| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:13 - Jul 16 with 2914 views | Kropotkin123 |
Really? Seems like a badly written, highly speculative opinion piece. The writer says they cannot read the minds of other people, after writing an entire piece doing just that. It doesn't engage with any of the three core progress theories, suggesting why they won't transpire. |  |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:21 - Jul 16 with 2890 views | J2BLUE |
What is your opinion of what is happening? You've now posted a couple of things which make me wonder if you might be more sympathetic to Russia than most. Is that fair? |  |
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| [Redacted] on 16:30 - Jul 16 with 2859 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:21 - Jul 16 by J2BLUE |
What is your opinion of what is happening? You've now posted a couple of things which make me wonder if you might be more sympathetic to Russia than most. Is that fair? |
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| [Redacted] on 16:33 - Jul 16 with 2847 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:13 - Jul 16 by Kropotkin123 |
Really? Seems like a badly written, highly speculative opinion piece. The writer says they cannot read the minds of other people, after writing an entire piece doing just that. It doesn't engage with any of the three core progress theories, suggesting why they won't transpire. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:40 - Jul 16 with 2766 views | J2BLUE |
No offence intended. I deliberately worded it softly and made a point of asking rather than accusing. | |
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| [Redacted] on 16:53 - Jul 16 with 2692 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 16:40 - Jul 16 by J2BLUE |
No offence intended. I deliberately worded it softly and made a point of asking rather than accusing. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:01 - Jul 16 with 2650 views | J2BLUE |
Disagree with the offensive bit but happy to apologise and retract anyway. | |
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| [Redacted] on 17:05 - Jul 16 with 2638 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:01 - Jul 16 by J2BLUE |
Disagree with the offensive bit but happy to apologise and retract anyway. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:14 - Jul 16 with 2601 views | giant_stow |
Can I just make sure I understood the point the article makes: That western countries are looking for a deal to end the war, which will probably need to be quick and fairly shabby (from a Ukrainian perspective)? |  |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:20 - Jul 16 with 2571 views | Lord_Lucan |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:01 - Jul 16 by J2BLUE |
Disagree with the offensive bit but happy to apologise and retract anyway. |
Victory is a good man and has indeed much experience and knowledge of Eastern Europe, it helps that he lives in Estonia and travels all around Eastern Europe at various "Functions"
Victory is a very wise and worldy travelled man......
......although I have just read on another thread that real knowledge doesn't count and that it's probably best to wait for someones "Expert opinion" and or data that agrees with oneself and then you can give it a thumbs up whilst dismissing any other knowledge or opinion in the Universe. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 17:25 - Jul 16 with 2557 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:14 - Jul 16 by giant_stow |
Can I just make sure I understood the point the article makes: That western countries are looking for a deal to end the war, which will probably need to be quick and fairly shabby (from a Ukrainian perspective)? |
[Redacted] | | | |
| [Redacted] on 17:26 - Jul 16 with 2536 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:20 - Jul 16 by Lord_Lucan |
Victory is a good man and has indeed much experience and knowledge of Eastern Europe, it helps that he lives in Estonia and travels all around Eastern Europe at various "Functions"
Victory is a very wise and worldy travelled man......
......although I have just read on another thread that real knowledge doesn't count and that it's probably best to wait for someones "Expert opinion" and or data that agrees with oneself and then you can give it a thumbs up whilst dismissing any other knowledge or opinion in the Universe. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:37 - Jul 16 with 2492 views | J2BLUE |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:20 - Jul 16 by Lord_Lucan |
Victory is a good man and has indeed much experience and knowledge of Eastern Europe, it helps that he lives in Estonia and travels all around Eastern Europe at various "Functions"
Victory is a very wise and worldy travelled man......
......although I have just read on another thread that real knowledge doesn't count and that it's probably best to wait for someones "Expert opinion" and or data that agrees with oneself and then you can give it a thumbs up whilst dismissing any other knowledge or opinion in the Universe. |
You could have told me that last bit BEFORE I apologised... | |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:46 - Jul 16 with 2456 views | giant_stow |
Interesting thoughts and link - ta. | |
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| [Redacted] on 19:21 - Jul 16 with 2272 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 17:46 - Jul 16 by giant_stow |
Interesting thoughts and link - ta. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:23 - Jul 16 with 2260 views | Guthrum |
One of the key things is that even if Ukraine drives Russian forces back to the 1991 frontiers*, they haven't "won". Russia will not stop trying just because of a setback like that. They might pause and take a rest to build up their forces before the next go, but may not even do that. Why would they give up? The objectives have not changed and it isn't like Ukraine are going to march on Moscow to insist.
It would require a significant change of policy at the top in Moscow, which probably also entails a change of leadership. Giving up on the war without some sort of tangible victory would probably be fatal for Putin. Especially as the losses grow.
Those losses might be the thing which eventually brings him down. If he is forced to start recruiting from the more politically sensitive regions (particularly Moscow and St Petersburg), rather than keeping it to rural areas and non-Russian ethnic groups.
* Unachievable, IMO, without a significant Russian collapse of fighting spirit in the army. They might get roughly to the 2014 lines, but even that will take a long time, if at all. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 19:29 - Jul 16 with 2229 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:23 - Jul 16 by Guthrum |
One of the key things is that even if Ukraine drives Russian forces back to the 1991 frontiers*, they haven't "won". Russia will not stop trying just because of a setback like that. They might pause and take a rest to build up their forces before the next go, but may not even do that. Why would they give up? The objectives have not changed and it isn't like Ukraine are going to march on Moscow to insist.
