| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? 23:20 - Mar 21 with 2691 views | Kievthegreat |
Seeing as we're all arguing if it was a good night, I thought I'd check what FiveThirtyEight thought about tonight.
Chances of finishing top 2 before todays games:
Sheffield - 96%
Plymouth - 51%
Ipswich - 33%
Barnsley - 19%
After todays games:
Sheffield - 89% (-7%)
Plymouth - 53% (+2%)
Barnsley - 32% (+13%)
Ipswich - 26% (-7%)
Plymouth haven't really gained much because they were big favourites and that was already baked into their numbers. Barnsley gain a lot because the game was judged as basically coin toss by their simulation, plus they take points off of one of the teams they are chasing. Us and Wednesday are the losers, but it's not by a huge amount, bearing in mind our win against Bolton saw us jump by 13%.
Unless there are upsets in our rivals games, we will see those odds shorten again. However like the Plymouth result, it should have a massive impact as Wednesday and Barnsley are extremely heavy favourites in their games while we have our international break. It will be interesting to see our position before kick-off against Derby. We'll still be 3rd (unless Barnsley put 13 past Exeter), but no-one will have any games in hand on us. Instead we'll have 1 each against Plymouth and Wednesday and be level with Barnsley. Should be a ridiculously competitive end to the season. |  | | |  |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 15:57 - Mar 22 with 2218 views | Ryorry |
Interesting, and (unfortunately, wish it were otherwise) backs up what I posted on another thread last night, ie
"So on balance I'd rather that match (Tykes v SW) ends in a draw - I reckon a total of four points lost between two close rivals is more helpful to us than a total of three points dropped by one of them - though that doesn't include the psychological effects for one of them if they dropped all three, which could be a bit of a 'stopper'. I really wouldn't want Barnsley to win though - makes it all even tighter & more uncomfortable." |  |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 16:14 - Mar 22 with 2181 views | Sawtrich |
Yeah, I'd say that's correct. It feels slightly less likely than it did! Plymouth winning was annoying, but fair play to them. Wednesday and Plymouth have the points on the board but Ipswich and Barnsley have the momentum, it's going to be interesting!! |  | | |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 17:24 - Mar 22 with 2085 views | Pinewoodblue |
Sheffield Wednesday play Forest Green Rovers on Sunday and Cheltenham on Wednesday while Barnsley travel to Exeter on Tuesday.
Our prospects, on paper, could look far worse before we play Derby. |  |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:49 - Mar 22 with 1962 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
The only stat that really counts there is that (by their analysis), our odds have lengthened. I am not sure I understand why. We still simply need to match Barnsley's record to finish above them and better Plymouth or Wednesday's by 5 or 3 points.
They reckon that one result has cut our chances from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Some unexpected results in the next few weeks will very rapidly change those odds.
It is still in our hands. If we win our games, we will get the points. Both Wednesday and Plymouth are not going to win all of theirs. |  |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:57 - Mar 22 with 1912 views | Swansea_Blue |
Interesting, but also likely to be proved an unreliable indicator at the same time. Who knows. It would take someone with the skills of one of Chico's prescient economists to guess exactly how the season is going to pan out from here. |  |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 19:05 - Mar 22 with 1892 views | Ryorry |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:49 - Mar 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The only stat that really counts there is that (by their analysis), our odds have lengthened. I am not sure I understand why. We still simply need to match Barnsley's record to finish above them and better Plymouth or Wednesday's by 5 or 3 points.
They reckon that one result has cut our chances from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Some unexpected results in the next few weeks will very rapidly change those odds.
It is still in our hands. If we win our games, we will get the points. Both Wednesday and Plymouth are not going to win all of theirs. |
I think it might be to do with one of our closest rivals dropping 3 points, instead of 4 points being dropped altogether by two of our closest rivals, as would have obviously happened with a draw.
I've based that on the abstract maths of total possible points available to all teams. As many as poss being dropped 'into the ether' by close rivals is better for us I'd have thought (albeit I'm no mathematician or statistician).
I do also think Wednesday aren't that likely to have a serious wobble with the remaining games they have, so Barnsley coming right up into the challenge for the autos just makes 4 instead of 3 competing for the top two more uncomfortable for me. | |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 19:06 - Mar 22 with 1886 views | jayessess |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:49 - Mar 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The only stat that really counts there is that (by their analysis), our odds have lengthened. I am not sure I understand why. We still simply need to match Barnsley's record to finish above them and better Plymouth or Wednesday's by 5 or 3 points.
