| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried 09:48 - Jun 17 with 2090 views | Zx1988 |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/art
To be honest I hadn't realised how much of a sure thing the bookies are making of this one. The best odds seem to be as follows:
Labour - 1/5
Reform - 11/2
Restore - 28/1
All others - >1,000/1
I'm expecting it to be a closer fight than the bookies think. Or is it the case that the presence (and growing popularity) of Restore is probably going to split the vote enough in Labour's favour, alongside no small amount of tactical voting by Green/Lib Dem supporters? |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 09:57 - Jun 17 with 1704 views | Kievthegreat |
I'm reasonable confident that Burnham wins the by-election.Main factors:
- Tactical voting is much easier in a clear two-horse race and the centre/left are more willing to do it. The Lib Dems and Greens will vote Labour to keep Reform out, far more than Tory and Restore will vote to get Reform in.
- Restore will bleed Reform of critical votes. I think Restore may even finish 3rd in the race.
- The clown that Reform selected has a back catalogue of dodgy social media and general scummy-ness that will sink him with enough swing voters. |  | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:05 - Jun 17 with 1664 views | Zx1988 |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 09:57 - Jun 17 by Kievthegreat |
I'm reasonable confident that Burnham wins the by-election.Main factors:
- Tactical voting is much easier in a clear two-horse race and the centre/left are more willing to do it. The Lib Dems and Greens will vote Labour to keep Reform out, far more than Tory and Restore will vote to get Reform in.
- Restore will bleed Reform of critical votes. I think Restore may even finish 3rd in the race.
- The clown that Reform selected has a back catalogue of dodgy social media and general scummy-ness that will sink him with enough swing voters. |
I do wonder if Restore will do even more damage to Reform's chances in the longer term?
They'll either steal from them their extreme right voters, or Reform will lurch ever further to the right (as we've seen in the last week or so) in order to try and retain said voters, which may well serve to alienate the softer side of their support, who have more in common with the Tories than Restore. | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:10 - Jun 17 with 1643 views | positivity |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 09:57 - Jun 17 by Kievthegreat |
I'm reasonable confident that Burnham wins the by-election.Main factors:
- Tactical voting is much easier in a clear two-horse race and the centre/left are more willing to do it. The Lib Dems and Greens will vote Labour to keep Reform out, far more than Tory and Restore will vote to get Reform in.
- Restore will bleed Reform of critical votes. I think Restore may even finish 3rd in the race.
- The clown that Reform selected has a back catalogue of dodgy social media and general scummy-ness that will sink him with enough swing voters. |
which direction will tory voters go in?
polls indicating 1-3% support for the conservatives, suggests they are voting tactically, but do they hate labour or reform more? | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:13 - Jun 17 with 1626 views | BlueBadger |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:10 - Jun 17 by positivity |
which direction will tory voters go in?
polls indicating 1-3% support for the conservatives, suggests they are voting tactically, but do they hate labour or reform more? |
Definitely Labour. |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:13 - Jun 17 with 1627 views | Blueschev |
My fear is that, as with Brexit, people may use their vote to give the "political elite" a kicking as they feel they are being taken for granted. |  | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:16 - Jun 17 with 1607 views | Zx1988 |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:13 - Jun 17 by Blueschev |
My fear is that, as with Brexit, people may use their vote to give the "political elite" a kicking as they feel they are being taken for granted. |
It seems as if it's all going to come down to how well Führage can persuade his target audience not to vote for Restore. | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:17 - Jun 17 with 1598 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 09:57 - Jun 17 by Kievthegreat |
I'm reasonable confident that Burnham wins the by-election.Main factors:
- Tactical voting is much easier in a clear two-horse race and the centre/left are more willing to do it. The Lib Dems and Greens will vote Labour to keep Reform out, far more than Tory and Restore will vote to get Reform in.
- Restore will bleed Reform of critical votes. I think Restore may even finish 3rd in the race.
- The clown that Reform selected has a back catalogue of dodgy social media and general scummy-ness that will sink him with enough swing voters. |
Burnham will win. For the reasons you have given. Reform candidates don't stand up to any public scrutiny when they are in the country's media spotlight.
