| Could this Wagner coup 10:32 - Jun 24 with 11075 views | Bobsthename |
go to some way of ending the Russia / Ukraine conflict i’m hoping it would . |  | | |  |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:54 - Jun 24 with 1923 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:50 - Jun 24 by redrickstuhaart |
I don't agree.
No way Putin would allow himself to be shown so weak as to be spoken about that way, and to have a hostile internal force taking military bases. |
So why no action (in fact a pardon) for Prigozhin ? That makes him look even weaker. But this is the Bear and they don't do things the way we do. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 23:12 - Jun 24 with 1864 views | HARRY10 |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:54 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
So why no action (in fact a pardon) for Prigozhin ? That makes him look even weaker. But this is the Bear and they don't do things the way we do. |
You could almost imagine it was staged. All really odd, to be honest.
There seemed to be no real aim or purpose, more a tempet tantrum.
Whether it emboldens other region is Russia will have to be seen. But this was how the Soviet Union finally collapsed. Rather like watching a dam when you see one or two small areas give way, then ....whoosh, down comes the lot.
It should be noted that there was a silence from those regions. None rushing to support Putin. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 23:25 - Jun 24 with 1852 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:49 - Jun 24 by Churchman |
I’ll be amazed if he makes Bargain Hunt on Monday.
His Officers are also dead men walking. If you are Putin, you are not going to faff about. He’s got 25k volunteers for human wave duties too. Putin doesn’t do merciful or forgiveness. Dictators cannot afford any of that.
For Ukraine, now might be the time to counter attack, if they have the strength and any sort of plan. |
Indeed, if I were him I wouldn't be buying any green bananas.
Rumours Ukraine made good progress in some areas today while the focus was on the rebellion. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 23:34 - Jun 24 with 1835 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:54 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
So why no action (in fact a pardon) for Prigozhin ? That makes him look even weaker. But this is the Bear and they don't do things the way we do. |
I doubt Prigozhin's pardon is anything more than a stay of execution. Putin looks weak as it stands but not as weak as he might have done.
It appears Prigozhin expected more of the military to join his insurrection but found himself with no option but to turn around. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 09:45 - Jun 25 with 1674 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 23:34 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
I doubt Prigozhin's pardon is anything more than a stay of execution. Putin looks weak as it stands but not as weak as he might have done.
It appears Prigozhin expected more of the military to join his insurrection but found himself with no option but to turn around. |
More like a clever bluff the end result being Wagner on the Belarus/Ukraine , within striking distance of Kiev, forcing Ukraine to keep forces in reserve to defend their capital. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 09:56 - Jun 25 with 1643 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 09:45 - Jun 25 by Pinewoodblue |
More like a clever bluff the end result being Wagner on the Belarus/Ukraine , within striking distance of Kiev, forcing Ukraine to keep forces in reserve to defend their capital. |
Seems unlikely as everyone involved comes out looking weaker because of it, aside from Ukraine. And maybe Lukashenko.
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:00 - Jun 25 with 1631 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 23:12 - Jun 24 by HARRY10 |
You could almost imagine it was staged. All really odd, to be honest.
There seemed to be no real aim or purpose, more a tempet tantrum.
Whether it emboldens other region is Russia will have to be seen. But this was how the Soviet Union finally collapsed. Rather like watching a dam when you see one or two small areas give way, then ....whoosh, down comes the lot.
It should be noted that there was a silence from those regions. None rushing to support Putin. |
Heard someone say history happens gradually and then all at once the other day, or words to that effect. | | | |
| [Redacted] on 10:10 - Jun 25 with 1611 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:00 - Jun 25 by PhilTWTD |
Heard someone say history happens gradually and then all at once the other day, or words to that effect. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:12 - Jun 25 with 1604 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 09:45 - Jun 25 by Pinewoodblue |
More like a clever bluff the end result being Wagner on the Belarus/Ukraine , within striking distance of Kiev, forcing Ukraine to keep forces in reserve to defend their capital. |
I think it was on another thread that there was a brief discussion about mileages between Rostov and Moscow (my Google came up with almost seven hundred miles, more than twelve hours in a car) but I didn't realise that Rostov was south east of Ukraine until I looked more closely at the map, I had thought it was near where Voronezh is, which I now find is north east of Ukraine (so appropriate for the eight hour journey the other poster mentioned.)