They reckon that one result has cut our chances from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Some unexpected results in the next few weeks will very rapidly change those odds.
It is still in our hands. If we win our games, we will get the points. Both Wednesday and Plymouth are not going to win all of theirs. |
These things work by modelling all the possible permutations of all the fixtures between now and the end of the season. Presumably in 7% of those scenarios us finishing above Barnsley or Plymouth required one or both them to drop points in their fixtures last night. |  |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 21:34 - Mar 22 with 1634 views | WestSussexBlue |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:49 - Mar 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The only stat that really counts there is that (by their analysis), our odds have lengthened. I am not sure I understand why. We still simply need to match Barnsley's record to finish above them and better Plymouth or Wednesday's by 5 or 3 points.
They reckon that one result has cut our chances from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Some unexpected results in the next few weeks will very rapidly change those odds.
It is still in our hands. If we win our games, we will get the points. Both Wednesday and Plymouth are not going to win all of theirs. |
The key phrase there is “if we win our games”
We’ve had a hell of a run and hauled ourselves right back in to the mix, however I’m concerned that
our dropped points earlier in the season now means we have to probably get at least 8 points from Derby, Wycombe, Peterborough and Barnsley. |  | | |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 21:52 - Mar 22 with 1576 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 19:06 - Mar 22 by jayessess |
These things work by modelling all the possible permutations of all the fixtures between now and the end of the season. Presumably in 7% of those scenarios us finishing above Barnsley or Plymouth required one or both them to drop points in their fixtures last night. |
I guess the model will also use Barnsley's result to predict better results for them moving forward than if they had lost. The model probably puts a lot on the result of our fixture and now anticipates a win for them as more likely than a draw. | |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 01:50 - Mar 23 with 1385 views | Alphacentauri76 |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 21:52 - Mar 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I guess the model will also use Barnsley's result to predict better results for them moving forward than if they had lost. The model probably puts a lot on the result of our fixture and now anticipates a win for them as more likely than a draw. |
Quite obviously it's not in your hands at this moment in time to grab 2nd, the worry at this moment for you is Barnsley bang on form beating everyone.
I think your chances of top two hinge a lot on two games, Derby and Barnsley.
Argyle are thankfully winning but last nights result puts pressure on us to keep performing, Wednesday will win the league so its a shootout for second and three in the race.
Having been top two for most of the season it would be a hard pill to swallow if we are sucked into the play offs.
The most likely 2nd place team currently is Barnsley, I think your draws have left a huge gap for them, if Argyle drop too many points we will be in the play offs.
If however you beat Barnsley I think you'll nick 2nd, but you have to beat Derby though I have that down as a draw.
This is a season where 4 teams deserve promotion but only two will be certain whilst some underachieving team will probably win the play offs.
It's kind of exciting but at the same time it's not, the performances no longer matter its just about 3 points in each game no matter how they come.
Good luck to your club as we battle this out. | | | |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 07:32 - Mar 23 with 1109 views | NthQldITFC |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 01:50 - Mar 23 by Alphacentauri76 |
Quite obviously it's not in your hands at this moment in time to grab 2nd, the worry at this moment for you is Barnsley bang on form beating everyone.
I think your chances of top two hinge a lot on two games, Derby and Barnsley.
Argyle are thankfully winning but last nights result puts pressure on us to keep performing, Wednesday will win the league so its a shootout for second and three in the race.
Having been top two for most of the season it would be a hard pill to swallow if we are sucked into the play offs.
The most likely 2nd place team currently is Barnsley, I think your draws have left a huge gap for them, if Argyle drop too many points we will be in the play offs.
If however you beat Barnsley I think you'll nick 2nd, but you have to beat Derby though I have that down as a draw.
This is a season where 4 teams deserve promotion but only two will be certain whilst some underachieving team will probably win the play offs.
It's kind of exciting but at the same time it's not, the performances no longer matter its just about 3 points in each game no matter how they come.