They can wing it in council and general elections but not by elections. |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:19 - Jun 17 with 1587 views | positivity |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:13 - Jun 17 by BlueBadger |
Definitely Labour. |
any tory voters here to back that up? think it'd be much closer with active politicians than the voters! | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:35 - Jun 17 with 1508 views | BlueBadger |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:16 - Jun 17 by Zx1988 |
It seems as if it's all going to come down to how well Führage can persuade his target audience not to vote for Restore. |
'Vote for us, we're backed by Russians, religious loons and billionaires rather than nazis, Russians and billionaires'. [Post edited 17 Jun 11:22]
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:45 - Jun 17 with 1471 views | homer_123 |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:35 - Jun 17 by BlueBadger |
'Vote for us, we're backed by Russians, religious loons and billionaires rather than nazis, Russians and billionaires'. [Post edited 17 Jun 11:22]
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You've sold them to me Badge! |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 11:16 - Jun 17 with 1338 views | Wacko |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 09:57 - Jun 17 by Kievthegreat |
I'm reasonable confident that Burnham wins the by-election.Main factors:
- Tactical voting is much easier in a clear two-horse race and the centre/left are more willing to do it. The Lib Dems and Greens will vote Labour to keep Reform out, far more than Tory and Restore will vote to get Reform in.
- Restore will bleed Reform of critical votes. I think Restore may even finish 3rd in the race.
- The clown that Reform selected has a back catalogue of dodgy social media and general scummy-ness that will sink him with enough swing voters. |
Also it may seem frivolous but I think the fact that Makerfield residents could potentially have a PM as their MP could swing a lot of minds. Would make their little corner of UK feel special | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 11:31 - Jun 17 with 1273 views | Kievthegreat |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 10:05 - Jun 17 by Zx1988 |
I do wonder if Restore will do even more damage to Reform's chances in the longer term?
They'll either steal from them their extreme right voters, or Reform will lurch ever further to the right (as we've seen in the last week or so) in order to try and retain said voters, which may well serve to alienate the softer side of their support, who have more in common with the Tories than Restore. |
Reform's biggest weakness is that it's very difficult for them to get much more support than their peak in 2025. There is about 60% of the electorate who massively dislike Reform and Farage and probably would never vote for him/them under any circumstances. That's workable because in a fractured FPTP system, 30-35% could potentially return a supermajority.
However if Restore start peeling off the edges, then Reform see that weakness get even more critical as they would no longer have a monopoly on the far right. They could end up in a conundrum like the Tories and Labour before them. If you try to move your party more towards one direction, you lose people at the other end of your coalition. If Reform start peeling away to Restore or chase them and scare people back to the Tories, then suddenly expected Reform gains from Tories become toss-ups and this absurd electoral situation get's even weirder.
Given how hard Musk is interfering and pushing Restore, I think it's a massive concern for Reform and Farage. | | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 11:45 - Jun 17 with 1227 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 11:16 - Jun 17 by Wacko |
Also it may seem frivolous but I think the fact that Makerfield residents could potentially have a PM as their MP could swing a lot of minds. Would make their little corner of UK feel special |
I don't think this is frivolous, I think it's spot on. In General Elections and referendums people might like to give the political elite a kicking, because they feel they aren't being heard. In this by-election many residents will feel they have the ear of the top man in government (and as you say, general feelings of being special). It's the complete opposite; they'll feel like they're at the centre of power.
People early on said (well on here at least) that this was politically risky by Burnham, but I never thought it was. I actually thought it was pretty clever. It LOOKS risky - like if Reform win it fecks him and Labour - but in reality a combination of liking him, what he's done, and having the PM as their local MP will sway enough.
He then becomes the first big Labour figure to stick one on Reform, thus aiding his leadership challenge. |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 12:54 - Jun 17 with 1075 views | MVBlue |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 11:31 - Jun 17 by Kievthegreat |
Reform's biggest weakness is that it's very difficult for them to get much more support than their peak in 2025. There is about 60% of the electorate who massively dislike Reform and Farage and probably would never vote for him/them under any circumstances. That's workable because in a fractured FPTP system, 30-35% could potentially return a supermajority.
However if Restore start peeling off the edges, then Reform see that weakness get even more critical as they would no longer have a monopoly on the far right. They could end up in a conundrum like the Tories and Labour before them. If you try to move your party more towards one direction, you lose people at the other end of your coalition. If Reform start peeling away to Restore or chase them and scare people back to the Tories, then suddenly expected Reform gains from Tories become toss-ups and this absurd electoral situation get's even weirder.
