| Mike O’Leary 22:19 - Jun 8 with 10462 views | Parky |
Had a very nice brief chat with Mike O’Leary this evening, and wanted to say, he seems a very pleasant bloke.
I asked what his expectations for next season are, and he stated he just wants to see sustainable progress. He said that we won’t be making any “big money signings” and will try and be clever with our recruitment.
Him, Ashton and a few others were apparently meeting with a number of the US owners, he said “it’s too early” when asked if they were in town to greet a new signing.
I know there’s a few rumours going around today [about McKenna], so thought I’d share a positive encounter. |  | | |  |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:58 - Jun 9 with 2574 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Mike O’Leary on 08:23 - Jun 9 by ElephantintheRoom |
Simple maths if you can understand the 2x table.
£10million lost last year £10 million plus loss this year. Can you work it out now?
That’s not negative it’s the absurd reality of franchise football. I have no idea what ‘sustainable’ means in the mind of opportunists like O’Leary and I doubt he has either. He’s simply here to make money off the back of other people’s money. |
We were losing £6m a year before the takeover, so it's actually £8m thats been 'thrown' at it additionally over 2 years. I still find it hard to believe that you really are a Town fan, I don't recall many posts from you accusing ME of 'throwing £18m over three years at it'.
You talk about 'Franchise Football' but I've seen zero from you to make me think you know anything about how football finance actually works.
In fact, aside from your regular sh*t stirring posts, I'm struggling to think what use you are to this forum as a whole. [Post edited 9 Jun 2023 15:39]
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| Mike O’Leary on 10:01 - Jun 9 with 2526 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:44 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
It is interesting that the language has changed from targeting promotion from L1 to making steady progress.
I suspect we will continue to shop in the free market (we can offer decent wages) and the Davis/Broadhead/Clarke £1-2m shop, unless we sell players to raise additional funds.
We lost headline £13m in 2021/2 and suspect a similar if not higher amount last year, albeit perhaps around £4m does not count towards FFP. Our income will be circa £10m higher this coming season, mainly TV money, but even then we are not going to be able to go out and spend £4-5m on a player.
It was interesting that we offered Aluko a deal, I was not suspecting that, and with Luongo also offered terms, I suspect we are looking at 3-4 additional players at most (CB, CF and versatile forward). We may see much more focus on the likes of Camara, Ball, Edwards than we originally thought. |
It's not that interesting really is it?
He was talking to a Town fan, a Town fan that someone like MO'L knows willl run off and immediately post what he was told on Twitter or a forum.
What else is he going to say? | |
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| Mike O’Leary on 10:01 - Jun 9 with 2511 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:55 - Jun 9 by Keno |
"they have no choice but to spend a sht load of money to get out of this league"
is that true tho?
Look at Luton and Coventry have they a shtload?
I ask cos I dont know |
That is true tbf. Altho how often in the championship does that happen? |  |
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| Mike O’Leary on 10:26 - Jun 9 with 2461 views | xrayspecs |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:50 - Jun 9 by Keno |
also, and this may be stating the bleeding obvious he is hardly going to say "and yes we expect to be spend big money on loads of players'
firstly it would undermine the current squad and secondly it would immediately jack the price up in the eyes of any club we approach about players |
I agree, but it is also highly likely to be true given our overall financial picture and FFP. | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 10:32 - Jun 9 with 2443 views | xrayspecs |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:53 - Jun 9 by FrimleyBlue |
This is where however we really do get to see what ambitions the owners have and if they can help fulfill all town fans dreams.
Just look at wigan on how it can look amazing one minute then the next all gone wrong when financial input doesn't equate to championship success.
Just hope they really really do have an understanding and an acknowledgment that to go further they have no choice but to spend a sht load of money to get out of this league. |
Except we cannot do that.
FFP rules. £39m losses over three seasons before clubs are placed under sanctions.
We lost £12m in 2021/2 and likely a higher amount last year. Without adding to our squad, our losses for the season ahead (pre- extra TV money), mean we are not far off £39m cumulative over three seasons. Some of that does not count to FPP (Community, Women etc.) but will not change the story significantly.
