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That's not adjusted for the lag in reporting deaths at all. There is almost certainly a real decline, but nothing like what's suggested by that graph. The death statistics are pretty useless, the best measure of the progress of the disease that's publicly available is the number of patients positive in hospital.
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Some very encouraging news if true on 12:14 - Apr 27 with 1771 views
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:07 - Apr 27 by gordon
That's not adjusted for the lag in reporting deaths at all. There is almost certainly a real decline, but nothing like what's suggested by that graph. The death statistics are pretty useless, the best measure of the progress of the disease that's publicly available is the number of patients positive in hospital.
I find this guy very interesting fir charts on the delay between reporting and actual deaths.
Latest pivot-table for Saturday 25/04 at 2PM for NHS England hospital daily deaths on day they occurred, built up by day reported. Another massive catchup day with 209 of the deaths (30%) being from over 10 days ago. Deaths reported every consecutive day back to 20-Mar. pic.twitter.com/RT4SUNWZ6d
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:07 - Apr 27 by gordon
That's not adjusted for the lag in reporting deaths at all. There is almost certainly a real decline, but nothing like what's suggested by that graph. The death statistics are pretty useless, the best measure of the progress of the disease that's publicly available is the number of patients positive in hospital.
The daily number of people who are testing positive - bearing in mind they have now started testing NHS staff at drive-through centres as well as cases in hospital - as a five-day rolling average (to even out reporting inconsistencies) has fallen by a thousand between 14th April and yesterday.
Yep, saw that last week and it definitely looks to be the case for hospital deaths. It's less clear that non-hospital deaths are quite following that trend but 8 April - dreadful as it is - looks to be the worst day.
It will be interesting how that chart looks adjusted in ten days time. I suspect unfortunately the downward line which looks so positively will be a lot flatter unfortunately. I think we're looking a while yet until we can see deaths come close to anything which sees justification for an easing of restrictions.
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:20 - Apr 27 by Guthrum
The daily number of people who are testing positive - bearing in mind they have now started testing NHS staff at drive-through centres as well as cases in hospital - as a five-day rolling average (to even out reporting inconsistencies) has fallen by a thousand between 14th April and yesterday.
Yep, I think it's also possible to separate out the so-called Pillar-1 and Pillar-2 tests to get a more comparable figure, but it's still quite difficult to interpret testing data because we don't know enough about how testing is being scaled up - things like the geographical spread of new tests, how many of the additional people being tested are asymptomatic, etc.
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Interesting study on 12:34 - Apr 27 with 1618 views
Latest pivot-table for Saturday 25/04 at 2PM for NHS England hospital daily deaths on day they occurred, built up by day reported. Another massive catchup day with 209 of the deaths (30%) being from over 10 days ago. Deaths reported every consecutive day back to 20-Mar. pic.twitter.com/RT4SUNWZ6d
For these data it's important/interesting to know how volume of deaths affects reporting lag and whether that reporting lag is remaining constant across the epidemic, affected by other factors etc.
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:31 - Apr 27 by gordon
Yep, I think it's also possible to separate out the so-called Pillar-1 and Pillar-2 tests to get a more comparable figure, but it's still quite difficult to interpret testing data because we don't know enough about how testing is being scaled up - things like the geographical spread of new tests, how many of the additional people being tested are asymptomatic, etc.
However, in raw terms, if testing still includes the original cohort of "all those admitted to hospital with suspected symptoms" and absolute numbers of daily new positive results are significantly reduced, then it would suggest the virus is in retreat.
The extra tests of non-symptomatic people (e.g. NHS workers) are the icing on the cake, as that would imply either that very few of them were infected, or that there was an even more dramatic decrease in the number of symptomatic potential cases testing positive, or both.
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:28 - Apr 27 by Mullet
It will be interesting how that chart looks adjusted in ten days time. I suspect unfortunately the downward line which looks so positively will be a lot flatter unfortunately. I think we're looking a while yet until we can see deaths come close to anything which sees justification for an easing of restrictions.
Steve posted this just over week ago.
Some evidence that hospital deaths in the UK have peaked by Steve_M20 Apr 2020 15:42 Caveats apply as there is a lag in reporting and, obviously, that excludes non-hospital deaths but the figures for deaths by date of death, rather than by that of announcement, might be a cause for very cautious optimism:
Rising no of cases presenting to #PedsICU with multi-system hyperinflammatory state, overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome & atypical Kawasaki disease, bloods consistent with severe #COVID19 - seen in both #SARSCoV2 PCR +ve AND -ve
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:44 - Apr 27 by GlasgowBlue
Steve posted this just over week ago.