Given how hard Musk is interfering and pushing Restore, I think it's a massive concern for Reform and Farage. |
I listened to a podcast with Rupert Lowe - and Peter McCormak - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/
It started off sensible enough. But being outspoken as Lowe is, he stated that the use of AI to hollow out jobs in Law and Accountancy was needed as those people are 'leeches" and he says his friends are the Honest Blue collar workers. I was pretty shocked, crazy talk, dismissing entire professions like that. |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 13:25 - Jun 17 with 979 views | J2BLUE |
It's weight of money, not bookmaker opinion. If you put £10,000 on Reform then the prices with that bookie would move dramatically.
Hilary Clinton and Brexit were priced similarly on the day of the votes. |  | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 13:26 - Jun 17 with 980 views | positivity |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 12:54 - Jun 17 by MVBlue |
I listened to a podcast with Rupert Lowe - and Peter McCormak - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/
It started off sensible enough. But being outspoken as Lowe is, he stated that the use of AI to hollow out jobs in Law and Accountancy was needed as those people are 'leeches" and he says his friends are the Honest Blue collar workers. I was pretty shocked, crazy talk, dismissing entire professions like that. |
so this bloke called rupert, worked in banking, now a grifting "politician", thinks lawyers and accountants are leeches?!
born with a silver spoon in his mouth, bankrolled by a trillionaire, yet thinks he's down with "honest blue collar workers"?!
would be the funniest joke ever, if he wasn't so dangerous | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 13:32 - Jun 17 with 960 views | J2BLUE |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 13:26 - Jun 17 by positivity |
so this bloke called rupert, worked in banking, now a grifting "politician", thinks lawyers and accountants are leeches?!
born with a silver spoon in his mouth, bankrolled by a trillionaire, yet thinks he's down with "honest blue collar workers"?!
would be the funniest joke ever, if he wasn't so dangerous |
He could be very useful in splitting the Reform vote. | | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:05 - Jun 17 with 883 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 13:26 - Jun 17 by positivity |
so this bloke called rupert, worked in banking, now a grifting "politician", thinks lawyers and accountants are leeches?!
born with a silver spoon in his mouth, bankrolled by a trillionaire, yet thinks he's down with "honest blue collar workers"?!
would be the funniest joke ever, if he wasn't so dangerous |
Also ironic given those are the people paying his wages. MP’s are about as close to leeches as you can get since they live off taxpayers money. | | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:36 - Jun 17 with 811 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:05 - Jun 17 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Also ironic given those are the people paying his wages. MP’s are about as close to leeches as you can get since they live off taxpayers money. |
Bit harsh on actual leeches. | |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:52 - Jun 17 with 776 views | giant_stow |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:05 - Jun 17 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Also ironic given those are the people paying his wages. MP’s are about as close to leeches as you can get since they live off taxpayers money. |
If you had anything to do with Yarmouth, you'd know what a great song and dance he makes of donating his MP salary to local causes. Personally, I'd rather have an MP who couldn't afford to do this. |  |
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:59 - Jun 17 with 746 views | Zx1988 |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:52 - Jun 17 by giant_stow |
If you had anything to do with Yarmouth, you'd know what a great song and dance he makes of donating his MP salary to local causes. Personally, I'd rather have an MP who couldn't afford to do this. |
The evidence he posted for this on Monday is more than a little circumstantial:
On the same basis, here's my evidence that I've taken a 5fer at the Gabba:
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:10 - Jun 17 with 715 views | Blueschev |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 14:52 - Jun 17 by giant_stow |
If you had anything to do with Yarmouth, you'd know what a great song and dance he makes of donating his MP salary to local causes. Personally, I'd rather have an MP who couldn't afford to do this. |
I love visiting Yarmouth, but that knobhead being the local MP really puts me off. | | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:17 - Jun 17 with 697 views | J2BLUE |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:10 - Jun 17 by Blueschev |
I love visiting Yarmouth, but that knobhead being the local MP really puts me off. |
What difference would it make to your trip? | | | |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:21 - Jun 17 with 684 views | giant_stow |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:10 - Jun 17 by Blueschev |
I love visiting Yarmouth, but that knobhead being the local MP really puts me off. |
I love it too and know what you mean - he seems so popular there it makes me feel a bit out of place. Still, its their gaff and all that. [Post edited 17 Jun 15:24]
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| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:23 - Jun 17 with 680 views | positivity |
| Looks like Starmer is getting a little worried on 15:17 - Jun 17 by J2BLUE |
What difference would it make to your trip? |
if you were rowing out at sea, he'd report you as an illegal immigrant and call the police (or maybe the nearest russian warship?) to pursue you! | |
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