| Something is going down in Portsmouth… 22:54 - Sep 6 with 13446 views | SitfcB |
But it’s not yet on BBC or Sky News…?
Why? [Post edited 6 Sep 22:54]
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 23:39 - Sep 7 with 1123 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 22:27 - Sep 7 by TownieRob |
Why would my evidence need to contradict 'all of the above and more? That's not how it works is it.. You made an assertion and supported it with a study that I actually went and read, and it didn't demonstrate what you hoped it did. That's the only reason we're here.
As I also mentioned, I did look further. The Danish study is far more relevant to the point I actually made. Denmark cut welfare for non-EU immigrants by around 50% and the research found net immigration fell by around 5,000 a year. When the policy was reversed, immigration increased again.
I'm not claiming that study proves every supposed UK 'pull factor' is real. It doesn't. It does however provide pretty relevant evidence that making a country more or less attractive can influence migration to that country. Which was my point in the first place.
Lastly, I don't need to spend my evening disproving every paper you can find via Google or AI. Perhaps sense check whether they actually support your position before posting them. It could have saved both you and me some time today. |
The Danish study seems flawed in relation to your point. It highlighted that the most sensitive groups to welfare changes were economic migrants and from countries with established links to Denmark already (e.g. people considering family reunification changing their minds and the like). The impact of welfare changes on asylum seekers fleeing persecution or war zones, etc., was minimal and misrepresented by that paper (apparently according to critiques - https://www.econstor.eu/bitstr
Besides, there’s lots of relevant, current information that shows the actual asylum
Seekers coming here are to the UK are not coming for benefits. There’s evidence from official stats, UK Parliamentary Committee sessions, academic papers. Lots of evidence showing welfare benefits are not a main driver of migration. That’s of far more value than a tangential study from Denmark’s immigration environment. |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 23:51 - Sep 7 with 1093 views | balcombeblue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 12:48 - Sep 7 by Dubtractor |
My issue with that last paragraph is that it closes the door to genuine asylum seekers, trying to escape god knows what persecution or war.
I accept that judging genuine asylum seekers vs those just looking to improve their lot is tricky, and i have no suggestion on how to police it, but just closing the door because people don't meet a capitalism threshold doesn't work for me.
I tend not to get too involved in these threads, as it all gets too binary/tribal, and i think it is far too nuanced a subject for that. This thread has mostly been ok though, so here I am! |
I agree with your points here. What I’ve been finding tricky over the last 24 hours is “how many”?
Posters have been told it’s only a tiny proportion of the population. But is that really the case if the number stays where it is for many years to come? I genuinely have no answers to this. I want to see asylum seekers being integrated into the UK successfully. It’s very difficult to cut through the noise to understand the answers.
How is that possible to judge? How is it split by country of origin? Or age/demographics.
It’s far easier in the case of economic migrants, they come for jobs and opportunities, so to an extent its demand driven. |  | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:33 - Sep 8 with 960 views | StokieBlue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 22:27 - Sep 7 by TownieRob |
Why would my evidence need to contradict 'all of the above and more? That's not how it works is it.. You made an assertion and supported it with a study that I actually went and read, and it didn't demonstrate what you hoped it did. That's the only reason we're here.
As I also mentioned, I did look further. The Danish study is far more relevant to the point I actually made. Denmark cut welfare for non-EU immigrants by around 50% and the research found net immigration fell by around 5,000 a year. When the policy was reversed, immigration increased again.
I'm not claiming that study proves every supposed UK 'pull factor' is real. It doesn't. It does however provide pretty relevant evidence that making a country more or less attractive can influence migration to that country. Which was my point in the first place.
Lastly, I don't need to spend my evening disproving every paper you can find via Google or AI. Perhaps sense check whether they actually support your position before posting them. It could have saved both you and me some time today. |
I was interested in the study you highlighted as I hadn't seen it or at least didn't remember it.
After a quick look it seems that after subsequent analysis and peer review the conclusions were called into question:
"A subsequent replication critique by Joop Adema re-estimated the net migration elasticity of Denmark's immigrant welfare scheme to a maximum of 0.28 for new arrivals. The critique noted that the original high estimates were inflated by methodological flaws including ill-defined elasticity formulas, age conflation, and unaddressed origin-country shocks." [1]
This essentially means that the original study claimed that for every 1% reduction in benefits, the level of immigration fell by 1.3%. The subsequent analysis and peer review cited that this number was actually 0.28%, a significantly different result to the original conclusion.
SB
[1]. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstr |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:34 - Sep 8 with 947 views | TownieRob |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 23:39 - Sep 7 by Swansea_Blue |
The Danish study seems flawed in relation to your point. It highlighted that the most sensitive groups to welfare changes were economic migrants and from countries with established links to Denmark already (e.g. people considering family reunification changing their minds and the like). The impact of welfare changes on asylum seekers fleeing persecution or war zones, etc., was minimal and misrepresented by that paper (apparently according to critiques - https://www.econstor.eu/bitstr
Besides, there’s lots of relevant, current information that shows the actual asylum
Seekers coming here are to the UK are not coming for benefits. There’s evidence from official stats, UK Parliamentary Committee sessions, academic papers. Lots of evidence showing welfare benefits are not a main driver of migration. That’s of far more value than a tangential study from Denmark’s immigration environment. |
This is my last post on this thread for now as I really can't spend a second day going backwards and forwards as I have work to do. Judging by many of your posts I've read on here, you're clearly an intelligent and well-considered person, even if we disagree on this one.
One thing though, you (and many others) keep mentioning 'asylum seekers' as though everyone arriving and claiming asylum is necessarily here because they genuinely need protection. That's precisely what I'm questioning. There may well be some here who arrive that are genuine asylum seekers, and absolutely should be protected, but there are also economic migrants using and abusing the the asylum system. Even the UNHCR acknowledges that the asylum systems is being used by some people seeking to move for economic reasons and that those without valid claims need to be returned. Litterally in the last day or so, news has broken about the latest UNHCR concerns over the quality of UK asylum decisions, then we also had the Home Office whistleblower alleging widespread fabricated claims,.
So, as I have stated previously, protect genuine refugees. Absolutely. However calling everybody an 'asylum seeker' doesn't answer the question of why they're actually here. |  | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:47 - Sep 8 with 951 views | WestStanderLaLaLa |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 23:18 - Sep 7 by Kievthegreat |
Have we touched on some of the cowardly little sh1ts harassing the RNLI, calling them traitors and trying to doxx them on Twitter?
Over on X, the far-right British Patriots have launched a hate campaign against the RNLI
They are recording RNLI volunteers in order to dox them, reveal their identities and publish details of where they and their families live
These men are dangerous — Louis 〓〓 (@louishenwood.bsky.social) 2026-09-07T16:21:06.856Z
It's also a pretty quick way to make enemies of many local communities where the RNLI is far more popular than the Far Right — Alexander Clarkson (@aphclarkson.bsky.social) 2026-09-07T08:52:24.294Z
I'm sure those 'protesters' have very legitimate concerns, harassing and wasting the time of some of the most badass brave MFs around. I wonder if our resident Troglodytes agree with their brethren in Portsmouth? |
Outrageous behaviour. Whenever the RNLI hit the news like this it reminds me to donate https://rnli.org/support-us/gi
I can’t get my ahead around the numbers v the rhetoric
around 1% of launches are to small boats
17,000 arrivals this year, if follows previous years averages then 95% will claim asylum and 61% will be granted.
A population of 70,000,000 being invaded by 10,000 |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:16 - Sep 8 with 899 views | jayessess |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:47 - Sep 8 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
Outrageous behaviour. Whenever the RNLI hit the news like this it reminds me to donate https://rnli.org/support-us/gi
I can’t get my ahead around the numbers v the rhetoric
around 1% of launches are to small boats
17,000 arrivals this year, if follows previous years averages then 95% will claim asylum and 61% will be granted.
A population of 70,000,000 being invaded by 10,000 |
It is wild that in the midst of a masked gang of fascists blockading a port and attacking sea rescue volunteers (because they want people to drown!) the conversation has turned to "do they have a point?" rather than "what should be done about these fascist paramilitaries evidently forming up". |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:19 - Sep 8 with 884 views | Dubtractor |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:16 - Sep 8 by jayessess |
It is wild that in the midst of a masked gang of fascists blockading a port and attacking sea rescue volunteers (because they want people to drown!) the conversation has turned to "do they have a point?" rather than "what should be done about these fascist paramilitaries evidently forming up". |
Our news system has failed horribly in recent years. |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:29 - Sep 8 with 867 views | balcombeblue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:19 - Sep 8 by Dubtractor |
Our news system has failed horribly in recent years. |
I’m not sure about this. This is covered widely by various news outlets.