The new TV money and increased commercial income will likely give us £10m headroom, so we cannot spend a sht load of money. This is why excellent recruitment, coaching and player trading are so vital. [Post edited 9 Jun 2023 10:36]
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| Mike O’Leary on 10:35 - Jun 9 with 2422 views | xrayspecs |
| Mike O’Leary on 10:01 - Jun 9 by Cheltenham_Blue |
It's not that interesting really is it?
He was talking to a Town fan, a Town fan that someone like MO'L knows willl run off and immediately post what he was told on Twitter or a forum.
What else is he going to say? |
Fair comment. | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 10:43 - Jun 9 with 2386 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Mike O’Leary on 10:32 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
Except we cannot do that.
FFP rules. £39m losses over three seasons before clubs are placed under sanctions.
We lost £12m in 2021/2 and likely a higher amount last year. Without adding to our squad, our losses for the season ahead (pre- extra TV money), mean we are not far off £39m cumulative over three seasons. Some of that does not count to FPP (Community, Women etc.) but will not change the story significantly.
The new TV money and increased commercial income will likely give us £10m headroom, so we cannot spend a sht load of money. This is why excellent recruitment, coaching and player trading are so vital. [Post edited 9 Jun 2023 10:36]
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I agree. I wasn't really meaning transfer fees specifically. But the overall cost of running the club will increase considerably and wil need to be highly competitive.
I remember seeing a message from the wigan chairman that they'd invested 30 million... like it was supposed to be a massive figure.. and they'd underestimated the championship. | |
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| Mike O’Leary on 11:14 - Jun 9 with 2307 views | Illinoisblue |
| Mike O’Leary on 05:41 - Jun 9 by ElephantintheRoom |
Throwing £20 million in 2 years at getting out of division 3 is hardly sustainable - nor is double digit signings every year. |
Here it is. Officially marking the start of The Very Long Summer. |  |
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| Mike O’Leary on 11:29 - Jun 9 with 2247 views | BigCommon |
| Mike O’Leary on 09:53 - Jun 9 by FrimleyBlue |
This is where however we really do get to see what ambitions the owners have and if they can help fulfill all town fans dreams.
Just look at wigan on how it can look amazing one minute then the next all gone wrong when financial input doesn't equate to championship success.
Just hope they really really do have an understanding and an acknowledgment that to go further they have no choice but to spend a sht load of money to get out of this league. |
Further more, The Championship is probably the most financially crippling division, to just "hang around" in.
We've seen it before. Few seasons of mid table mediocrity, crowds can drop, interest can fade slightly. Ergo, revenue can drop.
Progress is key, to keep interest levels high..
It might not be this season. But at some point in the not too distant future, heavier financial risk will need to be taken, in order to get out of The Championship in the right direction.. The decision makers, will need to time it right... |  | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:32 - Jun 9 with 2229 views | xrayspecs |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:29 - Jun 9 by BigCommon |
Further more, The Championship is probably the most financially crippling division, to just "hang around" in.
We've seen it before. Few seasons of mid table mediocrity, crowds can drop, interest can fade slightly. Ergo, revenue can drop.
Progress is key, to keep interest levels high..
It might not be this season. But at some point in the not too distant future, heavier financial risk will need to be taken, in order to get out of The Championship in the right direction.. The decision makers, will need to time it right... |
Which bit of the FFP rules do you fail to grasp. We are already close to the limit with the current squad. It is only the additional £8-10m revenue from moving up a league that gives us room to invest more. The notion that the owners simply need to take more financial risk completely ignores that should they pump in more money and our losses increase significantly, then we will be sanctioned - points/transfer embargo etc. | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:46 - Jun 9 with 2189 views | burnbudgiesburn |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:32 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
Which bit of the FFP rules do you fail to grasp. We are already close to the limit with the current squad. It is only the additional £8-10m revenue from moving up a league that gives us room to invest more. The notion that the owners simply need to take more financial risk completely ignores that should they pump in more money and our losses increase significantly, then we will be sanctioned - points/transfer embargo etc. |
You are right but how much of the £12m and perhaps more the next season are infastructure expenditure? I'm thinking stadium work/pitch/staples etc as that is deductable.
