| The Expected Goals Premier League Table 14:31 - Oct 28 with 5351 views | itfc_statman |
If you hate stats, look away now.
I figure there may be some who look into data in more detail, and use that to assess the performance or to compare vs our eyes. Our eyes are often biased, data isn't.
For those who don't really know about the Expected Goals stat and how it works, this article gives a really good simplistic overview:
https://learning.coachesvoice.com/cv/expected-goals-xg-explained/
The table doesn't make good reading but we can use it to see where we need to improve moving forwards and if there is improvement, we should be able to confirm what we see with our eyes with this sort of data.
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:37 - Oct 28 with 4684 views | Linners |
More importantly (OK, probably not) Bournemouth's crowds are a joke. Can't wait for them to get back to L1 where they belong. |  | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:47 - Oct 28 with 4589 views | Illinoisblue |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:37 - Oct 28 by Linners |
More importantly (OK, probably not) Bournemouth's crowds are a joke. Can't wait for them to get back to L1 where they belong. |
They’ve been in that crap 10k stadium for a LONG time; should be like non-league and have strict minimum requirements for ground size and facilities. Relegate them now, seems a fair solution.
I did see them spending millions on a fancy new training complex. They have money. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:57 - Oct 28 with 4512 views | positivity |
may not be understanding it fully, but it's not miles away from our actual for & against, we've let in one more goal than expected. does this suggest muric isn't doing as badly as some think?
soton on the other hand are miles off their xGF, if only they'd bought delap! [Post edited 28 Oct 2024 15:22]
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:01 - Oct 28 with 4482 views | _clive_baker_ |
Not a big fan of XG as a measure but can't say I'm too surprised at this given our actual GD is -11, and it would be a stretch to say the scorelines have been unjust so far on balance. Especially away from home, we obviously let in 4 at City, West Ham and Brentford, and while I haven't seen the XG for those games, 4 goals didn't really flatter any of them tbh. Brighton was 0-0, but we rode our luck and I'd be staggered if their XG wasn't a goal or 2 better than ours. 1-1 at Southampton was about right on the eyeball test, again not sure what XG would tell you.
Everton aside I think we've been better at home. We were every bit as good as Fulham and Villa on the days and deserved the draws. Liverpool doesn't really count does it.
Everton is probably the most disappointing performance of the season, especially with it being at home. I do think they're a better side than the league table suggests but we gave away properly crap goals and created next to nothing after Clarke's chance and the penalty mugging by VAR. |  | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:10 - Oct 28 with 4429 views | GlasgowBlue |
We've still outscored 4 other teams including Manchester United. Saturday was a very positive move in the right direction in terms of our attacking play. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:27 - Oct 28 with 4344 views | itfc_statman |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:57 - Oct 28 by positivity |
may not be understanding it fully, but it's not miles away from our actual for & against, we've let in one more goal than expected. does this suggest muric isn't doing as badly as some think?
soton on the other hand are miles off their xGF, if only they'd bought delap! [Post edited 28 Oct 2024 15:22]
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The Muric situation is pretty relevant. He's been one of those goalkeepers who's made some very good saves (where the xG score was quite high, i.e likely to be a goal) and then of course made silly mistakes to invite simple goals. It's probably relatively evened itself out so far! | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:30 - Oct 28 with 4305 views | itfc_statman |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:10 - Oct 28 by GlasgowBlue |
We've still outscored 4 other teams including Manchester United. Saturday was a very positive move in the right direction in terms of our attacking play. |
Yes, we have outscored United by one goal but they've created double the amount of xG than us, so suspect to see them climb the table! | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:37 - Oct 28 with 4265 views | ronnyd |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:37 - Oct 28 by Linners |
More importantly (OK, probably not) Bournemouth's crowds are a joke. Can't wait for them to get back to L1 where they belong. |
Brentford ain't much better i see. | | | |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:47 - Oct 28 with 4181 views | Deano69 |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:47 - Oct 28 by Illinoisblue |
They’ve been in that crap 10k stadium for a LONG time; should be like non-league and have strict minimum requirements for ground size and facilities. Relegate them now, seems a fair solution.