It would require a significant change of policy at the top in Moscow, which probably also entails a change of leadership. Giving up on the war without some sort of tangible victory would probably be fatal for Putin. Especially as the losses grow.
Those losses might be the thing which eventually brings him down. If he is forced to start recruiting from the more politically sensitive regions (particularly Moscow and St Petersburg), rather than keeping it to rural areas and non-Russian ethnic groups.
* Unachievable, IMO, without a significant Russian collapse of fighting spirit in the army. They might get roughly to the 2014 lines, but even that will take a long time, if at all. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:30 - Jul 16 with 2220 views | Guthrum |
I didn't see Kyiv being offered anything concrete on membership at this stage. They're actively at war, which would rule out anything in the short (or even medium) term. Plus making definite promises on hypothetical future situations is often unwise.
Finally, there might be an issue with taking on a country which would be a drain on, rather than a contributor to, the alliance. They will be broke and require propping up militarily for some time. | |
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| [Redacted] on 19:34 - Jul 16 with 2206 views | victorywilhappen |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:30 - Jul 16 by Guthrum |
I didn't see Kyiv being offered anything concrete on membership at this stage. They're actively at war, which would rule out anything in the short (or even medium) term. Plus making definite promises on hypothetical future situations is often unwise.
Finally, there might be an issue with taking on a country which would be a drain on, rather than a contributor to, the alliance. They will be broke and require propping up militarily for some time. |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:40 - Jul 16 with 2179 views | Kropotkin123 |
There were plenty of witnesses in Vilnius giving different opinions. 2 core opinions on how unified the meeting was and the progress that was made. And 3 core ways the current military phase is going. This isn't covered. It is just one from the first section and one from the second section. This isn't truth, it is an opinion. And of those giving this type of opinion it is poorly written.
I didn't say it was propaganda. He undoubtedly does have an Agenda, as he is representing the "inner circle of Estonia". I assume that agenda would be to use what he is saying to get further commitments from key players to back Ukraine further. Estonia, after all, has given a significant amount in relation to their GDP.
It doesn't change that it is a badly written, highly speculative opinion piece. Evidenced by their own admission that that they can't guess the minds of others, but did so anyway with zero evidence.
I would describe a piece representing both sides as more honest and informed. The Telegraph's Ukrainian podcast on Thursday (if I remember correctly) did this around the 7 to 8 min mark. They then revisited the strength of Russia theories around the 30 min mark in the same episode. Way more balanced, representing the different opinions, and not looking to present one as right. | |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:43 - Jul 16 with 2172 views | Guthrum |
Indeed. Russian history has led to a different mindset in both leaders and populace.
Another generalisation, but British and Americans are used to being on the winning side. Russians have always been under attack unless there is a strongman to lead the defence (Ivan Grozny, Peter the Great, Stalin), or a hero (Alexander Nevsky, Mikhail Kutuzov). Hence they are not going to be abandoning Putin any time soon. | |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:44 - Jul 16 with 2171 views | Guthrum |
All those things having a significant negative bearing on their future entry to the EU, also. | |
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| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:54 - Jul 16 with 2132 views | HARRY10 |
A defeat for Russia will only lead to one of two things. Each a variation of te otehr
As it stands Russia will not be able to keep up at this level. With the embargo of the materials needed to keep an army in the field. There is only so much Iran and N. Korea can supply. More so when compared to the West. Russia would then face incursions by both China and India, or more likely separatist movements backed by both.
A look at pre WWI Europe and you can see the same concerns being played out. Then it was a matter of trying to keep the balance of power, while all sides believed the other was not only try to get an advantage, but were. Then the use of millions of troops meant that once started it could not be easily stopped.
The Ukrainians will have to come to the negotiating table sooner rather than later. NATO is not going to let Ukraine join whilst it has an agreement that any attack on one member is an attack on them all. There will be no 'bank cheque' as with the Kaiser in 1914.
It should also be borne in mind how many of the population of those three Baltic States consider themselves as Russian. Just as in Crimea. Russia is not going to allow Sevastopol to become a NATO base. It is absurd of Ukraine to think so, as NATO countries are well aware of.
And also well aware that it is their interest to ensure Russian is able to maintain stability on its Eastern and Southern borders, and not collapse inward as Austria-Hungary in 1914-18 leaving a power vacuum and a free for all between various ethnic groups. Too close to what modern day Russia is. |  | | |
| A good assessment of the NATO/Ukraine/ Russia situation on 19:59 - Jul 16 with 2129 views | WicklowBlue |
I'm not sure about this piece. Did anyone realistically expect NATO to give a formal invitation to Ukraine? From the outset the mood music was against this and would drag NATO into defending its newest territory. Thus amplifying tensions between the US and Russia. Russia must already be smarting from Finland joining NATO and Sweden about to join the party. Surely that is exactly against Putin's thinking for waging war on Ukraine? I.e. A NATO expansion on Russia's borders.
Alongside the above, I don't see any reference to instability in Russia itself. Was the Wagner "March on Moscow" a PR stunt? Seems like another General was relieved of his duties in the last 24 hours which has not gone down well with the troops. Of course we all seek out news that fits our narrative and I defer to people closer to the east. But I'm not sure Putin will be coming out of this war in a stronger position than before it, nor Russia imho.
It will take compromises on both sides to reach an agreement but let's not forget who caused this conflict, so that side should pay the most. |  | | |
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