Forum | Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed by unstableblue

Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed 19:28 - Mar 16 with 1671 views

Can afford to lose a couple. Pick up a draw. Or there abouts.

It’s business time.

A win Saturday would be colossal.

Can we find that gear now!

Some toughies in there, none more so than Naaaarwich away.

Remaining Fixtures - Rivals/Town - refreshed - GET IN by unstableblue 14 Mar 18:23
Now that is a game week! Given Bristol form and Millwall form, well that is a major boost for Town’s auto chances. Proper home wobble from Boro.

Next week huge ahead of international break.

As for Hillsborough - well done McKenna and the boys. Think many thought you just turn up at Hillsborough and get given a 4 goal win. Not the case. HUGE!

TABLE
Cov PL 38 GD +38 PTS 77
Boro PL 38 GD +22 PTS 70
Town PL 37 GD +28 PTS 68
Millw PL 38 GD +9 PTS 68

MILLWALL
March 2026
Sat 14 Mar: Blackburn (h) - LOST 1-2

Sat 21 Mar: Ipswich Town (a) - 12:30

April 2026
Fri 3 Apr: Middlesbrough (a) - 12.30
Mon 6 Apr: Norwich City (h) - 13:00
Sat 11 Apr: West Bromwich Albion (a) -15:00
Sat 18 Apr: QPR (h) - 15:00
Tue 21 Apr: Stoke City (a) - 19:45
Sat 25 Apr: Leicester City (a) - 15:00

May 2026
Sat 2 May: Oxford United (h) - 12:30

BORO
March 2026
14 Mar: Bristol City (H) – DREW 1-1

21 Mar: Blackburn Rovers (A) – 12:30

April 2026
03 Apr: Millwall (H) – 12:30
06 Apr: Swansea City (A) – 17:30
11 Apr: Portsmouth (H) – 15:00
18 Apr: Ipswich Town (A) – 15:00
21 Apr: Sheffield Wednesday (H) – 19:45
25 Apr: Watford (H) – 15:00

May 2026
02 May: Wrexham (A)

BLUE ARMY
March 2026
14 Mar: Sheffield Wednesday (A) – WON 0-2
21 Mar: Millwall (H) – 12:30

April 2026
06 Apr: Birmingham City (H) – 15:00
11 Apr: Norwich City (A) – 12:30
14 Apr: Portsmouth (A) - 19:45
18 Apr: Middlesbrough (H) – 15:00
22 Apr: Charlton Athletic (A) – 19:45
25 Apr: West Bromwich Albion (A) – 15:00
28 Apr: Southampton (A) – 19:45

May 2026
02 May: Queens Park Rangers (H) – 12:30

Poll:

What music should be played just before kick-off?

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:13 - Mar 16 with 1515 views

Guthrum

We can only afford to drop points if Boro and Millwall do. It's that tight.

Fortunately, we have a hand in their results. A win on Saturday and on 18th April would be vastly important, holding them back in moving us forward. Even a draw will maintain the status quo (which is in our favour - if we can win the game against Portsmouth). A loss would leave us relying upon others to do the damage.

	Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll:	McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog:	[Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:17 - Mar 16 with 1482 views

ElderGrizzly

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:13 - Mar 16 by Guthrum
We can only afford to drop points if Boro and Millwall do. It's that tight. Fortunately, we have a hand in their results. A win on Saturday and on 18th April would be vastly important, holding them back in moving us forward. Even a draw will maintain the status quo (which is in our favour - if we can win the game against Portsmouth). A loss would leave us relying upon others to do the damage.

Winning the two against Boro and Millwall feels like a necessity if we want any wriggle room

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:26 - Mar 16 with 1438 views

SuffolkPunchFC

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:17 - Mar 16 by ElderGrizzly
Winning the two against Boro and Millwall feels like a necessity if we want any wriggle room

Beating them would be ideal, although if win our game in hand, and match their results we just need to draw with Boro and can lose to Millwall. Still better to beat them to build a buffer, and gain confidence but this just goes to show how many variables there are, and twists & turns to come.

Best option is to win all our remaining games, which might even see us as champions even if Coventry continue at 2PPG

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:51 - Mar 16 with 1306 views

Bigalhunter

How can you possibly assert that eighteen or a maximum of nineteen points will see us automatically promoted?

Genuinely like to see the sums behind that declaration….

	Blub……March 2026 (WhatsApp Group)
Poll:	September 2025. Which one?