I did see them spending millions on a fancy new training complex. They have money. |
How on earth are they able to comply with the same stipulations on us (3000 away fans, acres of press areas etc etc etc) |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:55 - Oct 28 with 4113 views | StNeotsBlue |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:47 - Oct 28 by Deano69 |
How on earth are they able to comply with the same stipulations on us (3000 away fans, acres of press areas etc etc etc) |
They don't need to, it's 3000 allocation for away fans or 10% of capacity. |  | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:58 - Oct 28 with 4090 views | The_Realist_09 |
Was looking at this recently, doesn't make good viewing.
I do think a change of approach away from home has the potential to change this somewhat, but I'm not sure Mckenna will change his principles now.
It's a tough decision to make for him, keep going with what he and team believes in and hope we can improve enough in time to get enough points, or to change the approach slightly after so long of having a clear identity. | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:12 - Oct 28 with 4007 views | Dubtractor |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:01 - Oct 28 by _clive_baker_ |
Not a big fan of XG as a measure but can't say I'm too surprised at this given our actual GD is -11, and it would be a stretch to say the scorelines have been unjust so far on balance. Especially away from home, we obviously let in 4 at City, West Ham and Brentford, and while I haven't seen the XG for those games, 4 goals didn't really flatter any of them tbh. Brighton was 0-0, but we rode our luck and I'd be staggered if their XG wasn't a goal or 2 better than ours. 1-1 at Southampton was about right on the eyeball test, again not sure what XG would tell you.
Everton aside I think we've been better at home. We were every bit as good as Fulham and Villa on the days and deserved the draws. Liverpool doesn't really count does it.
Everton is probably the most disappointing performance of the season, especially with it being at home. I do think they're a better side than the league table suggests but we gave away properly crap goals and created next to nothing after Clarke's chance and the penalty mugging by VAR. |
Saturday was the first time we've really gone 'toe to toe' with an established Premier league team. Southampton was even, but they're sh1t, and we were very second best in the other 3 games, even if we got a point at Brighton.
I'd expect our net xg in away games is bad.
But home games have been a different proposition for the most part, and no one would have said we'd robbed it if we won against Fulham or Villa.
I guess the summary of that, is that we need to massively tighten up away from home, or we'll be letting in 4 goals a few more times. Getting the first choice defence back will be a big part of that. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:20 - Oct 28 with 3940 views | HighgateBlue |
Yes, a neutral would look at this and expect Ipswich's struggles to increase, given that our actual goal difference is better than the xGD.
This, coupled with all the other team stats (a number of which were listed on MOTD), shows that we can't keep on in denial, making excuses about our tricky start. Obviously scoring 3 away from home is lovely, but just to focus on that is real head-in-the-sand stuff. We conceded 10 goals in 3 games in October, and only scored 4. This is relegation form, big time. All it was going to take was for Palace to win eventually, and we would inevitably be in the bottom 3, and that is precisely what has happened.
If it were Joe Royle conceding this number of goals, he would be criticised as tactically naive. Just because KMac is perceived as a modern coach and a real student of the game (quite rightly) shouldn't mean that he is immune to scrutiny, or that he has licence to be this tactically inflexible. We were very close to Leicester last season, and this season we really aren't, despite having recruited much more proactively. That has got to be a valid performance yardstick.
We need to start winning games. If we haven't won by the end of November, that will be a little over a third of the season gone. You can't go 13 games without a win and expect to stay up. If it's been done in a 38 game season, I'd be amazed.
Forest won 3 of their first 11 last season, and I don't believe a team has stayed up with fewer points (than their 32). Indeed, the very worst Premier League season ever was that time Derby got 11 points. They won in their first 8 games.
People said that the Everton game was huge. What about this Leicester game then? I almost daren't look. |  | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:36 - Oct 28 with 3871 views | Radlett_blue |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:10 - Oct 28 by GlasgowBlue |
We've still outscored 4 other teams including Manchester United. Saturday was a very positive move in the right direction in terms of our attacking play. |
Yes, but our defending was again well below par, not just Muric's howler for the winning goal. We've had injuries, but we must learn quickly to defend better or it's hard to see us winning many games. We look particularly vulnerable when midfield runners break through. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:39 - Oct 28 with 3862 views | itfc_statman |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:20 - Oct 28 by HighgateBlue |
Yes, a neutral would look at this and expect Ipswich's struggles to increase, given that our actual goal difference is better than the xGD.