Some evidence that hospital deaths in the UK have peaked by Steve_M20 Apr 2020 15:42 Caveats apply as there is a lag in reporting and, obviously, that excludes non-hospital deaths but the figures for deaths by date of death, rather than by that of announcement, might be a cause for very cautious optimism:
The date for the 20th is on that link and follows the trend.
I’m on the move at the moment but somebody with more time can compare the two.
[Post edited 27 Apr 2020 12:59]
Yes, the trend for hospital deaths is holding, even allowing for the lags in reporting. I think I saw something about a group in Wales released last Friday with several days delay.
ONS numbers are out tomorrow, hopefully they follow the downward trend. There's still a lot of people dying though.
Rising no of cases presenting to #PedsICU with multi-system hyperinflammatory state, overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome & atypical Kawasaki disease, bloods consistent with severe #COVID19 - seen in both #SARSCoV2 PCR +ve AND -ve
Yup, this isn't good, there are other reports of patients getting Guillam-Barre Syndrome as well, I think. That's why it was so poor early on when SAGE were talking about allowing the virus to spread on a controlled way - for a novel virus where we don't know the long-term consequences of infection, the over-riding principle had to just be to minimise infections.
e.g.
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Some very encouraging news if true on 13:17 - Apr 27 with 1403 views
Some very encouraging news if true on 13:03 - Apr 27 by Steve_M
Yes, the trend for hospital deaths is holding, even allowing for the lags in reporting. I think I saw something about a group in Wales released last Friday with several days delay.
ONS numbers are out tomorrow, hopefully they follow the downward trend. There's still a lot of people dying though.
Very good point Steve, it is easy to get carried away every day and just see the numbers failing and think how good it is, then you remember each one is still someone dying and we are still having hundreds die every day.
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Some very encouraging news if true on 14:07 - Apr 27 with 1277 views
Some very encouraging news if true on 12:07 - Apr 27 by gordon
That's not adjusted for the lag in reporting deaths at all. There is almost certainly a real decline, but nothing like what's suggested by that graph. The death statistics are pretty useless, the best measure of the progress of the disease that's publicly available is the number of patients positive in hospital.
Surely that is exactly what it is, hospital deaths by their actual date, not the date reported.
[Post edited 27 Apr 2020 14:08]
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Some very encouraging news if true on 14:16 - Apr 27 with 1251 views
Some very encouraging news if true on 14:07 - Apr 27 by longtimefan
Surely that is exactly what it is, hospital deaths by their actual date, not the date reported.
[Post edited 27 Apr 2020 14:08]
Sure, but we don't know what the final figures will be for the more recent days - this graph is missing most of these deaths - it could be extrapolated easily enough though, if you assumed the reporting parameters remained constant.
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Tho this is not. on 14:36 - Apr 27 with 1208 views
Rising no of cases presenting to #PedsICU with multi-system hyperinflammatory state, overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome & atypical Kawasaki disease, bloods consistent with severe #COVID19 - seen in both #SARSCoV2 PCR +ve AND -ve
What this actually is and what it means, they don't know yet. It may or may not be related to Covid-19. But there have been enough cases presenting to cause concern.
Other than the same thing being reported in several sources, impossible to verify.
What this actually is and what it means, they don't know yet. It may or may not be related to Covid-19. But there have been enough cases presenting to cause concern.
Other than the same thing being reported in several sources, impossible to verify.
I thought i'd link this interesting article in this thread, i hope it's ok to do so.
Out of 2,300 prisoners in a prison in Ohio 2,028 tested positive.
"They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms."
"As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems – Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia – 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms."
“It adds to the understanding that we have a severe undercount of cases in the U.S.,” said Dr. Leana Wen, adjunct associate professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, said of the Reuters findings. “The case count is likely much, much higher than we currently know because of the lack of testing and surveillance.”
It's in this report on the BBC site....looks precautionary more than anything but clearly something to look out for if the young do contract the virus.
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Worrying - and to be honest something that was always in the back of my mind
Wouldn't say it's a cause for panic. It might just be an unusual set of symptoms in these children (some of whom are Covid-positive, as mentioned in the tweet). As Homer says, it isn't many cases, either.
There was never a suggestion that children were completely immune, just that they seem much less likely to catch it and more likely to be asymptomatic than adults.
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