We perhaps have more wiggle room than is thought by headline losses. Of course a 'buy for 1m sell for 20m' sale does the trick too tho some of our fans might not like that it's the way things will work.
I don't see us spending more than 8-10m on more than about 4 players. | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:54 - Jun 9 with 2126 views | xrayspecs |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:46 - Jun 9 by burnbudgiesburn |
You are right but how much of the £12m and perhaps more the next season are infastructure expenditure? I'm thinking stadium work/pitch/staples etc as that is deductable.
We perhaps have more wiggle room than is thought by headline losses. Of course a 'buy for 1m sell for 20m' sale does the trick too tho some of our fans might not like that it's the way things will work.
I don't see us spending more than 8-10m on more than about 4 players. |
It is a good question. Someone posted on here a while back that infrastructure spend does not appear in the £12m loss, it goes onto the balance sheet instead. Not an accountant so can only repeat what was posted.
It suggests most of those losses count towards the £39m FFP limit. The deductions for women's team, community spend are not going to make a big dent in the cumulative losses.
I suspect actual transfer fee spend will be a lot lower that you estimate as you would expect players joining us to be upgrades, with upgraded salaries.
We also do not know how much the current wgaebill has increased due to promotion clauses. New deals will also eat into the extra funds.
We have let a few players leave but cannot imagine they would have been on big salaries. | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 12:35 - Jun 9 with 2039 views | ketton_itfc |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:54 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
It is a good question. Someone posted on here a while back that infrastructure spend does not appear in the £12m loss, it goes onto the balance sheet instead. Not an accountant so can only repeat what was posted.
It suggests most of those losses count towards the £39m FFP limit. The deductions for women's team, community spend are not going to make a big dent in the cumulative losses.
I suspect actual transfer fee spend will be a lot lower that you estimate as you would expect players joining us to be upgrades, with upgraded salaries.
We also do not know how much the current wgaebill has increased due to promotion clauses. New deals will also eat into the extra funds.
We have let a few players leave but cannot imagine they would have been on big salaries. |
I sort of assumed the model we would be having is one where we might buy several players for 3-5 million on the assumption that one or two come off and you can double or triple your money an make 10-20million in order to compete. To me that would be "sustainable" and fits in with the player trading narrative Ashton has spoken about.
Solely limiting ourselves to 13million losses a season means that based on our figures limits us to mid table championship at most. We saw that under Evans. Some how we have to find a way to speculate to accumulate.
Of course the problem comes if none of the players come off which I guess is where teams fall foul of FFP. I'm also not sure what the trigger point to start trading on this scale would be, maybe that occurs next season when Leif has hopefully had a good season and you are maybe looking at 8-10mill for him.
In the meantime we enhance the squad with a couple oldheads and a couple gems from League 1 and a EPL Loan or two, thereby giving a chance to those that got promoted and hoping they adapt to the Championship smoothly. |  | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 13:43 - Jun 9 with 1972 views | Churchman |
| Mike O’Leary on 08:23 - Jun 9 by ElephantintheRoom |
Simple maths if you can understand the 2x table.
£10million lost last year £10 million plus loss this year. Can you work it out now?
That’s not negative it’s the absurd reality of franchise football. I have no idea what ‘sustainable’ means in the mind of opportunists like O’Leary and I doubt he has either. He’s simply here to make money off the back of other people’s money. |
I’m not great at maths - just a humble O level, but yeah, I think I can just about manage the 2x table.
Others have responded to your abacus effort so I’ll not duplicate. Perhaps you would like to answer my question and offer something constructive?
But then again, I’m not in the mood to listen to more whining about the franchise, debt peddlers etc. I’ve my 3x table to practice so don’t bother. |  | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 13:53 - Jun 9 with 1932 views | wkj |
| Mike O’Leary on 08:23 - Jun 9 by ElephantintheRoom |
Simple maths if you can understand the 2x table.