This, coupled with all the other team stats (a number of which were listed on MOTD), shows that we can't keep on in denial, making excuses about our tricky start. Obviously scoring 3 away from home is lovely, but just to focus on that is real head-in-the-sand stuff. We conceded 10 goals in 3 games in October, and only scored 4. This is relegation form, big time. All it was going to take was for Palace to win eventually, and we would inevitably be in the bottom 3, and that is precisely what has happened.
If it were Joe Royle conceding this number of goals, he would be criticised as tactically naive. Just because KMac is perceived as a modern coach and a real student of the game (quite rightly) shouldn't mean that he is immune to scrutiny, or that he has licence to be this tactically inflexible. We were very close to Leicester last season, and this season we really aren't, despite having recruited much more proactively. That has got to be a valid performance yardstick.
We need to start winning games. If we haven't won by the end of November, that will be a little over a third of the season gone. You can't go 13 games without a win and expect to stay up. If it's been done in a 38 game season, I'd be amazed.
Forest won 3 of their first 11 last season, and I don't believe a team has stayed up with fewer points (than their 32). Indeed, the very worst Premier League season ever was that time Derby got 11 points. They won in their first 8 games.
People said that the Everton game was huge. What about this Leicester game then? I almost daren't look. |
Good news re Leicester is they're as close as it gets to us in the xGD table and by all accounts are a bit fortunate to have 2 wins to their name.
I think it's a game we are capable of getting that first win in but we must first of all be much more solid defensively, both in initial shape and how we deal with turnovers.
Whilst on the stats front we are currently performing worse than the worst recent teams to grace the prem (Sheffield United, West Brom, Norwich, Huddersfield) I do think we have a genuinely talented coach (who is capable of adjusting to improve us, contrary to what we've seen so far this season) as well as a genuine goalscorer.
It's a horrible comparison but it's probably not too different to Norwich' first season in the prem with Pukki - promotion a little unexpected but a genuine goalscorer and a relatively talented coach, but in their case the coach wouldn't adjust principles enough and ultimately they failed miserably. I think McKenna has more about him | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:39 - Oct 28 with 3861 views | GreenEye |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:10 - Oct 28 by GlasgowBlue |
We've still outscored 4 other teams including Manchester United. Saturday was a very positive move in the right direction in terms of our attacking play. |
Yep. Based on last weekend, we're joint top in XG in open play.
Let's see where it is come Christmas | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:50 - Oct 28 with 3803 views | Radlett_blue |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:39 - Oct 28 by itfc_statman |
Good news re Leicester is they're as close as it gets to us in the xGD table and by all accounts are a bit fortunate to have 2 wins to their name.
I think it's a game we are capable of getting that first win in but we must first of all be much more solid defensively, both in initial shape and how we deal with turnovers.
Whilst on the stats front we are currently performing worse than the worst recent teams to grace the prem (Sheffield United, West Brom, Norwich, Huddersfield) I do think we have a genuinely talented coach (who is capable of adjusting to improve us, contrary to what we've seen so far this season) as well as a genuine goalscorer.
It's a horrible comparison but it's probably not too different to Norwich' first season in the prem with Pukki - promotion a little unexpected but a genuine goalscorer and a relatively talented coach, but in their case the coach wouldn't adjust principles enough and ultimately they failed miserably. I think McKenna has more about him |
We're really not looking like winning games & I think we look defensively naive. Big test for McKenna as if we limp through the season winning 5 or so games, his stock will fall considerably.
Yes, Southampton look little better but I expect Wolves & Palace to recover so we need a big improvement. | |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:53 - Oct 28 with 3794 views | Blue_In_Boston |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 14:47 - Oct 28 by Illinoisblue |
They’ve been in that crap 10k stadium for a LONG time; should be like non-league and have strict minimum requirements for ground size and facilities. Relegate them now, seems a fair solution.
I did see them spending millions on a fancy new training complex. They have money. |
Appreciate the relegate them now may have been tongue in cheek, but ground size should have nothing to do with what level you play out. They obviously have the appropriate facilities, look how we had to adapt over the summer.
