| Could this Wagner coup 10:32 - Jun 24 with 11082 views | Bobsthename |
go to some way of ending the Russia / Ukraine conflict i’m hoping it would . |  | | |  |
| Could this Wagner coup on 12:01 - Jun 24 with 2596 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:50 - Jun 24 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
Think this might be the point. Everyday Russian's just watching while those with weapons fight it out. |
Or not fight it out in some cases. Thought this was an interesting thread about how security services have reacted to the Wagner rebellion.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672500870947254273.html |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 12:10 - Jun 24 with 2550 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:58 - Jun 24 by brogansnose |
Despite the apparent support for the war domestically, could there be an element of the normal military that hasn't got a lot of morale and are questioning the the war given their losses , lack of materiel, poor leadership and the fact that they were told that they would be welcomed by the Ukrainians ? If so, how likely are some of them to come into conflict with Wagner ? |
Certainly that will be a factor.
Plus Wagner are tough (many of them ex-special forces), experienced, ruthless and well-armed. As an ordinary garrison military unit, perhaps understrength, ill equipped and with a load of conscripts, they may not be all that keen to take them on. Easy enough to "accidentally on purpose" let the columns slip by. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 13:01 - Jun 24 with 2505 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:42 - Jun 24 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
I think we underestimate Putin's popularity at our own risk. My son's swimming coach is Russian/Estonian and he always says that in the West we have no idea how bad things were when Putin took power. He and many others still see Putin as the saviour of Russia from the mafia and gangsterism of the Yeltsin era. |
Not so popular in Rostov, judging by this, if it's a true reflection.
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| Could this Wagner coup on 13:16 - Jun 24 with 2461 views | wkj |
I have a friend who I chat with via old gaming ties who lives about 1km from Rostov. This is a transcript from our chat this morning. It gives you an idea of how the situation is being presented internally.
U – Today at 09:48
i dunno wtf these ppl trying to do, they don't seem to cause any havoc, nor shoot civillians
they just go thru the city?
i dunno its all VERY weird
WKJ – Today at 09:44
I don't know what to say other than be safe and I guess stay in doors as much as you can?
U – Today at 09:48
ok
so from my understanding its not a civil war or anything of sorts
Vagner is basically a group of retired elites formed specifically to participate in armed conflicts on behalf of Russia without Russia getting directly involved
and now higherups want that group to get back under the main command again which would mean they won't be able to participate in nothing again and be under direct control of the government
which they dont wanna be
so now they are just marching towards moscow to settle things
they dont seem to be causing havoc or killing people, just moving
its still troubling but at least its not bloodshed yet
So internally, things seem pretty relaxed |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 13:17 - Jun 24 with 2449 views | nodge_blue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:41 - Jun 24 by RegencyBlue |
Doubt it!
This is the equivalent of the SS and the Gestapo having a spat. Wagners main complaint seems to be how the war has been conducted rather than a major problem with the invasion itself. |
Im not sure that's right after hearing the Wagner guy say about the lies for the wars pretext. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 13:23 - Jun 24 with 2427 views | pointofblue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 13:17 - Jun 24 by nodge_blue |
Im not sure that's right after hearing the Wagner guy say about the lies for the wars pretext. |
Though he was perfectly happy fighting for the Russian cause before, even if he thought Putin was lying about it. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 13:23 - Jun 24 with 2430 views | RegencyBlue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:50 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Tho it's interesting what Prigozhin said about the false basis for launching the war and how it might have been avoided. May suggest he'd look for a negotiated settlement. |
It might suit his narrative now to say that currently but I wouldn’t be hanging my hopes on him being better than Putin, given Wagners appalling record in Ukraine and elsewhere. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 18:21 - Jun 24 with 2234 views | factual_blue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:41 - Jun 24 by RegencyBlue |
Doubt it!
This is the equivalent of the SS and the Gestapo having a spat. Wagners main complaint seems to be how the war has been conducted rather than a major problem with the invasion itself. |
The better analogy would be the SS and the Wehrmacht. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 18:36 - Jun 24 with 2220 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:55 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
The more immediate impact is that Russia will struggle to get men and ammo to the fronts in Ukraine with Rostov under Wagner control. Just read something which said the effects of that will be evident in a week. It could well all collapse like a pack of cards, which had ultimately been the expectation in some quarters the longer the war progressed in any case. |
Yeah, that's what I read. Fingers crossed this is a catalyst for some rapid gains. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 19:52 - Jun 24 with 2133 views | ElephantintheRoom |
No. It gets considerably worse now. It might actually affect you - especially if you are downwind of a nuclear weapon | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 20:33 - Jun 24 with 2086 views | BlueNomad |
Well that didn’t last long! |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:37 - Jun 24 with 2065 views | BloomBlue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:33 - Jun 24 by BlueNomad |
Well that didn’t last long! |
Prigozhin was probably expecting other Russian troops to join him, but nothing happened, so he quickly did a u-turn. Putin continues as normal, although if this makes him more or less powerful who knows. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:40 - Jun 24 with 2063 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:33 - Jun 24 by BlueNomad |
Well that didn’t last long! |
I don't think it is over yet:
'John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, says it's hard to imagine the crisis in Russia will come to a halt now.
He tells the BBC it's not clear what will unfold next, but Prigozhin is not going to submit to being under the control of the Ministry of Defense.
This moment could mark a pause before an actual "clash of arms", says Herbst.
Or perhaps Putin would be willing to back away from his statements and maintain precautions, he says.'