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 21:03 - Mar 16 with 1258 views

unstableblue

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:51 - Mar 16 by Bigalhunter
How can you possibly assert that eighteen or a maximum of nineteen points will see us automatically promoted? Genuinely like to see the sums behind that declaration….

I prompted the feck out of ChatGPT asked it to look at a load of parameters and scenarios and the conclusion:

My prediction: automatic promotion threshold
Likely needed for 2nd place:
➡️ 87–88 points
Safe target
89 points guarantees it almost every time
Risky edge
85–86 could sneak it if rivals collapse.
✅ My final estimate:
87 points is the realistic promotion line for 2nd place this season.

There was also a thread on the Boro forum that also had a consensus of 87!

Poll:

What music should be played just before kick-off?

-2

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 21:18 - Mar 16 with 1181 views

Axeldalai_lama

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:51 - Mar 16 by Bigalhunter
How can you possibly assert that eighteen or a maximum of nineteen points will see us automatically promoted? Genuinely like to see the sums behind that declaration….

My head hurts after attempting to make it work, which it doesn't! I assume it's more based on us beating both Boro and Millwall and our game in hand, but it still doesn't stack up.
Still though, best both and we'd be getting very very close.

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 21:35 - Mar 16 with 1110 views

Ftnfwest

Well I’ve written off Nodge for any points tbh

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 21:37 - Mar 16 with 1113 views

SuffolkPunchFC

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:51 - Mar 16 by Bigalhunter
How can you possibly assert that eighteen or a maximum of nineteen points will see us automatically promoted? Genuinely like to see the sums behind that declaration….

For about 6 weeks a variety of trend analysis have suggested that 87 is about where it’s going to end. I posted this last week, and that was in reference to various calculations posted since late January.

23 points from last 11 played, 11 games to go by SuffolkPunchFC 8 Mar 9:48
87 +/-1 has looked like the required target for a while. It will be squeaky bum time though.

Nothing has really changed, although if two of the teams in places 2-6 go on a great run, it could still be much higher. It could even be lower ….

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 22:05 - Mar 16 with 1010 views

Vaughan8

You've got to beat the teams around you.

We need to beat Millwall and Middlesbrough and then we probably can afford a few lost points elsewhere.

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 22:11 - Mar 16 with 983 views

Smoresy

I cropped the form table a series of times to see what table-topping form normally looks like over 8 games, given that's how many our rivals have left. 18-19 points was the norm, with a range of 16-21 from my inputs. Most recently Cov claimed 19 points, Wall 18, Boro 12. Cov's best at any stage is 21, Boro's 19, Wall's 19.

So it's probable that one or more (of the 24) will win 6+ of their remaining 8 games. Four teams have just done so, which is unusually high (Cov & Wall were two of those). Will it be Boro's turn? Odds on it won't be, but the above does focus the mind somewhat. Last year, Burnley took 22, Leeds 20, Swans 17. Season before, our year, everyone slowed down with 16 the best showing. 22/23: 20, 18, 17. 21/22: 19, 19, 18.

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 22:15 - Mar 16 with 960 views

BlueBadger

TWENTY SEVEN POINTS, TWENTY SEVEN GOALS

	I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Poll:	How will About Anglia/Look East spin this?
Blog:	From Despair to Where?

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 06:42 - Mar 17 with 670 views

Blue_Heath

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 20:13 - Mar 16 by Guthrum
We can only afford to drop points if Boro and Millwall do. It's that tight. Fortunately, we have a hand in their results. A win on Saturday and on 18th April would be vastly important, holding them back in moving us forward. Even a draw will maintain the status quo (which is in our favour - if we can win the game against Portsmouth). A loss would leave us relying upon others to do the damage.

Very true, would love a win at Carrot Rud that could be the Sarmiento moment, unite everybody and give us momentum to get over the line.

Poll:

How many team changes tonight?

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 07:26 - Mar 17 with 571 views

Len_Brennan

If we're good enough & deserve to be promoted automatically, we will be.
If we're not & we don't, we won't be.

Poll:

If we go up, which new striker would you like us to sign?

Crazy to think - 9 games left, 6 wins needed on 07:48 - Mar 17 with 516 views

OldFart71

Almost impossible to predict the outcome. Ourselves, Coventry, Boro, Millwall and Hull have all lost or drawn games they theoretically should have won and no doubt that will happen in the coming games.
No team we or them play is a guaranteed three points.
Those we all play in the top 8 or 9 who are in with a chance of a playoff place will want the points. Those around us will want second place minimum and those fighting to save themselves or even as we saw a team like Wednesday aren't a roll over.

Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread