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I’m just trying to get my head around the figures in Italy. 15000 cases, 1400 recovered, 1200 dead so far!! I’m assuming there must be a lot of unreported cases - but that’s a huge % surely??
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 18:15 - Mar 13 by catch74
I’m just trying to get my head around the figures in Italy. 15000 cases, 1400 recovered, 1200 dead so far!! I’m assuming there must be a lot of unreported cases - but that’s a huge % surely??
Yes, but it also got into the healthcare system quite early, spreading through hospitals and putting medics out of action. Thus the system was quickly overwhelmed (and lots of already vulnerable people got it), which probably upped the death rate.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 18:58 - Mar 13 by Herbivore
Because, get this, EU countries can control their own borders in these kinds of situations. Imagine that!
I'm not talking about it from political or ideology sense I'm talking about it from saving people's lives, if all these EU countries believe locking down and stopping movement will reduce the spread and deaths doesnt it make sense for the EU to suspend free movement.
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 20:25 - Mar 13 with 3231 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 20:23 - Mar 13 by BloomBlue
I'm not talking about it from political or ideology sense I'm talking about it from saving people's lives, if all these EU countries believe locking down and stopping movement will reduce the spread and deaths doesnt it make sense for the EU to suspend free movement.
To be fair Bloom, I am what might be described as a "Reluctant Remainer" but any EU country can close it's borders anyway can they not?
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 18:15 - Mar 13 by catch74
I’m just trying to get my head around the figures in Italy. 15000 cases, 1400 recovered, 1200 dead so far!! I’m assuming there must be a lot of unreported cases - but that’s a huge % surely??
Yes but worth bearing in mind though is that in Italy in the winter of 2016/2017 it was estimated that there were over 24,000 deaths due to a flu epidemic.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:00 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Yes but worth bearing in mind though is that in Italy in the winter of 2016/2017 it was estimated that there were over 24,000 deaths due to a flu epidemic.
Can we stop it with the flu comparisons and whatabouterry. Virtually every expert you listen to or read says this is nothing like flu and far worse. The mass attention is to stop it taking hold like flu has.
That document cites 5,290,000 cases of flu. Given the mortality rate in Italy of Covid 19 that would be nearly 400,000 deaths.
So the constant comparisons are totally unhelpful and sow seeds of doubt. Everyone is trying to stop the infection rate being anything like what flu has.
SB
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:08 - Mar 14 with 2863 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:00 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Yes but worth bearing in mind though is that in Italy in the winter of 2016/2017 it was estimated that there were over 24,000 deaths due to a flu epidemic.
It was more the % that seems concerning. That was 24000 deaths from 5.2 million who contracted the disease. If the same number caught Cornoavirus it would be 100’s of thousands of deaths.
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:04 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
Can we stop it with the flu comparisons and whatabouterry. Virtually every expert you listen to or read says this is nothing like flu and far worse. The mass attention is to stop it taking hold like flu has.
That document cites 5,290,000 cases of flu. Given the mortality rate in Italy of Covid 19 that would be nearly 400,000 deaths.
So the constant comparisons are totally unhelpful and sow seeds of doubt. Everyone is trying to stop the infection rate being anything like what flu has.
SB
Calm your tits.
How can 1,200 deaths vs 24,000 deaths be much worse?
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:15 - Mar 14 with 2833 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:08 - Mar 14 by catch74
It was more the % that seems concerning. That was 24000 deaths from 5.2 million who contracted the disease. If the same number caught Cornoavirus it would be 100’s of thousands of deaths.
"If the same number caught Cornoavirus it would be 100’s of thousands of deaths."
Another thing to bear in mind is the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:17 - Mar 14 with 2823 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:17 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
You are missing the point on purpose now.
In fact, what is your point apart from spreading doubt and playing down the outbreak?
SB
Fragile very old subjects living in Italy, what do you make of this Stokie?
"The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.
Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80—89 years, 32·4% were aged 70—79 years, 8·4% were aged 60—69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50—59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%)."
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:24 - Mar 14 with 2771 views
I keep seeing random people/legit experts say that many more might have it but their symptoms might be so mild that they don't even know it. I appreciate that means it will spread further and will be particularly dangerous for the elderly and sick but for the general population would it not be a good thing if a significant percentage of cases are symptom free/very mild?
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:21 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Fragile very old subjects living in Italy, what do you make of this Stokie?
"The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.
Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80—89 years, 32·4% were aged 70—79 years, 8·4% were aged 60—69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50—59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%)."
I think you are drawing unhelpful comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu. Why you insist on doing this I have no idea.
Furthermore I think you are not using the same baseline figure to produce relative death rates which is fundamentally wrong as pointed out by 3 other posters.
You haven't even said what these latest figures are in relation to - flu or Covid? Either way I still have no idea what your actual point is.
SB
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:27]
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:27 - Mar 14 with 2747 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:24 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
I think you are drawing unhelpful comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu. Why you insist on doing this I have no idea.
Furthermore I think you are not using the same baseline figure to produce relative death rates which is fundamentally wrong as pointed out by 3 other posters.
You haven't even said what these latest figures are in relation to - flu or Covid? Either way I still have no idea what your actual point is.
SB
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:27]
If the experts thought it was that bad they would be taking drastic action such as shutting down infected areas and mass gatherings and …
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:24 - Mar 14 by StokieBlue
I think you are drawing unhelpful comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu. Why you insist on doing this I have no idea.
Furthermore I think you are not using the same baseline figure to produce relative death rates which is fundamentally wrong as pointed out by 3 other posters.
You haven't even said what these latest figures are in relation to - flu or Covid? Either way I still have no idea what your actual point is.
SB
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:27]
Sorry, i should have been clearer, the figures are regarding Covid -
"The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.
Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80—89 years, 32·4% were aged 70—79 years, 8·4% were aged 60—69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50—59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%)."
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:28]
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:38 - Mar 14 with 2691 views
possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:28 - Mar 14 by Bluesquid
Sorry, i should have been clearer, the figures are regarding Covid -
"The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.
Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80—89 years, 32·4% were aged 70—79 years, 8·4% were aged 60—69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50—59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%)."
[Post edited 14 Mar 2020 14:28]
Thanks for clarifying but I still don't know what your point is?
We know Covid-19 is bad for certain cohorts, does that mean that we shouldn't worry about it if we aren't in those cohorts and let the others die?
Can you please spell out exactly what point you are trying to make?
SB
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possible coronavirus cause for optimism? on 14:42 - Mar 14 with 2678 views
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