| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? 09:23 - Dec 7 with 5715 views | nodge_blue |
It’s about the imminent coming technological AI wave and its sheer scale, power and level of democratised access that’s going to make the internet wave look like peanuts. It may sound like hyperbole but perhaps the next 30 years could see the biggest change in history.
I’m about half way through it now. whilst the book emphasises the ability for these AI models to essentially self learn and work through so many complex permutations to any given problem, it more than highlights the problems coming with it.
A technology that is going to be available to anyone for any malicious as well as good purpose. A technology that governments don’t really understand or can attempt to restrict. No wonder even Musk was suggesting a pause in its development.
Self learning Malwear viruses to keep evolving and exploiting all weaknesses. Robots the size of bees capable of assassinations. Deep fakes. Everything available to anyone because of the nature of how technology becomes cheaper and mass available.
I thought twice about posting this as it sounds like a negative post with just one more world problem. But I think it is and I’m finding the book harder to read as I go. There are of course good things and maybe we need AI to assess all the potential solutions to global warming and to look at patient scans to assess cancers quicker than any doctor can.
I think he’s about to suggest some measures for containment but I’m not optimistic.
I’d be interested in anyone’s else take on it if they’ve read it. |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:35 - Dec 7 with 1333 views | GavTWTD |
It's genuinely scary.
There are people in this world that love to create things, people to destroy things, and people to mend things. Putting AI in the hands of everyone will be a fight to who is best at it.
Taking malware as an example, yes AI will be able to do bad things but then you'll have protection in the form of another AI to beat it.
Not sure I want to read that book. |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:40 - Dec 7 with 1333 views | blueasfook |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:35 - Dec 7 by GavTWTD |
It's genuinely scary.
There are people in this world that love to create things, people to destroy things, and people to mend things. Putting AI in the hands of everyone will be a fight to who is best at it.
Taking malware as an example, yes AI will be able to do bad things but then you'll have protection in the form of another AI to beat it.
Not sure I want to read that book. |
Will AI be running TWTD? How will it decide who to ban?
If user = "Blueasfook" then Ban=TRUE |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:48 - Dec 7 with 1321 views | nodge_blue |
Another section he touches on is deep fakes and their increasing authenticity. They cant easily be spotted by software designed to try and weed them out either. So suddenly you could have third party nations interfering with elections just by say having Joe Biden use a racial term in a captured video. The damage can quickly be done before any chance of addressing it.
Or you could have a police / racial violence type video posted up. Just to cause rapid social unrest.
All of this is possible. And it works both ways. Firstly it can be a fake video not easily disproved or it can become a very easy get out excuse for real perpetuators. We really entering an era when we shouldn't rely on any social media type stories as being true.
An analysis by Carnegie Mellon (whoever they are) found at the height of the pandemic in the US, 82 percent of influential user tweets demanding the reopening of the country, were bots. Probably Russian, designed to intensify the health crisis. AI is going to make these bots more autonomous and automated in a scale that anyone can do them rather than just Russian disinformation factories. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:51 - Dec 7 with 1313 views | DarkBrandon |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:48 - Dec 7 by nodge_blue |
Another section he touches on is deep fakes and their increasing authenticity. They cant easily be spotted by software designed to try and weed them out either. So suddenly you could have third party nations interfering with elections just by say having Joe Biden use a racial term in a captured video. The damage can quickly be done before any chance of addressing it.
Or you could have a police / racial violence type video posted up. Just to cause rapid social unrest.
All of this is possible. And it works both ways. Firstly it can be a fake video not easily disproved or it can become a very easy get out excuse for real perpetuators. We really entering an era when we shouldn't rely on any social media type stories as being true.
An analysis by Carnegie Mellon (whoever they are) found at the height of the pandemic in the US, 82 percent of influential user tweets demanding the reopening of the country, were bots. Probably Russian, designed to intensify the health crisis. AI is going to make these bots more autonomous and automated in a scale that anyone can do them rather than just Russian disinformation factories. |
There are examples of it at the moment. More than one fake has been created about Starmer saying/doing something he didn’t do. They circulated in right wing accounts.
On that case a couple of Tory MPs pointed out they weren’t true, but come election time we could be flooded with this stuff. |  | | |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:51 - Dec 7 with 1312 views | vilanovablue |
Whilst I would argue that there have been advances in AI a Iot of this is actually overplayed in my eyes. I don't think we at the point of what I would consider deep learning AI. Whilst that might be closer than I realise things such as chat GPT whilst being incredibly smart at answering complex questions with a lot of detail in the answer a lot of that is regurgitating information rather than true AI. |  | | |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:52 - Dec 7 with 1309 views | nodge_blue |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:35 - Dec 7 by GavTWTD |
It's genuinely scary.
There are people in this world that love to create things, people to destroy things, and people to mend things. Putting AI in the hands of everyone will be a fight to who is best at it.
