| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 10:03 - Feb 7 with 4813 views | itfcjoe |
Will that be enough? Probably just about.
Will we do it? Looks unlikely at moment.
How do we get there
13 wins+
12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats
11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats
10 wins, 7 draws, 0 defeats
You look at the remaining fixtures and 11-12 wins looks more than doable:
9 home games - will need 6-7 wins as a minimum
8 away games - will need 4-5 wins
That will get us to 10-12 wins, if it is at the upper end of that we'll be fine, if it is at the lower end we won't be.
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:22 - Feb 7 with 1314 views | clive_baker |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:12 - Feb 7 by LankHenners |
That's not really how it works and the teams we've already beaten are roughly where they've been all season, the only real difference being, e.g., Derby away is a tougher game than Derby at home.
I've lost a little faith we'll be able to reach top 2 but I don't see the need for the extreme doom and gloom where people assume we'll lose a bunch and every other team around us will go on unstoppable winning streaks.
We may need a couple more points than in the OP but we've shown it's not beyond us. |
I think it's possible, Saturday really feels like a must win though. Off the back of it we have a run of fixtures that could and should be fruitful. We need to make some ground on Plymouth, get ourselves with a win of them in the near term and see how they cope with that pressure.
This disastrous run of form you would be forgiven for thinking we're in looking on here is actually 1 defeat in our last 9, and that was a bit of a circus in the fog at Oxford. The other 8 include a convincing win against Championship Rotherham and drawing at home to Premier League bound Burnley in the cup, convincing home wins and clean sheets against Oxford and Morecambe and a draw against then top of the league Plymouth which we were seconds away from winning (although I would argue they were good for the point). It's the 3 away games at Pompey, Lincoln and Cambridge that have yielded 3 draws that's held us back. Even converting 1 of those to a win would've made a huge difference.
It's not over yet, but it does probably mean we need to be taking maximum points at the likes of Bristol Rovers, MK Dons etc, draws aren't enough. 13 points from the next 5 league games has to really be the expectation. That would leave us on 68 with 36 to play for. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:23 - Feb 7 with 1288 views | unstableblue |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:17 - Feb 7 by Pinewoodblue |
Saw one of those super computer predictions yesterday
Showed Wednesday top with 95 pts, Plymouth 92pts then Derby, Ipswich Bolton and Barnsley.
Not sure, as fans, we could cope with Those play off possibilities.
We have to forget about the other teams and concentrate on our own game. Not sure we have the mentality to cope with that sort of relentless pressure, then Ipswich never do anything the easy way. |
See my note below. We are strong enough for the play-offs, but we need to go into them on a real run of form
17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 by unstableblue 7 Feb 2023 10:22Thanks Joe, interesting post
(Although didn’t understand - ‘12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats’?)
I’m looking at in two ways now:
1) We need to go on a serious run NOW, starting Saturday, and then building momentum into 4 very winnable games (Bristol Rovers (a), Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h))
2) We need to end the season as the form team, secure the play-off place, and go in with the players fit, coordinated and dangerous in front of goal… Broadhead and Clarke settled.. defence more secure… Ladapo and Hirst scoring at will
As you say 1 is looking much less likely and it will be hugely disappointing to miss out on automatic but Plymouth and Weds have been relentless and our young manager is dealing with his first adversity
I do think Charlton away messed us up as has some intermittent player form. I think Plymouth have had their Charlton away games… (including home and away against us).. and built from it
I do have a dream that we beat Weds go on a run, and MK Dons is the moment we reach peak McKenna in front of 7k away blues… now wouldn’t that be nice!!??
Do fear Burnley away is a major distraction but clearly McKenna resting a few
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:34 - Feb 7 with 1225 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:23 - Feb 7 by unstableblue |
See my note below. We are strong enough for the play-offs, but we need to go into them on a real run of form
17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 by unstableblue 7 Feb 2023 10:22Thanks Joe, interesting post
(Although didn’t understand - ‘12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats’?)
I’m looking at in two ways now:
1) We need to go on a serious run NOW, starting Saturday, and then building momentum into 4 very winnable games (Bristol Rovers (a), Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h))
2) We need to end the season as the form team, secure the play-off place, and go in with the players fit, coordinated and dangerous in front of goal… Broadhead and Clarke settled.. defence more secure… Ladapo and Hirst scoring at will
As you say 1 is looking much less likely and it will be hugely disappointing to miss out on automatic but Plymouth and Weds have been relentless and our young manager is dealing with his first adversity
I do think Charlton away messed us up as has some intermittent player form. I think Plymouth have had their Charlton away games… (including home and away against us).. and built from it
I do have a dream that we beat Weds go on a run, and MK Dons is the moment we reach peak McKenna in front of 7k away blues… now wouldn’t that be nice!!??
Do fear Burnley away is a major distraction but clearly McKenna resting a few
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Should we win tonight then the prospect of a quarter final match against Sheffield Wednesday could disrupt preparation for far more important game on Saturday. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:36 - Feb 7 with 1208 views | LankHenners |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:22 - Feb 7 by clive_baker |
I think it's possible, Saturday really feels like a must win though. Off the back of it we have a run of fixtures that could and should be fruitful. We need to make some ground on Plymouth, get ourselves with a win of them in the near term and see how they cope with that pressure.
