily be interpreted as warning signs.
They were conducted in great haste, without the time to even decorate properly with trimmings of due process. With polling stations coming under fire. Immediate result announcement (that was remarkably quick counting, considering there's a war on). A rush job before any more ground is lost. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 20:08 - Sep 27 with 1053 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 19:52 - Sep 27 by Plums |
I believe I heard on a pod that Russia can't just fire those small nukes, they need moving into position which of course the West will know about and can act accordingly, warning Putin ahead of anything happening.
There is also the prevailing wind in Ukraine which means that any such release would result in radiation in Russia. Of course, the Russian state has a history of not valuing the lives of its population so that may be a price they are willing to pay. |
They can be delivered by air-launched missile, sending a bomber from a great distance away. Those things can't really be tracked in that way. It's mainly the mobile strategic launchers which the West are keeping an eye on.
Depending upon where and how it is used (particularly the blast altitude*), there may be almost no fallout from a low-yield device in the 1 to 10 kiloton range.
* Most fallout is dust and debris sucked up by the rising fireball, then drifting downwind in the upper atmosphere. If the blast radius doesn't reach the ground, there's much less of that, but still damage from light, heat and direct radiation. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 20:19 - Sep 27 with 1044 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:55 - Sep 27 by nodge_blue |
Yeah but didn't Putin change the angle on that the other day and just referenced defending russian land. |
Not really. In the speech, Putin carefully danced around explicitly threatening the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.
He said: 'I would like to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for some components more modern than those of the Nato countries. And if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.' Very vague. The only specific references to nuclear weapons were about the West threatening Russia with them. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 20:27 - Sep 27 with 1040 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 19:55 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
I think the referendums were launched now as somebody has realised they may already be past the high water mark of Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory. That may not be the way it was framed to Putin by his advisers, but the retreat from Kharkiv and setbacks in Kherson, combined with snail's-pace progress at best in the Donbas, could easily be interpreted as warning signs.
They were conducted in great haste, without the time to even decorate properly with trimmings of due process. With polling stations coming under fire. Immediate result announcement (that was remarkably quick counting, considering there's a war on). A rush job before any more ground is lost. |
I agree with this, but to what end is the declaration important? To appease internal right-wing dissent? To mobilize enough people to try and hang on to the declared territory?
Observers I've seen are saying that new recruits won't actually be logistically impactful until at least the new year. Then it remains to be seen Observers also say there is a third Ukrainian division that is yet to be deployed. Russia could lose a lot of territory before deployment.
So how does the declaration change things? It definitely sets up Russia for significant embarrassment in the near future (through an inability to enforce its declaration). What is the upside? | |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 21:14 - Sep 27 with 999 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:43 - Sep 27 by LiquidPaz |
Today my brother in law was required to attend to military recruitment office in Cherkassy Ukraine. He originally went at the beginning of the war. He was placed on the reserve list. With the plan to call further men to join during this and a winter phase.
He recently retired as a police officer in Ukraine after beating cancer. It's been a long.7 months watching Ukrainian news and keeping contact as best we can.
The reports of torture are horrendous. The depraved actions of the Russian troops are grotesque.
I often lurk in TWTD , but just wanted to say thanks to you all for having opinions, openly talking about it and keeping it current.
Thanks Paz🇺🇦 [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 17:50]
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I imagine you must be that person that's me!! |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 22:11 - Sep 27 with 944 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 20:27 - Sep 27 by Kropotkin123 |
I agree with this, but to what end is the declaration important? To appease internal right-wing dissent? To mobilize enough people to try and hang on to the declared territory?
Observers I've seen are saying that new recruits won't actually be logistically impactful until at least the new year. Then it remains to be seen Observers also say there is a third Ukrainian division that is yet to be deployed. Russia could lose a lot of territory before deployment.
So how does the declaration change things? It definitely sets up Russia for significant embarrassment in the near future (through an inability to enforce its declaration). What is the upside? |
The mobilisation is (IMO) purely to appease the hardline bloggers, who have been loudly calling for it. Effectiveness is irrelevant. I've seen suggestions they are essentially not bothering with training, in which case the new men will be more liability than reinforcement (quite apart from low motivation and fragile morale). Even if trained, there isn't enough modern kit to equip them.
If it was intended as a genuinely useful military procedure, it would have been done months ago. Preferably (from a Russian perspective) before the conflict was launched back in February. Now is way too late.
The "referendums" are to justify the war and nail down occupied territory, on the sham basis of self-determination. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 23:52 - Sep 27 with 879 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:43 - Sep 27 by LiquidPaz |
Today my brother in law was required to attend to military recruitment office in Cherkassy Ukraine. He originally went at the beginning of the war. He was placed on the reserve list. With the plan to call further men to join during this and a winter phase.
He recently retired as a police officer in Ukraine after beating cancer. It's been a long.7 months watching Ukrainian news and keeping contact as best we can.
The reports of torture are horrendous. The depraved actions of the Russian troops are grotesque.
I often lurk in TWTD , but just wanted to say thanks to you all for having opinions, openly talking about it and keeping it current.
Thanks Paz🇺🇦 [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 17:50]
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The appalling discipline of parts of the Russian army has really surprised me. It’s not minor ‘losing it’ either. I really don’t think that rushing conscripts, criminals and sweepings to the front line is going to help. I suspect if this disaster drags on, massacres, torture, murder and theft will only escalate.
I know the Russians have only suffered 5300 casualties in 7 months of conflict according to their oh so reliable sources, but if they fill out those 5300 gaps with what they’ve recruited and rounded up, I suspect their casualties might go a tad higher.
I hioe your BIL and family stay safe. | | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? (n/t) on 00:42 - Sep 28 with 868 views | floridablue |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 16:43 - Sep 27 by LiquidPaz |
Today my brother in law was required to attend to military recruitment office in Cherkassy Ukraine. He originally went at the beginning of the war. He was placed on the reserve list. With the plan to call further men to join during this and a winter phase.
He recently retired as a police officer in Ukraine after beating cancer. It's been a long.7 months watching Ukrainian news and keeping contact as best we can.
The reports of torture are horrendous. The depraved actions of the Russian troops are grotesque.
I often lurk in TWTD , but just wanted to say thanks to you all for having opinions, openly talking about it and keeping it current.
Thanks Paz🇺🇦 [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 17:50]
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up vote needed! [Post edited 28 Sep 2022 0:46]
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