'Michael O'Hanlon, an expert with the Brookings Institution, tells the BBC this deal "makes sense" because the situation in Russia was "extraordinarily risky" from Yevgeny Prigozhin's point of view.
"The idea that Prigozhin could somehow engender a broad-based mass revolt against Putin is really a fairly tale," O'Hanlon says.
However, it remains a "highly critical and dangerous moment" in Russia, O'Hanlon says.
Several questions also remain, including what kind of terms Prigozhin was offered and what prospects he has for staying alive, O'Hanlon says.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142 |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 20:46 - Jun 24 with 2051 views | Churchman |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:37 - Jun 24 by BloomBlue |
Prigozhin was probably expecting other Russian troops to join him, but nothing happened, so he quickly did a u-turn. Putin continues as normal, although if this makes him more or less powerful who knows. |
Prigozhin played his hand and failed. He’s dead. Just mopping up required as far as Putin is concerned.
But is the President stronger? Today internally yes of course. Tomorrow I’m not sure. He’s been challenged publicly in a state where the only message permissible is Putin’s.
Still interesting times. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:55 - Jun 24 with 2034 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:46 - Jun 24 by Churchman |
Prigozhin played his hand and failed. He’s dead. Just mopping up required as far as Putin is concerned.
But is the President stronger? Today internally yes of course. Tomorrow I’m not sure. He’s been challenged publicly in a state where the only message permissible is Putin’s.
Still interesting times. |
Does Putin have a better general than Prigozhin ? Of course everyone, including Putin, is expendable but if there is no plausible replacement then Prigozhin lives to fight another day... | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 21:20 - Jun 24 with 1986 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:55 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
Does Putin have a better general than Prigozhin ? Of course everyone, including Putin, is expendable but if there is no plausible replacement then Prigozhin lives to fight another day... |
He will fall from a window | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 21:44 - Jun 24 with 1947 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Could this Wagner coup on 21:20 - Jun 24 by redrickstuhaart |
He will fall from a window |
All very strange. If true, why has he got half way and then bottled out and agreed to leave the country. What do they have on him?! Family? | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:12 - Jun 24 with 1895 views | factual_blue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 20:40 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
I don't think it is over yet:
'John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, says it's hard to imagine the crisis in Russia will come to a halt now.
He tells the BBC it's not clear what will unfold next, but Prigozhin is not going to submit to being under the control of the Ministry of Defense.
This moment could mark a pause before an actual "clash of arms", says Herbst.
Or perhaps Putin would be willing to back away from his statements and maintain precautions, he says.'
'Michael O'Hanlon, an expert with the Brookings Institution, tells the BBC this deal "makes sense" because the situation in Russia was "extraordinarily risky" from Yevgeny Prigozhin's point of view.
"The idea that Prigozhin could somehow engender a broad-based mass revolt against Putin is really a fairly tale," O'Hanlon says.
However, it remains a "highly critical and dangerous moment" in Russia, O'Hanlon says.
Several questions also remain, including what kind of terms Prigozhin was offered and what prospects he has for staying alive, O'Hanlon says.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142 |
The terms will turn out to be meaningless. It's not unreasonable to expect Prigozhin to meet a mysterious and untimely death in the next 2-3 years. | |
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| [Redacted] on 22:33 - Jun 24 with 1864 views | victorywilhappen |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:12 - Jun 24 by factual_blue |
The terms will turn out to be meaningless. It's not unreasonable to expect Prigozhin to meet a mysterious and untimely death in the next 2-3 years. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:41 - Jun 24 with 1834 views | StokieBlue |
So this was covered by a number of analysts and none of them thought that it was true. They said the internal damage that Putin has suffered would far outweigh any redeployment which they could have just done anyway.
SB |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 22:42 - Jun 24 with 1833 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:12 - Jun 24 by factual_blue |
The terms will turn out to be meaningless. It's not unreasonable to expect Prigozhin to meet a mysterious and untimely death in the next 2-3 years. |
Years? Think that may be stretching it somewhat. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:45 - Jun 24 with 1827 views | WeWereZombies |
I think you are right, it is all very neat and tidy but Ukraine did not fall for it and go on the offensive. If Prigozhin had really been staging a mutiny Putin had all the rationale he needed to bring him in and stage a full show trial with the death sentence already decided. So what does Russia have up its sleeve for the second half, its own summer offensive or some kind of gradual withdrawal from the most heavily contested parts of Donetsk and Luhansk ? | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 22:49 - Jun 24 with 1802 views | Churchman |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:42 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
Years? Think that may be stretching it somewhat. |
I’ll be amazed if he makes Bargain Hunt on Monday.
His Officers are also dead men walking. If you are Putin, you are not going to faff about. He’s got 25k volunteers for human wave duties too. Putin doesn’t do merciful or forgiveness. Dictators cannot afford any of that.
For Ukraine, now might be the time to counter attack, if they have the strength and any sort of plan. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:50 - Jun 24 with 1798 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Could this Wagner coup on 22:45 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
I think you are right, it is all very neat and tidy but Ukraine did not fall for it and go on the offensive. If Prigozhin had really been staging a mutiny Putin had all the rationale he needed to bring him in and stage a full show trial with the death sentence already decided. So what does Russia have up its sleeve for the second half, its own summer offensive or some kind of gradual withdrawal from the most heavily contested parts of Donetsk and Luhansk ? |
I don't agree.
No way Putin would allow himself to be shown so weak as to be spoken about that way, and to have a hostile internal force taking military bases. | | | |
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