£10million lost last year £10 million plus loss this year. Can you work it out now?
That’s not negative it’s the absurd reality of franchise football. I have no idea what ‘sustainable’ means in the mind of opportunists like O’Leary and I doubt he has either. He’s simply here to make money off the back of other people’s money. |
Well said. We should have just kept to sticking to the youth and not bothering to loan them out to League 2. By the time they come of footballing age they might have been able to do a job in our League 2 promotion push. |  |
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| Mike O’Leary on 14:01 - Jun 9 with 1903 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:32 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
Which bit of the FFP rules do you fail to grasp. We are already close to the limit with the current squad. It is only the additional £8-10m revenue from moving up a league that gives us room to invest more. The notion that the owners simply need to take more financial risk completely ignores that should they pump in more money and our losses increase significantly, then we will be sanctioned - points/transfer embargo etc. |
We will have to spend to compete. However as Ashton said. By buying players and paying over 3 years. We have the chance to purchase players at a high cost but one that can be covered over the 3 years going forwards. So the funding and input is there It's just not done upfront. That's how I understand it anyway. | |
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| Mike O’Leary on 15:02 - Jun 9 with 1814 views | BigCommon |
| Mike O’Leary on 11:32 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
Which bit of the FFP rules do you fail to grasp. We are already close to the limit with the current squad. It is only the additional £8-10m revenue from moving up a league that gives us room to invest more. The notion that the owners simply need to take more financial risk completely ignores that should they pump in more money and our losses increase significantly, then we will be sanctioned - points/transfer embargo etc. |
If the timing is right, and it leads to promotion, it won't matter.. If the timing is wrong and an overspend comes to nothing in terms of promotion, then we'd be in bother..
Risks will be taken at some point. As in all businesses. Imo, we could sail very close to the wind, at the "right" time, in order to get to the promised land. Assuming that's the goal... | | | |
| Mike O’Leary on 07:47 - Jun 10 with 1517 views | PioneerBlue |
I believe the 3 year references play into the fact that no player acquisition is taken as a hit on the P&L in any one year, only a depreciation/amort charge impacts each financial year. If we buy player A for £2m, that cost will be spread across the contract years, say 3 years, therefore only £666k cost impacting for the P&L Eg income minus costs. Fact that we have had to fund the player acquisition is a cash flow issue and balance sheet issue not P&L. If however we sell the player A going into year 3 of the contract the income from player trading assuming a it’s a profit on original cost can be taken as income in 1 year therefore providing additional funding opportunities in that year. In our new model, profit from player trading is paramount importance to avoid the owners having to convert larger than necessary losses to equity and to provide the sustainable model MOL describes. | |
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| Mike O’Leary on 12:13 - Jun 10 with 1382 views | FevsBCFC |
| Mike O’Leary on 10:32 - Jun 9 by xrayspecs |
Except we cannot do that.
FFP rules. £39m losses over three seasons before clubs are placed under sanctions.
We lost £12m in 2021/2 and likely a higher amount last year. Without adding to our squad, our losses for the season ahead (pre- extra TV money), mean we are not far off £39m cumulative over three seasons. Some of that does not count to FPP (Community, Women etc.) but will not change the story significantly.
The new TV money and increased commercial income will likely give us £10m headroom, so we cannot spend a sht load of money. This is why excellent recruitment, coaching and player trading are so vital. [Post edited 9 Jun 2023 10:36]
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Spot on….and you’re better focussing on smart recruitment (as you did much better for 22/23 than you did for 21/22) than looking for the fans expected “marquee signing” approach.
There are players out there, at good value, either on their way up where contract situation means they will be undervalued against someone with a couple of years on it, or a player who just had a dip last season. Also the right out of contract signing who fabs think is too old / past it might end up being your best signing, someone who brings that bit of nous.
If you recruit like a Luton, you’ll be well placed. If you recruit like Cardiff (last summer) then bid help you.
For all of my dislike of Ashton, your club appears to be heading the right direction. Don’t deviate now. |  | | |
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