But two things can be held true at the same time. The protestors and their methods can be condemned, but the issues around why they are protesting can also be discussed. As was the case with ER and many other protests | | | |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:34 - Sep 8 with 857 views | naa |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:34 - Sep 8 by TownieRob |
This is my last post on this thread for now as I really can't spend a second day going backwards and forwards as I have work to do. Judging by many of your posts I've read on here, you're clearly an intelligent and well-considered person, even if we disagree on this one.
One thing though, you (and many others) keep mentioning 'asylum seekers' as though everyone arriving and claiming asylum is necessarily here because they genuinely need protection. That's precisely what I'm questioning. There may well be some here who arrive that are genuine asylum seekers, and absolutely should be protected, but there are also economic migrants using and abusing the the asylum system. Even the UNHCR acknowledges that the asylum systems is being used by some people seeking to move for economic reasons and that those without valid claims need to be returned. Litterally in the last day or so, news has broken about the latest UNHCR concerns over the quality of UK asylum decisions, then we also had the Home Office whistleblower alleging widespread fabricated claims,.
So, as I have stated previously, protect genuine refugees. Absolutely. However calling everybody an 'asylum seeker' doesn't answer the question of why they're actually here. |
You are correct that there are people abusing the asylum system. However, surely that just involves us processing applications better (rather than slowing them down, as the Tories deliberately did) as we can legitimately send those people back.
This whole thing becomes a moot point surely.
As for the current gangs, if people feel they are doing the correct thing, I do have to wonder why dressing and acting that way felt necessary.... | | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:37 - Sep 8 with 851 views | jayessess |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:29 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
I’m not sure about this. This is covered widely by various news outlets.
But two things can be held true at the same time. The protestors and their methods can be condemned, but the issues around why they are protesting can also be discussed. As was the case with ER and many other protests |
You are being naive. The guys in black piling out of vans are fascists, the "issue" they are protesting is the fact that we live in a multi-racial democracy. | |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:46 - Sep 8 with 824 views | TownieRob |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:33 - Sep 8 by StokieBlue |
I was interested in the study you highlighted as I hadn't seen it or at least didn't remember it.
After a quick look it seems that after subsequent analysis and peer review the conclusions were called into question:
"A subsequent replication critique by Joop Adema re-estimated the net migration elasticity of Denmark's immigrant welfare scheme to a maximum of 0.28 for new arrivals. The critique noted that the original high estimates were inflated by methodological flaws including ill-defined elasticity formulas, age conflation, and unaddressed origin-country shocks." [1]
This essentially means that the original study claimed that for every 1% reduction in benefits, the level of immigration fell by 1.3%. The subsequent analysis and peer review cited that this number was actually 0.28%, a significantly different result to the original conclusion.
SB
[1]. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstr |
That's interesting and thanks for sharing, SB. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you've posted, the subsequent analysis challenges the magnitude of the effect rather than the existence of it?
Reducing the from 1.3% to 0.28% is obviously significant, but 0.28% is still an observed effect. So absolutely fair to say the original study overstated the size of it, but the underlying finding remains.. welfare changes can influence migration levels?
Happy to be corrected if I'm reading that wrongly. | | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:53 - Sep 8 with 812 views | StokieBlue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:46 - Sep 8 by TownieRob |
That's interesting and thanks for sharing, SB. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you've posted, the subsequent analysis challenges the magnitude of the effect rather than the existence of it?
Reducing the from 1.3% to 0.28% is obviously significant, but 0.28% is still an observed effect. So absolutely fair to say the original study overstated the size of it, but the underlying finding remains.. welfare changes can influence migration levels?
Happy to be corrected if I'm reading that wrongly. |
I would agree that the conclusion from this single study is that welfare changes affect migration levels but it also highlights that a very significant portion of migrants aren't doing it solely to get benefits which is one of the narratives pushed in some quarters.
I think we would require similar studies in other countries and at different times and economic environments to form any firm conclusions.
SB | |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:57 - Sep 8 with 795 views | balcombeblue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:37 - Sep 8 by jayessess |
You are being naive. The guys in black piling out of vans are fascists, the "issue" they are protesting is the fact that we live in a multi-racial democracy. |
The vast majority of concerns around immigration are not held by fascists though. Fortunately, fascism and the far right have never been significant political forces in the UK beyond a few. | | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 08:07 - Sep 8 with 779 views | jayessess |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:57 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
The vast majority of concerns around immigration are not held by fascists though. Fortunately, fascism and the far right have never been significant political forces in the UK beyond a few. |
This incident.
The Dover blockade.