Good luck to your club as we battle this out. |
I have an unshakable belief in the quality, capability and determination of the Spring 2023 (S23) upgraded version of ITFC. Watch out. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 11:35 - Mar 23 with 889 views | The_Realist_09 |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 18:49 - Mar 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The only stat that really counts there is that (by their analysis), our odds have lengthened. I am not sure I understand why. We still simply need to match Barnsley's record to finish above them and better Plymouth or Wednesday's by 5 or 3 points.
They reckon that one result has cut our chances from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Some unexpected results in the next few weeks will very rapidly change those odds.
It is still in our hands. If we win our games, we will get the points. Both Wednesday and Plymouth are not going to win all of theirs. |
Barnsley have also been winning games that were statistically not as easy as ours.
In their last 6 they've beaten Derby, Portsmouth, Wycombe, Plymouth and Wednesday.
Their confidence will be through the roof after that. Now down to us to get big returns from similarly tough games.
It's going to be a real test of character, no doubt we'll need some big moments and a bit of luck. | | | |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 11:42 - Mar 23 with 868 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 01:50 - Mar 23 by Alphacentauri76 |
Quite obviously it's not in your hands at this moment in time to grab 2nd, the worry at this moment for you is Barnsley bang on form beating everyone.
I think your chances of top two hinge a lot on two games, Derby and Barnsley.
Argyle are thankfully winning but last nights result puts pressure on us to keep performing, Wednesday will win the league so its a shootout for second and three in the race.
Having been top two for most of the season it would be a hard pill to swallow if we are sucked into the play offs.
The most likely 2nd place team currently is Barnsley, I think your draws have left a huge gap for them, if Argyle drop too many points we will be in the play offs.
If however you beat Barnsley I think you'll nick 2nd, but you have to beat Derby though I have that down as a draw.
This is a season where 4 teams deserve promotion but only two will be certain whilst some underachieving team will probably win the play offs.
It's kind of exciting but at the same time it's not, the performances no longer matter its just about 3 points in each game no matter how they come.
Good luck to your club as we battle this out. |
It is very much in our own hands. If we win all the rest of our games we will be promoted without a shadow of doubt. As I say, we simply need to better your results by 5 points (with an extra match to achieve them) and match Barnsley's. If Wednesday unexpectedly drop off and are drawn into it, all the better.
One thing is for sure, unless 2 teams drop off significantly, it is going to be very tight for second place. | |
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| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 16:02 - Mar 23 with 715 views | Alphacentauri76 |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 11:42 - Mar 23 by Nthsuffolkblue |
It is very much in our own hands. If we win all the rest of our games we will be promoted without a shadow of doubt. As I say, we simply need to better your results by 5 points (with an extra match to achieve them) and match Barnsley's. If Wednesday unexpectedly drop off and are drawn into it, all the better.
One thing is for sure, unless 2 teams drop off significantly, it is going to be very tight for second place. |
The only thing in your hands is to keep winning, you're currently 5 points behind us with a game in hand.
You firstly have to win that game in hand or Barnsley are going to be taking third from you.
I just don't see you making up enough ground to overhaul us and personally think Barnsley are better than you and us and probably likely to take 2nd. | | | |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 16:43 - Mar 23 with 653 views | CokeIsKey |
| Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? on 16:02 - Mar 23 by Alphacentauri76 |
The only thing in your hands is to keep winning, you're currently 5 points behind us with a game in hand.
You firstly have to win that game in hand or Barnsley are going to be taking third from you.
I just don't see you making up enough ground to overhaul us and personally think Barnsley are better than you and us and probably likely to take 2nd. |
Barnsley have an XG on average 0.78 lower than ours, an XG against that is 0.19 higher than ours and a goal difference that's 12 below us but yes - they're obviously a better team than us.
I wouldn't be surprised if you drop more points than expected in these last few games. The teams at the bottom will be sitting back happy with taking a point and I could see you struggling to break them down with only 7 set-piece goals this season (compared to our 21).
It could easily go down to what happens at Oakwell, but we've changed a lot as a side since our home draw against you and genuinely look like converting good performances into results - our new attacking options look far more clinical than before and I think Luongo in midfield has kept a lot of pressure off the defence.
I don't see Barnsley as a great side, just fairly solid and clinical. But they will have off days because they don't drown out their opposition as we do, so I don't see why we should worry about them. |  |
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