| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table 11:48 - Apr 15 with 2207 views | Guthrum |
By special request of Cafe_Newman, following a loss. 
Shows we still have a fair bit of leeway. Southampton's form is 4 wins, our represents 3 wins, a draw and one loss.
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 with 2158 views | hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:52 - Apr 15 with 2134 views | BouncebackIpswich |
Interesting this. If we assume the loss and the draw is Southampton and West Brom, Sunday is now essentially a must win game. Pressure piled back on after last night, even getting a 0-0 would have made a huge amount of difference.
It's not even as simple as saying we can draw Vs Southampton and then they drop points because Millwall have 4 games where they're clear favourites and can finish on 85 themselves. |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:52 - Apr 15 with 2123 views | Herbivore |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 by hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |
I know it's hard to see it after a performance like last night but we're well capable of winning every game we have left. I can see us winning any of them, though not sure I can see us winning all of them as we're still prone to throwing in a bad half or, in the case of last night, a bad game. |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:53 - Apr 15 with 2125 views | Guthrum |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 by hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |
Boro. Do them at PR like we did Cov. It's not as if their confidence is very high. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:57 - Apr 15 with 2066 views | Guthrum |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:52 - Apr 15 by BouncebackIpswich |
Interesting this. If we assume the loss and the draw is Southampton and West Brom, Sunday is now essentially a must win game. Pressure piled back on after last night, even getting a 0-0 would have made a huge amount of difference.
It's not even as simple as saying we can draw Vs Southampton and then they drop points because Millwall have 4 games where they're clear favourites and can finish on 85 themselves. |
Millwall's form doesn't say they're nailed on to win all four. As we well know, Stoke on a Tuesday night is not an easy place to go (likely to be cold, too). | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:07 - Apr 15 with 1990 views | BouncebackIpswich |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:57 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
Millwall's form doesn't say they're nailed on to win all four. As we well know, Stoke on a Tuesday night is not an easy place to go (likely to be cold, too). |
Yeah, I hear you totally and that seems to be the general consensus, however form does turn, and they've shown throughout the season they're capable of winning runs.
I think they choked a bit when they hit second and now the pressures off because they probably need to win all 4 and are underdogs, that's where Millwall thrive.
I'm really concerned they're going to sneak in and get second whilst us and Soton are focusing on each other. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:37 - Apr 15 with 1894 views | Smoresy |
A somewhat comforting image after last night, cheers for producing, but imo we're much closer to "knife-edge territory" than "fair bit of leeway".
Win against Boro and I'd concur. Lose and there's a fair chance we'd need 10 points from 4 games, with three of those on the road, one against the best team in the league.
Our previous string of results when we've had majority away games:
Swansea to Coventry: A3 H1 A3 A0 A1 H3
Leicester to Coventry: A0 H3 A1 A3
Sheff Utd to Swansea: A0 H1 A3 A0 A3 H3
So 10 points from our last 4 would be a personal best for us, majority away, and can you trust Southampton to blink? Exciting times for Sunday!
*If we draw against Boro, 9 points from those 4 would be a joint personal best. [Post edited 15 Apr 13:17]
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:47 - Apr 15 with 1842 views | Ewan_Oozami |
Southampton shown as having a better GD than us and still finishing 1 point behind? In that case our games really will be nail chewing events! |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:54 - Apr 15 with 1793 views | jas0999 |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 by hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |
Middlesbrough. Woefully out of form. We’re at home. [Post edited 15 Apr 12:55]
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:01 - Apr 15 with 1736 views | MattinLondon |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:54 - Apr 15 by jas0999 |
Middlesbrough. Woefully out of form. We’re at home. [Post edited 15 Apr 12:55]
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And I think they have a couple injuries as well. |  | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:15 - Apr 15 with 1629 views | Cafe_Newman |
Not exactly fair, but well played.
If I may, as this one wasn't exactly solicited, can I place an order for a new table on Monday IF we don't win again this weekend? |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:29 - Apr 15 with 1563 views | Cafe_Newman |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:52 - Apr 15 by BouncebackIpswich |
Interesting this. If we assume the loss and the draw is Southampton and West Brom, Sunday is now essentially a must win game. Pressure piled back on after last night, even getting a 0-0 would have made a huge amount of difference.
