| Crazy to think 11:28 - Feb 8 with 1489 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Middlesbrough beating Coventry in their game next week would put promotion back in our hands. Obviously very long way to go yet but who’d have thought it more likely at this point we catch Coventry than Middlesbrough?
5 wins in 14 for Coventry and no away win for them in 7! |  |
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| Crazy to think on 11:30 - Feb 8 with 1462 views | _CliveBaker_ |
It’s already in our hands. |  | | |
| Crazy to think on 11:32 - Feb 8 with 1415 views | Garv |
For me all it really shows is how incredibly good they were for the 1st third of the season. They're in what some people are calling a crisis (not sure it's that bad) and they're still top with 12 more goals scored than the next best. |  |
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| Crazy to think on 11:41 - Feb 8 with 1343 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Crazy to think on 11:32 - Feb 8 by Garv |
For me all it really shows is how incredibly good they were for the 1st third of the season. They're in what some people are calling a crisis (not sure it's that bad) and they're still top with 12 more goals scored than the next best. |
Even the GD stats shows how imbalanced their season is though, and how much of a downturn they've soon.
GD after 10 games +20
GD in the 20 games since then +6 |  | | |
| Crazy to think on 11:46 - Feb 8 with 1280 views | Zx1988 |
| Crazy to think on 11:30 - Feb 8 by _CliveBaker_ |
It’s already in our hands. |
Win all our games, and we overhaul the loser of Cov v Boro, or Coventry if they draw and we score enough goals? | |
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| Crazy to think on 12:12 - Feb 8 with 1130 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Crazy to think on 11:46 - Feb 8 by Zx1988 |
Win all our games, and we overhaul the loser of Cov v Boro, or Coventry if they draw and we score enough goals? |
We don’t need GD. If they draw then we overtake Boro by winning our games, as we still have them to play.
Unless I’m mistaken it’s mathematically impossible for us to not be top 2 if we win our games. [Post edited 8 Feb 12:16]
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| Crazy to think on 12:55 - Feb 8 with 933 views | Zx1988 |
| Crazy to think on 12:12 - Feb 8 by _CliveBaker_ |
We don’t need GD. If they draw then we overtake Boro by winning our games, as we still have them to play.
Unless I’m mistaken it’s mathematically impossible for us to not be top 2 if we win our games. [Post edited 8 Feb 12:16]
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If everyone wins their game in hand, the top three becomes as follows after 31 games:
1) MID - p31, 61pts, +19 (minimum)
2) COV - p31, 59pts, +28
3) IPS - p31, 57pts, +23 (minimum)
If we put Boro v Coventry to one side, and all three win their remaining 14/15 games (with Town beating Boro) it becomes:
1) IPS - p46, 102pts, +38 (minimum)
2) COV - p45, 101pts, +42 (minimum)
3) MID - p45, 100pts, +31 (minimum)
So yes, you're right. Town can still only guarantee a second-placed finish, it it's in our hands. | |
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| Crazy to think on 12:57 - Feb 8 with 910 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Crazy to think on 12:12 - Feb 8 by _CliveBaker_ |
We don’t need GD. If they draw then we overtake Boro by winning our games, as we still have them to play.
Unless I’m mistaken it’s mathematically impossible for us to not be top 2 if we win our games. [Post edited 8 Feb 12:16]
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Coventry win all their games they finish on 104 points
Boro win all their games they finish on 106 points
Ipswich win all our games we finish on 102 points
However both Cov and Boro play each other. If Cov win they are on target for 104 points and Boro 103 points. If Boro win then they are on target for 106 points. A draw and Cov on target for 102 and Boro 104. But for Ipswich to finish on 102 then we have to beat Boro which takes them down to either 103, 101 or 100 depending on the result against Cov.
So the long and the short of it is a win for Cov against Boro and we win all our games we beat Boro by 1 point. A win for Boro against Cov and we beat Cov by one point. A draw between Cov and Boro and we finish on level points with Cov so we need to make up six goals on them by the end of the season.
So not quite in our own hands. And now my head hurts. |  |
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| Crazy to think on 14:47 - Feb 8 with 672 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I did say it back in November that it surprised me that some EFL podcasters and analysts basically declared Cov had one of the spots. I didn’t foresee a drop off quite like this but the likelihood of them keeping anywhere near that kind form up was very low. They don’t have a parachute squad, far from it, teams will play different against you second half of the season and there will always be an element of pressure thrown into the mix of a grind of a season.
Now it’s Boro that everyone have declared as the best team in the league after 5 wins in a row, they’ll for sure have a bad patch as well at some point again.
They’ll be loads of weeks left yet everyone suddenly thinks the direction has all changed. Hull were suddenly the team in the conversation last week, a few days later it’s Millwall!
I said last week after the 1-1, 2PPG or just over will do it.
If we can navigate the next two away league games with 4 or more points I’m pretty sure we will be second or top going into the Millwall at later in March. [Post edited 8 Feb 14:51]
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| Crazy to think on 14:52 - Feb 8 with 627 views | peterleeblue |
| Crazy to think on 14:47 - Feb 8 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I did say it back in November that it surprised me that some EFL podcasters and analysts basically declared Cov had one of the spots. I didn’t foresee a drop off quite like this but the likelihood of them keeping anywhere near that kind form up was very low. They don’t have a parachute squad, far from it, teams will play different against you second half of the season and there will always be an element of pressure thrown into the mix of a grind of a season.
Now it’s Boro that everyone have declared as the best team in the league after 5 wins in a row, they’ll for sure have a bad patch as well at some point again.
They’ll be loads of weeks left yet everyone suddenly thinks the direction has all changed. Hull were suddenly the team in the conversation last week, a few days later it’s Millwall!
I said last week after the 1-1, 2PPG or just over will do it.
If we can navigate the next two away league games with 4 or more points I’m pretty sure we will be second or top going into the Millwall at later in March. [Post edited 8 Feb 14:51]
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What's really positive is that apart from the first few weeks we haven't had a bad patch. One too many draws perhaps. |  | | |
| Crazy to think on 14:56 - Feb 8 with 597 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Crazy to think on 14:52 - Feb 8 by peterleeblue |
What's really positive is that apart from the first few weeks we haven't had a bad patch. One too many draws perhaps. |
We are top of the form table since September 1. Those first 4 games has seen us constantly playing catch up. | |
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| Crazy to think on 15:00 - Feb 8 with 550 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Crazy to think on 14:52 - Feb 8 by peterleeblue |
What's really positive is that apart from the first few weeks we haven't had a bad patch. One too many draws perhaps. |
1 point in 6 spooked people, combined with the end of the window which is understandable. Preston was still a horrible result but now 4 points out of 9 in that 3 game stretch is the apparently the mini wobble. So you’re right, since the bad start of the season, consistency has been better than the overall narrative. Even if we haven’t often gone on a complete tear too often. | |
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| Crazy to think on 15:11 - Feb 8 with 494 views | gainsboroughblue |
Don't want to think too much about it but I'm really keeping my eye on that 6th position. I think the top 5 will be as is in terms of the clubs there but not necessarily the order. If we finish outside the top two, I can't see it being below 3rd. |  |
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| Crazy to think on 15:23 - Feb 8 with 445 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Crazy to think on 12:55 - Feb 8 by Zx1988 |
If everyone wins their game in hand, the top three becomes as follows after 31 games:
1) MID - p31, 61pts, +19 (minimum)
2) COV - p31, 59pts, +28
3) IPS - p31, 57pts, +23 (minimum)
If we put Boro v Coventry to one side, and all three win their remaining 14/15 games (with Town beating Boro) it becomes:
1) IPS - p46, 102pts, +38 (minimum)
2) COV - p45, 101pts, +42 (minimum)
3) MID - p45, 100pts, +31 (minimum)
So yes, you're right. Town can still only guarantee a second-placed finish, it it's in our hands. |
Mathematically correct. None of those teams will win all of their matches either, so whichever team comes closest to doing so will go up (albeit with the nuance that Boro winning against us and Coventry means they can afford to slip up against others).
It is definitely very much in the hands of each of the teams involved. |  |
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| Crazy to think on 16:22 - Feb 8 with 282 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Crazy to think on 12:57 - Feb 8 by GlasgowBlue |
Coventry win all their games they finish on 104 points
Boro win all their games they finish on 106 points
Ipswich win all our games we finish on 102 points
However both Cov and Boro play each other. If Cov win they are on target for 104 points and Boro 103 points. If Boro win then they are on target for 106 points. A draw and Cov on target for 102 and Boro 104. But for Ipswich to finish on 102 then we have to beat Boro which takes them down to either 103, 101 or 100 depending on the result against Cov.
So the long and the short of it is a win for Cov against Boro and we win all our games we beat Boro by 1 point. A win for Boro against Cov and we beat Cov by one point. A draw between Cov and Boro and we finish on level points with Cov so we need to make up six goals on them by the end of the season.
So not quite in our own hands. And now my head hurts. |
Isn’t that the definition of in our own hands though?
If we win our games it’s mathematically impossible to not be in the top 2. Boro and Cov can equally argue the same, | | | |
| Crazy to think on 16:33 - Feb 8 with 202 views | Denny32 |
Sheffield to beat boro tomorrow and either a draw or boro bear cov would be ideal outcome | | | |
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