This disastrous run of form you would be forgiven for thinking we're in looking on here is actually 1 defeat in our last 9, and that was a bit of a circus in the fog at Oxford. The other 8 include a convincing win against Championship Rotherham and drawing at home to Premier League bound Burnley in the cup, convincing home wins and clean sheets against Oxford and Morecambe and a draw against then top of the league Plymouth which we were seconds away from winning (although I would argue they were good for the point). It's the 3 away games at Pompey, Lincoln and Cambridge that have yielded 3 draws that's held us back. Even converting 1 of those to a win would've made a huge difference.
It's not over yet, but it does probably mean we need to be taking maximum points at the likes of Bristol Rovers, MK Dons etc, draws aren't enough. 13 points from the next 5 league games has to really be the expectation. That would leave us on 68 with 36 to play for. |
I think where I'm at is I'm confident we *can* do it but a bit more unconvinced now that we *will* do it.
As you say it's not as if we've been awful, just a bit below the high standards you need to be gunning for autos, with some dodgy away performances and results the main factor holding us back.
Frustrating that we've hit this sticky patch as we should really have been top by some distance at the halfway point, looking at things from a statistical point of view and the usual random variables in football such as dodgy officiating calls, jammy deflections, penalty decisions etc. just not going our way at all. Obviously that's if my Auntie had b0ll0cks as Big Mick would say but it's added up to put more pressure on these games than it should which you hope the players have the mentality for.
A win on Saturday would release a bit of tension in everyone's shoulders but as you point out would have to be followed up by capitalising on the next set of fixtures. A draw wouldn't be the end of the world if, IF, we won the next 5 before Bolton away but it would get everyone nervy especially if Plymouth and Derby won.
Agree that Plymouth are more catchable at this stage - they've lost Whittaker, Cooper and Scarr potentially out for a bit, they ran out of steam last season and fell away and aren't actually in brilliant form themselves either. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:46 - Feb 7 with 1148 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
The Ipswich way would be to beat Sheff Weds on Saturday giving us the belief we can go on a run, and then losing to Forest Green. |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:59 - Feb 7 with 1099 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:22 - Feb 7 by unstableblue |
Thanks Joe, interesting post
(Although didn’t understand - ‘12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats’?)
I’m looking at in two ways now:
1) We need to go on a serious run NOW, starting Saturday, and then building momentum into 4 very winnable games (Bristol Rovers (a), Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h))
2) We need to end the season as the form team, secure the play-off place, and go in with the players fit, coordinated and dangerous in front of goal… Broadhead and Clarke settled.. defence more secure… Ladapo and Hirst scoring at will
As you say 1 is looking much less likely and it will be hugely disappointing to miss out on automatic but Plymouth and Weds have been relentless and our young manager is dealing with his first adversity
I do think Charlton away messed us up as has some intermittent player form. I think Plymouth have had their Charlton away games… (including home and away against us).. and built from it
I do have a dream that we beat Weds go on a run, and MK Dons is the moment we reach peak McKenna in front of 7k away blues… now wouldn’t that be nice!!??
Do fear Burnley away is a major distraction but clearly McKenna resting a few |
Worth noting of course that Sheffield Wednesday play tonight as well and that game is far more winnable for them and can see them going for it, even with Saturday on the horizon. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 12:03 - Feb 7 with 1060 views | itfcsuth |
I looked at our fixture schedule, and went with 12 wins, 3 defeats, 2 draws.
38 points collected. 93 points finish the season.
That will have been a fantastic effort, and only time will tell where it would get you.
Still many ups and downs to come between now and the end of the season. |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 12:19 - Feb 7 with 1013 views | Illinoisblue |
Be easier to answer after Saturday but right now we have given ourselves a mountain to climb. And we’ve left our climbing boots and big coat at home. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 13:34 - Feb 7 with 890 views | Exiled2Surrey |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:34 - Feb 7 by Pinewoodblue |
Should we win tonight then the prospect of a quarter final match against Sheffield Wednesday could disrupt preparation for far more important game on Saturday. |
I am going to be in a minority here, but I think this works in our favour and I can only really see helpful outcomes:
Both of us win - we are both marginally tired from midweek exertions and they have a draining trip to PR to cope with midweek later in the campaign
They win and we don’t - they go to a hot Burnley midweek and will probably have to go strong at that stage of the competition
We win and they don’t - we will gain confidence from beating the best the championship has to offer, and it would mean km has gone some way to fixing our problems
What’s not to like? | | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 13:49 - Feb 7 with 833 views | Cuffy81 |
Does the squad have enough quality to on a run required? absolutely
Will we do it? Without being pessimistic - no. Key stat out of them all is that we haven't won back to back games since October - you need a run of 4/5/6 win on the bounce - we seem to follow up a good performance with an indifferent one. | | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 13:59 - Feb 7 with 785 views | hype313 |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 13:49 - Feb 7 by Cuffy81 |
Does the squad have enough quality to on a run required? absolutely
Will we do it? Without being pessimistic - no. Key stat out of them all is that we haven't won back to back games since October - you need a run of 4/5/6 win on the bounce - we seem to follow up a good performance with an indifferent one. |
Yep, potentially with this squad you would think they could go on an amazing run.
But, they haven't shown so far that's doable, add the fact that teams seem quite content with us having the lions share of possession and are happy letting us pass to each other without any penetration. |  |
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