This fire in Glasgow: https://www.thenational.scot/n
The successive summers of fascists attacking people, burning people out of their homes.
MPs like Rupert Lowe cheering them on.
When are people going to develop an actually appropriate level of concern? The complacency is incredible. [Post edited 8 Sep 8:19]
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 08:11 - Sep 8 with 754 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:57 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
The vast majority of concerns around immigration are not held by fascists though. Fortunately, fascism and the far right have never been significant political forces in the UK beyond a few. |
And yet Reform are still riding high in the polls.... | |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 08:39 - Sep 8 with 706 views | balcombeblue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 08:11 - Sep 8 by redrickstuhaart |
And yet Reform are still riding high in the polls.... |
Reform are not fascist by any sensible or accepted definition. Neither, I would suggest are the vast majority of that are supporting them in the polls. | | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 09:42 - Sep 8 with 647 views | positivity |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 08:39 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
Reform are not fascist by any sensible or accepted definition. Neither, I would suggest are the vast majority of that are supporting them in the polls. |
reform definitely have fascist elements within their ranks and amongst their supporters.
it's also worrying the effect that their outsized media coverage gets which normalises more outright fascist groups and individuals like restore/yaxley-lennon/danny thomas etc etc and gives them way more coverage than they deserve.
this in turn leads on to people being mobilised to protest (often violently) because they've been told lies (about immigration and small boat arrivals rising when they're actually falling) in the media. | |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:02 - Sep 8 with 629 views | baxterbasics |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 06:47 - Sep 8 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
Outrageous behaviour. Whenever the RNLI hit the news like this it reminds me to donate https://rnli.org/support-us/gi
I can’t get my ahead around the numbers v the rhetoric
around 1% of launches are to small boats
17,000 arrivals this year, if follows previous years averages then 95% will claim asylum and 61% will be granted.
A population of 70,000,000 being invaded by 10,000 |
What you've highlighted here is something I've believed for a while: the issue of small boats crossing the channel is actually a red herring when it comes to the broader discussion of immigration and how it's transformed many British towns and cities over the last 30 years or so. It's mostly legal immigration that has caused this, for better or worse (and there are arguments both ways). That's the discussion we (media, government) should be focussing on.
The small boats and asylum claims are really just a small piece of the puzzle, and garner disproportionate attention. |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:11 - Sep 8 with 597 views | DJR |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:02 - Sep 8 by baxterbasics |
What you've highlighted here is something I've believed for a while: the issue of small boats crossing the channel is actually a red herring when it comes to the broader discussion of immigration and how it's transformed many British towns and cities over the last 30 years or so. It's mostly legal immigration that has caused this, for better or worse (and there are arguments both ways). That's the discussion we (media, government) should be focussing on.
The small boats and asylum claims are really just a small piece of the puzzle, and garner disproportionate attention. |
That is true but it seems impossible to have a rational debate given the following which is no doubt driven by both misinformation and the disproportionate attention.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/artic
"Are more migrants in the UK legally or illegally?
Key to understanding this finding is the belief among the public that immigration to the UK is primarily ‘illegal’ rather than ‘legal’. Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.
Crucially, this view is held by 72% of those who want to see mass removals. However, these perceptions appear to be wide of the mark.
Estimates of the population of illegal migrants living in the UK range from 120,000 to 1.3 million, with Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf recently putting the figure at 1.2 million.
Regardless of which figure from this range is chosen, it does not come close to the number of migrants living in the UK legally, with 2021/2022 census data putting the entire foreign-born population of the UK at 10.7 million."
I might add that I am one of those who is foreign-born.  [Post edited 8 Sep 10:14]
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:18 - Sep 8 with 569 views | balcombeblue |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 09:42 - Sep 8 by positivity |
reform definitely have fascist elements within their ranks and amongst their supporters.
it's also worrying the effect that their outsized media coverage gets which normalises more outright fascist groups and individuals like restore/yaxley-lennon/danny thomas etc etc and gives them way more coverage than they deserve.
this in turn leads on to people being mobilised to protest (often violently) because they've been told lies (about immigration and small boat arrivals rising when they're actually falling) in the media. |
I think the language is quite important on this issue, despite not being a Reform voter/supporter myself. They are far more aligned to right-wing populism IMO.
Some fascist traits include:
Elections: Not accepting election results. Reform's leadership has never pushed this narrative.
Violence: They have never advocated violence, stating many times it's a red line. Farage has been subjected to this himself and of course, Anne Widdecombe
Paramilitary wings: They don't have one.