Taking malware as an example, yes AI will be able to do bad things but then you'll have protection in the form of another AI to beat it.
Not sure I want to read that book. |
Sadly the premise if that is the AI keeps evolving to exploit a weakness and only through that do you identify it and possibly resolve it. So the attack comes first. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:53 - Dec 7 with 1305 views | DarkBrandon |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:51 - Dec 7 by vilanovablue |
Whilst I would argue that there have been advances in AI a Iot of this is actually overplayed in my eyes. I don't think we at the point of what I would consider deep learning AI. Whilst that might be closer than I realise things such as chat GPT whilst being incredibly smart at answering complex questions with a lot of detail in the answer a lot of that is regurgitating information rather than true AI. |
It isn’t regurgitating information though.
If chatGPT is asked to write a function in a particular computer language, it doesn’t scan the web looking for the code and then regurgitate it. Which is what normal search engines do.
It creates it from scratch.
Same for “write a song about Roses in the style of Leonard Cohen” | | | |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:59 - Dec 7 with 1299 views | Illinoisblue |
Was there similar reaction to the coming of the internet 40 years ago? “It will take over, it will do our jobs… etc.” ?
Maybe AI will just end up being what the internet is: 80% porn, 19% misinformation, 1% useful stuff |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:04 - Dec 7 with 1294 views | DarkBrandon |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:59 - Dec 7 by Illinoisblue |
Was there similar reaction to the coming of the internet 40 years ago? “It will take over, it will do our jobs… etc.” ?
Maybe AI will just end up being what the internet is: 80% porn, 19% misinformation, 1% useful stuff |
They’ve had to add “don’t generate child porn” code already.
Artificially generated porn featuring people you like/don’t like is also fairly grim | | | |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:08 - Dec 7 with 1282 views | NthQldITFC |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:40 - Dec 7 by blueasfook |
Will AI be running TWTD? How will it decide who to ban?
If user = "Blueasfook" then Ban=TRUE |
You'll be alright dude, the servers will run on Linux so will be case sensitive. Though in your case...  |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:09 - Dec 7 with 1279 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 11:01 - Dec 7 by blueasfook |
Humanity is becoming too smart for its own good. We seem to be hell-bent on developing technologies to destroy ourselves. Nuclear weapons, deadly viruses, artificial intelligence, robots. I'd agree that AI has the potential to become our number one existential threat. I don't know if we will ever get to some kind of SkyNet scenario where the AI becomes self-aware and decides to wipe out humanity. My worry is more it will lead to mass poverty and a pretty miserable existence for humans as we will have no work to do and little opportunity to make money. Therefore no income, and we will be reliant on some kind of basic support. |
The hope is a Universal Basic Income will be introduced, let the robots do all the work and humans have all the fun! |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:14 - Dec 7 with 1277 views | blueasfook |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:09 - Dec 7 by The_Flashing_Smile |
The hope is a Universal Basic Income will be introduced, let the robots do all the work and humans have all the fun! |
I must say I could get used to living a life of leisure but would the basic income be enough for one to have a good lifestyle? Maybe we would all be like bosses with armies of robots working for us? The more robots you have out there doing stuff for you, the more you make. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:17 - Dec 7 with 1270 views | blueasfook |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:08 - Dec 7 by NthQldITFC |
You'll be alright dude, the servers will run on Linux so will be case sensitive. Though in your case... |
It's OK I will still have my 25 other logins :D | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:21 - Dec 7 with 1266 views | NthQldITFC |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:48 - Dec 7 by nodge_blue |
Another section he touches on is deep fakes and their increasing authenticity. They cant easily be spotted by software designed to try and weed them out either. So suddenly you could have third party nations interfering with elections just by say having Joe Biden use a racial term in a captured video. The damage can quickly be done before any chance of addressing it.
Or you could have a police / racial violence type video posted up. Just to cause rapid social unrest.
All of this is possible. And it works both ways. Firstly it can be a fake video not easily disproved or it can become a very easy get out excuse for real perpetuators. We really entering an era when we shouldn't rely on any social media type stories as being true.
An analysis by Carnegie Mellon (whoever they are) found at the height of the pandemic in the US, 82 percent of influential user tweets demanding the reopening of the country, were bots. Probably Russian, designed to intensify the health crisis. AI is going to make these bots more autonomous and automated in a scale that anyone can do them rather than just Russian disinformation factories. |
That's the one that is immediately the most worrying to me. I remember seeing some Obama ones a few years ago which were already pretty good to the casual observer, though undoubtedly easy to spot for experts or counter-AI software.
But shamelessly dishonest attacks on truth are already de rigueur in the political and business arenas, and that dogged denial of the blindingly obvious seems to me to filter down to the deceitful and manipulative among us in day-to-day social interactions.
It's going to come down to what platforms you trust (until they are tricked and lose your faith) and then we're back in the dark ages where the only way you'll be able to be confident that what you're seeing is real, is to go down to the village green and see it for yourself. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:22 - Dec 7 with 1261 views | vilanovablue |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:53 - Dec 7 by DarkBrandon |
It isn’t regurgitating information though.
If chatGPT is asked to write a function in a particular computer language, it doesn’t scan the web looking for the code and then regurgitate it. Which is what normal search engines do.
It creates it from scratch.
Same for “write a song about Roses in the style of Leonard Cohen” |
It is using large language modelling to produce its answer, it doesn't think per se or at least it doesn't think in the way a human does.
https://bigthink.com/the-future/artificial-general-intelligence-true-ai/
This article explains it better than I can :) | | | |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:36 - Dec 7 with 1245 views | GavTWTD |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:40 - Dec 7 by blueasfook |
Will AI be running TWTD? How will it decide who to ban?
If user = "Blueasfook" then Ban=TRUE |
We'll definately have some form of AI, probably based on the number of downvotes a post(er) has. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:38 - Dec 7 with 1240 views | DanTheMan |
To add onto this, a very simple way of thinking about is this.
Imagine the world's smartest parrot had read the whole internet. When you ask it something, it just keeps thinking "Based on what I've read, what would the next best word be?" and then it goes on from there.
This is a massive oversimplification but that's the gist of how they work.
Now, if we ever get to a generalised intelligence (which is looking possible) then we get into some very tricky ethical issues and it would be probably the biggest thing we've ever achieved as humans, essentially creating new life. |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 16:07 - Dec 7 with 1220 views | nodge_blue |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 12:05 - Dec 7 by DarkBrandon |
The book covers most of these arguments.
The reason why nuclear proliferation hasn’t really got out of hand is that it is both hugely difficult and hugely expensive to develop weapons. Sure, international treaties help, but the analogy doesn’t really work.
I’m much less convinced by the “it’ll develop sentience and destroy us” argument.
I’m pretty terrified by how easy it will be/is for some nutter with a credit card and a pc to engineer a virus that could kill billions [Post edited 7 Dec 2023 12:06]
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Exactly this. There is no way to control something that we dont understand how its working in the first place. See my quote on the other post. We literally dont understand how the granular level of the network is now working.
And lets face it you cant legislate at a world level to stop its development. Some large country or company will continue its development in whatever way they chose. And layered onto that is that AI is starting to work in ways we dont understand or can control or predict its outcomes. | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 16:42 - Dec 7 with 1188 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
No, but I have watched "I, Robot"!
As with all technology, it will have benefits and drawbacks. The good will only be a good as the original human intelligence behind it manages to make it. The bad will only be as bad as those intent on harm can manage. There will be some scaremongering and probably some horrendous consequences. However, will any horrendous consequence be any worse than humans intent on evil are already perpetrating? Time will tell, I guess. I hope someone thinks through the implications of AI and the nuclear launch codes! |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 16:54 - Dec 7 with 1178 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
Simple, ask AI how to stop AI taking over and killing us all. If it's clever enough to destroy us it ought to be clever enough to work that out too.
Glad that's sorted, everyone relax. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 17:56 - Dec 7 with 1126 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 15:36 - Dec 7 by GavTWTD |
We'll definately have some form of AI, probably based on the number of downvotes a post(er) has. |
As long as it definitely considers spelling ability too! | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 18:24 - Dec 7 with 1109 views | Trequartista |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 14:51 - Dec 7 by DarkBrandon |
There are examples of it at the moment. More than one fake has been created about Starmer saying/doing something he didn’t do. They circulated in right wing accounts.
On that case a couple of Tory MPs pointed out they weren’t true, but come election time we could be flooded with this stuff. |
Yes I saw the deepfake of Starmer praising Mrs Thatcher. No way a leader of the Labour Party would say that in real life. They need to try harder. |  |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 19:08 - Dec 7 with 1069 views | JohnTy |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 16:54 - Dec 7 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Simple, ask AI how to stop AI taking over and killing us all. If it's clever enough to destroy us it ought to be clever enough to work that out too.
Glad that's sorted, everyone relax. |
What is AI: "a poor choice of words in 1954"
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 19:12 - Dec 7 with 1056 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 16:54 - Dec 7 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Simple, ask AI how to stop AI taking over and killing us all. If it's clever enough to destroy us it ought to be clever enough to work that out too.
Glad that's sorted, everyone relax. |
If it's that clever, though, it is clever enough to throw you off its own scent too! | |
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| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 19:19 - Dec 7 with 1045 views | NthQldITFC |
| Has anyone read the coming wave by Mustafa Suleyman? on 19:12 - Dec 7 by Nthsuffolkblue |
If it's that clever, though, it is clever enough to throw you off its own scent too! |
That's what it wants you to think. | |
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