| Righto, I've done the Math 13:33 - Apr 15 with 3359 views | itfc_bucks |
(as our American overlords would say)
It's a little complicated, but bear with me on this.
We're currently top of the table, with three to play.
If we win our last three fixtures, we go up and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.
Glad I could help! |  | | |  |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:02 - Apr 15 with 609 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 14:59 - Apr 15 by _clive_baker_ |
Yeah, not to mention personal accolades (Armstrong is 4 behind Szmodics currently in the top scorer list). I think there's so many variables that it all becomes a bit irrelevant. Ultimately the sides around us dropping points is a good thing IMO, them winning isn't. Only when they play each other might there then be a preference. |
And they could well end up playing Leeds in the play offs too, so it's a chance to get in their heads with a win.
So many variables as you say. As you can see, I'm not thinking about them at all! | | | |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:05 - Apr 15 with 609 views | dirtyboy |
Try predicting those last games and you're a fool.
I think we might get through with 1 win and two draws, but we might need 3 wins. Or 2 wins and 1 draw, or 2 wins and a loss.....
see what I mean |  | | |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:11 - Apr 15 with 575 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:00 - Apr 15 by Illinoisblue |
But if they get 4 pts from Boro and QPR away (not unlikely) before we play at Hull that ramps up the pressure on us to get a result at Hull. If we only draw that we’re a point behind but way behind on goal difference.
Oooof, winning v either Watford or Boro would have made life much less stressful. |
I'd take that. 2 points behind and 1 win against either Hull or Coventry puts the last day completely in our hands. | | | |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:15 - Apr 15 with 567 views | Illinoisblue |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:00 - Apr 15 by Kievthegreat |
Yeah got my fixtures muddled. Preston tomorrow, Cardiff on Saturday then Leicester next Tuesday. |
I am 51 years old and just put together a spreadsheet of the remaining games for the top four, max points and possible league placings after every game.
This is normal, right? |  |
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| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:29 - Apr 15 with 538 views | Europablue |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 14:42 - Apr 15 by NedPlimpton |
Would it? A Saints defeat would pretty much see them back out of contention for the autos
I think I'd rather they won tomorrow night to give them something to play for against Leicester and Leeds. Ideally they'd go on to beat Leicester and draw with Leeds on the last day of the season |
That is a very nerve-racking scenario! | | | |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:31 - Apr 15 with 536 views | SomethingBlue |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:00 - Apr 15 by Illinoisblue |
But if they get 4 pts from Boro and QPR away (not unlikely) before we play at Hull that ramps up the pressure on us to get a result at Hull. If we only draw that we’re a point behind but way behind on goal difference.
Oooof, winning v either Watford or Boro would have made life much less stressful. |
It would give us a second life at Coventry tho if we slipped up at Hull ... I think it'd verge on being decisive. | |
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| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:40 - Apr 15 with 514 views | Illinoisblue |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:31 - Apr 15 by SomethingBlue |
It would give us a second life at Coventry tho if we slipped up at Hull ... I think it'd verge on being decisive. |
True. And ideally Coventry can beat Man Utd and be even more distracted when they play us. God this is absurd trying to guess the twists and turns, isn’t it? By next Tuesday night things should be somewhat clearer and hopefully trending favorably to us.
The encouraging thing is that KM has two weeks to plot and plan and prepare us. That is a comforting thought . | |
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| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:41 - Apr 15 with 505 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 13:52 - Apr 15 by Illinoisblue |
I’m looking for a scenario where we get 4 pts from 3 games and still go up |
If everything went our way it is actually possible for us to be promoted after winning the Hull game
Would require Leeds to get max 1 point from Boro (A) and QPR (A)
And would also require Southampton to get max 7 points from Preston (H), Cardiff (A), Leicester (A), and Stoke (H)
Would leave us 4 points ahead of both with them only having 1 game left each
No need to only focus on the nightmare scenarios is my point! | | | |
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| Here's the bookies math on 15:57 - Apr 15 with 475 views | NthQldITFC |
| Here's the bookies math on 14:01 - Apr 15 by unstableblue |
Sky Bet Championship title | automatic promotion odds (via Sky Bet)
Leicester - 8/15 | 1/9
Ipswich - 10/3 | 8/15
Leeds - 6/1 | 11/10
Southampton - 25/1 | 9/1
Leicester still clear favourites for automatic
Saints still outsiders
We have better odds than Leeds for automatic
We are effectively 3 to 1 on for title, Leeds 6 to 1 |
3 to 1, not 3 to 1 on.
But it's all good. WGSKM, HKEWWN |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Righto, I've done the Math on 17:09 - Apr 15 with 433 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 15:11 - Apr 15 by tractorboy1978 |
I'd take that. 2 points behind and 1 win against either Hull or Coventry puts the last day completely in our hands. |
I think I would too. If you offered me Leeds taking 4 points from their next 2, I would probably take it. That's not to say they can't fare worse than that, but 1 in the hand and all that. If we find ourselves 2 points behind them with 2 games in hand then that feels OK to me, I think we can do 1 of Hull or Cov. The difference between Leeds taking 6 points and anything less than 6 points is huge. |  | | |
| Here's the bookies math on 17:12 - Apr 15 with 422 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Here's the bookies math on 15:57 - Apr 15 by NthQldITFC |
3 to 1, not 3 to 1 on.
But it's all good. WGSKM, HKEWWN |
WATB, CIA
TAGWTFL | | | |
| Agreed on 17:13 - Apr 15 with 422 views | Dyland |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 17:09 - Apr 15 by _clive_baker_ |
I think I would too. If you offered me Leeds taking 4 points from their next 2, I would probably take it. That's not to say they can't fare worse than that, but 1 in the hand and all that. If we find ourselves 2 points behind them with 2 games in hand then that feels OK to me, I think we can do 1 of Hull or Cov. The difference between Leeds taking 6 points and anything less than 6 points is huge. |
Obviously it would be ridiculously hilarious if they got 2,1 or nul points from their two games before we next play, but yeh, 4 points is still absolutely massive for us. |  |
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| At this stage their playing at home may be a disadvantage on 17:17 - Apr 15 with 412 views | Dyland |
| Righto, I've done the Math on 14:26 - Apr 15 by DanTheMan |
I keep forgetting that Leicester's run-in isn't much fun either.
West Brom, Southampton, Preston and Blackburn.
Some tough ol' games in there. Shame three of them are at home but still. |
Such is the duality of the football fan :) | |
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