It's not even as simple as saying we can draw Vs Southampton and then they drop points because Millwall have 4 games where they're clear favourites and can finish on 85 themselves. |
On this forum alone KMcK is called everything from a genius to a one-trick pony.
One skill which he is not normally credited with however, is his ability to lose to bottom 8 clubs yet beat top 8 clubs - this is far better in terms of league position than the opposite.
The point I'm making is, if you've been paying attention, it's far more probable to assume the loss and draw will be against Charlton and West Brom than Southampton or Middlesborough and our must win game will be against QPR on the final day of the season.
#SqueakyBumTime | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:36 - Apr 15 with 1488 views | Guthrum |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:15 - Apr 15 by Cafe_Newman |
Not exactly fair, but well played.
If I may, as this one wasn't exactly solicited, can I place an order for a new table on Monday IF we don't win again this weekend? |
Just gently ribbing.
I probably will do a couple more, but it becomes pretty meaningless when there's only a game or two left (as is the case too soon after the halfway mark). There's a golden window from about late Feb to mid April when it's interesting to look at meduim-term trends without merely mirroring the first half of the season, or the sample size becoming too small. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:38 - Apr 15 with 1473 views | Guthrum |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:29 - Apr 15 by Cafe_Newman |
On this forum alone KMcK is called everything from a genius to a one-trick pony.
One skill which he is not normally credited with however, is his ability to lose to bottom 8 clubs yet beat top 8 clubs - this is far better in terms of league position than the opposite.
The point I'm making is, if you've been paying attention, it's far more probable to assume the loss and draw will be against Charlton and West Brom than Southampton or Middlesborough and our must win game will be against QPR on the final day of the season.
#SqueakyBumTime |
Hence beating in-form Norwich and losing to struggling Portsmouth. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:38 - Apr 15 with 1471 views | baxterbasics |
Ugh far too close for comfort. Really was hoping we'd be wrapped up before QPR but it seems not.
Agree with others that given how the season has gone, we are more likely to struggle vs Charlton and West Brom than we are against Saints and 'boro! |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 14:47 - Apr 15 with 1304 views | Cafe_Newman |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:38 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
Hence beating in-form Norwich and losing to struggling Portsmouth. |
And that goal difference between us and Saints adds extra squeakiness to the bum time! | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:24 - Apr 15 with 1034 views | StokieBlue |
Different methodology (Poisson based on attack and defence strengths and then implied xG).
Has the teams in exactly the same order but slightly different points:
I would absolutely take 4 points over Saints at the moment but it looks far too optimistic to me.
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:27 - Apr 16 with 707 views | ericclacton |
Saints will take second spot
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 15:57 - Apr 16 with 505 views | noggin |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:54 - Apr 15 by jas0999 |
Middlesbrough. Woefully out of form. We’re at home. [Post edited 15 Apr 12:55]
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What could possibly go wrong? |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 16:11 - Apr 16 with 468 views | positivity |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 by hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |
try imagining you're a boro fan and how you'd feel about a trip to portman road (least home losses, least home goals against, unbeaten in 15 home games)
would you see it as a simple win/draw? | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 18:56 - Apr 16 with 339 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:50 - Apr 15 by hype313 |
I can see wins against Charlton and QPR but I'm struggling after that. |
For me this demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of who we have struggled against this season. I'm most nervous going to Charlton, followed by West Brom. I think we are more likely to beat Boro, Southampton and QPR.
Away from home against 15-24 our record is: 1 w, 3 d, 4 l.
Consequently, I'm nervous about playing away to Charlton (also our only home loss) and West Brom.
This record projects 1.5 points (2 rounded) (1-2 ranged)
Against the 1-12, at home our record is 4w, 5d.
Consequently, I think we are likely to pick up 4 points against Boro and QPR
This record projects 3.5 points (4 rounded) (3-4 ranged)
Againt the 1-12, away from home, our record is 6 w, 2d, 2d.
Consequently, a win is most likely.
This record projects 2 points (3 rounded) (1-3 ranged)
Suggests we'll get 9 points from our remain games, with a range of 5-9 points. Crucially our previous form suggests we'll take points off Boro and Southampton, but we'll rely on Millwall dropping points in one game to go up automatically.
We have typically struggled against teams that sit behind the ball, play a low block, have the home crowd behind them, and get physical. We have typically done well against teams that try to bring the game to us, or at home. |  |
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