Now that you point out Prigozhin is in Belarus, north west of Ukraine, I can see Wagner positioned in three strategic points that the Ukrainians have to guard against. This is going to weaken the forces they can commit to liberating Mariupol in the south. [Post edited 25 Jun 2023 10:15]
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:15 - Jun 25 with 1596 views | PhilTWTD |
Seems very unlikely that it was a sham, the language used, the shooting down of helicopters by Wagner, the concern from Putin's perspective that the army could have joined the revolt, which is assumed was Prigozhin's hope. If Russia had wanted to start a front from Belarus it could have done so a long time ago without the need to manufacture a crisis.
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:15 - Jun 25 with 1589 views | StokieBlue |
You keep saying this was all about redeployment but ignore the fact that every analyst I've seen assessing the situation disagrees with you. They all say Putin has lost too much over this and it would be ridiculous as misdirection.
They were starting to build trenches and defences at Moscow, 3 aircraft have apparently been shot down. This is too much for mere misdirection.
There is then of course the simple fact that don't need to disguise troop movements, they can move where they like and nothing is going to get past the NATO monitoring. It would only maybe have made a difference if they had immediately attacked yesterday but everything about movements would have been analysed and worked out now.
They might still end up being redeployed but if they are it's at a snails pace that isn't going to surprise NATO or the Ukrainians.
I think people still give the Russians too much credit. It's not the 1980s, they don't seem to be the masters of any games anymore, just a faded military backed up by some very big bombs.
SB |  |
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| [Redacted] on 10:17 - Jun 25 with 1578 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:15 - Jun 25 by PhilTWTD |
Seems very unlikely that it was a sham, the language used, the shooting down of helicopters by Wagner, the concern from Putin's perspective that the army could have joined the revolt, which is assumed was Prigozhin's hope. If Russia had wanted to start a front from Belarus it could have done so a long time ago without the need to manufacture a crisis.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
[Redacted] | | | |
| [Redacted] on 10:20 - Jun 25 with 1563 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:15 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
You keep saying this was all about redeployment but ignore the fact that every analyst I've seen assessing the situation disagrees with you. They all say Putin has lost too much over this and it would be ridiculous as misdirection.
They were starting to build trenches and defences at Moscow, 3 aircraft have apparently been shot down. This is too much for mere misdirection.
There is then of course the simple fact that don't need to disguise troop movements, they can move where they like and nothing is going to get past the NATO monitoring. It would only maybe have made a difference if they had immediately attacked yesterday but everything about movements would have been analysed and worked out now.
They might still end up being redeployed but if they are it's at a snails pace that isn't going to surprise NATO or the Ukrainians.
I think people still give the Russians too much credit. It's not the 1980s, they don't seem to be the masters of any games anymore, just a faded military backed up by some very big bombs.
SB |
[Redacted] | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:25 - Jun 25 with 1542 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:15 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
You keep saying this was all about redeployment but ignore the fact that every analyst I've seen assessing the situation disagrees with you. They all say Putin has lost too much over this and it would be ridiculous as misdirection.
They were starting to build trenches and defences at Moscow, 3 aircraft have apparently been shot down. This is too much for mere misdirection.
There is then of course the simple fact that don't need to disguise troop movements, they can move where they like and nothing is going to get past the NATO monitoring. It would only maybe have made a difference if they had immediately attacked yesterday but everything about movements would have been analysed and worked out now.
They might still end up being redeployed but if they are it's at a snails pace that isn't going to surprise NATO or the Ukrainians.
I think people still give the Russians too much credit. It's not the 1980s, they don't seem to be the masters of any games anymore, just a faded military backed up by some very big bombs.
SB |
The analyst on Broadcasting House this morning said that he, and everyone else, had no idea what was going on...and that seems a safe bet for now.
Whilst it is true that NATO and other agencies can monitor movements it is often as generalities rather than as specifics:
'Intelligence agencies in the United States picked up signs days ago that Prigozhin was preparing his troops to mutiny, according to reports in US media.
The Washington Post and New York Times say officials held briefings at the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest a full day before Prigozhin made his move against the Russian military leadership.
The agencies had been monitoring the situation since mid-June, the Post said.
The Times said the information was both solid and alarming by midweek, leading to the flurry of briefings.'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/25/russia-ukraine-live-news-prigo
So we don't know at the moment if Wagner troop movements at the moment are ticked off rebels going home to think their position over and be good boys in future or whether there is a strategic redeployment going on.
And we don't know how the Russian public are going to be told about, or receive, the news that 'Putin has been humiliated' as we are told in the West. By the end of the week Pravda may have made him into a new God who has crushed all resistance.... | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:35 - Jun 25 with 1513 views | StokieBlue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:25 - Jun 25 by WeWereZombies |
The analyst on Broadcasting House this morning said that he, and everyone else, had no idea what was going on...and that seems a safe bet for now.
Whilst it is true that NATO and other agencies can monitor movements it is often as generalities rather than as specifics:
'Intelligence agencies in the United States picked up signs days ago that Prigozhin was preparing his troops to mutiny, according to reports in US media.
The Washington Post and New York Times say officials held briefings at the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest a full day before Prigozhin made his move against the Russian military leadership.
The agencies had been monitoring the situation since mid-June, the Post said.
The Times said the information was both solid and alarming by midweek, leading to the flurry of briefings.'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/25/russia-ukraine-live-news-prigo
So we don't know at the moment if Wagner troop movements at the moment are ticked off rebels going home to think their position over and be good boys in future or whether there is a strategic redeployment going on.
And we don't know how the Russian public are going to be told about, or receive, the news that 'Putin has been humiliated' as we are told in the West. By the end of the week Pravda may have made him into a new God who has crushed all resistance.... |
I think it's rather impressive that the US had an idea about the mutiny before the Russians did. That only backs up my point that the would be no need for Putin to lose face in a complicated plot in order to redeploy troops, NATO are going to notice either way.
They are especially going to notice and help the Ukrainians prepare if it takes 3 days which is where we are at now. This would only seem to work as an elaborate plan if they had immediately redeployed overnight and were already striking at Kyiv.
A redeployment might happen but strategically it seems too slow for Putin to have been seen to be lacking and for actual civil and defensive measures to have been instigated in Moscow and other cities.
Sometimes things are as they seem. We clearly don't have all the information though so it's possible we will see Wagner striking from Belarus but the Ukrainians will have had time to prepare.
Guess we will see over the next days and weeks.
SB
Edit: On what he Russian public are told you are of course right that Putin can control the narrative. That will be harder given civil measures were instigated and the fact that Wagner took over the radio broadcasts in the south and broadcast him staying the war justification was nonsense. Putin will certainly be trying to control it though, Google News was taken down in Russia yesterday. [Post edited 25 Jun 2023 10:40]
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| [Redacted] on 10:40 - Jun 25 with 1502 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:35 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
I think it's rather impressive that the US had an idea about the mutiny before the Russians did. That only backs up my point that the would be no need for Putin to lose face in a complicated plot in order to redeploy troops, NATO are going to notice either way.
They are especially going to notice and help the Ukrainians prepare if it takes 3 days which is where we are at now. This would only seem to work as an elaborate plan if they had immediately redeployed overnight and were already striking at Kyiv.
A redeployment might happen but strategically it seems too slow for Putin to have been seen to be lacking and for actual civil and defensive measures to have been instigated in Moscow and other cities.
Sometimes things are as they seem. We clearly don't have all the information though so it's possible we will see Wagner striking from Belarus but the Ukrainians will have had time to prepare.
Guess we will see over the next days and weeks.
SB
Edit: On what he Russian public are told you are of course right that Putin can control the narrative. That will be harder given civil measures were instigated and the fact that Wagner took over the radio broadcasts in the south and broadcast him staying the war justification was nonsense. Putin will certainly be trying to control it though, Google News was taken down in Russia yesterday. [Post edited 25 Jun 2023 10:40]
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[Redacted] | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:43 - Jun 25 with 1487 views | StokieBlue |
That's not countering any of the points.
Enjoy the sunshine.
SB | |
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| [Redacted] on 10:49 - Jun 25 with 1466 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:43 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
That's not countering any of the points.
Enjoy the sunshine.
SB |
[Redacted] | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:54 - Jun 25 with 1453 views | J2BLUE |
Your position makes zero sense. People don't run and jump through a closed window to get into their house when they can go through the front door. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 11:04 - Jun 25 with 1423 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:54 - Jun 25 by J2BLUE |
Your position makes zero sense. People don't run and jump through a closed window to get into their house when they can go through the front door. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:07 - Jun 25 with 1415 views | StokieBlue |
But this is silly.
By your logic no position would ever require evidence because it can be backed up by the "disinformation masters" narrative.
I don't think this used to be your position, you used to want evidence to support a position.
SB | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:07 - Jun 25 with 1412 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:35 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
I think it's rather impressive that the US had an idea about the mutiny before the Russians did. That only backs up my point that the would be no need for Putin to lose face in a complicated plot in order to redeploy troops, NATO are going to notice either way.
They are especially going to notice and help the Ukrainians prepare if it takes 3 days which is where we are at now. This would only seem to work as an elaborate plan if they had immediately redeployed overnight and were already striking at Kyiv.
A redeployment might happen but strategically it seems too slow for Putin to have been seen to be lacking and for actual civil and defensive measures to have been instigated in Moscow and other cities.
Sometimes things are as they seem. We clearly don't have all the information though so it's possible we will see Wagner striking from Belarus but the Ukrainians will have had time to prepare.
Guess we will see over the next days and weeks.
SB
Edit: On what he Russian public are told you are of course right that Putin can control the narrative. That will be harder given civil measures were instigated and the fact that Wagner took over the radio broadcasts in the south and broadcast him staying the war justification was nonsense. Putin will certainly be trying to control it though, Google News was taken down in Russia yesterday. [Post edited 25 Jun 2023 10:40]
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Has it been established whether or not there was a Russian missile attack on Wagner forces that preempted this. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:09 - Jun 25 with 1400 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Could this Wagner coup on 09:45 - Jun 25 by Pinewoodblue |
More like a clever bluff the end result being Wagner on the Belarus/Ukraine , within striking distance of Kiev, forcing Ukraine to keep forces in reserve to defend their capital. |
They could have just done that anyway | | | |
| [Redacted] on 11:13 - Jun 25 with 1386 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:07 - Jun 25 by StokieBlue |
But this is silly.
By your logic no position would ever require evidence because it can be backed up by the "disinformation masters" narrative.
I don't think this used to be your position, you used to want evidence to support a position.
SB |
[Redacted] | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:19 - Jun 25 with 1366 views | J2BLUE |
I think people are buying into this 'master chess player' idea with Putin.
Putin is terrified of rebellion (Gaddafi video) and paranoid as they come (long tables in meetings etc). There seems very little chance he would do anything to tarnish his own image especially when there was a much easier way.
The Wagner fighters being welcomed into the city (however much the residents may have felt compelled to do this) will not have pleased him. It only takes one domino to fall and the situation can rapidly change.
I've seen nothing to suggest this was staged and plenty to suggest it wasn't. If it was staged, Putin would have been seen all over Moscow without any military in sight so he could project his strongman image and show confidence that they had no chance of getting anywhere near Moscow.
When the Russians were approaching Kyiv Zelensky stayed and made sure he was seen. When this lot rolled into Russia it looks like Putin immediately fled the capital. If he's trolling us, he's doing it wrong. | |
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