Ethno-nationalism: Not much evidence here, although clearly they attract some racist voters. Is there any evidence of ethno-nationalism though?
Press Freedom: There may be more of a point here, Reform are very critical of certain media outlets and Farage in particular has boycotted the BBC at times. Having said that, media boycotts and avoiding scrutiny is not his sole preserve. Sadiq Khan being a good example given his lamentable performance in the GLA.
Law and Order: They are mostly aligned to standard right-wing thought.
Economy: They are strongly economically liberal and pro de-regulation, both are in contrast to fasicsm
Anti-Intellectualism: There are some fits to this, with their opposition to woke culture. | | | |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:23 - Sep 8 with 550 views | bartyg |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 07:29 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
I’m not sure about this. This is covered widely by various news outlets.
But two things can be held true at the same time. The protestors and their methods can be condemned, but the issues around why they are protesting can also be discussed. As was the case with ER and many other protests |
We have wall to wall coverage of immigration already, what are they highlighting? |  |
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:29 - Sep 8 with 508 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:18 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
I think the language is quite important on this issue, despite not being a Reform voter/supporter myself. They are far more aligned to right-wing populism IMO.
Some fascist traits include:
Elections: Not accepting election results. Reform's leadership has never pushed this narrative.
Violence: They have never advocated violence, stating many times it's a red line. Farage has been subjected to this himself and of course, Anne Widdecombe
Paramilitary wings: They don't have one.
Ethno-nationalism: Not much evidence here, although clearly they attract some racist voters. Is there any evidence of ethno-nationalism though?
Press Freedom: There may be more of a point here, Reform are very critical of certain media outlets and Farage in particular has boycotted the BBC at times. Having said that, media boycotts and avoiding scrutiny is not his sole preserve. Sadiq Khan being a good example given his lamentable performance in the GLA.
Law and Order: They are mostly aligned to standard right-wing thought.
Economy: They are strongly economically liberal and pro de-regulation, both are in contrast to fasicsm
Anti-Intellectualism: There are some fits to this, with their opposition to woke culture. |
Elections. Farage is a trump supporter. Also seeks to evade electoral regulations.
Violence. Cold hard rage. The women at the conference.
Paramilitary wings? Not yet. But again a trump fan looking to recreate his approach. And we have masked men in the streets fighting his cause.
Press freedom. He certainly avoids scrutiny and makes fatuous objections to it.
Law and order? Perhaps. Though they want the navy to dangerously turn dinghies around in the middle of the channel.
Economy. Absolute deregulation. Politicisation of courts etc. [Post edited 8 Sep 10:36]
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:30 - Sep 8 with 507 views | positivity |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:18 - Sep 8 by balcombeblue |
I think the language is quite important on this issue, despite not being a Reform voter/supporter myself. They are far more aligned to right-wing populism IMO.
Some fascist traits include:
Elections: Not accepting election results. Reform's leadership has never pushed this narrative.
Violence: They have never advocated violence, stating many times it's a red line. Farage has been subjected to this himself and of course, Anne Widdecombe
Paramilitary wings: They don't have one.
Ethno-nationalism: Not much evidence here, although clearly they attract some racist voters. Is there any evidence of ethno-nationalism though?
Press Freedom: There may be more of a point here, Reform are very critical of certain media outlets and Farage in particular has boycotted the BBC at times. Having said that, media boycotts and avoiding scrutiny is not his sole preserve. Sadiq Khan being a good example given his lamentable performance in the GLA.
Law and Order: They are mostly aligned to standard right-wing thought.
Economy: They are strongly economically liberal and pro de-regulation, both are in contrast to fasicsm
Anti-Intellectualism: There are some fits to this, with their opposition to woke culture. |
interesting, wouldn't agree with all that, but what i said is that "reform definitely have fascist elements within their ranks and amongst their supporters"
not that the party or its supporters was overwhelmingly fascist [Post edited 8 Sep 10:31]
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| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:34 - Sep 8 with 482 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Something is going down in Portsmouth… on 10:30 - Sep 8 by positivity |
interesting, wouldn't agree with all that, but what i said is that "reform definitely have fascist elements within their ranks and amongst their supporters"
not that the party or its supporters was overwhelmingly fascist [Post edited 8 Sep 10:31]
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Though notably a s a small parliamentary party they don't have the power yet to pursue the more overtly fascist stuff.And wouldn't show that hand until in power fully one imagines. | |
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