Bournemouth, like it or not, give hope to other clubs of that size. | | | |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:54 - Oct 28 with 3778 views | Deano69 |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 15:55 - Oct 28 by StNeotsBlue |
They don't need to, it's 3000 allocation for away fans or 10% of capacity. |
Ahh, figures | |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:59 - Oct 28 with 3762 views | LankHenners |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:36 - Oct 28 by Radlett_blue |
Yes, but our defending was again well below par, not just Muric's howler for the winning goal. We've had injuries, but we must learn quickly to defend better or it's hard to see us winning many games. We look particularly vulnerable when midfield runners break through. |
My concern is that we become this season's Luton in a way - very capable of scoring goals and play well enough in enough games to feel like we deserve a shot at staying up but ultimately concede too many and give a lot of those goals away poorly. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 17:30 - Oct 28 with 3637 views | FrimleyBlue |
It's another reason you'd think we need to find a way perhaps of getting delap and Hirst playing together.
Not 4 4 2 that wouldn't work nowadays. But something.
You've got a proper forward with a striker combo. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 21:39 - Oct 29 with 2997 views | itfc_statman |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:50 - Oct 28 by Radlett_blue |
We're really not looking like winning games & I think we look defensively naive. Big test for McKenna as if we limp through the season winning 5 or so games, his stock will fall considerably.
Yes, Southampton look little better but I expect Wolves & Palace to recover so we need a big improvement. |
I think Southampton and Leicester look as similarly bad. That's not surprising, it's so hard to compete upon promotion now and even Leicester who had a few prem players already are finding it difficult. | | | |
| Is it a tactical problem? on 08:30 - Oct 30 with 2691 views | Dyland |
| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 16:20 - Oct 28 by HighgateBlue |
Yes, a neutral would look at this and expect Ipswich's struggles to increase, given that our actual goal difference is better than the xGD.
This, coupled with all the other team stats (a number of which were listed on MOTD), shows that we can't keep on in denial, making excuses about our tricky start. Obviously scoring 3 away from home is lovely, but just to focus on that is real head-in-the-sand stuff. We conceded 10 goals in 3 games in October, and only scored 4. This is relegation form, big time. All it was going to take was for Palace to win eventually, and we would inevitably be in the bottom 3, and that is precisely what has happened.
If it were Joe Royle conceding this number of goals, he would be criticised as tactically naive. Just because KMac is perceived as a modern coach and a real student of the game (quite rightly) shouldn't mean that he is immune to scrutiny, or that he has licence to be this tactically inflexible. We were very close to Leicester last season, and this season we really aren't, despite having recruited much more proactively. That has got to be a valid performance yardstick.
We need to start winning games. If we haven't won by the end of November, that will be a little over a third of the season gone. You can't go 13 games without a win and expect to stay up. If it's been done in a 38 game season, I'd be amazed.
Forest won 3 of their first 11 last season, and I don't believe a team has stayed up with fewer points (than their 32). Indeed, the very worst Premier League season ever was that time Derby got 11 points. They won in their first 8 games.
People said that the Everton game was huge. What about this Leicester game then? I almost daren't look. |
Now I'm as prone to fookwittery as the next fan, but I'm seeing lots of individual errors rather than a general tactical issue, exacerbated by the sudden loss of Tuanzebe followed quickly by Greaves. They're our standout defenders and imo O'Shea is nowhere near either in quality. Our squad suddenly looks nowhere near good enough for the long hard slog. It shouldn't really be that surprising we're struggling. It's a mixture of bad luck and stone cold reality re our sudden rise under McKenna. |  |
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| The Expected Goals Premier League Table on 08:41 - Oct 30 with 2651 views | RobTheMonk |
I think it's taken us too long to get Szmodics starting regularly. The guy gets goals. |  | | |
| Is it a tactical problem? on 09:44 - Oct 30 with 2534 views | Radlett_blue |
| Is it a tactical problem? on 08:30 - Oct 30 by Dyland |
Now I'm as prone to fookwittery as the next fan, but I'm seeing lots of individual errors rather than a general tactical issue, exacerbated by the sudden loss of Tuanzebe followed quickly by Greaves. They're our standout defenders and imo O'Shea is nowhere near either in quality. Our squad suddenly looks nowhere near good enough for the long hard slog. It shouldn't really be that surprising we're struggling. It's a mixture of bad luck and stone cold reality re our sudden rise under McKenna. |
£23m for O'Shea & Muric. Burnley must be laughing all the way to the bank. | |
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